这一段落揭示了当前训练方法的问题：没有区分模型是通过深思熟虑还是偶然猜对答案，导致模型过度自信。

这一描述揭示了当前AI模型普遍存在的过度自信问题，即无论正确与否，都给出同样坚定的答案。

Eine neue Studie stellt fest, dass nach einem Überschreiten der 1,5°-Grenze eine Rückkehr zu niedrigeren Temperaturen nicht so realistisch ist, wie es vielfach, auch in den Sachstandsberichten des IPCC, angenommen wird. Außerdem würden die erhöhten Temperaturen viele Ökosysteme irreversibel verändern. Es müssten deshalb - im Gegensatz zur aktuellen Politik - alle Anstrengungen unternommen werden, um.einen Overshoot zu vermeiden. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat-un-depassement-meme-temporaire-des-15c-serait-plus-risque-quimagine-20241010_UHQSL4EKERFVPNP5V6KNV3IGWI/?redirected=1

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/09/overshoot-climate-targets-one-point-five/?_pml=1

Moore, D. A., Backus, M., & Little, A. T. (2021). Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/evcx2

Lyons, Benjamin A., Jacob M. Montgomery, Andrew M. Guess, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler. ‘Overconfidence in News Judgments Is Associated with False News Susceptibility’. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 23 (8 June 2021). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019527118.

Kieran, R., moloney, carolyn, Kennedy, J., Lowery, M. A., Grant, C., Gallagher, D. J., O’Donnell, D. M., Kelleher, F., Sukor, S., McCarthy, M. T., & Cuffe, S. (2020). Patient self-reported awareness of COVID: Overconfidence in knowledge, underestimation of risk. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 38(29_suppl), 174–174. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2020.38.29_suppl.174

Carroll, P. (2020, August 20). The Cognitive Biases Behind Society’s Response to COVID-19 | Patrick Carroll. https://fee.org/articles/the-cognitive-biases-behind-societys-response-to-covid-19/

Angner, E. (2020, May 11). "Terrific assessment of projections of demand for Swedish ICU beds. The first two panels are model-based projections by academics; the third is a simple extrapolation by the public-health authority; the fourth is the actual outcome /1." Twitter. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1260121561861939200

Attali, Y., Budescu, D., & Arieli-Attali, M. (2020). An item response approach to calibration of confidence judgments. Decision, 7(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000111

Winman, A., Hansson, P., & Juslin, P. (2004). Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30(6), 1167–1175. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502

Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101(3), 519–527. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.101.3.519

Moore, D. A., & Schatz, D. (2020). Overprecision increases subsequent surprise [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wfcbv

Angner, E. (2006). Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Methodology, 13(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501780600566271

Can we count on parents to help their children learn at home? (2020, May 8). Evidence for Action. https://blogs.unicef.org/evidence-for-action/can-we-count-on-parents-to-help-their-children-learn-at-home/

Katherine Milkman en Twitter: “Overconfidence is a pernicious bias, even in experts. It’s astounding how few experts’’ confidence intervals included the correct estimate of #COVID19 infections in the US by 3/29 when forecasting for just two weeks in the future. (of course, non-expert estimates are even worse) https://t.co/pa6oMDp2wV" / Twitter.” (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291

In the play, Julius Caesar dies early on in a very mundane manner, with not much being revealed about his character to the audience, lest that he was extremely overconfident in his position and status, and believed his eternal status and power in public life could protect him against any dangers to his mortal life. Ironically, Caesar is killed only moments after he gives a speech about his mightiness and how he was the world’s only ‘constant man’.

Though Caesar’s faith in his infallible power and status was incorrect, he was ultimately correct in his belief that his public position would remain eternal and everlasting. His spirit and others’ memory of him is used by Antony to rile up the crowd in Act3 Scene1, and his ghost appears to Brutus damning the conspirators for their actions. Brutus ultimately acknowledges his failure in separating Caesar from his clout and influence in Roman society in Act5 Scene3, when he states “Caesar, thou art mighty yet”. In fact, Caesar’s aura is seemingly elevated and boosted by his mortal body’s death. When Octavius later assumes absolute dictatorial power (After removing the other two members of the 2nd Triumvirate), he takes the title of ‘Caesar’, establishing Caesar into Roman society perpetually.

Shakespeare uses Caesar to show how the most important aspect of a person is not their mortal self, but rather the memory of oneself, with how history and others remember a person the only lasting remnant of one’s character.