Der temperatur anstieg des jahres zwanzig dreiundzwanzig lässt sich mit großer wahrscheinlichkeit auf den rückgang der albedo der erde zurückführen punkt dabei spielt der rückgang niedriger wolken die hauptrolle punkt eine neue studie zeigt komma das diese veränderungen die null komma zwei grad temperaturanstieg erklären kommen die beobachtet wurden komme aber deren ursache noch nicht bekannt ist punkt der rückgang der niedrigen wolken bedeckung lässt sich zum teil auf weniger eu sohle zurückführen komma er könnte aber auch durch die globale erhitzung selbst verursacht sein komma also ein rückblicks effekt darstellen punkt Nun nun https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000248101/raetselhafter-temperatursprung-durch-rueckgang-von-wolken

Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280

Eine neue Studie bestätigt, dass die Hauptursache des immer schnelleren Anstiegs des Methan-Gehalts der Atmosphäre die Aktivität von Mikroaorganismen ist, die durch die globale Erhitzung zunimmt. Damit handelt es sich um einen Feedback-Mechanismus, durch den sich die globale Erhitzung selbst verstärkt. https://taz.de/Zu-viel-Methan-in-der-Atmosphaere/!6045201/

Studie: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411212121

Vorangehende Studien: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01629-0, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01296-7.epdf?sharing_token=CDMa5-ti34UNBqv3kfuCB9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NZRKXEI-7kyXEEvNI7duu65JLcZpmhGxWTeSfYcMCqxqYk5nUrdR60izmjToMNw56RgBqIcn3JXKxSjx13vmB9ZYndGTUMt-52Vs7HT_T6K9Oth4QFRyP51eOpz8pV8l65HFDo2VSfQ6xDXklMtmvt-HGwltAINb_2xgmtAR-V4g%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=taz.de

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - to - climate departure map - of major cities around the world - 2013

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

from - Nature publication - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/

for - question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure?

question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure? - Does the term "functional integrity" imply autonomy from climate feedbacks? Obviously, climate feedback plays a huge role in determining biodiversity health - In 2013, Mora et al. found that climate departure, the year in which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds will occur everywhere on the planet, regardless of an aggressive RCP pathway being taken. In this study, climate departure was found to take place (relative to 2013) - 37.5 years in the future under RCP45, or - 22.5 years in the future under RCP85 - It would seem that the biodiversity boundaries should take into consideration climate departure as species extinction and ecological system disruption is projected to occur, regardless of whether RCP45 or RCP85 is adopted. - Currently, we are still on a Business-As-Usual trajectory, but since 2013, scientific research has moved the danger threshold even lower so climate departure dates are likely even sooner than those calculated in the 2013 Mora paper

to - Mora, C., Frazier, A., Longman, R. et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540 - Researchgate copy - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability&group=world

Daten sprechen dafür, dass die Eisfläche um die Antarktis in diesem antarktischen Sommer noch mehr schrumpft als 2023. Am 7. September war die von Eis bedeckte Fläche kleiner als vor einem Jahr. Forschende sehen darin ein Anzeichen dafür, dass das ganze antarktische System in einen anderen Zustand übergegangen ist, weil sich die erhöhten Lufttemperaturen jetzt auch auf den Ozean auswirken. Zu den Folgen gehören Veränderungen der Strömungen und ein schnelleres Abschmelzen der antarktischen Gletscher. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/10/two-incredible-extreme-events-antarctic-sea-ice-on-cusp-of-record-winter-low-for-second-year-running

for - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al. - from - climate departure paper

from - The projected timeline of climate departure from recent variability - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projection example of recent energy trends

-absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projections - Energy growth has typically been 2–3% per year since early 1900's. - This is approximately equivalent to 10x each century - Present-day energy output is 18 TW and extrapolates to - - approx.100 TW in 2100, - approx. 1,000 TW in 2200, etc. - In 400 years, from today, we would exceed the total solar power incident on Earth - In 1300 years from today, we would exceed the entire output of the Sun in all directions - In 2400 years from today, we would exceed the energy output of all 100 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy - This last jump is made impossible by the fact that even light cannot cross the galaxy in fewer than 100,000 years. - Hence, physics puts a hard limit on how long our energy growth enterprise could possibly continue

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends

absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends - At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. - But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. - Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription.

Die Dürren der letzten 20 Jahre waren schlimmer als in den 2100 Jahren davor. Bericht über eine klimahistorische Studie, die von den Isotopen in den Jahresringen von Eichen ausgeht.

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00698-0

http://meetingwords.com/RCC30invitation

Zusammenfassender Artikel über Studien zu Klimafolgen in der Antarktis und zu dafür relevanten Ereignissen. 2023 sind Entwicklungen sichtbar geworden, die erst für wesentlich später in diesem Jahrhundert erwartet worden waren. Der enorme und möglicherweise dauerhafte Verlust an Merreis ist dafür genauso relevant wie die zunehmende Instabilität des westantarktischen und möglicherweise inzwischen auch des ostantarktischen Eisschilds. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-rapid-dramatic-change-hit-climate-scientists-like-a-punch-in-the-guts

Ein Strömungssystem im südlichen Ozean, das man mit dem Golfstrom im nördlichen Atlantik vergleichen kann, hat seit den 90er Jahren um 30% Intensität verloren. Die Folgen dieser Entwicklung können dramatisch sein, unter anderem für die Nahrungsversorgung von Lebewesen im Meer und für die Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/may/25/slowing-ocean-current-caused-by-melting-antarctic-ice-could-have-drastic-climate-impact-study-says

Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea

why don't the teachers look at this and see that the cause is racism?