Nie przewidzisz następnego krachu na giełdzie
The video discusses the difficulty of predicting stock market crashes and the poor track record of financial experts in this area.
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Critique of Market Predictions
- A study analyzing 6,582 forecasts from 68 experts between 2005 and 2012 found that the average expert had an accuracy rate of only 46.9% (below 50%) [00:00:57].
- The study showed that better results could be achieved by simply flipping a coin [00:01:21].
- After accounting for transaction costs required to follow the advice, the study concluded that none of the experts would have earned money for an investor [00:01:31].
- The narrator suggests that financial media (like CNBC) does not publish experts' success rates because their achievements are typically only average [00:01:57].
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Notable "Prophets of Doom"
- Michael Burry: Predicted the 2008 crisis but is criticized for constantly predicting new crises annually, including recent concerns about a potential bubble in passive investing/index funds (referred to as "Kassandra" for his unheeded warnings) [00:02:47]. He notably missed the COVID-19 crash [00:03:39].
- Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan): Often joked about for predicting 22 of the last three crashes, constantly forecasting crises and recessions [00:04:03].
- Jim Cramer: Known for producing hundreds of buy/sell recommendations annually on CNBC's Mad Money, which are seen more as attention-grabbing content than sound investment advice [00:04:19].
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Why Do People Make Predictions?
- Fear Sells: Negative scenarios and "black swan" events generate high interest and attention [00:00:08], [00:04:45].
- Self-Interest: Experts may act in their own interest, potentially aiming for short-term market fluctuations to profit [00:04:53].
- Luck and Randomness: A simulation showed that purely by random chance (a 50/50 probability), 313 out of 10,000 fictional investors would have earned a profit every year for five years, showing how "gurus" can emerge through sheer luck [00:06:52].
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Investment Philosophy and Takeaways
- The focus should be on long-term investing using instruments like broad-market ETFs [00:09:45].
- Crashes are opportunities: Investors should want crashes because they allow them to buy assets at lower prices, which is beneficial for a long-term strategy [00:10:12].
- Preparation over Prediction: The key conclusion is that investors should not try to predict crises but should focus on being prepared with a sound strategy to function comfortably when corrections occur [00:10:53].
- Quote from Peter Lynch: "Investors have lost significantly more money preparing for corrections or trying to predict them than they lost on the corrections themselves" [00:09:35].