I think that's what we're on the cusp of right now. Now I think the anomalies have piled up too high. We're looking for a kind of systematicity
for - paradigm shift - anomalies reaching threshold - John Vervaeke
I think that's what we're on the cusp of right now. Now I think the anomalies have piled up too high. We're looking for a kind of systematicity
for - paradigm shift - anomalies reaching threshold - John Vervaeke
Drei führende Klimawissenschaftler kritisieren die Illusion der "Net Zero-Politiken", die darauf setzen, das 1,5°-Ziel durch die Entfernung von CO2 aus der Atmosphäre zu erreichen. Sie werfen vielen ihrer KollegInnen vor, unrealistischen Konzepten nicht offen entgegenzutreten, um ihren politischen Einfluss nicht zu verlieren. Sie kritisieren auch die bisherigen Integrated Assessment Models des Weltklimarats, die von der Voraussetzung ausgehen würde, die Klimakatastrophe ließe sich mit marktwirtschaftlichen Mitteln beheben und fordern auf, deutlich zu sagen, dass sich eine Erhitzung der Erde auf 3 und mehr Grad nicht durch kleine Schritte, sondern nur durch einen Bruch mit dem bisherigen Wirtschaftssystem erreichen lässt.
Anstatt uns unseren Zweifeln zu stellen, beschlossen wir Wissenschaftler, immer aufwändigere Fantasiewelten zu konstruieren, in denen wir sicher wären. Der Preis, den wir für unsere Feigheit zahlen mussten: Wir mussten den Mund halten über die immer größer werdende Absurdität der geforderten Kohlendioxid-Entfernung im planetarischen Maßstab.
Greta Thunberg hat diesen Aufsatz als einen wichtigsten und informativsten Texte zur Klima- und ökologischen Krise bezeichnet.
Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap. Thread von Greta dazu auf Twitter: https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1385869663188492290
we hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it so we we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use an 11-year running average so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it but it but it may well be that we're already in that long um like that that long run average we might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
for - quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson
quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson - (see below) - We hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - We we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use n 11-year running average - so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - But it may well be that we're already in that long run average - We might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
#suggestion
for - post comment - LinkedIn - suggestion - turn COP into a hybrid event with a maximum carbon emission threshold
static long __get_user_pages(struct mm_struct *mm, unsigned long start, unsigned long nr_pages, unsigned int gup_flags, struct page **pages, int *locked) { long ret = 0, i = 0; struct vm_area_struct *vma = NULL; struct follow_page_context ctx = { NULL }; if (!nr_pages) return 0; start = untagged_addr_remote(mm, start); VM_BUG_ON(!!pages != !!(gup_flags & (FOLL_GET | FOLL_PIN))); do { struct page *page; unsigned int foll_flags = gup_flags; unsigned int page_increm; /* first iteration or cross vma bound */ if (!vma || start >= vma->vm_end) { /* * MADV_POPULATE_(READ|WRITE) wants to handle VMA * lookups+error reporting differently. */ if (gup_flags & FOLL_MADV_POPULATE) { vma = vma_lookup(mm, start); if (!vma) { ret = -ENOMEM; goto out; } if (check_vma_flags(vma, gup_flags)) { ret = -EINVAL; goto out; } goto retry; } vma = gup_vma_lookup(mm, start); if (!vma && in_gate_area(mm, start)) { ret = get_gate_page(mm, start & PAGE_MASK, gup_flags, &vma, pages ? &page : NULL); if (ret) goto out; ctx.page_mask = 0; goto next_page; } if (!vma) { ret = -EFAULT; goto out; } ret = check_vma_flags(vma, gup_flags); if (ret) goto out; } retry: /* * If we have a pending SIGKILL, don't keep faulting pages and * potentially allocating memory. */ if (fatal_signal_pending(current)) { ret = -EINTR; goto out; } cond_resched(); page = follow_page_mask(vma, start, foll_flags, &ctx); if (!page || PTR_ERR(page) == -EMLINK) { ret = faultin_page(vma, start, &foll_flags, PTR_ERR(page) == -EMLINK, locked); switch (ret) { case 0: goto retry; case -EBUSY: case -EAGAIN: ret = 0; fallthrough; case -EFAULT: case -ENOMEM: case -EHWPOISON: goto out; } BUG(); } else if (PTR_ERR(page) == -EEXIST) { /* * Proper page table entry exists, but no corresponding * struct page. If the caller expects **pages to be * filled in, bail out now, because that can't be done * for this page. */ if (pages) { ret = PTR_ERR(page); goto out; } } else if (IS_ERR(page)) { ret = PTR_ERR(page); goto out; } next_page: page_increm = 1 + (~(start >> PAGE_SHIFT) & ctx.page_mask); if (page_increm > nr_pages) page_increm = nr_pages; if (pages) { struct page *subpage; unsigned int j; /* * This must be a large folio (and doesn't need to * be the whole folio; it can be part of it), do * the refcount work for all the subpages too. * * NOTE: here the page may not be the head page * e.g. when start addr is not thp-size aligned. * try_grab_folio() should have taken care of tail * pages. */ if (page_increm > 1) { struct folio *folio; /* * Since we already hold refcount on the * large folio, this should never fail. */ folio = try_grab_folio(page, page_increm - 1, foll_flags); if (WARN_ON_ONCE(!folio)) { /* * Release the 1st page ref if the * folio is problematic, fail hard. */ gup_put_folio(page_folio(page), 1, foll_flags); ret = -EFAULT; goto out; } } for (j = 0; j < page_increm; j++) { subpage = nth_page(page, j); pages[i + j] = subpage; flush_anon_page(vma, subpage, start + j * PAGE_SIZE); flush_dcache_page(subpage); } } i += page_increm; start += page_increm * PAGE_SIZE; nr_pages -= page_increm; } while (nr_pages); out: if (ctx.pgmap) put_dev_pagemap(ctx.pgmap); return i ? i : ret; }
Literally the actual policy logic of gup. Most important piece of code right here for gup
#ifdef CONFIG_STACK_GROWSUP return vma_lookup(mm, addr); #else static volatile unsigned long next_warn; struct vm_area_struct *vma; unsigned long now, next; vma = find_vma(mm, addr); if (!vma || (addr >= vma->vm_start)) return vma; /* Only warn for half-way relevant accesses */ if (!(vma->vm_flags & VM_GROWSDOWN)) return NULL; if (vma->vm_start - addr > 65536) return NULL; /* Let's not warn more than once an hour.. */ now = jiffies; next = next_warn; if (next && time_before(now, next)) return NULL; next_warn = now + 60*60*HZ; /* Let people know things may have changed. */ pr_warn("GUP no longer grows the stack in %s (%d): %lx-%lx (%lx)\n", current->comm, task_pid_nr(current), vma->vm_start, vma->vm_end, addr); dump_stack(); return NULL;
helper func to lookup vma(virtual mem area) that warns per hour about half way relevant acc and changes in stack
/* user gate pages are read-only */ if (gup_flags & FOLL_WRITE) return -EFAULT; if (address > TASK_SIZE) pgd = pgd_offset_k(address); else pgd = pgd_offset_gate(mm, address); if (pgd_none(*pgd)) return -EFAULT; p4d = p4d_offset(pgd, address); if (p4d_none(*p4d)) return -EFAULT; pud = pud_offset(p4d, address); if (pud_none(*pud)) return -EFAULT; pmd = pmd_offset(pud, address); if (!pmd_present(*pmd)) return -EFAULT; pte = pte_offset_map(pmd, address); if (!pte) return -EFAULT; entry = ptep_get(pte); if (pte_none(entry)) goto unmap; *vma = get_gate_vma(mm); if (!page) goto out; *page = vm_normal_page(*vma, address, entry); if (!*page) { if ((gup_flags & FOLL_DUMP) || !is_zero_pfn(pte_pfn(entry))) goto unmap; *page = pte_page(entry); } ret = try_grab_page(*page, gup_flags); if (unlikely(ret)) goto unmap;
Most of these seem like sanity checks right up until line 897 i.e, 'if(!page)'* after which we seem to unmap the page.
struct folio *folio = page_folio(page); if (WARN_ON_ONCE(folio_ref_count(folio) <= 0)) return -ENOMEM; if (unlikely(!(flags & FOLL_PCI_P2PDMA) && is_pci_p2pdma_page(page))) return -EREMOTEIO; if (flags & FOLL_GET) folio_ref_inc(folio);
checks for code that is involved in policy but is not the actual logic
if (mminit_loglevel < MMINIT_VERIFY)
This policy controls whether the function will print information about the zonelist. This decision is determined by the value of the "mminit_level" enum in "mm/internal.h".
for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details
paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository
summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting
from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/
for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated
article details - title - Overselling the Science of Social Tipping Points - author - Peter Licari, PhD - date - 11 Jjune, 2018 - publication - Medium - https://prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32
from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated - https://hyp.is/yMaQND7WEe-Q2zsiwzB5wA/jamesozden.substack.com/p/social-tipping-points-are-probably
for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points
comment - The author raises valid critique of Centola's 25% threshold. - His main critique concerns the experiment not representing real world complex scenarios and is summarized in 3 points: - The experimental method used is an oversimplification of the complexity of real world complex issues such as climate change denial and meat eating, which are deeply ingrained beliefs in many cases. - No such attachment exists in the experimental setup - In the experiment, the subjects were incentified. In complex real world issues, there is often no incentive structure - Real life isn't all 1-1 interactions
to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points - https://hyp.is/Aocs0D7WEe-knadNGOYVog/prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32
a billion will be saved by Spotify over time because they cut out all these little guys
for - Spotify - thousand stream threshold to trigger royalty payment - cuts out many producers
there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
“And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
06:06Weak Ties
25:13Complex Contagions
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This is true since I can relate to this because I once only cared about getting the question answered, the word count, sentences and correct grammar before submitting my written work. However, that has changed in me because know I feel that I can dig deeper with my writing and be able to connect to the audience I am addressing to.
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Understanding your goal as a writer is really important. In order to so you have to know your audience, topic, your connection to the topic you're writing about and background research. Without these key pieces it would be hard to be a more reflective writer.
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I agree because like trying to go to the gym daily to stay healthy and fit, writing in a way is similar because with practice you can get better with it. Without consistent practice there won’t be any beneficial progress for us writers.
So what can we make of politicians who continue to argue that ‘1.5°C is still alive’? Are they misinformed or are they simply lying?I believe many are in denial about the types of solutions the climate crisis demands. Rather than do the – admittedly – very difficult political work of eking out our supplies of fossil fuels while accelerating a just transition to post-carbon societies, politicians are going all out on technological salvation. This is a new form of climate denial, which involves imagining large-scale carbon dioxide removal that will clean up the carbon pollution that we continue to pump into the atmosphere. While it may seem much safer to stick to the script and say that it is still physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C, while pointing out that the scale of change demands much more political will, I believe that this can no longer be a credible response to the climate crisis.We have warmed the climate by 1.2°C since pre-industrial periods. If emissions stay flat at current levels, then in around nine years the carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted. And, of course, emissions are not flat – they are surging. 2021 saw the second-largest annual increase ever recorded, driven by the rebound in economic activity after Coronavirus lockdowns. We did not ‘build back better’.The clock has been stuck at five minutes to midnight for decades. Alarms have been continuing to sound. There are only so many times you can hit the snooze button.
Going all out on technological salvation is a form of climate denialism.
We are at 1.2 Deg C and emissions have climbed after rebounding after Covid. If they flatline for the next nine years, we will hit 1.5 Deg C.
We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C
Title: We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C Author: James Dyke Date: 6 July 2022
Dan Freedman, DO. (2022, February 19). No, the CDC did not quietly revise language development guidelines to hide mask induced delays. This is misinformation. The change is based on a 15 year update on the 2004 recs & a lit review performed in 2019 with the explicit goal of identifying higher risk kids. 1/ https://t.co/TlV76bIb7n [Tweet]. @dfreedman7. https://twitter.com/dfreedman7/status/1494846691752751104
Camero, K. (n.d.). If You Think You Have COVID But Your Rapid Test Is Negative, Here’s Why. BuzzFeed News. Retrieved February 4, 2022, from https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/negative-covid-test
Kan, U., Feng, M., & Porter, M. A. (2021). An Adaptive Bounded-Confidence Model of Opinion Dynamics on Networks. ArXiv:2112.05856 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.05856
Dr Ellie Murray, ScD. (2021, October 2). Everyone keeps talking about covid becoming endemic, but as I listen to the conversation, it’s becoming more & more clear to me that very few of you know what “endemic” means. So here’s a thread on how pandemics end. Https://t.co/uuYinUcynb [Tweet]. @EpiEllie. https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1444088804961304581
Andersson, P., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2021). The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b2qx8
Ingale, M., & Shekatkar, S. M. (2020). Resource dependency and survivability in complex networks. Physical Review E, 102(6), 062304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.062304
David Dowdy on Twitter: “One term I worry that we (as a public health community) have mis-messaged during the pandemic: ‘herd immunity threshold’ A non-technical thread on why this is not ‘% of the population that needs to be vaccinated for us to return to life as normal while eradicating COVID-19’... Https://t.co/5As4N9YV9N” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/davidwdowdy/status/1389791544425828357?s=20
We should think about the number of simultaneous connections (peak and average) and the message rate/payload size. I think, the threshold to start thinking about AnyCable (instead of just Action Cable) is somewhere between 500 and 1000 connections on average or 5k-10k during peak hours.
number of simultaneous connections (peak and average)
the message rate/payload size.
Stefan Rahmstorf stellt die Argumentationen dafür zusammen, dass es noch nicht unmöglich ist, das 1,5°-Ziel noch zu erreichen ist. Klima-Krise: Die neue Verwirrung um das 1,5-Grad-Ziel - DER SPIEGEL. Etwas ausführlichere Darstellung ausgehend von zwei Grafiken: Zwei Grafiken zeigen den Weg zu 1,5 Grad » KlimaLounge » SciLogs - Wissenschaftsblogs. Die Argumentation bezieht sich auf die Stellungnahme der Australischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, die feststellt, dass das 1,5°-Ziel "virtuell uneirrechbar" sei: The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world | Australian Academy of Science
The Climate Council’s new report, released today, shows the immense cost of this inaction. It is now virtually certain Earth will pass the critical 1.5℃ temperature rise this century – most likely in the 2030s.
Ein neuer Report des australischen Climate Council kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die 1,5°-Grenze "virtuell sicher" überschritten werden wird, mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit in den 2030er Jahren. Will Steffen, einer der bekanntesten Klimawissenschaftler und Mitautor wichtiger Studien über die Tipping Points, ruft dazu auf, mit aller Energie um jedes Zehntelgrad zu kämpfen. Failure is not an option. Australia must radically scale up its climate targets now | Climate change | The Guardian
Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.
H, Yu, Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, et al. “Can a COVID-19 Vaccination Program Guarantee the Return to a Pre-Pandemic Lifestyle?,” February 9, 2021. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-200069/v1.
Mancastroppa. M., Burioni. R., Colizza. V., Vezzani. A., (2020). Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks. APS Physics. Retrieved from: https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.020301
Chen, Q., & Porter, M. A. (2020). Epidemic Thresholds of Infectious Diseases on Tie-Decay Networks. ArXiv:2009.12932 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.12932
Humphries, R., Mulchrone, K., Tratalos, J., More, S., & Hövel, P. (2020). A Systematic Framework of Modelling Epidemics on Temporal Networks. ArXiv:2009.11965 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.11965
A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity. (2020, September 24). Science News. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-brazil-city-manaus-herd-immunity
Pausal Živference on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://twitter.com/PausalZ/status/1309208611265093632
Daniël Lakens on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/lakens/status/1308115862247952386
Bababekov, Y. J., Hung, Y.-C., Hsu, Y.-T., Udelsman, B. V., Mueller, J. L., Lin, H.-Y., Stapleton, S. M., & Chang, D. C. (2019). Is the Power Threshold of 0.8 Applicable to Surgical Science?—Empowering the Underpowered Study. Journal of Surgical Research, 241, 235–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2019.03.062
Peter English #FBPE on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2020, from https://twitter.com/petermbenglish/status/1296730819420196864
Mandavilli, A. (2020, August 17). What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
Ran, Y., Deng, X., Wang, X., & Jia, T. (2020). A generalized linear threshold model for an improved description of the spreading dynamics. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(8), 083127. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0011658
Aguas, R., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Goncalves, G., Ferreira, M. U., & Gomes, M. G. M. (2020). Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. MedRxiv, 2020.07.23.20160762. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762
Aleta, A., Arruda, G. F. de, & Moreno, Y. (2020). Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks. PLOS Computational Biology, 16(7), e1008035. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008035
A Marm Kilpatrick on Twitter: “What is #herdimmunity threshold for #COVID19? A topic of much discussion due to large uncertainty & huge consequences for long term impact. New paper illustrates 1 key aspect that can reduce it substantially (spoiler: we still don’t know value). Thread. https://t.co/Sgrg1yrlOq” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 27, 2020, from https://twitter.com/diseaseecology/status/1275595167936868352
Gomes, M. G. M., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Langwig, K. E., Souto-Maior, C., Carneiro, J., Goncalves, G., Penha-Goncalves, C., Ferreira, M. U., & Aguas, R. (2020). Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. MedRxiv, 2020.04.27.20081893. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893
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Mohseni-Kabir, A., Pant, M., Towsley, D., Guha, S., & Swami, A. (2020). Percolation Thresholds for Robust Network Connectivity. ArXiv:2006.14496 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14496
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Access through your institutionto view subscribed content from home OutlineDownload full text in PDFDownloadShareExportAdvancedOutlineAbstractKeywordsDiagnostic Microbiology and Infectious DiseaseAvailable online 11 June 2020, 115109In Press, Journal Pre-proofWhat are Journal Pre-proof articles?Heat inactivation decreases the Qualitative
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t is important that the threshold is set at a fixed level for all samples that are to be compared
What are threshold dates? A threshold date indicates that a task should not be started until the threshold date. Adding threshold dates is a way to indicate "future tasks". A threshold date is formatted as: t:yyyy-mm-dd.
Hide tasks containing a date threshold (t:YYYY-MM-DD) until the specified point in the future.
filter incoming lines based on date threshold hides tasks marked with a date threshold ("t:YYYY-MM-DD") in the future
threshold dates
Educational Technology Leadership and Practice in Higher Education: The Emergence of Threshold Concepts
This article explores how technology has become the new standard for higher education and this new standard has created a need to develop new concepts on how to view a subject. Additionally, methods to use educational technology resources are described. Rating: 5/5
“A threshold concept can be considered as akin to a portal, opening up a new and previously inaccessible way of thinking about something.” (p. 1)
Definition of Threshold Concept
They proposed the idea based on a round of interviews with economics faculty members.
Does this then "infect" other Bounded Spaces with Economic concepts? In other words, this idea of "Threshold concepts" works for Economics, but maybe profoundly changes other disciplines into something other than what they are?
that already today begins to connectwith future possibilities that maybe we can bring into reality
adjacent possible?