- Dec 2024
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www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
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Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall.
for - question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x - what is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation?
question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x<br /> - What is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation? - If we have even less than 5 years remaining in our carbon budget, then how many years do we actually have to stay within 1.5 Deg C?
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- Sep 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
- for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
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highlight
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
- current climate models
- global carbon estimates
- IPCC
- the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
- the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
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question
- Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
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there are so many uncertain factors on soil carbon, ocean carbon, ocean heat, ice melt, biodiversity loss, biome tipping points.
- for: precautionary principle, fossil fuel phase out, carbon budget - uncertainties, carbon budget - underestimate
- highlight
- the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
- soil carbon
- ocean carbon
- ocean heat
- ice melt
- biodiversity loss
- biome tipping points
- implies that the any one of these can easily bring our remaining carbon budget down to zero.
- the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
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- Jun 2021
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Gugerty, L., Shreeves, M., & Dumessa, N. (2021). Biased belief updating in causal reasoning about COVID-19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/bfw76
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- May 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 18). @danielmabuse yes, we all make mistakes, but a responsible actor also factors the kinds of mistakes she is prone to making into decisions on what actions to take: I’m not that great with my hands, so I never contemplated being a neuro-surgeon. Not everyone should be a public voice on COVID [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1329002783094296577
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News, J. A., Kaiser Health. (n.d.). Why the U.S. Is Underestimating COVID Reinfection. Scientific American. Retrieved 10 February 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-is-underestimating-covid-reinfection/
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- Feb 2020
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about.gitlab.com about.gitlab.com
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Don't Underestimate a 1:1. Asynchronous communication (e.g., via text) is helpful and necessary. In some cases (e.g., to clarify misunderstandings) it can be much more effective to jump on a Zoom video call.
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