Omicron was dominant everywhere in England by Christmas

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10.1101/2022.01.04.22268755

Background There has been an unprecedented global effort to produce safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. However, production challenges, supply shortages and unequal global reach, together with an increased number of breakthrough infections due to waning of immunity and the emergence of new variants of concern (VOC), have prolonged the pandemic. To boost the immune response, several heterologous vaccination regimes have been tested and have shown increased antibody responses compared to homologous vaccination. Here we evaluated the effect of mRNA vaccine booster on immunogenicity in individuals who had been vaccinated with two doses of inactivated vaccines.Methods The levels of specific antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein from wild-type virus and the Beta, Delta and Omicron variants were measured in healthy individuals who had received two doses of homologous inactivated (BBIBP-CorV or CoronoVac) or mRNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) vaccines, and in donors who were given an mRNA vaccine boost after two doses of either vaccine. Pre-vaccinated healthy donors, or individuals who had been infected and subsequently received the mRNA vaccine were also included as controls. In addition, specific memory B and T cell responses were measured in a subset of samples.Results A booster dose of an mRNA vaccine significantly increased the level of specific antibodies that bind to the RBD domain of the wild-type (6-fold) and VOCs including Delta (8-fold) and Omicron (14-fold), in individuals who had previously received two doses of inactivated vaccines. The level of specific antibodies in the heterologous vaccination group was furthermore similar to that in individuals receiving a third dose of homologous mRNA vaccines or boosted with mRNA vaccine after natural infection. Moreover, this heterologous vaccination regime significantly enhanced the specific memory B and T cell responses.Conclusions Heterologous prime-boost immunization with inactivated vaccine followed by an mRNA vaccine boost markedly increased the levels of specific antibodies and B and T cell responses and may thus increase protection against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants including Omicron.

Heterologous immunization with inactivated vaccine followed by mRNA booster elicits strong humoral and cellular immune responses against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

Our new study: heterogeneous vaccination strategy with inactivated vaccine + mRNA booster elicits strong B and T cell response against the WT and VOC including Omicron @VirusesImmunity

“I want my life back” is a hell of a thing to say much less publish when 5.5 million people have actually lost their actual lives.

Coronavirus variants: Where do they come from? How do we spot them? What do they mean for COVID vaccines, and future of the pandemic?

Valentine reportedly changed his tune on vaccination after getting COVID, but it was too late. Here are a few of the tweets he sent in the months leading up to his (preventable) death.

Right-wing talk radio host Phil Valentine just died of COVID-19. He promoted vaccine skepticism until he himself got sick with the virus.

So, Bob Enyart is actually the *sixth* right-wing radio host to die of COVID in the past 6 weeks.

Conservative radio host Phil Valentine — who told those who weren’t “high risk” not to get vaccinated and estimated that his odds of dying if he got COVID were “way less than one percent” — died of COVID in August. He changed his mind on vaccines in the end.

Conservative/religious radio host Jimmy DeYoung — who said the vaccine was a form of government control and suggested it was being used to sterilize people — died of COVID in August.

Conservative radio host Tod Tucker — who mocked vaccination and called people who got the vaccine “lab rats” — died of COVID in August.

Conservative talk show host Dick Farrel — who called the pandemic a “scamdemic” and claimed that the vaccine is “bogus bull [shit]” — died of COVID in August. He urged people to get vaccinated from his deathbed.

Marc Bernier, a conservative radio host from Florida who called himself “Mr. Anti-Vax”, died of COVID-19 in August.

Right-wing radio host Bob Enyart — a staunch anti-vaccine, anti-mask, anti-abortion, anti-gay “firebrand” who used to mock the deaths of people with AIDS — just died of COVID-19. He is the 5th right-wing radio host to die of COVID in the past 6 weeks.

The domain sending that fake NHS vaccine consent hoax form to schools has been suspended. Excellent work by @martincampbell2 and fast co-operation by @kualo FYI @fascinatorfun @Kit_Yates_Maths @dgurdasani1 @AThankless

Just for anyone interested in why this is a piece of crap.

UPDATE. Great work @martincampbell2

Some debunking of the form here:

Suffice to say the form is not produced by the NHS. Almost everything on the form is misinformation designed to induce vaccine hesitancy or worse. Head teachers please take note.

This is absolutely despicable. This bogus “consent form” is being sent to schools and some are unquestioningly sending it out with the real consent form when arranging for vaccination their pupils. Please spread the message and warn other parents to ignore this disinformation.

Vaccine induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (VITT) is caused by anti-platelet factor 4 (PF4) antibodies that arise following covid-19 vaccination and lead to intense activation of platelets and the coagulation systemSymptoms begin 5 to 30 days after covid-19 vaccination and include severe or unusual headaches, new unexplained pinprick bruising or bleeding, shortness of breath, leg swelling, or persistent abdominal painThrombosis affects the cerebral veins in 50% of cases, but any arterial or venous vascular bed may be involved and around one third of patients have thrombosis in multiple sitesManagement includes anticoagulation with non-heparin based anticoagulants, which should be started as soon as possible, and intravenous immunoglobulinVITT is rare, but thrombotic sequelae can be life threatening and require unconventional management. Report all cases urgently and inform vaccine recipients of when to seek medical attention

10.1136/bmj.n2195

Practice Guidelines Vaccine induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis: summary of NICE guidance

Portugal is among the most highly vaccinated countries in the world. Vice Adm. Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who led the campaign, said there was a key to his success: Keep politics out of it.

In Portugal, There Is Virtually No One Left to Vaccinate

98% of those eligible, aged 12 and older, are fully vaccinated A remarkable public health achievement

10.1038/s41591-021-01575-4

The effectiveness of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) BNT162b2 vaccine in preventing disease and reducing viral loads of breakthrough infections (BTIs) has been decreasing, concomitantly with the rise of the Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, it is unclear whether the observed decreased effectiveness of the vaccine in reducing viral loads is inherent to the Delta variant or is dependent on time from immunization. By analyzing viral loads of over 16,000 infections during the current, Delta-variant-dominated pandemic wave in Israel, we found that BTIs in recently fully vaccinated individuals have lower viral loads than infections in unvaccinated individuals. However, this effect starts to decline 2 months after vaccination and ultimately vanishes 6 months or longer after vaccination. Notably, we found that the effect of BNT162b2 on reducing BTI viral loads is restored after a booster dose. These results suggest that BNT162b2 might decrease the infectiousness of BTIs even with the Delta variant, and that, although this protective effect declines with time, it can be restored, at least temporarily, with a third, booster, vaccine dose.

Viral loads of Delta-variant SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections after vaccination and booster with BNT162b2

10.1038/s41576-021-00408-x

The past several months have witnessed the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with novel spike protein mutations that are influencing the epidemiological and clinical aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These variants can increase rates of virus transmission and/or increase the risk of reinfection and reduce the protection afforded by neutralizing monoclonal antibodies and vaccination. These variants can therefore enable SARS-CoV-2 to continue its spread in the face of rising population immunity while maintaining or increasing its replication fitness. The identification of four rapidly expanding virus lineages since December 2020, designated variants of concern, has ushered in a new stage of the pandemic. The four variants of concern, the Alpha variant (originally identified in the UK), the Beta variant (originally identified in South Africa), the Gamma variant (originally identified in Brazil) and the Delta variant (originally identified in India), share several mutations with one another as well as with an increasing number of other recently identified SARS-CoV-2 variants. Collectively, these SARS-CoV-2 variants complicate the COVID-19 research agenda and necessitate additional avenues of laboratory, epidemiological and clinical research.

The biological and clinical significance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

Israeli data adds to mounting evidence that taking a COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy is safe.

Study finds no increased risk of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy

So there we are - rising cases in kids & their parents' generation, falling cases elsewhere, A high burden of Covid continues. I don't know how vax in teens, some immunity from high infections this summer plays out against autumn & people returning to normal behaviour.

In fact many countries in Europe are not seeing big surges in children - a combination of vaccination (starting at different times over summer) and mitigations in schools (bubbles, masks, ventilation) & lower community case rates.

Other countries that vaccinated teens are not seeing big back to school spikes in teens (but some are in primary school kids). E.g. Ireland... where cases in teens much lower than England but primary school kids about the same...

Many of these cases could have been prevented with vaccination over the summer. It already looks like it (+ prev infection?) *might* be having an impact in 16-18 year olds... at least they're the only year groups where cases fell over last 2 weeks instead of climbed.

ONS infection survey (to 18 Sept) also shows cases highest and rising in school age children. over 1 in 50 children had Covid that week.

The number of children testing positive this term has already almost exceeded the number testing positive over the whole of the summer term. (158K vs 172K). Estimates of Long Covid in kids range from 2%-14% - even 2% of 158K is 3,000 children developing Long covid...

Hospitalisations in 6-17 year olds were dropping steeply at the beginning of September (corresponding to the late Aug flattening in cases?) but are now rising steeply again - only children have rising admission rates at the moment.

In England, case rates in 5-14 are higher than their July peak - about 1.4% of all 10-14 year olds tested positive last week! Cases also going up again in 15-19 year olds. And in 30-59 yr olds - the ages most likely to be parents of school children. Following Scotland?

In Wales, cases have been going up steeply in under 17s. In N. Ireland, we've seen similar record breaking rates in 5-14 year olds.

And we are seeing that hospital admissions in their parents' generation have been going up - in fact are higher now than they've ever been in the pandemic despite high vaccination.

Cases in Under 15s in Scotland remain high but have come down quickly over the last 10 days or so - and we are seeing a drop in admissions in children too which is good. But a *lot* of children were infected in the first month of term - over 5% of all children under 15.

Regionally, cases are high all over Wales and in England concentrated in the Midlands and Yorks - lowest of all in London (!). That pattern is seen in positivity rates too so it's not just testing.

By nation, cases are going up in Wales and England but dropping in Scotland and dropping more slowing in NI. Similar pattern seen in ONS infection survey (but Scotland not dropping yet - always takes a few weeks for drops in cases to show in ONS)

Hospitalisations are going down in all nations (good!) and deaths might just be starting to go down too - although we've been averaging over 130 a day for several weeks now and over 8,000 people have died since 1 July.

Yes hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than Jan peak - but they are still higher than a year ago and all these cases will be lead to many people develop long covid unfortunately, including some children.

Cases are going up again in the UK - and we've now had substantially more confirmed cases in the Delta wave than the Alpha one. In a few weeks we'll have had more cases than we had between Sept 2020 and May 2021.

On tests - the number of lateral flow tests done (or rather, reported!) has really varied with big "back to school" spikes that then drop off. We're seeing that again now - and the drop off is mainly in students and not staff. Hard to say how this affects case numbers.

There are big gaps in full vaccination uptake between the most and least deprived communities, and lower uptake in ethnic minorities. This hasn't really improved over the last 6 months - whatever is being tried doesn't seem to be working.

Vaccination update to start: we've got good vaccination coverage - and excellent in older age groups. Almost 60% of 16/17 year olds have had one dose of vaccine in England (higher in Scotland). BUT

THREAD (a bit delayed) on UK & covid: TLDR: flattish cases overall are masking differences between nations, regions & age groups. And we're still out of whack with Europe.

Researchers with The COVID States Project asked 20,000 people across the nation about whether they believe four debunked claims about COVID vaccines: That the shots alter DNA, implant trackable microchips, cause infertility or contain tissue from aborted fetuses.

Who Is Most Susceptible To COVID Misinformation?

This is what caving to political pressure looks like. Pfizer vaccine is leady and non-durable and risks are mounting. If we had tried to pulled this kind of sh**T in the Trump White...fill in blank. F.D.A. Grants Full Approval

Great to see numbers continuing to climb; seems like they’re climbing maybe as fast as supply allows!

For the under 60s, it is a bit more complicated. Under 50s have Pfizer with a gap of 3-6 weeks. Let's assume 4. For those in their 50s, they first had AZ and are now getting Pfizer - a 4-week gap doesn't work so well atm, but might work better in future. But for other ages?

With those assumptions, this is the projection for all age cohorts getting 2 doses... Australia might get 70% of the 16+ cohort double vaxxed in the middle of October (with some extrapolation by eye).

A ten week gap between AZ doses means that we expect almost 90% of those 70+ years old to be double dosed by early Nov (dashed lines). The actual double dose rates are soli lines. The 10-week gap looks an OK assumption. We'll see in a couple of weeks.

So that is first doses. What does it mean for second dose coverage in future? Well, let's play around with that...

In Australia, the over 60s are getting AstraZeneca. The recommended time between doses varies a bit. It was initially 12 weeks, but that has been reduced in some outbreak areas. Let's assume 10 weeks as a rough average.

Vax rates in the last week are highest in the youngsters. #WithaRocket

#COVD19 vax rates are still increasing in Australia. The over 70s are approaching 90% with first doses. The red line is the rate for all people >=16. That should reach 60% soon.

COVID-19's delta variant means it's 'absolutely essential' to protect children from infection, experts say

Here's the link to the article again Thanks @sophiescott2, @leonie_thorne and @NjbBari3

"Not allowing #COVID19 to circulate in Australia has already done a lot to help protect kids We've got excellent opportunity in Australia to learn from around the world - so many studies showing us what the risks are & also showing us great ways out of that situation

"With younger children <12, we know now they can get #COVID19 & can even die, however research still being done about whether vaccines are safe & effective for them It's important we let research & approval play out so we know about safety and efficacy of these vaccines for kids

"Vaccines for children likely to be part of solution Right now, #COVID19 vaccines in Australia only approved for ppl >16 & older. In US, UK & Canada, teens age 12 & up are already receiving them It's likely COVID-19 vaccines will eventually be approved for use in older children

"We want to keep kids at school as much as possible, so that (with these measures) school closures should only be very rarely necessary Now we know #COVID19 is airborne, we know that masks do help to limit transmission

"In situations when ventilation is difficult, such as bad weather, HEPA filters & other methods can help There's really good evidence coming in from around the world that HEPA filters are getting rid of aerosols in rooms, and that's what we need to be worried about #COVID19

"There are ways to protect children without vaccinations Rather than going straight for closing schools, we can look at having masks & look at ventilation in schools Carbon dioxide monitors are an easy way to work out if ventilation in classrooms is adequate #COVID19

"While full extent of the long-term effects of #COVID19 on kids is not yet known, experts are concerned "UK recently set up >10 specialised clinics to help kids w long COVID symptoms Data show 7-8% kids <16 report symptoms 12wks after COVID-19, UK's National Health Service says

"We now know...children transmit #COVID19, children do get sick from COVID, including long COVID, & they can die "Happens less than adults, but the risk is real "In the US alone, several hundred children have died from COVID & there is unknown number that will have long COVID"

#COVID19 & kids "Doctors say Australia needs to better protect school kids from #COVID19 through measures incl masks & vaccination" Thanks @sophiescott2 & @leonie_thorne @abcnews for informed & non alarmist article feat me & @NjbBari3 Thread #LongCovid #LongCovidKids

Much more detail in this thread for those who are interested. There are many things, like ventilation improvements, which will help, as well as vaccines for older kids & perhaps younger, if proven to be safe and effective in younger age groups

And follow these Australian docs & experts who've repeatedly made good calls on #COVID19 Compassionate, informed, visionary & trustworthy: @Globalbiosec @CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole @kate_cole_ @rajah_mich @drajm @venessb @YouAreLobbyLud

To be clear, I’m not talking about Australia but about other places, like UK, where this idea is forming Why we, one of the best #COVID19 performers, would want to emulate countries that have had such catastrophic outcomes is totally beyond me

As a pediatrician I'm going on record saying that allowing kids to be freely infected with a novel disease that has unknown long term consequences is the worst idea of 2021 despite being a pretty crowded field so far #COVID19

A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective against Delta, or vaccine efficacy wanes after 4-6 months. This has fueled anti-vaccine sentiment suggesting the vaccines are not working, and causing much stress in vaccinated people that they are not as protected as they thought they would be.

Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?

As a result it is going to take more than the sort of soundbite information we see in headlines to determine what is going on. As the Simpson’s paradox example illustrates, confounding can be a bear. Fortunately there are good people looking into these things in depth.

To be clear, I’m not arguing that one time slice of hospitalization numbers rules out waning or reduced efficacy against delta. I am trying to illustrate how VE calculated from aggregate numbers can be badly confounded and even trends from aggregate numbers can be misleading.

While I linked to him it in the second post and quoted from his blog subsequently, I want to again stress that this is @jsm2334’s observation. I came across it his blog. Please give him a follow for interesting and insightful COVID analysis.

7. As I mentioned, I have not spent enough time with the data to be 100% confident that this explains everything happening in Israel. That said, it does seem to be a strong alternative hypothesis to vaccine escape / waning, and merits serious consideration.

6. I believe it also explains the apparent drop in VE over time. When % vaxxed is low across the board, the association between being unvaxxed and being young is weak. As vaccine coverage increases to Israel levels, that association strengthens, driving the Simpson's paradox.

5. You may recognize this as an instance of Simpson's paradox. In this case, both cohorts have a much higher VE than the VE of the two cohorts aggregated together. This seems paradoxical, but results from the confounding described above.

4. This results are confounded by age. Irrespective of disease status most unvaxxed are young; irrespective of vaccine status most severe disease cases are old. This creates counterintuitive statistical result. VE overall is far lower than VE in under 50 or in people over 50.

3. Thanks also to @dylanhmorris who brought it to my attention, and @jbakcoleman and @BillHanage for discussion. The basic story is this: Looking at active severe cases in Israel we have 16.4/100K among unvaxxed and 5.3/100K among vaxxed. That looks like a mere 67.5% VE. But…

2. While I 've not spent enough time with the raw data to be willing to make absolute claims, I suspect this apparent decline may be an artifact; I think we can explain why; and I think this needs to be looked at seriously. @jsm2334 laid out the argument:

1. There has been lots of talk about recent data from Israel that seem to suggest a decline in vaccine efficacy against severe disease due to Delta, waning protection, or both. This may have even been a motivation for Biden's announcement that the US would be adopting boosters.

10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00157-0

Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in people living with and without HIV in South Africa: an interim analysis of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1B/2A trial

BackgroundPeople living with HIV are at an increased risk of fatal outcome when admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19 compared with HIV-negative individuals. We aimed to assess safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in people with HIV and HIV-negative individuals in South Africa.MethodsIn this ongoing, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1B/2A trial (COV005), people with HIV and HIV-negative participants aged 18–65 years were enrolled at seven South African locations and were randomly allocated (1:1) with full allocation concealment to receive a prime-boost regimen of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, with two doses given 28 days apart. Eligibility criteria for people with HIV included being on antiretroviral therapy for at least 3 months, with a plasma HIV viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. In this interim analysis, safety and reactogenicity was assessed in all individuals who received at least one dose of ChAdOx1 nCov 19 between enrolment and Jan 15, 2021. Primary immunogenicity analyses included participants who received two doses of trial intervention and were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative at baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04444674, and the Pan African Clinicals Trials Registry, PACTR202006922165132.FindingsBetween June 24 and Nov 12, 2020, 104 people with HIV and 70 HIV-negative individuals were enrolled. 102 people with HIV (52 vaccine; 50 placebo) and 56 HIV-negative participants (28 vaccine; 28 placebo) received the priming dose, 100 people with HIV (51 vaccine; 49 placebo) and 46 HIV-negative participants (24 vaccine; 22 placebo) received two doses (priming and booster). In participants seronegative for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline, there were 164 adverse events in those with HIV (86 vaccine; 78 placebo) and 237 in HIV-negative participants (95 vaccine; 142 placebo). Of seven serious adverse events, one severe fever in a HIV-negative participant was definitely related to trial intervention and one severely elevated alanine aminotranferase in a participant with HIV was unlikely related; five others were deemed unrelated. One person with HIV died (unlikely related). People with HIV and HIV-negative participants showed vaccine-induced serum IgG responses against wild-type Wuhan-1 Asp614Gly (also known as D614G). For participants seronegative for SARS-CoV-2 antigens at baseline, full-length spike geometric mean concentration (GMC) at day 28 was 163·7 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (95% CI 89·9–298·1) for people with HIV (n=36) and 112·3 BAU/mL (61·7–204·4) for HIV-negative participants (n=23), with a rising day 42 GMC booster response in both groups. Baseline SARS-CoV-2 seropositive people with HIV demonstrated higher antibody responses after each vaccine dose than did people with HIV who were seronegative at baseline. High-level binding antibody cross-reactivity for the full-length spike and receptor-binding domain of the beta variant (B.1.351) was seen regardless of HIV status. In people with HIV who developed high titre responses, predominantly those who were receptor-binding domain seropositive at enrolment, neutralising activity against beta was retained.InterpretationChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was well tolerated, showing favourable safety and immunogenicity in people with HIV, including heightened immunogenicity in SARS-CoV-2 baseline-seropositive participants. People with HIV showed cross-reactive binding antibodies to the beta variant and Asp614Gly wild-type, and high responders retained neutralisation against beta.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the South African Medical Research Council.

In October 2019, a month or so before Covid-19 began to spread from the industrial Chinese city of Wuhan, Steven Taylor, an Australian psychologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, published what would turn out to be a remarkably prophetic book, The Psychology of Pandemics.

‘No one wanted to read’ his book on pandemic psychology – then Covid hit

Massive UK study of COVID-19 cases shows that people who are jabbed have good immunity at first, but quickly become more vulnerable to the fast-spreading Delta variant.

COVID vaccines protect against Delta, but their effectiveness wanes

More incredible support for the @VaccineEmoji today! Thanks to Dr. Faust, Dr. Cleavon, and hundreds of other people who have shared our posts This can happen if we keep pushing it! Pass this amazing emoji along

Amid a COVID surge in Africa, vaccine promises from richer nations are not enough to bring an early end to the pandemic, experts say.

COVID vaccines to reach poorest countries in 2023 — despite recent pledges

10.31234/osf.io/eywjk

There is great theoretical and applied interest in understanding the psychology of risk - but what are defining features of lay people's semantic representation of this concept? We contribute a new approach to mapping the semantics of risk based on word associations that promises to provide insight into individual and group differences. Specifically, we introduce a novel mini-snowball word-association paradigm and use the tools of network and sentiment analysis to characterize the semantics of "risk" from 1,205 respondents (age range = 18-86; 50\% female). We find that association-based representations extend those extracted from past survey- and text-based approaches to the semantics of risk. Crucially, we show that the semantics of risk vary systematically across demographic groups, with older and female respondents showing more negative connotations and mentioning more often certain types of activities (e.g., recreational activities) relative to younger adults and males, respectively. Our work has implications for the measurement of risk-related constructs by suggesting that "risk" means different things to different individuals.

On the semantic representation of risk

10.31234/osf.io/6axc7

Policy-makers and the general public have made decisions using COVID-19 data visualizations that have affected the health of the global population. However, the impact that such wide use of data visualizations has had on people's beliefs about their personal risk for COVID-19 is unclear. We conducted two experiments (N = 2,549) during the height of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States to examine if real-time COVID-19 visualizations influenced participants' beliefs about the risk of the pandemic to themselves and others. This work also examined the impact of two elements of COVID-19 data visualizations, data properties (cumulative- vs. incident-death metrics) and uncertainty visualization techniques (historical data only, and forecasts with no uncertainty, vs. nine uncertainty visualization techniques). The results revealed that viewing COVID-19 visualizations with rising trends resulted in participants believing themselves and others at greater risk than before viewing the COVID-19 visualizations. Further, uncertainty visualization techniques that showed six or more models evoked the largest increases in risk estimates compared to the visualizations tested. These results could inform the design of public pandemic risk communication.

Effects of COVID-19 Uncertainty Visualizations on Novice Risk Estimates

10.31234/osf.io/djm3a

Ideological convictions are known to shape attitudes and behaviour in various life domains. Based on existing psychological analyses of political ideology, we use an ideological dual-process approach to explain people’s vaccine hesitancy, in which distinguish between authoritarian (RWA) and hierarchical (SDO) facets of conservatism as potential antecedents of vaccination attitudes. In a large international study performed in Germany (N = 1210), Poland (N = 1209), and the United Kingdom (N = 1222), we tested the roles of SDO and RWA in predicting vaccination hesitancy, as well as cross-cultural universality of the the pattern of relationships between political ideologies and attitudes toward vaccines. In all three countries, high SDO was associated with higher vaccine hesitancy, whereas high RWA was associated with lower vaccine hesitancy. These findings contribute to our understanding of the distinctive roles that these two facets of right-wing ideology might play in the domain of public health.

The Politics of Vaccine Hesitancy: An Ideological Dual-Process Approach

10.31234/osf.io/a8yxf

Face masks slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but it has been unknown whether masks influence how individuals communicate emotion through facial expressions. Masks could influence how accurately—or how quickly—individuals perceive expressions, and how rapidly they accumulate evidence for emotion. Over two independent pre-registered studies, conducted three and six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, participants judged expressions of 6 emotions (anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise) with the lower or upper face “masked” or unmasked. Participants in Study 1 (N = 228) identified expressions above chance with lower face masks. However, they were less likely—and slower—to correctly identify these expressions versus without masks, and they accumulated evidence for emotion more slowly—via decreased drift rate in drift-diffusion modeling. This pattern replicated and intensified three months later in Study 2 (N = 264). These data could inform interventions to promote mask wearing by addressing concerns with emotion communication.

Face masks influence how facial expressions are perceived: A drift-diffusion model of emotion judgments

10.31234/osf.io/tjz32

This study examined the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on American daily life. In May 2020, adults living in the United States (N=345; 63% European American; 64% male) completed an online survey on their functioning, psychological stress, and health locus of control. Inductive thematic analysis was used to identify themes in qualitative responses about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Themes included, but were not limited to, impacts on employment and finances (“I have not been paid a dime for the last eight weeks”), physical distancing practices (“I have left my neighborhood three times in eight weeks”), work environment (“I am working from home”), emotional well-being (“I feel stressed, anxious, and nervous pretty much all the time”), and social support (“I miss seeing and being with my friends and family”). Results showed moderate correlations between changes in mood and concentration, time spent caregiving and quality of caregiving, quality of social interactions and quality of work, quality of social interactions and mood, time spent working and quality of work, and number of social interactions and quality of social interactions. Being an essential worker and holding beliefs that health is determined by others and chance but not themselves was associated with increased psychological stress; holding beliefs that health is determined by others and chance also predicted changes in functioning. These findings supplement existing knowledge about the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and highlight opportunities for promoting well-being and functioning as Americans recover from consequent health, economic, and social stressors.

A mixed methods study of the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on American life