-for: adjacency - polycrisis - fear - hope - antidote

-adjacency between - fear - anger - hope - antidote - adjacency statement - hope is the antidote to fear and anger

• for: claim - polycrisis - two parallel interventions

• claim: polycrisis can be tackled with a two pronged approach

  • First, deal with the all the underlying drivers of the stresses simultaneously
    • The incapability of present leaders to deal with the issues causes citizens to lose faith and seek alternative leaders who promise to do a better job
  • Second, deal with the psychological impacts of the fear and anger, otherwise people fall into:
    • despair or
    • conflict as an outlet of anger
  • After writing his two books:
    • The Ingenuity Gap and
    • The Upside of Down
  • the importance of hope as an emotion led him to write the book
    • Commanding Hope

• for: adjacency - polycrisis - fear - anger - political exploitation

• adjacency between

  • polycrisis
  • fear
  • anger
  • political exploitation
  • polarization
  • authoritarianism
• adjacency statement
  • In this polycrisis space, we witness fear leading to anger which is then exploited by political opportunists who then create polarization through authoritarian impulses that superficially quench the desires of the unheard angry citizens

• for: waveform diagram - amplification and acceleration of crisis

• comment

  • nice picture to illustrate increasing frequency and amplitude of the graphical wave representation of a crisis

• for: pernicious cascades - qualities, stats - pernicious cascade, synchronized crisis

• stats - pernicious cascades - climate change

• Pernicious cascades - qualities
  • amplifying
    • global mean temp
      • in 2000: 0.72 Deg C warmer than pre-industrial (1850)
      • in 2020 1.2 Deg C warmer than pre-industrial
  • accelerating
    • warming per decade:
      • 1970 to 2010 - 0.18 Deg C / decade
      • 2010 to 2040 - 0.27 Deg C / decade
  • syncrhonizing
    • many systems are becoming unstable:
      • higher inflation
      • higher levels of precarity
      • higher levels of inequality
      • destabilizing climate / increase in extreme weather events
      • geopolitical conflicts
      • political polarization
      • misinformation
      • major migration
    • Cascade institute does not view these as random events - not a set of coincidence or "perfect storm"
    • instead, invisible synchronization and causality between events
    • our research reveals the invisible connections

• for: cascades - two types, pernicious cascades, virtuous cascades, definition - pernicious cascade, definition - virtuous cascade

• definition - pernicious cascade

  • knock on effects between systems that produce a level of significant harm to society
• definition - virtuous cascade
  • knock on effects between systems that produce beneficial impacts for society

• for: stats - major stressors of the polycrisis, trigger events

• stats: major stressors of the polycrisis

  • profile of a crisis
    • a crisis occurs when
  • a major stressor occurs
    • there are between 15 and 20 of them
  • and combines with much less predictable "trigger" events
    • also called stochastic or random events

• for: Cascade Institute - research focus

• Cascade institute - research focus

  • looking at the deep connections between converging crisis

• for: question - adaptation - answer - adaptation, adaptation - ingenuity, endogenous growth, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute

• question: adaptation

  • why do some societies successfully adapt to environmental stresses while others do not?

• answer: adaptation

  • Ingenuity
    • Researchers within societies that are able to adapt effectively are able to deliver ingenuity at the right time and place to prevent environmental problems from causing severe hardship.

• references

  • The ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1995)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1995/09/01/the-ingenuity-gap-can-poor-countries-adappt-to-resource-scarcity/
  • Resource Scaricity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1999)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1999/03/01/resource-scarcity-and-innovation-can-poor-countries-attain-endogenous-growth/
  • The Ingenuity Gap (2000)
    • http://www.ingenuitygap.com/
  • The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon, 2006)
    • https://homerdixon.com/writing/books/the-upside-of-down/

• for: urban planning - open source tools

• for: urban planning - open source tools

• for: urban planning - open source tools

• for: urban planning - open source tools

• for: inefficiencies - example - cars, low carbon futures - reduce cars

• for: progress trap - Kevin Anderson

• validation: SRG mapping tool, Indyweb

• for: carbon footprint of investments - example, carbon footprint - Paypal

• example

  • Paypals carbon footprint of investments and cash in bank was 55x higher than all other emissions combined. Wow!

• for: SRG campaign - stop high emissions banking

• SRG campaign

  • stop - banking with high emission banks
  • reset - search for alternate low emissions bank
  • go - if criteria is met, do the switch

• for: search for - low carbon bank

• to

  • inspired search:[how much of royal bank of canada investments is in fossil fuels?] (https://search.brave.com/search?q=how+much+of+royal+bank+of+canada+investments+is+in+fossil+fuels%3F&source=desktop)

• limitation

  • their tools listed are situated in the US only

• for: stats - bank emissions

• stats: bank emissions

  • if your bank is equivalent to the largest 11 US banks, the Project Drawdown report estimates
    • 0.24 metric tons of CO2 for every $1,000 USD saved in the bank
    • between 20 to 30 percent of your money is likely used to finance fossil fuel projects or other carbon intensive sectors like mining.

• for:climate crisis - solutions - banking

• from:[ Linked In Jonathan Foley Post] (https://hyp.is/TMzeTpnkEe6gsIcc_dt8hg/www.linkedin.com/posts/jonathan-foley-182808b9_how-to-break-up-with-your-bank-activity-7140431002400677888--kqs/)

• for: fossil fuel - financing - RBC

• comment

  • wow!

• from

• from
• to: Royal Bank the No. 1 financier of fossil fuel development in the world, new report finds

to: [Fast Company article on bank emissions] (https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fastcompany.com%2F90996425%2Fhow-to-break-up-with-your-bank&group=world)

• for: key point: alternative COP - breakaway group of nations, quote - alternative COP

• quote

  • What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
• author: Rupert Read

• date: Dec 4, 2021

• comment

• suggestion
  • This could very well work. By applying social tipping point theory, a coalition of the willing could potentially accomplish a lot more than a coalition mired in friction.
  • There is enough capacity between 100 nation states willing to take far more aggressive measures than what a few petrostates of the COP convention continuously veto that it could bring about a social tipping point.

• for: quote - COP - Rupert Read, quote - COP - come back next year and try again, quote - alternative COP

• quote

  • come back next year and try again
• author: Rupert Read

• date: Dec. 4, 2021

• quote

  • We just can't keep kicking the can down the road
• author: Rupert Read

• date: Dec 4, 2021

• comment

  • Well, COP28 is over and just as Rupert Read predicted above, we will
    • kick the can down the road again
    • come back next year and try again
  • It's a perpetual groundhog day, until it isn't

• from:[hypothesis annotation] (https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Ffeed%2Fupdate%2Furn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7140623789737811969%2F%3FcommentUrn%3Durn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A7140623789737811969%2C7140681818403422208)%26dashCommentUrn%3Durn%3Ali%3Afsd_comment%3A(7140681818403422208%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7140623789737811969)&group=world )

• for: good idea - COP alternative, COP alternative - coalition of the willing, COP alternative - social tipping point, Rupert Read - alternative to COP

• good idea: COP alternative

  • This could work based on the principle of social tipping points
  • The current COP pits the powerful incumbents of the old system delaying as long as possible rapid system change, these are the conservatives
    • This puts the liberals at distinct disadvantage from the conservatives because in a consensus reached agreement, the conservatives can veto any strong and binding language that represents rapid system change
  • In an alternative conference where the 100+ nation states are already in agreement, action in this smaller coalition OF THE WILLING, will lead to rapid action.
  • This could lead to breaking the threshold of system change via reaching the 25% social tipping point threshold

• question: alternative COP

  • If an alternative COP was held, is the nation state the best level to approach?
  • What about a city level COP?

• reference

  • Rupert Read article on alternative COP
    • https://rupertread.net/writings/2021/there-should-be-no-more-cop-climate-summits-we-need-an-alternative-that-could-actually-work/

google.search: nexialist meaning

from: [hypothesis] (https://hyp.is/UJEhzpmfEe6D1tcZ9rSBgw/www.google.com/search?q=nexialist+meaning&sca_esv=590380016&ei=6395ZZnBMLL97_UP-dWZwAo&ved=0ahUKEwjZ4q6Bk4yDAxWy_rsIHflqBqgQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=nexialist+meaning&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiEW5leGlhbGlzdCBtZWFuaW5nMgUQABiABDILEAAYgAQYigUYhgMyCxAAGIAEGIoFGIYDMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNItSZQ5wlYmiNwAXgBkAEAmAGAAaAB5waqAQMxLje4AQPIAQD4AQHCAgoQABhHGNYEGLADwgIQEAAYgAQYigUYQxjJAxiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAg4QABiABBiKBRiSAxiwA8ICExAuGIAEGIoFGEMYyAMYsAPYAQHCAgQQABgewgIGEAAYHhgPwgIGEAAYBRge4gMEGAAgQYgGAZAGCroGBAgBGAg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp)

• for: quote - luxury cannot be democratized, 1% - democracy, elites - democracy, adjacency - luxury - democracy, luxury is not democratic, luxury is inequality, Andre Gorz, Terrestrial website, adjancency - luxury - democracy, quote luxury

• quote

  • ... By its design as by its original destination, the car is a luxury good. And luxury, in essence, cannot be democratized: if everyone has access to luxury, no one benefits from it; on the contrary: everyone cheats, frustrates and dispossesses others and is cheated, frustrated and dispossessed by them.
• author: Andre Gorz
• date: Sept. 25, 2023

• publication: Terrestrial

  • https://www.terrestres.org/2023/09/25/jadore-la-bagnole-andre-gorz-repond-a-macron/

• comment

  • insightful comment reveals an adjacency between luxury and democracy that is obvious in hindsight, but missed seeing in foresight!

• adjacency between:

  • luxury
  • democracy
• adjacency statement
  • luxury is, by definition a premium artefact so by definition is beyond the reach of most people. It is therefore un-democratic by design.

• for: quote - Sultan Al Jabber, quote - energy replacement instead of phase out, key point - focus on energy transition instead of just fossil fuel phase out

• quote

  • Whatever one thinks of Sultan Al Jaber, one statement he’s made repeatedly makes perfect sense: “We cannot unplug the world from the current energy system before we build a new energy system.”
  • The focus, then, has to shift.
    • Instead of focusing on dismantling the incumbent system,
    • we need to focus on accelerating the deployment of the new system that will replace it
• author: Nafeez Ahmed

• date : Dec 6, 2023

• key point

  • we must focus on the energy shift instead of just the phase out or down of the old energy system

• for: COP28 - success without phase out

• key point

  • Even if the final COP28 language does not include phase out or phase down, it can still happen if the other deals are inked, such as tripling of renewables by 2030 or trillions more for climate finance.
  • This is because nonlinear dynamics are at play
  • Tripling investments can result in deployment far beyond the 3x investment
  • If that happens then the resulting atmosphere will force phase down and potentially phase out of fossil fuels simply by market logic
    • current heavy fossil fuel subsidies will be stressed to potential breaking point
    • being so noncompetitive will drive away many investors

• for: definition - green colonialism

• definition: green colonialism

  • applying colonialist thinking to the green transition

• for: polycrisis - US political election interference due to threat of net zero transition to Russian economy

• for: fossil fuel phase out, fossil fuel phase down, fossil fuel demand phase out

• suggestion - by Nafeez Ahmed - fossil fuel demand phase out

  • Nafeez writes that instead of phasing out fossil fuels, the focus should be on phasing out fossil fuel demand through increasing demand for alternatives
    • https://bylinetimes.com/2023/12/06/a-message-to-white-environmentalists-demanding-a-fossil-fuel-phase-out-is-not-enough/

• for: carbon emissions - colonialism correction

• title: Revealed: How colonial rule radically shifts historical responsibility for climate change

• date: Nov. 26, 2023
• author:
  • Simon Evans,
  • Verner Viisainen

• publication: Carbon Brief

• SUMMARY

  • first-of-its-kind climate justice analysis that measures the contribution of colonial contributions of carbon emissions
  • total emissions to date since 1850: 2,558bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2).
  • planetary global warming since 1850: 1.15C above pre-industrial temperatures.
  • 1850 was chosen as start year for humanity's measurable carbon budget due to available records and most emissions happening after this point"
  • carbon budget used from 1850 to 2023:92%
  • remaining carbon budget: 8%
  • chances of staying under 1.5 Deg C if we do not exceed our budget: 50/50
  • burn rate of remaining 8%: 1% / month
  • time remaining to stay within budget: 8.4 years:
  • emissions corrected by colonial emissions accounting"
    • Portugal emissions: > 3x more
    • Netherlands emissions: 3x more
    • UK emissions: 2x more
      • UK ranks 4th when colonial emissions are counted
    • France emissions: 1.5x more
    • EU+UK emissions:19% more
      • As a group, EU+UK ranks only 2nd behind US
    • India emissions: 15% less
    • Indonesia: 34% less
    • Africa: 24% less
    • On a per capita basis, China, Africa and India are far behind developed nations' emissions contributions.
    • Many former colonial powers are now net CO2 importers. This raises their emissions contributions even further if accounted for

• for: salience mismatch - comparison - phylogenetic network - bifurcating tree

• salience mismatch: comparison - phylogenetic network - bifurcating tree

  • Dec 11, 2023
    • I need examples of both applied to indyweb / Indranet to see pros and cons
    • I don't yet appreciate the meaning of phylogenetic network
    • https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylogenetic_network
  • Dec 12, 2023
    • Salience mismatch lifting. I think you are applying biomimcry here but the comarison between
      • evolution of living systems and
      • evolution of ideas
    • Two (or more) ideas can interact and give rise to a new idea
    • So at the very least, at least 3 ideas can exist autonomously, each being a source for new ideas.

• for: 1% - media control

• for: quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - 1% manipulation

• quote

  • This 1% of humanity uses its awesome power to manipulate
    • societal aspirations and
    • the narratives around climate change.
  • These extend from
    • well-funded advertising to
    • pseudo-technical solutions,
    • the financialisation of carbon emissions (and increasingly, nature) to
    • labelling extreme any meaningful narrative that questions inequality and power.

• for: do people know? - 50% chance, 1.5 Deg. C target - is still a crap shoot

• new trailmark: do people know?

• do people know?: 50% chance

  • the well known 1.5 Deg C. target, which currently seems almost impossible to achieve, is still a crap shoot! There is a 50% chance that if be we achieve it, we can still trigger very harmful impacts like tipping points

• for: climate crisis - elite control of mainstream media

• for: Kevin Anderson - carbon inequality, climate crisis - carbon inequality climate crisis - carbon inequality, carbon inequality

• for: appropriate cliches - united we stand, appropriate cliches - power to the people

• suggestion

• cliches
  • we need modernize old cliches
    • united we stand, divided we fall
    • power to the people - energy cooperative
    • water to the people - water cooperative
    • food to the people - food cooperative
    • knowledge to the people - media and education cooperative
  • Stop Reset Go and Indyweb / Indranet can converge media from across the web via mindplex of trans-disciplinary social annotations

• for: left / right polarization - transcending

• comment

  • What James is saying is that we must be wise enough to:
    • understand the attractors of each party so that
    • whole system change agents can navigate away from being coopted into the existing polarization
  • This requires a very strong and clear understanding of the direction whole system change requires and staying on course
  • It's very insightful to study how coopting occurs in real-life

• for: definition - green democratic revolution

• definition: green democratic revolution

  • Schneider proposes this strategy is more pragmatic than either green growth or degrowth. The words are chosen carefully:
    • green - obvious
    • democratic - authentic equal power of the people
    • revolution - because we are at the precipice, a fast evolution, a rEVOLUTION is necessary
  • He finds both of these current approaches problematic:
    • green growth employs the same elite debt-based growth logic that contributed to the fossil growth economy
    • degrowth is a terrible term for climate communications which brings the wrong immediate connotations to the masses so creates unnecessary friction at the outset for any strategy that needs to win over the masses.

• for: climate crisis - voting for global political green candidates, podcast - Planet Critical, interview - Planet Critical - James Schneider - communications officer - Progressive International, green democratic revolution, climate crisis - elite control off mainstream media

• podcast: Planet Critical

• host: Rachel Donald

• title: Overthrowing the Ruling Class: The Green Democratic Revolution

• summary

  • This is a very insightful interview with James Schneider, communications officer of Progressive International on the scales of political change required to advert our existential Poly / meta / meaning crisis.
  • James sees 3 levels of crisis
    • ordinary crisis emerging from a broken system
    • larger wicked problems that cannot be solved in isolation
    • the biggest umbrella crisis that covers all others - the last remaining decades of the fossil fuel system,
      • due to peak oil but accelerated by
      • climate crisis
  • There has to be a paradigm shift on governance, as the ruling elites are driving humanity off the cliff edge
  • This is not incremental change but a paradigm shift in governance
  • To do that, we have to adopt an anti-regime perspective, that is not reinforcing the current infective administrative state, otherwise, as COVID taught us, we will end up driving the masses to adopt hard right politicians
  • In order to establish the policies that are aligned to the science, the people and politicians have to be aligned.
  • Voting in candidates who champion policies aligned to science is a leverage point.
  • That can only be done if the citizenry is educated enough to vote for such politicians
  • So there are two parallel tasks to be done:
    • mass education program to educate citizens
    • mass program to encourage candidates aligned to climate science to run for political office

• for: media bias - insight of journalist questions

• media insight

  • the journalist's question reveals where they are situated

• for: social tipping points - political, quote - french Revolution - Denmark

• quote.

  • the French Revolution happened in Denmark

• for: answer to above question

• answer : two answers

  • first, the elite have the majority of
    • wealth
    • control of setting policies
    • control of the media
    • and they work really hard at controlling policy and media
    • and the people
      • hate the system
      • generally hate them
  • second, social tipping points occur. Something happened in over place, then it spreads to other places

• for: question - how do we organise a green democratic revolution when power is so entrenched?

• question

  • how do we organise a green democratic revolution when power is so entrenched?

• for,: question - maintaining ruling elites

• question

  • how do the elites maintain the tiling class in their favour and undermine popular power,?

• for: quote - there is no center, it's a fiction, quote - James Schneider - Progressive International

• quote

• key point
  • the things that the overwhelming majority of people support are not on the political agenda
    • which is why this whole the idea that there is a center in politics is a complete fiction
  • Elite consensus opinion is almost always massively in the minority
    • and so you have to work very hard to prevent things which are massively in the majority from getting political expression
  • Polling between 2/3 and 3/4 of people support (including generally speaking the majority of people who voted in the last election support) things like
    • public ownership of
      • energy
      • water
      • rail
      • mail, etc
    • a 15 pound an hour minimum wage
    • a wealth tax
• All of these things considered way way on the left are not on the left, that's actually the center if you're talking about where is the mainstream British public opinion - and it's such strong public opinion because no one ever says it in the public sphere and when they do they are ridiculed
• author: James Schneider, Progressive International
• date: Dec, 2023

• for: polycrisis - entrenched institutional bias, examples - entrenched institutional bias - bank macro economic policy - lobbyist

• paraphrase

  • James provides two examples of major institutional bias that has to be rapidly overcome if we are to stand a chance at facilitating rapid system change:
    • Bank of England controls macroeconomic policies that favour elites and not ordinary people and
      • these policies are beyond political contestation
    • In the normal political system, lobbyists through the revolving door between the top levels of the Civil Service and the corporate sector bias policies for elites and not ordinary citizens

• for: quote - political system change is required

• quote

  • the changes that we need to make our political system go well beyond having a better party or changing who some of the MPS are and so on
    • because it is structurally set up to insulate the ruling class from popular pressure

• for: green democratic revolution - critique

• critique: green democratic revolution

• paraphrase

  • it is so difficult to get people excited about politics because
  • they've sort of seen through the two- party system now where it's just like the same thing over and over again
  • so you have to offer something new
  • but I think was quite difficult for the left to really bring about a progressive Revolution
  • Iif you take that kind of thinking to its logical conclusion, one essentially ends up just abolishing the whole system and end up at Anarchy

  • meanwhile, the right is doubling down and making itself a firmer force

• comment

  • in a sense, it feels like a moment when the traditional tension between liberals and conservatives is reaching a peak
  • over force is desperately hanging onto the past whilst smoother is forestry moving in a new direction

• for: anti-system posture - required for mass support

• reference

  • see previous annotation

• for: Lessons from COVID

  • Left position to avoid driving masses to the hard right

• quote

  • i think this is important in the kind of what the left posture is to regime and system breakdown which it is experiencing has to be anti-regime

• paraphrase

  • otherwise the anti-regime forces go to the hard right and
    • if the left follows the left wing of the management state which is trying to technocratically limit the catastrophe of breakdown,
    • it will never get popular support that's basically what happened during COVID.
      • the hard right denied science, the left went begging the administrative state and as a consequence, there was a massive expansion of the right around the globe

• for: degrowth - criticism - bad communication, suggestion - growth and degrowth simultaneously

• suggestion

  • evolution / transition / transformation are better terms as it indicates something is dying at the same time diverging is being born
  • it is highly misleading to think one dimensionally as there are many things that have to degrow and many things that have to grow simultaneously
    • degrowth of carbon emissions, which implies pragmatically in the short time scale noe available a significant degrowth of fossil fuels
  • growth of a new energy system to replace much of it
  • degrowth of unnecessary and harmful consumption accompanied
    • growth of holistic network of root level wellbeing activities and the low carbon infrastructure to support it

• for: climate crisis - analogy

• climate crisis - analogy

  • We're on a highway to the cliff
  • our foot is on the accelerator
  • the ruling class is driving
  • we are bound and gagged in the boot
  • we have to
    • work together to untie ourselves,
    • break through the front seat,
    • remove the driver,
    • take control of the steering wheel and brakes and
    • avoid driving over the cliff edge

• for: priorities - rapid whole system change

• priorities: rapid whole system change

  • energy system
  • food system
  • debt

• for,: question - controller degrowth vs financial collapse

• for: adjacency - debt - growth

• adjacency between

  • debt
  • growth
• adjacency statement
  • in the current different of endless growth, debt requires growth to pay off the debt
  • we borrow money to open a new business and have to GROW our market shares to service the debt
  • multiplier millions and billions of times the world over, we have too brief our markets and sell more stuff too post back our loans

• for: quote, climate futures - both green new deal and regrowth don't work, green new deal - criticism, degrowth - criticism

• annotate

• for: James Hansen - interview - Paul Beckwith, Global warming in the pipeline

• Summary

  • Paul discusses James Hansen's most recent, and controversial paper:
    • Global warming in the pipeline
      • https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
  • with guest James Hansen
  • the paper claims that IPCC protective are far too conservative
  • Micheal Mann fort I've, disagrees with it:
    • a

• for: system justification theory, status quo bias, question - lack of commensurate action

• summary

  • Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
  • Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
  • However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
    • system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.

• Question

  • The question here is this:
    • Can system justification theory be applied to explain why the majority of citizens, even though they are aware that the current fossil fuel energy system must be rapidly scaled down, there is no commensurate sense of emergency of concomitant action?

• for: system justification theory - conformity bias

• key insight

  • conformity bias imposed on individuals belonging to minorities can bring about stronger system justification behavior

• for: system justification theory, status quo bias

• summary

  • Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
  • Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
  • However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
    • system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
  • This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies

• for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors

• title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

• author: Manjana Miikoreit

• date: Nov 17, 2022

• abstract

  • The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
    • understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
  • A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
  • In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
    • climate tipping points and
    • ecological regime shifts–
  • STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
  • Drawing on
    • a well-established definition for tipping points, and
    • a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
  • this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
    • (i) premature labeling,
    • (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
    • (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
    • (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
  • Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
  • Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
    • the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
    • future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
  • Future research should seek to
    • identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
      • many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
      • certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.

• for: polycrisis, metacrisis, meaning crisis

• for: money - enabling transaction with strangers, adjacency - money - othering

• adjacency between

  • money
  • othering
  • competition
  • sacred
• adjacency statement
  • in exchange for MY labour, I have access to the fruits of others
  • how much money your can get used how much resource produced by others you can get
  • we accumulate money for ourselves and don't share much with others
  • othering is built into the use of money ,- the artificial scarcity of money puts us all in competition with each other for a scarce resource
  • competition is othering
  • by default, the economic game is about grabbing the most resources for self
  • hence it is facing a direction AWAY from the sacred
  • it intrinsically does not treat all others a equally sacred
  • it promotes an every-person-for themselves attitude

• for: hard problem of consciousness - sensory motor theory, explanatory gap

• for: hard problem of consciousness - sensory motor theory

• for: open source - built environment

• for: Deep Humanity - business transition, DH - business transition

• summary

  • fear of the old system dying, and therefore of death in general is something top executives are dealing with, and not very well.
  • Deep Humanity mortality salience BEing journeys are a valuable tool to help with the transition of business and industry

• for: transition - business world - fear, DH - business application, Deep Humanity - Business application

• for: SRG TPF community initiator program

• for: question - SONEC alignment to earth system boundaries

• question

  • Stop Reset Go's objective is to find global community partners who can help motivate a local community strategy aligned with the tight timeframe to stay under 1.5 Deg C.
  • Is SONEC open to working on a strategic to empower communities in this way?
  • We can offer it as an optional framework that the community can integrate into their final framework

• for: neighboourhood typologies

• paraphrase

  • local
  • extended
  • virtual

• for: community participation - challenges

• comment

  • time and money are the two biggest factors governing participation. There is a high level of precarity in society currently and many people are just trying to survive, leaving little time left over for anything else

• for: neighborhood cooperation - challenges, community cooperation - challenges

• comment

  • the greatest challenge with community and neighbourhood cooperation is that the great diversity of people living in them can pose a challenge to effective cooperation.
  • there is a structural reason for the alenation found in Western communities and neighbourhoods that have emerged in historical context of the three great separations

• references

  • the three great separations
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Finthesetimes.com%2Farticle%2Findustrial-agricultural-revolution-planet-earth-david-korten&group=world

• for: local government - citizen conflicts, community group autonomy,

• comment

  • frequently, local government officials are in conflict with citizens. That's why it's important that community citizen groups have autonomy while still maintaining important relationships with local governments.

• for: key insight - community capacity

• key insight - community capacity

• quote
  • . Although there are many initiatives, they have not yet reached the scale necessary to respond effectively to the crises; they often lack a stable and facile organisation of collaboration and a clearly structured process of joint decision making

• for: vita activa, new forms of political participation

• for: polycrisis, metacrisis, meaning crisis

• for: suggestion - SONEC and commons transition plan

• suggestion

  • Is a synthesis of SONEC and existingCommons Transition plans worthwhile considering?
    • City of Ghent https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/a-commons-transition-plan-for-the-city-of-ghent/2017/09/14
    • City of Sydney, Australia https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Commons_Transition_Plan_for_the_City_of_Sydney

• for: SONEC - expanding globally, Global North South sister city program

• comment

  • For globally expanding SONEC, it is also important to consider other cultural values outside the European lens and to also address the structural inequalities of colonialism
  • For a globalized SONEC, one suggestion is to create a sister city program based on reparation from colonial injustice and integrating a climate justice component

• for SONEC - foundational pillars

• paraphrase: SONEC foundational pillars

  • Neighbourhood parliaments
  • Sociocratic circle organization method
  • Elinor Ostrom's "governing the commons" principles

• for: transition - at local level, community owned production cooperatives

• comment

  • SONECs can provide the vehicle for rapid whole system change and transition at the local level
  • From SONEC neighborhood parliaments, a community can become more independent and production can be relocaized in the form of community owned cooperatives for:
    • energy
    • water
    • food
    • transportation
    • health
    • manufacturing

• annotate
• for: response to COP28 president's statement

• for: metacrisis, polylcrisis, meaning crisis, Daniel Schmachtenberger, John Vervaeke, Iain McGilchrist

• for: plan B, climate futures, dystopian future, civilization collapse

• title: If We’ve Lost the Climate War, What’s Plan B?

• subtitle: Why a carbon tax won’t save us, and what’s next.
• author: Crawford Kilian

• date: Nov 22, 2023

• summary

  • a good article that shows the complexity and unpredictability of a collapse scenario and system justification theory, which sounds like the boiling frog syndrome

• for: system justification theory, Kiffer Card, Kirk Hepburn

• for: quote - staying under 1.5 Deg C

• quote: staying under 1.5 Deg C

  • It may be that the climate denialists, even in the 1980s, knew this very well.
  • They denied global heating because they saw it meant social and political change on a scale never seen before.
  • An economic system that had made millions rich and billions at least comfortable would collapse.
  • For those who’ve benefited from the system, death is less frightening than poverty.

• for: stats - staying under 1.5 Deg C

• stats: staying under 1.5 Deg C

  • is equivalent to shutting down the economies of China, the US, India, Japan and Russia

• for: 4 Deg world, William Rees,

• for: planetary tipping points, global tipping points, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• for: remote COP29 project proposal - demographic data

• comment

  • this is the first year the full participants list has been published. If it shows city/country of origin, that would be very useful for this proposal

• for: emissions tracking tool, climatetrace

• annotate

• for: futures - neo-Venetian crypto-networks, Global Chinese Commons, GCC, cosmolocal, coordiNation, somewheres, everywheres, nowheres, Global System One, Global System Two, Global System Three, contributory accounting, fourth sector, protocol cooperative, mutual coordination economics

• summary

• learned something new
  • I learned a number of new ideas from reading Michel's article. He gives a brief meta-history of our political-socio-economic system, using Peter Pogany's framework of Global System One, Two and Three and within this argues for why a marriage of blockchain systems and cosmolocal production systems could create a "fourth sector" for the transition to Global System Three.
  • He cites evidence of existing trends already pointing in this direction, drawing from his research in P2P Foundation

• for: quote - ethereum - milestone - integration with physical production commons

• quote

  • The next step would be a convergence with the commons of physical production, the cosmo-local urban commons and p2p hardware companies, so that crypto governance becomes a mutual coordination infrastructure for more and more human citizens
• author: Michel Bauwens
• date: 2023

• for: definition - somewheres - nowheres - everywheres

• for: definition - protocol cooperative, question - protocol cooperative

• question: protocol cooperative

  • this seems to be the same definition as cosmolocal. Why not call it a cosmolocal cooperative?

• for: typo

• for: fourth sector

• comment

  • coexisting with the other three sectors

• for: typo

• for: acronyms - GCC, suggestion

• suggestion: acronyms

  • Have a table of acronyms at the start of the article
  • @Michel introduced this without defining it and I did not know the meaning when I saw it here.

• for: typo

• for: China - support for public goods for Ethereum

• research

  • do literature review to validate Michel's claim

• for: China - ecocivilizational goal

• for: accronym - GCC, Global Chinese Commons

• for: portmanteau - coordiNation, definition - coordiNations

• for: question - DAO book?

• question: DAO book?

  • @Michel, does it make sense to coauthor a volume on existing DAOs? This might compliment our cosmolocal book?

• for: urban commons - history

• for: adjacency - Satoshi Nakamoto white paper - bitcoin - P2P Foundation Ning forum

• adjacency between

  • Satoshi Nakamoto white paper
  • bitcoin
  • P2P Foundation Ning website
• adjacency statement
  • I didn't realize that Satoshi Nakamoto first published his paper on the P2P Foundation Ning website.

• for: thermodynamic accounting - Indyweb blockchainless provenance

• for: open source - contributory accounting, Indyweb - contributory accounting, open source accounting - indyweb - provenance

• comment

  • Indyweb's people-centered, interpersonal design enables granular contributory accounting within the network through the feature known as provenance, that tracks the evolution of shared ideas within a network
  • this is done without blockchain, a blockchainless ecosystem

• for: noosphere, symbolosphere, meaningverse, comparison - noosphere, symbolosphere, meaningverse

• comparison: noosphere, symbolosphere, menaingverse

  • The last two terms originate in Stop Reset Go's Deep Humanity praxis and are comparable to the noosphere.

  • The symbolosphere stresses the symbolic nature of the experience

• for: GS3, Global System Three transition, mutual coordination economics

• paraphrase

  • GS3 will be more difficult than GS2
  • social contract needs to be updated to include
    • new relation with nature and non-human beings
    • stronger multilateral relasionships to protect the planet
  • In Michel's view, a cosmolocal coordination will be required
  • The alternative is coercive eco-fascism to prevent massive ecological damage while we continue to overconsume planetary resources
  • definition: mutual coordination economics
    • an economic system that maximizes freedom of choice within earth system boundaries with minimal coercion
    • it is a new synthesis of markets, states and commons via decentralized p2p networks

• for: different possible socio-economic-political futures

• comment

  • Michel outlines the possibilities then selects the last one as the one he situates himself in and will write on, namelyl:
    • A dream to integrate:
      • markets,
      • networks,
      • state functions, AND what we could call
      • ‘the Commons’

• for: definition - Global System Two

• for: definition - Global System One

• for: book - Rethinking the World

• book: Rethinking the World

• author: Peter Pogany

• for: question - kariotic flow - examples of purple side

• question: kariotic flow - purple side examples

  • Could Kylie provide corresponding purple side examples fo these specific orange side processes?

• for: salience mismatch, question - provide examples - kariotic flow

• question: Can Kylie provide an example of some damaging right side activities and how it could be corrected by including the corresponding left side activities?

• for: kariotic flow

• summary

  • While I appreciate the general idea, the explanation in terms of the 6 parts of the kariotic flow wheel is not clear. I found a strong salience mismatch

  • concrete examples would go a long way to bridge the explanatory gap between the salience landscape of the author and that of the reader

• for: critique - without analysis, kariotic flow - emptiness, kariotic flow - entanglement

• critique: without analysis

  • really? Or has the analysis just gone to a deeper, subconscious level?
  • everything a person has learned in life creates a complex network of ideas that is like a giant, invisible toolbox ready to be drawn upon when the environmental context cues trigger a response from the toolbox
  • this would be impossible if years of past analysis and abstraction was not already done
  • any intelligent response to an event that emerge in our environment is not arbitrary, but draws upon this complex, learned past

• for: critique - language

• question: navigating without language

• critique: language
• adjacency between
  • kariotic flow
  • word intent
  • epoche
  • is the author sayng that we can and must navigator without language and ideas? If so, I don't see how that is possible, since language shapes the way we experience reality. Decades of languages training has become a part of the way we experience reality now and I don't see how it can become undone.
  • I've explored my entire life, in fact to determine it's itt is possible to undo this deep linguistic conditioning
    • my latest explorations of epoche are towards this direction

• for: kariotic flow - metacrisis explanation, question - salience

• question: salience

• critique,: inadequate explanation
  • I don't understand the salience of why the right half needs that left half.
  • I think the ideas are too abstract and while years of experience may make the author familiar with our salience, to a new mind looking at the ideas for the first time, there is a salience mismatch because they semantic fingerprints are different
  • a few concrete examples of , how this works to explain the metacrisis would be very helpful
  • there isn't enough time spent illuminating and explaining what each of these 6b abstract ideas are our why they are assigned such strategic importance. Hence, I do not appreciate their salience and the salience mishmash occurs

• for: critique - language constructs

• critique: language constructs

  • it is an inherent aspect of language that words are loci of a specific aspect of reality

• for: terminology - problems - solutions

• terminology: problems - solutions

  • the two ways of speaking seem equivalent to me.

• for: critique - of Simon Michaux

• comment

• summary
  • Simon Michaux has been writing about the shortage of Lithium, copper and other metals required to build the technologies for a rapid energy system transition.
  • Based on Michaux's analysis, there will be a large shortage of such minerals. However, Michael Barnard disputes Michaux's claims as detailed in the article. Michaux's arguments have been used to advocate for degrowth. While degrowth may still be a viable futures trajectory, shortage of minerals may not be one of the reason. Lack of circular economy processes or continued exploitation practices that sustain inequality and rampant consumerism and economic growth may still be valid reasons to consider for degrowth however.

• for: visualizations - sea level rise at 3 Deg C

• comment

  • Look to canal cities like Venice or Amsterdam for inspiration because if it cities are salvagable, parts of them will become canal cities.

• annotate
• for: emissions reduction - net zero cities

• annotate
• for: emissions reduction - circular economy

• annotate
• for: emissions reduction - consumer-oriented policies

• for: futures, futures - climate change
• annotate

• for: quote - Yuval Noah Harari, quote - polycrisis

• for: adjacency - Jared Diamond - Yuval Noah Harari

• for: insight - conservatives destroying instead of conserving

• for: quote - social constructs - liberals and conservatives, social norms - liberals and conservatives, insight - social norms

• in other words

• insight

  • the tug of war between liberals and conservatives is one of the difference in pace of accepting new social norms

• adjacency between

  • social norms
  • liberal vs conservative
  • stories
• adjacency statement
  • When stories are different between different cultural groups, the pace of accepting the new social norm can need quite different due b to the stories being very different

• for: insight - creating new social norms is difficult

• insight

  • creating new social norms is difficult because society is complex
  • society adheres to existing social norms. Adding something new is always a challenge
  • social norms are like the rules of a game. If you change the rules too often, it doesn't work. Society needs stable rules.

• analogy: changing social norms, sports

  • changing social norms is difficult. Imagine changing the rules off a sports competition each time you play.

• for: insight - holy vs human scriptures

• comment

  • Harari touches on an important point here. If some edict is interpreted as written by "God", then it is very difficult or impossible to amend.
  • In contrast, human scriptures such as a country's constitution, a scientific law, rules of a sport, engagement rules of the stock market or an economic system are all created by humans and can be amended
  • Why is gay marriage so volatile a subject? It's because there is one interpretation that holy scripture only condones relationships between a man and a woman.

• for: stories - consequences of good and bad stories, inisight - war and genocide - when people violently disagree on stories,

• insight

  • disagreement of stories
    • not just wars, but climate change skeptics believe a different story than environmentalists
    • hyperobjects and evolution play a role as well in what we believe

• for: Thomas Theorem, The definition of the situation, William Isaac Thomas, Dorothy Swain Thomas, definition - Thomas Theorem, definition - definition of the situation, conflicting belief systems - Thomas theorem, learned something new - Thomas theorem

• definition: Thomas Theorem

• definition: definition of the situation
  • "The Thomas theorem is a theory of sociology which was formulated in 1928 by William Isaac Thomas and Dorothy Swaine Thomas:

If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.[1]

In other words, the interpretation of a situation causes the action. This interpretation is not objective. Actions are affected by subjective perceptions of situations. Whether there even is an objectively correct interpretation is not important for the purposes of helping guide individuals' behavior.|

• comment
• learned something new

• key insight: polarization

  • Behaviors subsequently are enacted out of a set of beliefs.
  • If there are a multitude of conflicting belief systems emerged from different cultures, then real conflicts can emerge out of the disharmony of conflicting beliefs
  • This is a very important insight into the polarization we see in the world today

• adjacency between:

  • polarization
  • Thomas Theorem

• adjacency statement

  • polarization can be explained by the Thomas Theorem

• reference

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_theorem#:~:text=The%20Thomas%20theorem%20is%20a,This%20interpretation%20is%20not%20objective.

• for: example - fiction - money

• comment

  • money is also a fiction, possibly the most powerful one humans have ever created.

• for: quote - Yuval Noah Harari, quote - nothing wrong with fictions

• quote -This God is very clearly a human invention. Now it doesn't mean it's necessarily bad. It doesn't certainly mean its unimportant.

• author: Yuval Noah Harari

• for: narratives - science and religion, stories - science and religion, symbolosphere, meaningverse, multi-meaningverse

• comment

  • Harari is saying that both science and the diversity of religions are both telling a story. Both are fictional in the deeper sense that they are all stories and stories are all created by humans in the symbolosphere
  • Science, or religion, cannot be found merely in the books that write about them, no matter how many libraries or harddrives of 1s and 0s they take up
  • How do we know this? Easy. If an ant or butterfly or sunflower is exposed to a physical book or pdf on on ANY scientific subject, or ANY religious topic, will it understand it? No, of course not. Only a human fully conditioned into the symbolosphere will be able to interact with that physical or informational object and get something meaningful out of it. That is because we have all learned to co-participate in a collective meaningverse.

• for: question - Catholic church claim - humans have a souls but other creatures do not

• comment

• question: Do only humans have souls?
  • Harari explores this question about the Catholic church's claim that humans have a soul and shows how messy it is
  • Where does "having a soul" begin or end, if we go down the evolutionary rabbit hole?

• for: quote - deep inheritance of evolutionary adaptations

• quote

  • we need to understand the deep inheritance within us in order to understand our emotions, our fears and our behaviors in the 21st century.
• author: Yval Noah Harari

• for: stone age code, similar to - Ronald Wright - computer metaphor, evolutionary psychology - examples, evolutionary paradox of modernity, evolution - last mile link, major evolutionary transition - full spectrum in modern humans, example - MET - full spectrum embedded in modern humans

• comment

• insights

  • evolutionary paradox of modernity
    • modern humans , like all the living species we share the world with, are the last mile link of the evolution of life we've made it to the present, so all species of the present are, in an evolutionary sense, winners of their respective evolutionary game
    • this means that all our present behaviors contain the full spectrum of the evolutionary history of 4 billion years of life
    • the modern human embodies all major evolutionary transitions of the past
    • so our behavior, at all levels of our being is a complex and heterogenous mixture of evolutionary adaptations from different time periods of the 4 billion years that life has taken to evolve.
    • Some behaviors may have originated billions of years ago, and others hundred thousand years ago.

• Examples: humans embody full spectrum of METs in our evolutionary past

  • fight and flight response
    • early hominids on African Savannah hundreds of thousands to millions of years ago when hominids were predated upon by wild predators
  • cancer
    • normative intercell communication breaks down and reverts to individual cell behavior from billions of years ago
      • see Michael Levin's research on how to make metastatic cancer cells return to normative collective, cooperative behavior
  • children afraid to sleep in the dark
    • evolutionary adaptation against dangerous animals that might have hid in the dark - dangerous insiects, snakes, etc, which in the past may have resulted in human fatalities
  • obesity
    • hunter gatherer hominid attraction to rich sources of fruit. Eating as much of it as we can and maybe harvesting as much as we can and carrying that with us.
      • like squirrels storing away for the winter.

• annotate

• annotate

• for:social tipping points - within safe and just earth system boundaries

• annotate

• for: social tipping point - tools, cascade institute, Boolean Causal Loop Analysis, BCLA, Cross-impact balance, CIB, socio-cognitive mapping, cognitive-affective mapping, ideological state-space

• for: COP28 - Johan Rockstrom

• for: commented on - Trump and failings of political system, poem - Trump a symptom of failing political system

• commented on

  • I wrote a poem in the comment section of this video:

    • Oh what a web we weave, when we practice to deceive
    • What a distance Trump will fall, when Jack Smith and the other upholders of truth disentangles it all!
    • What lesson have we learned, what has hindsight allowed us to see
    • about the fragility of this gift called democracy?
    • Whose ideal is that men and women are all equal another way of saying we are all sacred?
    • We pay a heavy price for not taking care of our disenfranchised sisters and brothers
    • for without job and pay they may seem powerless but the minions of poor left behind,
    • not lifted by the rising tide of unequal prosperity
    • at least have a vote to vent their anger and victimhood of being forgot
    • and comes along the next power-hungry, fork-tongued, snake-oil salesman
    • who recognizes the strength in the weakness of the minion
    • enough to exploit for personal gain the aggregate vote of the disenfranchised many
    • plunging democracy and its constitutions into crisis
    • Not only in the US, but all around the world
    • we witness the same phenomena
    • as the failings of liberal democracies that have left masses behind,
    • unintentional failings of democracy,
    • is exploited by the opportunist to seize power

    • and institute intentional forms of non-democracy

    • The bottom line (below):

    • Regardless of political ideology,
    • genuine empathy for all
    • not just in theory, but in practice
    • is the path to a just, stable and thriving society

• for: poison or nutrients - depends on dose, micronutrients, micronutrients - arsenic

• for: interesting fact - urban growth and slums, quote - urban growth and slums

• interesting fact: urban growth and slums

• quote: urban growth and slums

  • globally, 70% of today's urban growth occurs outside the formal planning process

• comment

  • this is definitely a unique urban planning problem of large metros, especially in the Global South

• for: three great separations, alienation, financial capital vs social capital, the great simplification, linked in post - social capital