展现了Agent系统设计中的风险控制逻辑：过早陷入底层细节会导致错误级联。让Planner专注于高层目标，将实现路径留给执行层自主探索，有效避免了自上而下的规划谬误，增强了系统的容错性。

for - definition - syncrhronomous failure - Cascade Institute - Thomas Homer-Dixon

definition - syncrhronomous failure - Cascade Institute - Thomas Homer-Dixon - When multiple systems fail simultaneously, the scale may overwhelm institutions to respond effectively since they have evolved to deal with issues in silos

for - polycrisis - research roadmap - cascade institute

for - Donald Trump re-election - existential risk - planetary tipping points - earth system boundaries - study - Impact 2024 - Cascade Institute - polycrisis - Trump reelection - increase risk

for - question - Study on 2024 Trump win on polycrisis - Cascade Institute - why is there such a small analysis on the environment and especially planetary tipping points whilst climate clock is ticking?

for - geothermal energy - Google - adjacency - Google geothermal - Cascade Institute

For some reason, before reading this, I misunderstood the “cascade” as a metaphor for composition, were the water fallen from a first cascade might flow as input to a second cascade; but now I see this is clearly wrong and the cascade means exactly the contrary, since the punctuation :: and ; breaks that continuity. It means a jump in the regular flow of evaluation, as a cascade means a jump.

The double colon syntax is specific to Cuis; at least it is not valid syntax in Squeak.

• for: polycrisis, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute Royal Roads University - Changemakers Speakers Series, etymology - polylcrisis

• Talk: Hope in the Polycrisis

• Speaker: Thomas Homer-Dixon
• Host: Royal Roads University - Changemakers Speakers Series

• Date: 2023

• SUMMARY

  • Thomas Homer-Dixon is a leading complex systems scientist and director of the Cascade Institute, which he co-founded at Royal Roads University in Victoria, B.C., Canada, to study the polycrisis and identify strategic high leverage interventions that could rapidly shift humanity's trajectory in the next few critical years.
  • The talk, entitled "Hope in the polycriisis" chronicles Homer-Dixon's multi-decade journey to understand the convergence of crisis happening in the world today.

  • In a real sense, the evolution of his thinking on these complex problems are reflected in the series of books he has written over the years, culminating in the 2023 book "Commanding Hope", based on a theory of hope:

    • Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, 1999). - a book showing how other factors combine with environmental stress to produce violence.
    • “The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity?,” which appeared in Population and Development Review in 1995
    • “Resource Scarcity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth?" ?” coauthored with Edward Barbier, which appeared in Ambio (1999)
    • The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (2006), examined the threat to global stability of simultaneous and interacting demographic, environmental, economic, and political stresses. This led to examining energy as a major factor in our modern society.
    • "Commanding Hope: The Power we have to Renew a World in Peril"
      • https://commandinghope.com/

  • Homer-Dixon also talks about practical solutions, His team at Casacade Institute is researching a promising technology called ultra-deep geothermal, which could provide unlimted energy at energy densities comprable to fossil fuels.

  • He finishes his talk with his theory of Hope and how a "Robust" hope can be the key to a successful rapid transition.

• etymology - polycrisis

  • https://polycrisis.org/lessons/where-did-the-term-polycrisis-come-from/
  • Complexity theorists Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern first used the term polycrisis in their 1999 book, Homeland Earth, to argue that the world faces
    • “no single vital problem, but many vital problems, and it is this complex intersolidarity of problems, antagonisms, crises, uncontrolled processes, and the general crisis of the planet that constitutes the number one vital problem" (p. 74).
  • South African sociologist and sustainable transitions theorist Mark Swilling then adopted the term to capture
    • “a nested set of globally interactive socio-economic, ecological and cultural-institutional crises that defy reduction to a single cause” (2013, p. 98).
  • Climate change, rising inequality, and the threat of financial crises interact in complex ways that multiply their overall impact (Swilling 2013, 2019).

• for: cascades - two types, pernicious cascades, virtuous cascades, definition - pernicious cascade, definition - virtuous cascade

• definition - pernicious cascade

  • knock on effects between systems that produce a level of significant harm to society
• definition - virtuous cascade
  • knock on effects between systems that produce beneficial impacts for society

• for: Cascade Institute - research focus

• Cascade institute - research focus

  • looking at the deep connections between converging crisis

• for: question - adaptation - answer - adaptation, adaptation - ingenuity, endogenous growth, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute

• question: adaptation

  • why do some societies successfully adapt to environmental stresses while others do not?

• answer: adaptation

  • Ingenuity
    • Researchers within societies that are able to adapt effectively are able to deliver ingenuity at the right time and place to prevent environmental problems from causing severe hardship.

• references

  • The ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1995)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1995/09/01/the-ingenuity-gap-can-poor-countries-adappt-to-resource-scarcity/
  • Resource Scaricity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1999)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1999/03/01/resource-scarcity-and-innovation-can-poor-countries-attain-endogenous-growth/
  • The Ingenuity Gap (2000)
    • http://www.ingenuitygap.com/
  • The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon, 2006)
    • https://homerdixon.com/writing/books/the-upside-of-down/

• for: social tipping point - tools, cascade institute, Boolean Causal Loop Analysis, BCLA, Cross-impact balance, CIB, socio-cognitive mapping, cognitive-affective mapping, ideological state-space

aspire to capture the cascade on a single page

Strategy span the full depth of the organisation: starting at the corporate level, going through the brand or departmental level, and finishing at the individual levels

Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.

Gleeson, J. P., Onaga, T., Fennell, P., Cotter, J., Burke, R., & O’Sullivan, D. J. P. (2020). Branching process descriptions of information cascades on Twitter. ArXiv:2007.08916 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.08916

Yang, G., Csikász-Nagy, A., Waites, W., Xiao, G., & Cavaliere, M. (2020). Information Cascades and the Collapse of Cooperation. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 8004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64800-z

Fränken, J.-P., & Pilditch, T. (2020). Cascades across networks are sufficient for the formation of echo chambers: An agent-based model. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8rgkc

Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O. A., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), 042311. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311