We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 8th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession. Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones. As a result, we estimate the rise in the unemployment rate over the corresponding period to be surprisingly small, only about 2 percentage points. Third, participation in the labor force has declined by 7 percentage points, an unparalleled fall that dwarfs the three percentage point cumulative decline that occurred from 2008 to 2016. Early retirement almost fully explains the drop in labor force participation both for those survey participants previously employed and those previously looking for work.

Why has the UK done so badly on Covid-19? There are still no simple answersDavid Spiegelhalter

Britain tops Europe’s excess deaths league table. But it will take years to fully assess the effectiveness of national responses

One of the country’s most senior scientists has criticised government for the “shroud of secrecy” drawn over major decisions in the coronavirus crisis and urged ministers to be more open about the reasons behind their policies.Sir Paul Nurse, the nobel laureate and director of the Francis Crick Institute in London, said important decisions throughout the pandemic had been made in what appeared to be a “black box” of scientists, civil servants and politicians, and called for more transparency and scrutiny.

As the World Health Organization (WHO) baldly reminds us, “there are no specific vaccines or treatments for COVID-19”. However, trials of treatments are taking place. Some have shown promise in helping those infected by calming an overreacting immune system or targeting the coronavirus – either by destroying it or stopping it from replicating.

Which covid-19 treatments work and how close are we to getting more?

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 17 July 2020

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is the canonical model of epidemics of infections that make people immune upon recovery. Many of the open questions in computational epidemiology concern the underlying contact structure's impact on models like the SIR model. Temporal networks constitute a theoretical framework capable of encoding structures both in the networks of who could infect whom and when these contacts happen. In this article, we discuss the detailed assumptions behind such simulations -- how to make them comparable with analytically tractable formulations of the SIR model, and at the same time, as realistic as possible. We also present a highly optimized, open-source code for this purpose and discuss all steps needed to make the program as fast as possible.

Fast and principled simulations of the SIR model on temporal networks

UK: 119 new Covid-related deaths as PM says 'signs of second wave' in parts of Europe – as it happened

10.1017/bpp.2020.17

Policymakers are increasingly turning to insights gained from the experimental method as a means to inform large-scale public policies. Critics view this increased usage as premature, pointing to the fact that many experimentally tested programs fail to deliver their promise at scale. Under this view, the experimental approach drives too much public policy. Yet, if policymakers could be more confident that the original research findings would be delivered at scale, even the staunchest critics would carve out a larger role for experiments to inform policy. Leveraging the economic framework of Al-Ubaydli et al. (2019), we put forward 12 simple proposals, spanning researchers, policymakers, funders and stakeholders, which together tackle the most vexing scalability threats. The framework highlights that only after we deepen our understanding of the scale-up problem will we be on solid ground to argue that scientific experiments should hold a more prominent place in the policymaker's quiver.

How can experiments play a greater role in public policy? Twelve proposals from an economic model of scaling

What are epidemiologists, virologists, and doctors putting on their (and their families’) faces in day-to-day life?

The Best Masks for Every Situation, According to Health Experts

Although late-stage venture capital (VC) activity did not change dramatically in the first two months after the COVID-19 pandemic reached the U.S., early-stage VC activity declined by 38%. The particular sensitivity of early-stage VC investment to market conditions—which we show to be common across recessions spanning four decades from 1976 to 2017—raises questions about the pro-cyclicality of VC and its implications for innovation, especially in light of the common narrative that VC is relatively insulated from public markets. We find that the implications for innovation are not benign: innovation conducted by VC-backed firms in recessions is less highly cited, less original, less general, and less closely related to fundamental science. These effects are more pronounced for startups financed by early-stage venture funds. Given the important role that VC plays in financing breakthrough innovations in the economy, our findings have implications for the broader discussion on the nature of innovation across business cycles

Financial Distancing: How Venture Capital Follows the Economy Down and Curtails Innovation

Entrepreneurship, as reflected in the start-up of new firms, the growth and market exit of existing firms, and the ow of venture capital, has been severely curtailed by the lockdown and social distancing measures taken by governments around the world in the fight against COVID-19. This paper, after documenting preliminary evidence on these declines, argues that there is a strong possibility that the unintended damage to entrepreneurship, innovation and growth could be persistent. This requires that short- term economic and business rescue packages be complimented by measures aimed at the longer-term, and that these be based on at least five principles. These 5 principles (5Ds) refer to decentralization, democratization, demand, distribution and demography.

Entrepreneurial Recovery from COVID-19: Decentralization, Democratization, Demand, Distribution, and Demography

Cloth face coverings, even homemade masks made of the correct material, are effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 - for the wearer and those around them - according to a new study from Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.

Oxford COVID-19 study: face masks and coverings work – act now

Clinicians and GPs will soon be able to better identify patients who are at a higher risk of serious illness from SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a new data-driven risk prediction model, now under development by an Oxford University-led team.

Oxford leads development of risk prediction model for more tailored COVID-19 shielding advice

We examine effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment losses across metropolitan area status and population size. Non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas of all sizes experienced significant employment losses, but the impacts are much larger in large metropolitan areas. Employment losses manifest as increased unemployment, labor force withdrawal, and temporary absence from work. We examine the role of individual and local area characteristics in explaining differing employment losses across metropolitan status and size. The local COVID-19 infection rate is a major driver of differences across MSA size. Industry mix and employment density also matter. The pandemic significantly altered urban economic activity.

Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Metropolitan Status and Size

Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since – as of June 16, 2020 – they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre-treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.

COVID-19, Race, and Redlining

The industries that shepherd goods around the world on ships, planes and trucks acknowledge they aren’t ready to handle the challenges of shipping an eventual Covid-19 vaccine from drugmakers to billions of people.

The World’s Supply Chain Isn’t Ready for a Covid-19 Vaccine

The Canadian labour market is currently emerging from a holding pattern with unusually high numbers in temporary (or “recall”) unemployment, those “employed but absent from work” for unspecified reasons, or not in the labour force while waiting to be recalled. Two encouraging signs are evident. New postings of vacancies have recovered from 50 percent to about 80 percent of their pre-crisis level. Also, data suggest that the increase in employment in May 2020 is due to some of those waiting to be recalled re-entering employment. These patterns suggest that the labour market might rebound quickly. Warning signs are that the shares of the unemployed without job attachment as well as those on recall engaged in job search are beginning to increase.

Waiting for Recovery: The Canadian Labour Market in June 2020

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The paper provides new evidence from a survey of 2000 individuals in the US and UK related to predictors of Covid-19 transmission. Specifically, it investigates work and personal predictors of transmission experience reported by respondents using regression models to better understand possible transmission pathways and mechanisms in the community. Three themes emerge from the analysis. Firstly, transport roles and travelling practices are significant predictors of infection. Secondly, evidence from the US especially shows union membership, consultation over safety measures and the need to use public transport to get to work are also significant predictors. This is interpreted as evidence of the role of deprivation and of reactive workplace consultations. Thirdly and finally, there is some, often weaker, evidence that income, car-owership, use of a shared kitchen, university degree type, riskaversion, extraversion and height are predictors of transmission. The comparative nature of the evidence indicates that the less uniformly stringent nature of the US lockdown provides more information about both structural and individual factors that predict transmission. The evidence about height is discussed in the context of the aerosol transmission debate. The paper concludes that both structural and individual factors must be taken into account when predicting transmission or designing effective public health measures and messages to prevent or contain transmission.

Work-Related and Personal Predictors of COVID-19 Transmission

An interview with the man who has an important message for you, if he can get it out.

I Spoke With Anthony Fauci. He Says His Inbox Isn’t Pretty.

As health experts urge the public to wear masks to slow the spread of the coronavirus, they continue to get pushback. Among the arguments of skeptics: If masks can’t fully protect me against COVID-19, what is the point of wearing them?Scientists’ counterargument is that masks can help reduce the severity of the disease caused by coronavirus even if you get infected.

Wearing masks could help you avoid major illness even if you get coronavirus, experts say

As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand fatalities in the United States, with starkly different incidence by race and ethnicity. Our study examines racial and ethnic disparities in confirmed COVID-19 cases across six diverse cities – Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, New York City, San Diego, and St. Louis – at the ZIP code level (covering 436 “neighborhoods” with a population of 17.7 million). Our analysis links these outcomes to six separate data sources to control for demographics; housing; socioeconomic status; occupation; transportation modes; health care access; long-run opportunity, as measured by income mobility and incarceration rates; human mobility; and underlying population health. We find that the proportions of black and Hispanic residents in a ZIP code are both positively and statistically significantly associated with COVID-19 cases per capita. The magnitudes are sizeable for both black and Hispanic, but even larger for Hispanic. Although some of these disparities can be explained by differences in long-run opportunity, human mobility, and demographics, most of the disparities remain unexplained even after including an extensive list of covariates related to possible mechanisms. For two cities – Chicago and New York – we also examine COVID-19 fatalities, finding that differences in confirmed COVID-19 cases explain the majority of the observed disparities in fatalities. In other words, the higher death toll of COVID-19 in predominantly black and Hispanic communities mostly reflects higher case rates, rather than higher fatality rates for confirmed cases.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19: Evidence from Six Large Cities

With social distancing measures and face mask use helping ease lockdown restrictions, EU-wide coordinated economic stimulus could aid the recovery further. By focusing EU funds on countries hardest hit by the pandemic, the “Next Generation EU” package stands to improve outcomes for the single market as a whole.

How Europe can emerge stronger out of the coronavirus crisis

10.1126/science.abd2161

Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in the world. Owing to limited available data, assessments of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1–1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within-state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average travelled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil, and provide evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in the country.

Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

The EU’s counter-disinformation efforts should target advertising revenue on websites spreading COVID-19 disinfo

Op-Ed | Hitting COVID-19 disinfo websites where it hurts: their wallets

10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15997.1

Background: Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods: Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths. Results: We show that there was a substantial overall reduction in mobility, with the most rapid decline on the 24th March 2020, the day after the Prime Minister’s announcement of an enforced lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the UK. Although mobility has remained low since 26th March 2020, we detect a gradual increase since that time. We also show that the two different datasets produce similar trends, albeit with some location-specific differences. We see slightly larger reductions in average mobility in high-density areas than in low-density areas, with greater variation in mobility in the high-density areas: some high-density areas eliminated almost all mobility. Conclusions: These analyses form a baseline from which to observe changes in behaviour in the UK as social distancing is eased and inform policy towards the future control of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.

Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK

Scientists and journalists need to establish a service to review research that’s publicized before it is peer reviewed.

How to Identify Flawed Research Before It Becomes Dangerous

In January, after watching my hometown Wuhan crumble from afar as it grappled with the novel coronavirus, I thought I was better prepared for the pandemic than most people in the United States.Support our journalism. Subscribe today.arrow-rightLittle did I know that this country would struggle so much — or that six months later, I would contract the coronavirus, too.

I’m from Wuhan. I got covid-19 — after traveling to Florida.

10.1038/d41586-020-02070-5

As the current pandemic makes us ponder the future of cities, a book examines past rises and falls.

How did ancient cities weather crises?

RT @ObsoleteDogma: The U.S. is averaging more new covid cases than any continent is right now

RT @ProjectLincoln: Of course teachers and families are afraid.

After a weekend of customers who pushed, shoved, and crowded around the taps, Johnny McFadden put an electric fence around the bar at the The Star Inn. (There's also a bright yellow sign that says "WARNING: Electric Fence.") "It's there for social distancing," McFadden told Cornwall Live. "Before the fence, people were not following social distancing and were doing as they pleased, but now people take heed to the guidance around social distancing. It's for everybody's benefit."

Bar Installs Electric Fence After Customers Fail to Socially Distance

A Texas doctor says a 30-year-old patient died after attending a "COVID party," believing the coronavirus pandemic was a hoax.

'I thought this was a hoax': Patient, 30, dies after attending 'COVID party,' doctor says

As much of western Europe begins to ease countrywide lockdowns, globally the pandemic may still be in its infancy, with more than 160 000 new cases reported each day since June 25. Individual countries count cases differently, so direct comparisons are difficult, but the numbers illustrate a worrying pattern. At a subnational level the picture is nuanced, with local hotspots, but at a country level the picture is clear—the world is facing a worsening multipolar pandemic.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31517-8

COVID-19: the worst may be yet to come

10.1037/xap0000100

Science-related news stories can have a profound impact on how the public make decisions. The current study presents 4 experiments that examine how participants understand scientific expressions used in news headlines. The expressions concerned causal and correlational relationships between variables (e.g., “being breast fed makes children behave better”). Participants rated or ranked headlines according to the extent that one variable caused the other. Our results suggest that participants differentiate between 3 distinct categories of relationship: direct cause statements (e.g., “makes,” “increases”), which were interpreted as the most causal; can cause statements (e.g., “can make,” “can increase”); and moderate cause statements (e.g., “might cause,” “linked,” “associated with”), but do not consistently distinguish within the last group despite the logical distinction between cause and association. On the basis of this evidence, we make recommendations for appropriately communicating cause and effect in news headlines.

How readers understand causal and correlational expressions used in news headlines.

Social distancing and isolation have been widely introduced to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. Adverse social, psychological and economic consequences of a complete or near-complete lockdown demand the development of more moderate contact-reduction policies. Adopting a social network approach, we evaluate the effectiveness of three distancing strategies designed to keep the curve flat and aid compliance in a post-lockdown world. These are: limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts akin to forming social bubbles; seeking similarity across contacts; and strengthening communities via triadic strategies. We simulate stochastic infection curves incorporating core elements from infection models, ideal-type social network models and statistical relational event models. We demonstrate that a strategic social network-based reduction of contact strongly enhances the effectiveness of social distancing measures while keeping risks lower. We provide scientific evidence for effective social distancing that can be applied in public health messaging and that can mitigate negative consequences of social isolation.

10.1038/s41562-020-0898-6

Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world

Swedes rapidly losing trust in Covid-19 strategy, poll finds

Swedes are losing trust in authorities’ handling of the coronavirus, as the man behind the country’s light-touch approach called lockdowns a form of madness and political parties demanded the Swedish strategy be reviewed before the next election in 2022.

Almost one-third of black Americans know someone who died of covid-19, survey shows

Nearly 1 in 3 black Americans know someone personally who has died of covid-19, far exceeding their white counterparts, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll that underscores the coronavirus pandemic’s profoundly disparate impact.

Forced Social Isolation Causes Neural Craving Similar to Hunger

New research highlights the profound effect of severe social isolation on the brain

Leicester economist: our city was vulnerable to a coronavirus outbreak

Leicester has been placed under a localised lockdown following a spike in COVID-19 cases. The English city reported 866 cases in the two-week period up to June 23. While the origins of the outbreak are currently unknown, I was not surprised to see it happen here. Leicester is the 32nd most deprived local authority in England (out of a total of 317). An estimated 41% of children there live in poverty. The local economy is also characterised by high levels of in-work poverty and low wages. The 2008 financial crisis, ten years of austerity, and the roll out of universal credit had already left public and voluntary services in the city stretched to the limit. The city could ill afford another negative shock – and then along came the coronavirus pandemic.

RT @EU_Social: In May, #unemployment in the EU was 6.7%, up from 6.4% in March when it was the lowest:

Covid-19 has decimated independent U.S. primary care practices—how should policymakers and payers respond? 

The coronavirus pandemic has torn through the global economy, suppressing consumer demand and industrial production. As countries look to an eventual recovery, but in a very different environment characterized by continuing distancing measures and loss of public confidence, businesses in many sectors, such as hospitality and retail, are asking how they can adapt to survive these new economic conditions. Yet perhaps surprisingly, those feeling threatened include independent primary care practices in the United States. Despite the USA being one of the most expensive healthcare systems in the world, many primary care practices are now facing financial collapse. Some estimates suggest that primary care practices will lose up to $15 billion during 2020 as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.

Women’s Roller Derby Has a Plan for Covid, and It Kicks Ass

While baseball, basketball, and other sports struggle to adapt, an international team of skater-experts has figured out a safer way to play.

What the reproduction number can and can’t tell us about managing COVID-19.

A guide to R — the pandemic’s misunderstood metric

10.1038/d41586-020-02009-w

Trump’s misleading information enables China to sow discord among allies, research finds

New report calls on Australia and US to strengthen ability to counter others’ disinformation – as well as their own

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics

The objective of this Personal View is to compare transmissibility, hospitalisation, and mortality rates for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with those of other epidemic coronaviruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and pandemic influenza viruses. The basic reproductive rate (R0) for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 2·5 (range 1·8–3·6) compared with 2·0–3·0 for SARS-CoV and the 1918 influenza pandemic, 0·9 for MERS-CoV, and 1·5 for the 2009 influenza pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes mild or asymptomatic disease in most cases; however, severe to critical illness occurs in a small proportion of infected individuals, with the highest rate seen in people older than 70 years. The measured case fatality rate varies between countries, probably because of differences in testing strategies. Population-based mortality estimates vary widely across Europe, ranging from zero to high. Numbers from the first affected region in Italy, Lombardy, show an all age mortality rate of 154 per 100 000 population. Differences are most likely due to varying demographic structures, among other factors. However, this new virus has a focal dissemination; therefore, some areas have a higher disease burden and are affected more than others for reasons that are still not understood. Nevertheless, early introduction of strict physical distancing and hygiene measures have proven effective in sharply reducing R0 and associated mortality and could in part explain the geographical differences.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30484-9

Exaggerated risk of transmission of COVID-19 by fomites

A clinically significant risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission by fomites (inanimate surfaces or objects) has been assumed on the basis of studies that have little resemblance to real-life scenarios.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30561-2