• for: progress trap

• progress trap: speed of vaccination

  • If the vaccine was imperfect and caused harm, it could have caused harm to 40% of three population in a short period of time.
  • the shorter the time for something to spread globally, the faster unintended consequence can spread and cause harm

• for: definition - enough vs feasible dilemma, double bind, progress trap

• definition: enough vs feasible dilemma

  • the changes that are actually required are not feasible to do
  • what is feasible to do is not enough
  • this puts us in a double bind
  • we need to have interventions that are BOTH
    • enough to solve these problems and are
    • feasible to execute

• for: progress trap - Kevin Anderson

• validation: SRG mapping tool, Indyweb

reply to u/FusRoDaahh at https://www.reddit.com/r/commonplacebook/comments/188j2xt/getting_over_the_fear_of_perfection/

I had this problem too, but eventually switched to keeping my commonplace entirely on index cards, which also allows me to move them around and re-arrange them as necessary or when useful. (It also fixed some of my indexing problems.)

The side benefit is that if I botch a single card, no sweat, just pull out a new one and start over! If you like the higher end stationery scene afforded in notebooks, then take a look at Clairfontaine's bristol cards from Exacompta which are lush and come in a variety of sizes, colors, and rulings. (They're roughly equivalent to the cost per square meter of paper you'll find in finer notebooks like Leuchtturm, Hobonichi, Moleskine, etc., though some of the less expensive index cards still do well with many writing instruments.) Most of their card sizes are just about perfect for capturing the sorts of entries that one might wish to commonplace.

Once you've been at it a while, if you want to keep up with the luxe route that some notebook practices allow, then find yourself a classy looking box to store them all in to make your neighbors jealous. My card indexes bring me more joy than any notebook ever did.

When penmanship becomes a problem, then you can fix it by printing your cards, or (even better in my opinion), typing them on your vintage Smith-Corona Clipper.

And of course the first thing one could type out on their first card and file it at the front where you can see it every day:

"Le mieux est le mortel ennemi du bien" (The better is the mortal enemy of the good).<br /> — Montesquieu, in Pensées, 1726

aka "Don't let perfection be the enemy of the good."

• for: progress trap - free market, example - government policy - why it's needed

• for: Progress trap - mouthwash, mouthwash - blood pressure

• for: example - complexity - automobile, example - progress trap - automobile

this is a good start at a definition of teaching

• for: progress trap, moloch - progress trap, progress trap - Moloch
• comment
  • This explanation leaves out one variable that defines the progress trap
    • https://hyp.is/6Lb6Uv5NEe2ZerOrftOHfA/www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/321797-a-short-history-of-progress

• for: progress trap

• comment

  • this is similar to the Deep Humanity, contextual preamble that introduces progress traps.

• for: holism, progress trap, double bind, SDG failure

• comment

  • In the current silo'd approach typified by the SDGs, unintended consequences, or progress traps are unavoidable and are built into the approach itself.

• for: definition, definition - double bind

• definition: double bind

  • the definition of a double bind is that you have a problem (a bind) in one context and you can't actually solve it in that context because it's caught in another context
  • Gregory Bateson defined the double bind as an evolutionary trait of species due to their changing nature.
    • Since individuals of a species are constantly changing, there comes a day when all that it knows what to do in order to survive is outdated due to the changing environment. When it repeats the old behavior that served its survival in the past, it dies.

• comment

  • adjacency
    • between
      • double bind
      • progress trap
  • adjacency statement
    • progress traps are related to double binds because in a progress trap, an implemented solution to a problem in one context gives rise to a new problem in another context.
    • the original problem (bind) in one context appears to be resolvable but actual isn't. Future unfolding of the implemented solution unfold a future unexpected problem.
    • The two problems are not simultaneously occurring as in a double bind, but time-delayed
    • both double bind and progress traps emerge from the same root of violating holism
    • in not grasping the implications of the emptiness of phenomena, we ignore intertwingled nature of reality, we circumvent Indra's meet of jewels at our own peril

• for: polycrisis, quote, quote - polycrisis, quote - Nora Bateson

• quote

  • every time we pick at one piece of those polycrisis we end up actually creating more problems in other contexts

• author: Nora Bateson

• example

  • climate change If we do, all emissions suddenly, we will create an economic crisis, then without money, a health and social crisis

• for: metacrisis framework, progress trap - metacrisis sensemaking

• comment

  • progress trap framing would help provide an overarching sensemaking framework

• for: progress trap, progress trap - climate change - zombie virus

• for: progress trap, progress trap - AI, progress trap - AI - writing research papers

• comment

  • potential fakes
    • climate science fakes by big oil think tanks
    • Covid and virus research
    • race issues
    • gender issues

• for: instant evolution, AI - instant evolution, progress trap, progress trap - AI - instant evolution, progress trap - robotics

• for: synthetic biology, progress trap - synthetic biology

• for: progress trap, progress trap - AI

• for: progress trap, progress trap - Aza Raskin, progress trap - internet, quote, quote - Aza Raskin, quote - progress trap, quote - progress trap - internet

• quote

  • Unless you've felt it, unless you've cried over the fact that we really thought we were making the world a better place with the internet... We 100 per cent believed that.

for: quote, quote Aza Raskin, quote - progress, quote - scientific progress and expanding perception

• quote
  • science progresses generally not because of a thing that we see
  • but because we increase our ability to perceive
• author
• Aza Raskin
• date: 2023

Watch the scale and scope of what you're doing. If you read a book and make a hundred highlights and small notes, DO NOT attempt to turn all of these into permanent notes. You might fell like that is the thing to do, but resist it. A large portion are small things or potentially useful facts that you'll likely never use again or would easily remember, particularly once you've read a whole book.

Find the much smaller subset (5-10% or less of the overall total of notes and highlights as a ballpark rule of thumb) of the most interesting and potentially long term useful ones, and turn those into your permanent notes. Anything beyond this is sure to cause overwhelm. Also don't think that your permanent notes need to be spectacular, awesome, or even bordering on "perfect". They just need to be useful enough for you.

If you own the books or keep your brief notes and highlights written down and need them in the future, you'll still have those to search/find and do something with later as a backstop just in case.

• for: annotate, annotate - social media, progress trap - social media

• source: connectathon 2023 09 23

  • session on social media

• for: unintended consequences, progress trap, progress trap - toothpaste, progress trap - fluoride

• for: progress trap, progress trap - REP, progress trap - Renewable Energy Prosumerism

-progress trap - commercialization - exclusion - instrumentation - projectification - Responsibilization and overburdening - Hidden systemic repurcussions

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, progress trap - new life forms, progress trap - bioengineering
• comment
  • this opens up a big can of worms. A general theory of progress traps (https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap) is urgently needed to systematically study the unintended consequences of progress.

• for: progress trap, AI, AI - care drive
• comment
  • the precautionary principle needs to be observed with AI because it has such vast artificial cognitive, pattern-recognition processes at its disposal
  • AI will also make mistakes, but the degree of power behind the mistaken decision, recommendation or action is the degree of unintended consequences or progress trap
  • An example nightmare scenario could be:
    • AI could decide that humans are contradicting their own goal of a stable climate system and if it's in control, may think it knows better and perform whole system change that dramatically reduces human induced climate change but actually harms a lot of humans in the process, for reaching the goal of saving the climate system plus a sufficient subset of humans to start all over.

• for: progress trap, progress trap - atomic bomb

• for: cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, CCE, bioengineering, novel life form, culturally evolved life, bioethics, progress trap, progress trap - bioengineering, progress trap - genetic engineering
• comment
  • cultural evolution, which itself emerges from biological evolution is acting upon itself to create new life forms that have no evolutionary backstory
  • this is tantamount to playing God
  • progress traps often emerge out of the large speed mismatch between cultural and biological/genetic evolution.
  • Nowhere is this more profound than in bioengineering of new forms of life with no evolutionary history
  • This presents profound ethical challenges

• for: progress trap, red fire ants, fire ants, progress trap - shipping, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - shipping

• paraphrase

  • Fire ants would be devastating if released in continental Europe and even more all around the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The cost for human economies and well-being would be enormous. Where they have been invasive, they have:
    • displaced native ant and other species
    • damage electrical equipment
  • A genetic analysis of the Italian ants suggests they likely came from either China or the United States.
  • In the U.S., the species causes an estimated $6 billion in damage each year.
  • The insects spread internationally via shipping, especially of plants and soil.
  • Red fire ants have been detected in imported products in Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands, but not as wild colonies.

• for: dualism, dualism - psychology, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - dualism in psychology, progress trap, progress trap - dualism in psychology

• paraphrase

  • The dualism of scientific materialism gives rise to one-person psychologies
    • and are arguably complicit in much of the psychological and social damage we are now recognising.
  • For instance, a good deal of the historical denial of the role of psychological and social trauma has been traced
    • back to the Freudian model’s almost exclusive focus on the internal world;
      • the actual impact of others and society has been, as a result, relatively ignored.
  • Modern psychiatry, which accepts the same philosophical model but changes the level of explanation, is just as culpable.
  • Likewise CBT, with its focus on dysfunctional thought patterns and rational remedies administered from the outside, also follows the same misguided philosophy.

• question

  • what are concrete ways this has caused harm?
• future work
  • perform literature review on case studies where Winnicott's approach has been a more constructive therapeutic one

for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - Elon Musk, progress trap - Elon Musk - comment - the US military, Ukraine military have to deal with the unintended consequence of a vital communication system that can be turned off without notice or warning - what if Putin calls up Musk and says to him: - If you don't turn the Starlink off when Ukraine tries to mount major attack on Crimea, I will launch my nukes - What will Musk do then?

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, playing God, Elon Musk - Starlink - Ukraine, Elon Musk- Crimea, Elon Musk - nuclear war, quote, quote - Elon Musk - nuclear war - starlink - crimea
• quote
  • How am I in this war?
  • Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars.
  • It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.
• author: Elon Musk
• comment
  • the Tech genius could not predict the progress trap of starlink being used by the Ukrainian army to send submarine drones to blow up Russian ships
  • so he was forced into a position of playing God

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, nuclear war, Elon Musk - Ukraine, playing God

• comment

  • Here, Elon Musk demonstrates how the most powerful technological leaders are themselves unable to predict the unintended consequences of progress.
  • This story exposes the power that no tech titan is immune to
    • making one dimensional decisions based on high dimensional information whose salient relationships can not be predicted ahead of time.
  • The dilemma of power - it is opaque and puts the fate of humanity in the decision of a few God-like individuals
  • Do 8 billion people really trust one man to decide the fate of civilization?
  • And yet, this is the kind of world that those in power continue to reify by consolidating their positions
  • The myth of dictators wanting to hold onto power at all costs goes beyond the sphere of politics

• for: debt trap, economic colonialism, progress trap, JETP, UETP, Invesitgate, investigate - JETP
• progress trap
  • in building out renewable infrastructure, these loans and grants may further increase debt to disenfranchised countries
  • then it is no longer Just energy transition but becomes Unjust Energy Transition Partnerships (UETP)
  • if not done right, JETP can turn into UETP
  • This definitely requires further investigation!
• investigate
  • whether JETP are REALLY JUST!

• for: fossil capitalism, progress trap, intersectionality, social norms, social norms - waste, externalization, capitalism

• title

  • Waves of Abandonment
    • The Permian Basin is ground zero for a billion-dollar surge of zombie oil wells

• summary

  • a story that illustrates the intersectionality of fossil capitalism
    • progress trap
    • exploitation
    • tragedy of the commons
    • fossil fuel industry
    • gold rush
    • externalization
    • fossil capitalism

• Comment

  • Yet another example of capitalism's tendency to externalize manifests at the most basic level.
  • The tendency to treat nature as an inexhaustable garbage dumping ground seems to be built into our culture's economic norms taught to us by most parents and society at large.
  • There are not enough parents that teach their children to love, respect and feel that they are an intrinsic part of nature.
  • The externalization our society teaches us in the form of destructive, widely-accepted social norms of waste such as::
    • having the concept of waste and garbage
    • garbage taken out once a week
    • waste bins everywhere
    • keep our backyard clean, but at the expense of trucking out our garbage to some unknown place
  • has been enculturated into us from early age

Making things messy from the start as advice for getting started.

I've seen this before in other settings, particularly in starting new notebooks. Some have suggested scrawling on the first page to get over the idea of perfection in a virgin notebook. I also think I've seen Ton Ziijlstra mention that his dad would ding every new car to get over the new feeling and fear of damaging it. Get the damage out of the way so you can just move on.

The fact that a notebook is damaged, messy, or used for the smallest things may be one of the benefits of a wastebook. It averts the internal need some may find for perfection in their nice notebooks or work materials.

• for: misinformation, disinformation, fake news, quote, quote - Greg Shatan, quote - misinformation, progress trap - misinformation, progress trap - digital technology, indyweb - support
• quote
  • The instinctual BS-meter is not enough.
  • The next version of the ‘BS-meter’ will need to be technologically based.
  • The tricks of misinformation have far outstripped the ability of people to reliably tell whether they are receiving BS or not
• author: Greg Shatan
  • lawyer, Moses & Singer LLP
    • not to mention that it requires a constant state of vigilance that’s exhausting to maintain.
  • I think that the ability and usefulness of the web to enable positive grassroots civic communication will be harnessed,
    • moving beyond mailing lists and fairly static one-way websites.

• for: gig economy, progress trap, unintended consequence, quote, quote - unintended consequence, quote - progress trap, quote James Mickens
• quote
  • the gig economy is enabled by technology;
  • technology finds buyers for workers and their services.
  • However, given the choice between
    • an economy with many gig workers and
    • an economy with an equivalent number of traditional middle-class jobs,
  • I think that most people would prefer the latter.
• author: James Mickens
  • associate professor of computer science, Harvard University

• for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, unintended consequence, quotation - unintended consequence
• quote
  • Technology and social innovation intended to overcome the negatives of the digital age
    • will likely cause additional negative consequences. Examples include:
      • the decentralized web,
      • end-to-end encryption,
      • AI and machine learning,
      • social media.
• author: Larry Masinter -internet pioneer, formerly with Adobe, AT&T Labs and Xerox PARC, who helped create internet and web standards with IETF and W3C

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, Indyweb - justifiication
• description
  • a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
    • in other words, progress traps
• comment
  • also a lot of rich material to justify the Indyweb's design ethos

• for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, quote Brian Southwell, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International

• quote

  • We are likely to make some gains in personal health, are likely to face some collective concerns in terms of environmental health and
  • are not likely to cope with the alienation and despair that is a part of a life lived largely online.
  • In the latter case, there is a disconnect between the long period of evolution that honed our humanity and
  • the short period of rapid technology change we are facing.

• author: Brian Southwell

  • director, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International

• for: quote, quote - Stowe Boyd, quote - progress trap, quote - unintended consequences, unintended consequences, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap
• quote:
  • Technological change is an accelerant and acts on the social ills like pouring gasoline on a fire
• author: Sowe Boyd
  • consulting futurist on technological evolution and the future of work
• paraphrase
  • In an uncontrolled hyper-capitalist society,
    • the explosion in technologies over the past 30 years has only
      • widened inequality,
      • concentrated wealth and
      • led to greater social division.
    • And it is speeding up with the rise of artificial intelligence,
      • which like globalization has destabilized Western industrial economies while admittedly pulling hundreds of millions elsewhere out of poverty.
  • And the boiling exhaust of this set of forces is pushing the planet into a climate catastrophe. -The world is as unready for hundreds of millions of climate refugees as it was for the plague.
  • However, some variant of social media will likely form the context for the rise of a global movement to stop the madness
    • which I call the Human Spring
  • which will be more like
    • Occupy or
    • the Yellow Vests
  • than traditional politics.
  • I anticipate a grassroots movement
    • characterized by
      • general strikes,
      • political action,
      • protest and
      • widespread disruption of the economy
    • that will confront the economic and political system of the West.
  • Lead by the young, ultimately this will lead to large-scale political reforms, such as
    • universal health care,
    • direct democracy,
    • a new set of rights for individuals and
    • a large set of checks on the power of
      • corporations and
      • political parties.
  • For example,
    • eliminating corporate contributions to political campaigns,
    • countering monopolies and
    • effectively accounting for economic externalities, like carbon.

-for: quote, quote - Jennifer Jarratt, quote - progress trap, progress trap, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, quote - unintended consequences, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap - quote: with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all! - author: Jennifer Jarratt - co-principal of Leading Futurists LLC

• for: quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias,quote - future of democracy, quote - tilting elections, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
• quote
  • The big tech companies, left to their own devices , have already had a net negative effect on societies worldwide.
  • At the moment, the three big threats these companies pose
    • aggressive surveillance,
    • arbitrary suppression of content,
      • the censorship problem, and
    • the subtle manipulation of
      • thoughts,
      • behaviors,
      • votes,
      • purchases,
      • attitudes and
      • beliefs
    • are unchecked worldwide
• author: Robert Epstein
  • senior research psychologist at American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology
• paraphrase
  • Epstein's organization is building two technologies that assist in combating these problems:
    • passively monitor what big tech companies are showing people online,
    • smart algorithms that will ultimately be able to identify online manipulations in realtime:
      • biased search results,
      • biased search suggestions,
      • biased newsfeeds,
      • platform-generated targeted messages,
      • platform-engineered virality,
      • shadow-banning,
      • email suppression, etc.
  • Tech evolves too quickly to be managed by laws and regulations,
    • but monitoring systems are tech, and they can and will be used to curtail the destructive and dangerous powers of companies like Google and Facebook on an ongoing basis.
• reference
  • seminar paper on monitoring systems, ‘Taming Big Tech -: https://is.gd/K4caTW.

• for: progress traps, progress, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, unintended consequences - technology, unintended consequences - digital technology, progress trap - quotations, quote, quote - progress trap
• title: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
• authors: emily A Vogels, Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson
• year: June 30, 2020
• description: a good source of quotations on progress traps / unintended consequences of digital technology from this Pew Research 2020 report on the future of the digital technology and democracy.
  • the Pew Research Center interviewed a lot of experts in the field
  • in particular, section 5 of the report entitled
    • "Tech causes more problems than it can solve" is quite salient for the topic of progress traps
  • The Indyweb actually addresses many of these problems:
    • https://opencollective.com/open-learning-commons/projects/indy-learning-commons

• for: quote, quote - Barry Chudakov, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
• quote
• paraphrase
  • Technology’s greatest contribution to social and civic innovation in the next decade
  • will be to provide
    • accurate, user-friendly context and
    • honest assessment of
      • issues,
      • problems and
      • potential solutions / comment - indyweb /
  • We are facing greater accelerations of
    • climate change,
    • social mobility,
    • pollution,
    • immigration and
    • resource issues.
  • Our problems have gone from complicated to wicked.
  • We need
    • clear answers and
    • discussions that are
      • cogent,
      • relevant and
      • true to facts.
  • Technology must guard against becoming a platform to enable targeted chaos,
  • that is, using technology as a means to
    • obfuscate and
    • manipulate.
  • We are all now living in Sim City:
  • The digital world is showing us a sim,
    • or digital mirror,
  • of each aspect of reality.
  • The most successful social and civic innovation I expect to see by 2030
  • is a massive restructuring of our educational systems based on new and emerging mirror digital worlds. / comment: This bodes well for Indyweb for education/
  • We will then need to expand our information presentations to include
    • verifiable factfulness that ensures any digital presentation faithfully and
    • accurately matches the physical realities.
  • Just as medicine went from
    • bloodletting and leeches and lobotomies to
    • open-heart surgery and artificial limbs,
  • technology will begin to modernize information flows around core issues: urgent need, future implications, accurate assessment.
  • Technology can play a crucial role to move humanity
    • from blame fantasies
    • to focused attention and working solutions.”

• for: corporate power, technology - capitalism, capitalism - exploitation, Danah Boyd, progress trap
• paraphrase
• quote
  • technology in the U.S. is caught up in American late-stage (or financialized) capitalism
    • where profitability isn’t the goal;
    • perpetual return on investment is.
  • Given this, the tools that we’re seeing developed by corporations
  • reinforce capitalist agendas.
  • Innovation will require pushing past this capitalist infrastructure to achieve the social benefits and civic innovation that will work in the United States.
  • China is a whole other ball of wax.
  • If you want to go there, follow up with me. But pay attention to Taobao centers.
  • We haven’t hit peak awful yet.
  • I have every confidence that social and civic innovation can be beneficial in the long run
    • with a caveat that I think that climate change dynamics might ruin all of that
  • but no matter what, I don’t think we’re going to see significant positive change by 2030.
  • I think things are going to get much worse before they start to get better.
  • I should also note that I don’t think that many players have taken responsibility for what’s unfolding. -Yes, tech companies are starting to see that things might be a problem,
    • but that’s only on the surface. -News media does not at all acknowledge its role in amplifying discord,
    • or its financialized dynamics.
  • The major financiers of this economy don’t take any responsibility for what’s unfolding. Etc.
• author: Dana Boyd
  • principal researcher, Microsoft Research
  • founder, Data & Society

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Doc Searls
• quote
  • What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip,
    • tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything,
      • including wrongly.
  • The only places where news won’t skew fake will be localities in the natural world.
  • That’s where the digital and the physical connect best.
  • Also expect the internet to break into pieces, with
    • the U.S.,
    • Europe and
    • China
  • becoming increasingly isolated by different value systems and governance approaches toward
    • networks and
    • what runs on them.

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - David Weinberger
• quote: I see no reason to think that the current situation will change:
  • Tech will cause problems that require innovative solutions and
  • tech will be part of those solutions.
  • Machine learning (ML) is right now an example of this
• author: David Weinberger
  • senior researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Jonathan Grudin
• quote: Can our fundamental human need for close community be restored or
  • will we become more isolated, anxious and susceptible to manipulation?
• author: Jonathan Grudin
  • principal researcher, Microsoft

• for: quote, quote - Esther Dyson, quote - progress trap, quote - progress traps, progress trap,
• quote: "If tech doesn’t contribute to solving some of the problems it creates, we are doomed"
• author: Esther Dyson
  • internet pioneer
  • journalist
  • entrepreneur
  • executive founder of Way to Wellville

• for: progress, progress trap, exponential growth - knowledge, exponential growth - technology, technology - exponential growth, US patents, patents, intellectual property -description: GIF graph of US patents from the start in 1825 to 2021

• for: transition, transition - energy, progress, progress traps
• title: The Energy Transition Is a Technological Revolution — with a Deadline
• subtitle: What historical transitions — from water wheels to semiconductors — can teach us about today’s energy transition.
• authors
  • Yuki Numata
  • Laurens Speelman
• date: Aug 10, 2023
• source: https://rmi.org/the-energy-transition-is-a-technological-revolution-with-a-deadline/

• for: progress trap, cumulative cultural evolution, gene-culture co-evolution, speed of cultural evolution, human genome project
• paraphrase
  • the human genome project took 10 years and cost 3 billion dollars
  • with NGS technology, 10 years later, the same job takes 1 day and costs $15,000 dollars

• for: indyweb, silos, emptiness - example, entanglement - example, progress trap
• paraphrase
• quote
  • all the problems I've mentioned are being tackled by groups of people
  • sad thing is those people are often operating in silos just concerned to solve their particular problem
    • not realizing that if they don't have the whole picture they may solve their problem
    • and cause problems in other places
• author
  • Jane Goodall
• comment
  • the Indyweb and SRG strategy is designed specifically to mitigate progress traps through radical collaboration built into the communication and information system itself.

• for: progress trap, sense of lack, the lack project, collective lack project, individual lack project
• key insight
  • progress, and the shadow side, the progress trap
  • is the collective lack project, that corresponds to the individual's lack project

• for: for: ecological collapse, overshoot, progress trap, progress trap - cultural evolution, ultra-sociality, Lotka's maximum power, gene culture coevolution
• key finding
  • paraphrase
    • In AET,
      • multi-level selection acting on the genome and
      • occurring in concert with selective and non-selective mechanisms acting on culture and technology
    • results in a species that is prone to
      • niche construction and
      • ecosystem engineering,
    • and the scale of these processes continues to increase as the population rises.
    • This increasing scale
      • coupled with human propensity for niche construction
    • leads to human unsustainability

• for: ecological collapse, overshoot, progress trap, progress trap - cultural evolution, ultra-sociality, Lotka's maximum power
• paraphrase
  • to Gowdy and Krall, the ultra-social nature of human groups allowed for a shift in the primary level of selection
    • from the individual level
    • to the group level.
  • Thus, “With the transition to agriculture the group as an adaptive unit comes to constitute a wholly different gestalt
    • driven by the imperative to produce surplus

• for: AET, Anthroecological theory, anthropocene - causes, ecological crisis - roots, overshoot
• paraphrase
  • Anthroecological theory (AET) hypothesizes that
    • human social and cultural evolution is the ultimate cause of the ecological crises currently damaging earth systems

• for: gene culture coevolution, carrying capacity, unsustainability, overshoot, cultural evolution, progress trap

• Title: The genetic and cultural evolution of unsustainability

• Author: Brian F. Snyder

• Abstract

• Summary
• Paraphrase
  • Anthropogenic changes are accelerating and threaten the future of life on earth.
  • While the proximate mechanisms of these anthropogenic changes are well studied
    • climate change,
    • biodiversity loss,
    • population growth
  • the evolutionary causality of these anthropogenic changes have been largely ignored.
  • Anthroecological theory (AET) proposes that the ultimate cause of anthropogenic environmental change is
    • multi-level selection for niche construction and ecosystem engineering.
  • Here, we integrate this theory with
    • Lotka’s Maximum Power Principle
  • and propose a model linking
    • energy extraction from the environment with
    • genetic, technological and cultural evolution
  • to increase human ecosystem carrying capacity.
  • Carrying capacity is partially determined by energetic factors such as
    • the net energy a population can acquire from its environment and
    • the efficiency of conversion from energy input to offspring output.
  • These factors are under Darwinian genetic selection
  • in all species,
  • but in humans, they are also determined by
    • technology and
    • culture.
  • If there is genetic or non-genetic heritable variation in
    • the ability of an individual or social group
  • to increase its carrying capacity,
  • then we hypothesize that - selection or cultural evolution will act - to increase carrying capacity.
  • Furthermore, if this evolution of carrying capacity occurs - faster than the biotic components of the ecological system can respond via their own evolution,
    • then we hypothesize that unsustainable ecological changes will result.

• for cultural evolution, speed of cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, progress trap, Freeman Dyson,
• comment
  • Freeman Dyson opines that cultural evolution of humans now determines the genetic fate of all species on the planet
    • and gives a warning of how human cumulative cultural evolution now has the potential to threaten, via genetic sciences to play God over biology itself -reference
  • Musician Yoyo Ma quotes Freeman:
  • https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2F2fBmGXqHvk8%2F&group=world

• for: cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, speed of cultural evolution, progress trap, Freeman Dyson, Anthropocene
• comment
  • while Freeman spoke to the direct dangers of genetic engineering,
    • he neglected to point out the broader threat of progress itself, which has already placed our species in the position
      • of playing God with the evolution of many species on the planet already, via the enormous impacts of organized human activity - ie. the Anthropocene

• for: human impacts, MET, major evolutionary transition, progress trap, human responsibility to life, CCE, cumulative cultural evolution, playing God
• comment
  • Very true, in fact our species is in the unprecedented position that
  • human activity, and specifically our cumulative cultural evolution (CCE) now determines the biological / genetic evolutionary future not only of our own species, but of all life on earth.
  • In other words, of evolution itself! -This is an awkward position as we have nowhere near the wisdom to play God and determine the future direction of evolution!
• References
  • Cumulative Cultural Evolution
    • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=cumulative%2Bcultural%2Bevolution

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, ecological realization, ecological awakening
  • claim
    • the idea that we need a profound, sudden and massive change in ourselves in a dangerous notion
    • comment
      • why?
      • it presumes we have a deficit as an ecological being
      • when in actual fact, we cannot be otherwise
      • so instead, our job is to awaken our already ecological nature
      • by this, we mean our deep, intrinsic ecological nature as ecological (interdependent) beings
      • we humans have a strange and very limited kind of interdependence, which is exploitative to other people and other species
      • we have to become aware of that culturally conditioned limitation

• for: progress trap

• example

  • progress trap
    • quote
      • Where we get caught is thinking that we can identify a static snapshot in an ecological process
      • and get control over it, we can enact something upon it,
      • and thinking that we can do that toward what has been perceived as a positive outcome.
      • Without recognizing that with all of these different organisms that are changing each other all the time,
      • we're actually going to make a mess. -author
      • Nora Bateson

• for Indra's Net of Jewels, progress trap
• definition
  • Muir Web
    • A diagram that shows all the relationships between species of a particular ecological habitat

• for: progress trap
• definition
• quote
  • progress trap
    • A progress trap is the condition in which we find ourselves when science, technology and industry create more problems than they can solve. Often inadvertently.
• author
  • Dan O'Leary
• source
  • https://www.progresstrap.org/2010/02/12/the-progress-trap/

• for: progress trap
• quote
  • Since humanity is a small product of nature, he can by definition not control nature. To believe that he can is a delusion.
• Author
  • Dan O'Leary

• for: progress trap, progress traps

• Tttle

  • Escaping The Progress Trap
• Author
  • Gordon Kubanek
• Source
  • Canadian Association for the Club of Rome
  • https://canadiancor.com/escaping-the-progress-trap/
• Description
  • Gordon Kubanek shares his review of Dan O'Leary's book, "Escaping the Progress Trap"

• If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d get:
  • an immediate rise in global temperatures of between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to the new study.
    • (For reference: The climate has warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.)
  • The warming would be concentrated over the major cities of the northern hemisphere,
    • close to where most aerosols are emitted.
  • In the hardest hit parts of highly-urbanized East Asia, for example,
    • the complete removal of aerosols would likely have a bigger effect than all other sources of climate change combined.
  • Temperatures in the Arctic could jump as much as 4 degrees Celsius – a catastrophe that would shove the region further toward a permanently ice-free state.

• Aerosol progress trap
  • a devil’s bargain:
  • Aerosols
    • are necessary for normal weather and
    • help moderate rising temperatures,
  • but they’re also killing us.
  • Turns out we have been unwittingly geoengineering for decades,
  • and just like in the movies, it’s gone off the rails.

• Title
  • Devil’s Bargain: Why Aerosols Pose a Deadly Climate Change Threat
• Author
  • Eric Holthaus
• Date
• Feb 8, 2018
• Source
  • https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/devils-bargain-why-aerosols-pose-a-deadly-climate-change-threat-126855/

• Title
  • One Billion Happy

• Author

  • Mo Gawdat

• Description

  • Mo Gawdat was former chief business officer at Google X, Google's innovation center.
  • Mo left Google after seeing the rapid pace of AI development was going to lead to a progress trap in which
    • the risk of AI destroying human civilization is becoming real because AI will be learning from too many unhappy people whose trauma AI will learn and incorporate into its algorithms
  • Hence, human happiness becomes paramount to prevent this catastrophe from happening
• See Ronald Wright's prescient quote
  • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goodreads.com%2Fwork%2Fquotes%2F321797-a-short-history-of-progress&group=Q2X5j1pR

• Singularity
  • will happen within the next few decades

• It is the immoral human being that is the real problem
• they will teach AI to be immoral and with its power, can end up destroying humanity

• Title
  • Mo Gawdat Warns the Dangers of AI Are "Happening As We Speak"
• Author
  • Piers Morgan Uncensored

• potential progress trap

  • in vivo, an animal body has a mechanism to turn off stem cells when they are growing in the wrong place in the body. This regulates the body to grow properly.
  • in lab grown meat, an artificial in vitro environment is created for the stem cells and they are encouraged to keep growing continuously (some critics compare this to cancerous growth)
  • for UNKNOWN REASONS, FSB seems to prevent the mechanism from turning off cell growth, no matter what animal food species.
  • the worrying thing here is that the scientific community does not know why FSB has this behavior.

• Question

  • What are the views of the regulatory agencies that have passed Lab grown meat on this subject?

• potential progress trap
  • FBS
    • Fetal Bovine Serum

• This is used for the growth of all kinds of stem cells, not just those from cows

  • We do not know the full implications of mixing FBS from cows with all other species

• Question

  • What are the views of the regulatory agencies that have passed Lab grown meat on this subject?

• potential progress trap
  • if the seed stem cell has some unknown problem
    • it will potentially be inherited by all descedents

• Title
  • Lab grown meat
• Author
  • Real Science
• Publication
  • Youtube video

• Question
  • where are the progress traps?
  • It's already meeting approvals in SIngapore and FDA in USA.
  • Where are the hidden problems? -
  • This article highlights some of the issues
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencealert.com%2Flab-grown-meat-has-a-big-problem-very-few-people-know-about&group=world

• sustainability life cycle assessment impacts
  • University of California, Davis (UCD), Holtville researchers performed a life-cycle assessment of current meat-growing processes
    • has not yet been peer-reviewed
    • findings are that cultured meat production could emit between four to 25 times more carbon dioxide per kilogram than regular beef and all its hidden costs, depending on the techniques used.
    • Pros
      • cultured meat uses less land than herds of cattle or flocks of sheep,
      • cultured meat uses less water and antibiotics,
    • Cons
      • laboratories to extract growth factors from animal serums,
      • growing crops for sugars and vitamins.
      • energy required to purify all of these broth ingredients to a high standard before they can be fed to the growing meat lumps.
        • energy-intensive, extreme level of purification is needed to prevent introducing microbes to the culture.
          • "Otherwise the animal cells won't grow, because the bacteria will multiply much faster,

• Title
  • Lab-Grown Meat Has a Big Problem Very Few People Know About
• Author
  • Tessa Koumoundouros
• Publication
  • Science Alert
• Date June 2, 2023

• finite time singularity

  • when the mathematical solution to the growth equation becomes infinitely large at some finite time

• comment

  • this is also salient for the accumulation of unresolved progress traps
  • the Anthropocene can perhaps be viewed as the occurence of finite time singularities due to unresolved problems arising from progress traps that innovation is too slow to solve

• "if we reverse this

  • if we have the best of us take charge
  • the best of us will tell AI
    • don't try to kill the the enemy,
      • try to reconcile with the enemy
    • don't try to create a competitive product
      • that allows me to lead with electric cars,
        • create something that helps all of us overcome global climate change
    • that's the interesting bit
      • the actual threat ahead of us is
        • not the machines at all
          • the machines are pure potential pure potential
        • the threat is how we're going to use them"

• comment

  • again, see Ronald Wright's quote above
  • it's very salient to this context

• comment
  • the machines are only coded to do what we tell them to do
  • Ronald' Wright's quote is very salient here
    • https://hyp.is/6Lb6Uv5NEe2ZerOrftOHfA/www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/321797-a-short-history-of-progress

• limited (machine) intelligence

  • cannot help but exist
  • if the original (human) authors of the AI code are themselves limited in their intelligence

• comment

  • this limitation is essentially what will result in AI progress traps
  • Indeed,
    • progress and their shadow artefacts,
    • progress traps,
    • is the proper framework to analyze the existential dilemma posed by AI

• "I think we are very good at honing in on the ways in which the world remains imperfect and there are ways in which it is egregiously unfair today but we discount the fact that so many of the gains of the last 100 to 250 years have been enabled by the Industrial Revolution have been enabled by harnessing the hubris of harnessing fossil fuels harnessing more energy from the environment allowing us to agglomerate in cities which when you do this when you collect all of people in a room like this you're actually creating a more powerful hive mind by bringing intelligence together so that it can share ideas at closer range and it can innovate faster and through that for all the trade-offs which are undeniable there's many negatives that have come from that we're very quick to Discount when we talk about future biomedicine very quick to Discount things like polio vaccines and the virtual eradication of that disease along with smallpox of the fact that we have got so many infectious diseases under control we struggle with the big Killers like cancer and heart disease at the moment those are sort of like the biggest Global threats um but through basic Innovations through Modern Sanitation through better housing all of which the Industrial Revolution enabled we have lifted so many people out of poverty and yes we created new tears of poverty but overall fewer people are living in abject poverty today than in the past we have the higher average global life expectancies child mortality is plummeted the fact that you can give birth by cesarean section rather than in the case of my mother giving birth to a dead child which is what would have happened to me because my umbilical cord was wrapped twice around my neck the fact that technology can intervene and bring us so many of these Spoils of modernity that we readily take for granted I don't know where there's obviously attention but I don't know at what point you say we want to hit pause or indeed we want to go backwards again the challenge sort of remains like we agree we're barreling on this trajectory if we're not going to get off it then we need to think about how we manage it as well as possible and that means we need to think about how AI becomes a healthy part of our world or indeed if it can cut it can we co-exist with AI"
• Comment
  • The progress trap is the great unseen elephant in the room of progress
  • when we understand how the limits of human nature create the shadow side of progress every step of the way,
  • it is then no surprise or paradox that we arrive at this place called the Anthropocene - where the climax of technological progress and - potential for complete extinction sit side-by-side
  • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&tag=progress+trap

• Comment
  • Mary echos Ronald Wright's progress traps

• Comment

  • Elise says
    • "there is this growing Chasm between
      • our Paleolithic brains and
      • what we're designed for and
        • the niches we're built to inhabit and this new technologically infused world that we're living in
    • We have changed our environment so rapidly and so radically and we have not kept pace with that change
      • so either we keep changing the environment or
      • we change ourselves to fit the environment and
      • I think the fact that we're consistently making these commodified decisions in which
        • we do expunge more and more of our of our Humanity in favor of profit
        • in favor of short-term decisions i
        • n favor of such abysmal thinking when it comes to complex systems like the human body
      • it is a testament to the fact that these brains are not built for this world and
      • we are not going to be adequate stewards of this system
        • that is now so complex that to keep it held together
      • you actually need a new form of intelligence beyond what we are"
  • Elise Bohan' statements perfectly echo Ronald Wright's famous quote on the nature of progress traps
    • “To use a computer analogy, we are running twenty-first-century software on hardware last upgraded 50,000 years ago or more. This may explain quite a lot of what we see in the news.”
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goodreads.com%2Fwork%2Fquotes%2F321797-a-short-history-of-progress&group=world

• comment

  • I think, however, that Wright would agree more with Mary and less with Elise in Elise's contention that
    • we need a new form of intelligence beyond what we are
    • applying progress to our own cognitive abilities
      • may create the biggest progress trap of all

• quote worthy
  • “To use a computer analogy, we are running twenty-first-century software on hardware last upgraded 50,000 years ago or more. This may explain quite a lot of what we see in the news.”
  • Ronald Wright

source: https://howaboutthis.substack.com/p/rethinking-the-notebook-snob-meets/comment/14924364

It can't be a good sign that an academic who has spent over a decade studying notebooks and note taking still hasn't found the "perfect" organization method.

reply to @AnthonyJohn@pkm.social at https://mastodon.social/@AnthonyJohn@pkm.social/110230007393359308

Perfectionism and Shiny object syndrome are frequently undiagnosed diseases. Are you sure it's not preventing you from building critical mass in one place to actually accomplish your goals? Can't wait to see the essay.

syndication link

In many ways this is the blight of the modern world.

Where there is a problem to be solved, there is a focus of attention Where there is a focus of attention, there is simplification of a complex system Where there is simplification of a complex system, there is a vast amount of knowledge relationships that is ignored Where this is a vast amount of ignored knowledge relationships, there is the potential for a progress trap

The systemic problem is the way our form of progress formulates problems and the inherent (over) simplification that comes with.that.

Key finding Paraphrase - So what does a conscious universe have to do with AI and existential risk? - It all comes back to whether our primary orientation is around - quantity, or around - quality. - An understanding of reality - that recognises consciousness as fundamental - views the quality of your experience as - equal to, - or greater than, - what can be quantified.

• Orienting toward quality,
  • toward the experience of being alive,
• can radically change
  • how we build technology,
  • how we approach complex problems,
  • and how we treat one another.

Quote - metaphysics of quality - would open the door for ways of knowing made secondary by physicalism

Author - Robert Persig - Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance // - When we elevate the quality of each our experience - we elevate the life of each individual - and recognize each individual life as sacred - we each matter - The measurable is also the limited - whilst the immeasurable and directly felt is the infinite - Our finite world that all technology is built upon - is itself built on the raw material of the infinite

//

// - To find a God that can kill Moloch - requires an understanding of the nature of progress as well - Relationship to progress traps - Exponential technologies - are technologies, and all suffer the same fundamental flaw - Progress is an expression of our cumulative cultural evolution - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=cumulative+cultural+evolution - which grows exponentially faster than genetic evolution - The problem of which is that - the shadow side of progress, the progress trap - - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress%2Btrap - is growing even faster, due to our misunderstanding of it, - allowing it to fester like an untreated wound - turning a minor condition, into a life-threatening disease - Human progress has always been a bungling two step forwards, one step backwards dance - the imperfections of progress are inherent - and baked into the innovation process itself - For we develop technologies based on what we know, or what is visible - but what we know is like the tip of the latent knowledge iceberg - and is always accompanied by a much larger hidden component of what we don't know - In other words, - finite and visible knowledge - is always accompanied by infinite and invisible ignorance - Design is based on intent, - a one dimensional, inherently myopic imagination - of a multi-dimensional reality - A problem is a one dimensional focus - on a small sliver of reality - A solution to the problem is necessarily - myopic and - one dimensional as well - Both problems and their (designed) solutions - are extreme simplifications of a complex system - Language itself is a way - to direct and focus our attention - to this aspect of reality - then that aspect - Thinking is reduced to parts, and never experiences the whole, undivided gestalt of reality - Out of this process - Progress traps are born //

In Other Words - AI researchers are calling on one another to find a higher value than growth and technological advancement, - but these values are absent from the humanistic perspectives that built the tech to begin with. - Therefore, it is of limited effectiveness - to appeal to ethics in the socio-economic growth framework that values growth above all things - that motivates AI research. - Deep down we probably know this, - which is why our nightmarish fantasies about the future of AI look very much like - a manifestation of Moloch, - a new god that cares nothing for us. - AI as Moloch is a mad deity, - that much like late stage capitalism, - can see nothing beyond consumption.

Title Reality Eats Culture For Breakfast: AI, Existential Risk and Ethical Tech Why calls for ethical technology are missing something crucial Author Alexander Beiner

Summary - Beiner unpacks the existential risk posed by AI - reflecting on recent calls by tech and AI thought leaders - to stop AI research and hold a moratorium.

• Beiner unpacks the risk from a philosophical perspective

  • that gets right to the deepest cultural assumptions that subsume modernity,
  • ideas that are deeply acculturated into the citizens of modernity.

• He argues convincingly that

  • the quandry we are in requires this level of re-assessment
    • of what it means to be human,
    • and that a change in our fundamental cultural story is needed to derisk AI.

• acknowledging and working with complexity
  • means implementing strategies
  • to deal with the changing landscape of knowns and unknowns
• We are always working with limited knowledge
  • we need to explicitly recognize that
  • and develop pragmatic strategies
    • to integrate the unknown into decision-making processes

5 principles for mitigating progress traps - 1) - a priori assessments of potential unintended consequences of policies - should be conducted by - multidisciplinary teams - with as broad a range of expertise as possible. - This would require decision-making - to flex around specific policy challenges - to ensure that decision-makers reflect the problem space in question. - 2) - policy plans made in light of the assessment should be iterative, - with scheduled re-assessments in the future. - As has been discussed above, - knowledge and circumstances change. - New consequences might have since - become manifest or new knowledge developed. - By planning and implementing reviews, - organizational reflexivity and - humility - needs to be built into decision-making systems (e.g., Treasury, 2020).

• 3)
  • given the scale of systems
    • such as the water-energy-food nexus
  • and the potential for infinite variety and nuance of unintended consequences,
    • pragmatism necessitates specification of boundaries
      • within which assessments are made.
  • It should be noted that this can in itself give rise to unintended consequences
    • through potential omission of relevant areas.
  • Hence, boundary decisions regarding
    • where the boundaries lie
      • should be regularly revisited (as per 2) above.
• 4)
  • unintended consequences identified
    • should be placed in the framework
      • with as much consensus among decision-makers as possible.
  • The positioning does not need to be limited to a single point,
    • but could be of the form of a distribution of opinions of range
      • of knowability and
      • avoidability;
    • the distribution will be indicative of
      • the perspectives and
      • opinions of the stakeholders.
  • If a lack of consensus exists on the exact position,
    • this can highlight a need to
      • seek more diverse expertise, or
      • for further research in order to improve consensus, or
      • for fragmenting of the issue into
        • smaller,
        • more readily assessable pieces.
• 5)
  • there is a need for more active learning
    • by decision-makers
      • about how to avoid repeating past unintended consequences.
  • To support this,
    • assessment process and
    • outcomes should be
      • documented and
      • used
    • to appraise the effectiveness of policy mechanisms,
      • with specific attention on outcomes
        • beyond those defined by policy objectives and the
          • assumptions and
          • decisions
        • which led to these outcomes.
  • Such appraisals could reflect on - the scope of the assessment, and - the effectiveness of specific groups of stakeholders
    • in being able to identify potential negative outcomes,
      • highlighting gaps in knowledge and limitations in the overall approach.
  • Additional records of the level of agreement of participants
    • would allow for re-evaluation with new learning.

• Example
  • insect for animal feed
    • as a example of knowable and avoidable unintended consequence

• Example of unknowable and avoidable
• The same insect problem above
  • can also be classified as
    • unknowable and
    • avoidable
  • in EU regulation (EC) No 999/2001
    • that does not distinguish between
      • ruminants and
      • insects,
    • in effect banning the use of insects in
      • aquaculture,
      • poultry and
      • pig feed

Title: Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

Abstract - Paraphrase - there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, - potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions need to accounted for. - “nexus” research is consistent with the above - it recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, - and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. - This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon: - how much is known about the system in question - and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. - The framework comprises four categories: - Knowable and Avoidable - Knowable and Unavoidable - Unknowable and Avoidable - Unknowable and Unavoidable - The categories are explored with reference to examples in both: - the water-energy-food nexus and - planetary boundary frameworks. - The examples: - highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and - explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. - The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used - to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward - secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, - avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

// - This paper is principally about - progress traps, - how they emerge, - their characteristics - as they morph through the knowability / avoidability matrix - and how we might predict and mitigate them in the future

// - This is the critical question - Looking at history, can we see predictive patterns - when it makes sense to stop and take questions of the unknown seriously - rather than steaming ahead into uncharted territory? - We might find that society did not follow science's call - for applying the precautionary principle - because profits were just too great - the profit bias at play - profit overrides safety, health and wellbeing

// - This is a good basic framing - for future basic research - on progress traps - Future paper would explore details in a much more granular way //

• Quote

• Wright points out that answering the first two questions
  • is the key to answering the third one

Paul Gauguin's painting: - Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where_Do_We_Come_From%3F_What_Are_We%3F_Where_Are_We_Going%3F#:~:text=Que%20sommes%2Dnous%20%3F,the%20themes%20of%20the%20Gospels%22. - Wright uses this painting as a appropriate introduction to his work tracing human progress because to answer the third question - where are we going? - requires answering the first two - where do we come from? - what are we?

• Ronald Wright gives his famous Massey talk on = progress traps
• The book
  • A Short History of Progress
• is based on a series of 5 talks he gave at the Massey Lectures
• All five talks are recorded here

google search for "Ronald Wright surviving progress"

Title: THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF TECHNOLOGY: SOLUTIONS, BREAKTHROUGHS, AND THE RESTART WE NEED

Title: The Unanticipated Consequences of Technology - progress traps

Society and technology's ever evolving nature means that some things get "built upon". And in some ways the things we built on are forgotten. Not dissimilar to how ancient Rome was not buried under earth and rock, but of more buildings and roads as the world moved forward.