10.1038/d41586-021-00290-x

It is clear that coronavirus vaccines are safe and effective, but as more are rolled out, researchers are learning about the extent and nature of side effects.

COVID vaccines and safety: what the research says

What we hear most often “talk to your health care provider if you have any questions/concerns on COVID19 vaccines” Vs Where many are actually turning to for COVID19 vaccine info This is also why it’s so important for the media to report responsibly based on science/evidence

Doctors @vanessa_apea and @crageshri busting myths about COVID-19 vaccination.

The head of NHS England said tonight that despite some progress the country remains in a “pandemic of disinformation” – in the effort to overcome vaccine hesitancy among some in the Black and south Asian communities.

Study suggests vaccine take-up at hospital trust lower among Black and Asian staff

This is great data about vaccine hesitancy, declining since 2020. There is a difference between the "wait and see" (31%) and the anti-vaxxers (13%). Of "wait and see", 37% are simply at "not first" and want to assess family/friends. In short, vaccinations beget vaccinations.

To all who claim that there's no evidence that #SARSCoV2 is transmitted in bars: If the risk of transmitting #SARSCoV2 is provenly greater in crowded indoor places, why should bars be magically protected? Burden of the proof is on bar's owners, not on scientists @BillHanage

Our pre-print publication on #COVIDVaccine hesitancy in health care workers. Vaccination rates: White 70% South Asian 59% Black 37% rates in Allied HCPs & administrative/exe staff vs Drs Urgently need to identify barriers & overcome these

When governments fail to ban outright falsehoods that endanger their citizens, they are neglecting their primary duty

Covid lies cost lives – we have a duty to clamp down on them

Hello! I'm briefly resurfacing from a glorious Twitter hiatus (to accompany an equally glorious book leave) to plug a few things.

One of the most powerful conservative celebrities is actively working against vaccinations

The Indian crisis is precipitating a global one. One-third of the world currently relies on vaccine exports from a single company in India. However, to meet the overwhelming domestic need, India banned vaccine exports, which means that countries in sub-Saharan Africa are now scrambling for vaccines—leaving their population more vulnerable to resurgences of the virus. Ayoade Alakija, a co-chair of the African Vaccine Delivery Alliance, told the Financial Times, “We’re at the point where we’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.”President Joe Biden must help, by removing patent barriers and making vaccine technology available to other countries.

Biden Has the Power to Vaccinate the World

The U.S. "has the chance to elevate vaccine manufacturing around the world, both by immediately making two @WHO–certified vaccine recipes available and...funding the infrastructure to manufacture even more of them." Spot-on @ChelseaClinton & Achal Prabhala

Another framing for this tweet: Wow, the US will soon be able to expand vaccine access to 12-15 year olds. Meanwhile, there are countries where healthcare workers treating COVID patients can’t access vaccines. What more can the US government do to support the global community?

And sharing this report from @joshmich and @jenkatesdc on actions the US government can take.

Another tweet on the same topic:

The imminent FDA authorization of a vaccine for 12-15 year olds is great news, and adolescents should be able to access vaccine. But in the short term, we must also grapple with the ethics of vaccinating adolescents ahead of high-risk adults in other countries.

1. This is "Politics For All" A strictly impartial political news account. It has more than 100,000 followers, growing fast and has been promoted by some influential people.

@julieleask @profrapp @roozenbot @PhilippMSchmid @GaleSinatra @emilythorson @ekvraga @LeticiaBode @lkfazio @JasonReifler @philipplenz6 @jayvanbavel @AndyPerfors @MicahGoldwater @M_B_Petersen @Karen_Douglas @CorneliaBetsch @ira_hyman @lingtax @annaklas_ @DerynStrange @adamhfinn

@olbeun @SciBeh @lombardi_learn @kostas_exarhia @stefanmherzog @commscholar @johnfocook @Briony_Swire @Sander_vdLinden @DG_Rand @kendeou @dlholf @ProfSunitaSah @HendirkB @gordpennycook @andyguess @emmapsychology @ThomsonAngus @UMDCollegeofEd @gavaruzzi @katytapper @orspaca 4/n

And of course… more myths have to be rebutted on our myths page: https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/misinfo_myths… (although it is good to see how many myths are just variants of older zombie arguments) 3/n

And then some updates to the page on the importance of cultural variables in vaccine uptake and attitudes: https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/vaxculture… Accompanied by lots more detail about public opinion: https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/publicattitudes… (quite a lot of data there now!) 2/n

Time for a fairly substantial update of severeal wiki pages accompanying the COVID-19 Vaccination Communication Handbook: First, the importance of healthcare professionals: https://c19vax.scibeh.org/pages/healthpros… 1/n

PS sanger website here: https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about PPS we should also keep doing all we can to help India and its neighbours cope with their ongoing horrendous surges. The situation out there is not getting any better even if it's dropped off the headlines. ditto S America

I think this data is saying "Take B.1.617 very seriously and surge test, contact trace, support isolation of cases & contacts, ring vaccinate - NOW". Then we can head off any potential trouble and have the summer we all want. 10/10

worst case is that vaccines less effective against B.1.617 and we need booster vaccines. I stress that this is *unlikely* - we need more evidence urgently but so far, looks as if our vaccines should work against it. BUT - should we wait around to take the risk? 9/10

a worse case is that B.1.617 dominates in London and then elsewhere like B.1.1.7 did before it and causes a new, limited, surge in cases until vaccination (and new local restrictions?!) can suppress 8/10

... and that this has caused complacency as everything looks fine, until, one day, it's not as new variants gain dominance. Now - best case is that we will vaccinate people fast enough & vax effective enough to prevent B.1.617 gaining dominance in London (or elsewhere) 7/10

YES, overall London numbers have dropped A LOT since Feb & there is no indication (yet) that they are rising. BUT we've seen rising variants masked by overall case drop / plateau before all over the world (esp spread of B.1.1.7 ("Kent")) ... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1389248460017209348?s=20… 6/10

Looking just at London, you can see how the dominance of B.1.1.7 ("Kent") has reduced over last few weeks. 5/10

Where is it spreading? Sanger lets you download data by local authority - I aggregated into region and combined together B.1.617 & its sub-lineages (B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3). It's mainly in the South & East of England. In London it was 11% of cases w/e 17 April! 4/10

Looking at each variant as a proportion of all sequenced cases the rapid rise of B.1.617 ("India") is crystal clear. Remember this data *excludes* traveller and surge test data. In week to 17 April it was almost 4% of all sequenced cases! 3/10

Data is available up to week ending 17th April. Firstly raw counts (excluding B.1.1.7 ("Kent") which is dominant) shows rapid growth of B.1.617 ("India") over last 4 weeks. S Africa (B.1.351) and B.1.525 variants are not growing in absolute numbers. 2/10

THREAD: Update on B.1.617 ("India") variant in England using latest data from the Sanger institute. This data *excludes* sequenced cases from travellers & surge testing so "should be an approximately random sample of positive tests in the community" TLDR: warning signs! 1/10

This is really concerning, and consistent with data from W. Bengal, and Maharashtra also showing growth of B.1.617 against a background of B.1.1.7 suggesting a possible competitive advantage. Not getting on top of transmission risks allowing this variant to gain in frequency.

PS - Contributions of more studies & links about B.1.617 for the 20A/S:154K & 20A/S:478K pages are welcome! I wasn't able to take as much time to look everything up as I would normally, so suggestions of anything I missed are super-appreciated!

Thanks again to everyone who messaged about adding the new variants (& everyone's patience while I got them in - it's been a busy week!). And as always, a huge thanks to @ivan_aksamentov - this time in particular, for the new name table & fancy side-sausage ! 7/7

Finally, previously mutations were shown at the top of each variant page, taking up a lot of space. This meant I didn't always display every mutation (which a few of you caught!) Now, mutations are shown down the side, ensuring a complete list while saving space! 6/7

Of course, S:154K & S:478K are also added to the front-page 'name table' (http://CoVariants.org) - which is now easier to read & dynamically resizes to fit your screen better! 5/7

And of course, both lineages are added to the 'Shared Mutations' table: http://CoVariants.org/shared-mutatio-mutations… 4/7

We can see the two lineages best in the India graph of the 'Per Country' page - with S:154K in brighter green, & S:478K in darker green. (Note sequencing may not be representative) They also show up in low numbers in some other countries. 3/7

I know this took a little time (thank you for your patience! ), but B.1.617 is now in CoVariants as the two sublineages 617.1 & 617.2, called respectively: - 20A/S:154K (has 484Q) - 20A/S:478K (no 484Q, has 478K) 2/7

CoVariants.org is updated, with some cool new additions: - B.1.617.1/2 are added as 20A/S:154K & 20A/S:478K - Beautiful new name table - Mutation list displayed in full as a "side-sausage" Let's take a tour...

Feelings about the vaccine are intertwined with feelings about the pandemic.

Millions Are Saying No to the Vaccines. What Are They Thinking?

by @apoorva_nyc

this truly is the blurst of times

doi: 10.1136/bmj.n1055

Wearing face coverings outside should be normalised because it may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in some situations—and may encourage mask wearing indoors, where risks are greater—say Babak Javid, Dirk Bassler, and Manuel B Bryant. But Muge Cevik, Zeynep Tufekci, and Stefan Baral argue that outdoor transmission contributes very little to overall infection rates and that efforts should focus on reducing indoor transmission

Should masks be worn outdoors?

Finally, there is a strong preference gradient among vaccines, in aggregate, for Pfizer > Moderna > J&J.

Knowledge of the pause was _very_ high; 74% of respondents correctly agreed with a statement that a pause had occurred (vs 6% disagree).

Here is a detailed breakdown of vaccine enthusiasm/resistance, just looking at 1100 repeat respondents from right before and after the pause. (Just sampling unvaccinated respondents from right before.)

3) But the number of vaccine resistant & strongly hesitant people was pretty stable. So: we are starting to run out of vaccine leaning people to vaccinate, hence we should expect a continued decline in daily vaccination rates...

2) If we zoom in on a small panel of unvaccinated respondents from right before to right after, we can see the shift of vaccine enthusiasts and mildly hesitant individuals to vaccinated. (For interactive version of this graphic, go to: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/5957021/…)

1) There is no evidence of significant changes in vaccine enthusiasm before/during pause/after pause.

What impact did the J&J pause have on vaccine attitudes? See http://COVIDstates.org latest report. The pause happened just as we were in the field, so we were well positioned to evaluate. A few key take aways:

https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab259

Indirect Protection by Reducing Transmission: Ending the Pandemic with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccinatio

Allowing the fully vaccinated to enjoy more freedoms could stoke social division, say experts

Scientists urge caution after Tony Blair backs UK ‘Covid pass’

https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01359-3

Preliminary results from a trial of more than 600 people are the first to show the benefits of combining different vaccines.

Mix-and-match COVID vaccines trigger potent immune response

This week we look at whyWestern public health went all-in on their campaign against masks before the abrupt change of course.

The "noble lie" on masks probably wasn't a lie

Confirmed Detection of B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 in South Africa by NGS-SA This report was sent to our Health Minister @DrZweliMkhize yesterday. In this Twitter thread, we highlight the details and repercussion of the discovery to South Africa

The @PHE_uk Variant Technical Briefing 10 now published Confirms B.1.617.2 upgraded to a VOC due to transmissibility concerns (at least as infectious as B.1.1.7) and steep rises in case numbers

THE covid-19 pandemic has entered a dangerous new phase, with new variants spreading widely and overwhelming healthcare systems in some countries, such as India. Vaccines promise to bring an end to the pandemic, but with supplies still severely limited, many believe we need to think more wisely about how best to use the doses we have.

What's the fairest way to share covid-19 vaccines around the world?

https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckv154

Background: During outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases, compulsory vaccination is sometimes discussed as a last resort to counter vaccine refusal. Besides ethical arguments, however, empirical evidence on the consequences of making selected vaccinations compulsory is lacking. Such evidence is needed to make informed public health decisions. This study therefore assesses the effect of partial compulsory vaccination on the uptake of other voluntary vaccines. Method: A total of 297 ( N ) participants took part in an online experiment that simulated two sequential vaccination decisions using an incentivized behavioural vaccination game. The game framework bases on epidemiological, psychological and game-theoretical models of vaccination. Participants were randomized to the compulsory vaccination intervention ( n = 144) or voluntary vaccination control group ( n = 153), which determined the decision architecture of the first of two decisions. The critical second decision was voluntary for all participants. We also assessed the level of anger, vaccination attitude and perceived severity of the two diseases. Results: Compulsory vaccination increased the level of anger among individuals with a rather negative vaccination attitude, whereas voluntary vaccination did not. This led to a decrease in vaccination uptake by 39% in the second voluntary vaccination (reactance). Conclusion: Making only selected vaccinations compulsory can have detrimental effects on the vaccination programme by decreasing the uptake of voluntary vaccinations. As this effect occurred especially for vaccine hesitant participants, the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy within a society will influence the damage of partial compulsory vaccination.

Detrimental effects of introducing partial compulsory vaccination: experimental evidence

Japan’s government moved to cool a social media furore by saying it was not looking to prioritise Covid-19 vaccines for Olympic athletes, dismissing a media report that said it was considering the option.

Japan denies planning to prioritise Olympic athletes for Covid vaccine

NEW: time for a proper thread on B.1.617.2, the subtype of the Indian variant that has been moved to "variant of concern" today by Public Health England. First, it’s clear case numbers from this lineage are growing faster than other imported variants have done in the UK.

Missed this yesterday, but excellent once again from John. Largely reassuring on B.1.617.2 as things stand

Many have argued that Covid passports – certificates showing whether someone has had the vaccine or a negative test, or has Covid immunity – wouldn’t work. In our recent Royal Society report, we concluded that they could be feasible in some cases, but only if they meet certain criteria. The crux is how and where these passports would be used.

Would Covid passports be damaging to public health?

Experts warned of damage to confidence in the UK’s vaccine programme after 10 million adults under 30 were told they will be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab following concerns over rare blood clots.

Vaccine confidence fears as under-30s in UK offered AstraZeneca alternative

After UK puts India on red list, US CDC tells citizens to avoid all travel to India. No travel ban yet, however.

Confirmed cases in India are rising very rapidly. • It does not appear to be an increase in testing, the positive rate has increased from less than 2% to more than 6%. • Deaths are also rapidly increasing. You find all metrics about all countries here:

The latest COVID data from India.

What did we as a community deliver for combatting the spread of misinformation? what did we get right? what did we get wrong? and what lessons did we learn in dealing with bad faith actors?

I'm starting the critical examination of the success of behavioural science in rising to the pandemic challenge over the last year with the topic of misinformation comments and thoughts here and/or on our reddits 1/2

Increasingly strong evidence shows that the UK's vaccination programme is breaking the link between Covid-19 cases and deaths, scientists tracking the epidemic have said.

Covid: UK vaccine rollout 'breaking link' between infections and death

Italy, Spain and Belgium have joined other European countries in limiting the use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to older age groups as the EU struggles to agree common guidelines to counter expected public hesitancy.

Spain, Belgium and Italy restrict AstraZeneca Covid vaccine to older people

Surge testing has been expanded to four London boroughs as concern grows that the test and trace programme cannot contain a coronavirus variant that has shown increasing signs of vaccine resistance.

Concerns rise about spread of coronavirus variant in London

The P.1 lineage of the SARS-CoV-2 variant first observed in Brazil has driven a second wave of infections even in a region hit hard by the first wave.

More transmissible and evasive SARS-CoV-2 variant growing rapidly in Brazil

These last few months of waiting can feel agonizing. But there are steps you can take to manage the anxiety.

Vaccine FOMO Is Real. Here’s How to Deal With It

This below is a measured fact (not a model): In Alberta B117 cases are doubling every 7.5 days @jkenney @shandro cc:@CMOH_Alberta It's like a speedometer showing that you are speeding @ 200 km/h 1/

COVID-19 vaccine rollout: How do countries in Europe compare?

10.31234/osf.io/x2qv3

Susceptibility to COVID-19 misinformation--believing false statements to be true--negatively relates to compliance with public health measures. Here, we make the prediction that metacognitive insight into the varying accuracy of own beliefs predicts compliance with recommended health behaviors, above and beyond the accuracy of these beliefs. In a national sample of German citizens, we investigate metacognitive sensitivity, the degree to which confidence differentiates correct from incorrect beliefs. Bayesian and frequentist analyses show that citizens with higher metacognitive sensitivity were more likely to adopt recommended public health measures. Importantly, this benefit of metacognitive introspection into own beliefs held controlling for the accuracy of the beliefs. The present research highlights that insight into the varying accuracy of beliefs, rather than only the beliefs themselves, relate to citizens’ behavior during the pandemic

Insight into the accuracy of COVID-19 beliefs predicts behavior during the pandemic

10.1038/d41586-020-00502-w

Nature wades through the literature on the coronavirus — and summarizes key papers as they appear.

COVID research updates: Coronavirus antibodies last for months — if you have them