The pandemic’s true death toll. (2021, November 1). The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Atomsk’s Sanakan. (2021, March 27). 1/J John Ioannidis published an article defending his low estimate of COVID-19’s fatality rate. It contains so many distortions that I’ll try something I’ve never done on Twitter for a paper: Go thru distortions page-by-page. This will take awhile. 😑 https://t.co/4wonxc6MFg https://t.co/AyV5RiwQnh [Tweet]. @AtomsksSanakan. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1375935382139834373

Adam, D. (2022). COVID’s true death toll: Much higher than official records. Nature, 603(7902), 562–562. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00708-0

Trevor Bedford on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 March 2022, from https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466076761427304453

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved February 13, 2022, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11february2022

Adam Kucharski. (2022, February 8). Below figure being widely shared (from: Https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm), but think it’s important to include uncertainty (i.e. 95% confidence intervals) when reporting estimates: Cloth mask: 56% (-17%-83%) lower odds than no mask Surgical mask: 66% (10%-87%) N95/KN95: 83% (36%-95%) https://t.co/SkPhF7CAJf [Tweet]. @AdamJKucharski. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1490946644837543938

Incidence of Omicron: One-in-five Canadians report COVID-19 infection in their household since Dec. 1. (2022, January 31). Angus Reid Institute. https://angusreid.org/omicron-incidence-restrictions/

Edwards, E. (n.d.). Nearly 1 million pediatric Covid cases reported last week. Retrieved January 21, 2022, from https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/nearly-1-million-pediatric-covid-cases-reported-last-week-rcna12631

ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 7). Given an estimate whereby the average person knows ca. 600 people, assuming 50% vaxxed, the average person would know 8 people who died of the vaccine. It is hard to believe numeracy is so low that people cannot see how crazy these “statistics” are... [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1468163579069280258

Deepti Gurdasani on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 14 November 2021, from https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1459137846955196419

Douglas, L. (2021, October 28). Coronavirus infections at U.S. meat plants far higher than previous estimates -House subcommittee. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/coronavirus-infections-us-meat-plants-far-higher-than-previous-estimates-house-2021-10-27/

Peeples, L. (2021). COVID reinfections likely within one or two years, models propose. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02825-8

Shematologist, MD on Twitter: “How it started. How it’s going. Https://t.co/il5DWFm11W” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2021, from https://twitter.com/acweyand/status/1442304094945873922

Dr Nisreen Alwan 🌻 on Twitter: “New @ONS #LongCovid estimates published today: 1.1 MILLION (1.7% of the whole UK population). Up from the summer estimate of 1.5%. 211,000 people with daily activities ‘limited a lot’. Greatest % in working age (35-69y). Rising prevalence in 17-24y. A tsunami of chronic illness.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2021, from https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1446110337753829379

MicroCOVID Project. (n.d.). Retrieved August 11, 2021, from https://www.microcovid.org

“Prevalence of Ongoing Symptoms Following Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics.” Accessed August 11, 2021. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/alldatarelatingtoprevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk.

Center For Global Development. “Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Accessed August 11, 2021. https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.

The Indian Express. “Why We Need to Count the Covid Dead,” July 20, 2021. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-covid-deaths-second-wave-7412619/.

Juliet Pulliam, PhD. (2021, June 28). My take (3/4): The last 15 months have been brutal for those of us in SA, as in most of the world. The next few months will continue to try us. Vaccination brings our best hope of making COVID manageable. [Tweet]. @SACEMAdirector. https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/status/1409392605901864962

ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 8). RT @EricTopol: The variants of concern/interest fall into a spectrum of immune evasiveness, w/ B.1.351 being most; B.1.1.7, B.1.429 least.… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1397697142769152001

Padilla, L., Hosseinpour, H., Fygenson, R., Howell, J., Chunara, R., & Bertini, E. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 Uncertainty Visualizations on Novice Risk Estimates. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6axc7

David Fisman. (2021, July 8). Fascinating new preprint on delta vs older variants in well-investigated outbreaks in China. Viral load for delta is 3 log higher, and latent period is shorter too (estimate is 4 days vs 6 days). This may explain much higher R estimates which may be due to elevated viral load [Tweet]. @DFisman. https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1413126886570536963

Castro, M. C., Gurzenda, S., Turra, C. M., Kim, S., Andrasfay, T., & Goldman, N. (2021). Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z

See how age and illnesses change the risk of dying from covid-19 | The Economist. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2021, from https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

Lipsitch, M., & Kahn, R. (2021). Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission. Vaccine, 39(30), 4082–4088. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.06.011

Shapiro, J., Dean, N. E., Madewell, Z. J., Yang, Y., Halloran, M. E., & Longini, I. (2021). Efficacy Estimates for Various COVID-19 Vaccines: What we Know from the Literature and Reports [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461

Phil Magness. (2021, April 18). Fixed version: Here’s how the Imperial College model of Neil Ferguson performed over 1 year. I used their most conservative R0 assumption, so this is actually generous to them. Https://t.co/vVJJ629jO0 [Tweet]. @PhilWMagness. https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1383870801309360135

Covid One Year Ago on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 3 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1367044325054423041

Edwards, F., Lee, H., & Esposito, M. (2019). Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(34), 16793–16798. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1821204116

Eric Topol on Twitter: “The variants of concern/interest fall into a spectrum of immune evasiveness, w/ B.1.351 being most; B.1.1.7, B.1.429 least. This property pertains to potential for reinfection & some reduction in vaccine efficacy My prelim estimates based on publications/preprints, subject to Δ https://t.co/fQZwBCUEGS” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1380203664317456385

Benjy Renton on Twitter: “For those who are wondering: There is a slight association (r = 0.34) between the percentage a county voted for Trump in 2020 and estimated hesitancy levels. As @JReinerMD mentioned, GOP state, county and local levels need to do their part to promote vaccination. Https://t.co/ZY2lUqHgLd” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1382330404586274817

(20) ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @AdamJKucharski: Summary of severity estimates for B.1.1.7 👇 Important to distinguish whether we’re talking about risk of death/ICU/hosp…’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 24 April 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1381927066258571274

Kidman, R., Margolis, R., Smith-Greenaway, E., & Verdery, A. M. (2021). Estimates and Projections of COVID-19 and Parental Death in the US. JAMA Pediatrics. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.0161

Ioannidis, John P. A. (2020) ‘The Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Inferred from Seroprevalence Data’. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253.

Biggs, A. T., & Littlejohn, L. F. (2021). Revisiting the initial COVID-19 pandemic projections. The Lancet Microbe, 2(3), e91–e92. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00029-X

Cookson, C. (2020, March 24). Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population—Oxford study. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

WIRED. (2020, September 12). How does a Sturgis-sized crowd affect COVID-19? It’s complicated. Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/how-does-a-sturgis-sized-crowd-affect-covid-19-its-complicated/

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot: England and Wales, 11 September 2020. (n.d.). GOV.UK. Retrieved September 15, 2020, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11september2020

GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the second quarter of 2020: GDP down by 11.8% and employment down by 2.9% in the euro area. (n.d.). Retrieved September 9, 2020, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-press-releases/-/2-08092020-AP

Joshua Salomon on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SalomonJA/status/1302767010367983616

Aziz, N. A., Corman, V. M., Echterhoff, A. K. C., Richter, A., Schmandke, A., Schmidt, M. L., Schmidt, T. H., Vries, F. M. D., Drosten, C., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2020). Seroprevalence and correlates of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies: Results from a population-based study in Bonn, Germany. MedRxiv, 2020.08.24.20181206. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20181206

GDP and employment flash estimates for the second quarter of 2020: GDP down by 12.1% and employment down by 2.8% in the euro area. (n.d.). Retrieved August 29, 2020, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-press-releases/-/2-14082020-AP

Hamzelou, J. (2020, June 17). How many of us are likely to have caught the coronavirus so far? New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632873-000-how-many-of-us-are-likely-to-have-caught-the-coronavirus-so-far/

Clark, A., Jit, M., Warren-Gash, C., Guthrie, B., Wang, H. H. X., Mercer, S. W., Sanderson, C., McKee, M., Troeger, C., Ong, K. L., Checchi, F., Perel, P., Joseph, S., Gibbs, H. P., Banerjee, A., Eggo, R. M., Nightingale, E. S., O’Reilly, K., Jombart, T., … Jarvis, C. I. (2020). Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: A modelling study. The Lancet Global Health, S2214109X20302643. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30264-3

Azad, A. (2020, May 22). CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don’t have symptoms. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

COVID-19 estimate downloads. (2020, April 2). Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads

Beyer-Hunt, S., Carter, J., Goh, A., Li, N., & Natamanya, S.M. (2020, May 14) COVID-19 and the Politics of Knowledge: An Issue and Media Source Primer. SPIN. https://secrecyresearch.com/2020/05/14/covid19-spin-primer/

Russell, T.W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N.,Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C.I., van Zandvoort, K., Flasche, S., Eggo, R., Edmunds, W.J., Kucharski., A.J. (2020, March 22). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. CMMID Repository. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html

Contacted with an estimate 5/15/2018 -Sharon