Rob Williams knows how to pitch Jeff Bezos: You write a press release as if your product has already been built. Bezos reads it and gives a thumbs up or down.
大多数人认为商业计划需要详细的实施路径和阶段性目标，但这里揭示了一种截然不同的决策方式：Bezos似乎更看重愿景而非可行性。这种反直觉的决策方式挑战了传统创业和投资逻辑，暗示成功可能更多地取决于想象力的执行而非计划的严谨性。
These environments demand multi step reasoning, the chaining of multiple skills over many timesteps, and robust decision making under [delayed rewards](https://huggingface.co/papers?q=delayed%20rewards) and [partial observability](https://huggingface.co/papers?q=partial%20observability).
这些环境要求多步推理、在多个时间步长中连锁多个技能，以及在延迟奖励和部分可观测性下的稳健决策，这突显了长期交互环境对智能体能力的挑战。
A couple of applicants were students looking for part-time work. They were majoring in things like computer science and physics and emailed in because they were interested in AI and in the experiment. We thought they would have been the ideal employees, but Luna denied them immediately, citing they had no retail experience and wouldn't know what it takes to be the face of the store.
AI的决策逻辑令人惊讶——它拒绝了理论上最理解实验本质的申请人，而是选择了有零售经验的人。这展示了AI在评估候选人时可能基于实用主义而非实验价值，反映了AI对'成功'的定义可能与人类不同。
The system works beautifully for tracking the full universe of tasks that exists. The problem is prioritization. With multiple launches overlapping each week, figuring out which of your 30 tasks matters this morning requires mentally weighing launch dates against company strategy against what your teammates are blocked on.
令人惊讶的是：即使有完美的任务跟踪系统，优先级排序仍然是一个重大挑战，需要同时考虑截止日期、公司战略和团队阻塞情况等多重因素。这揭示了AI在复杂决策支持中的独特价值，能够处理多维度权衡。
your business needs to get really good at escalating contentious decisions to unblock progress. You will not pull off this transformation and successfully build new AI-native businesses in 12 months without making hard choices, every single week.
令人惊讶的是：文章强调软件公司需要在每周都做出艰难决策，这种频率和强度远超传统商业决策。这反映了AI时代商业环境的急剧变化，决策速度成为关键竞争力。
Cai et al. [117] interviewed 21 pathologists who used a deep neural network to aid in thediagnosis of prostate cancer. The interviews showed that pathologists needed to learn moreabout the network’s strengths and limitations to use it effectively. They also wanted to knowthe design objective of the network and the kind of data on which it was trained.
Marketing strategy begins by asking what is most important to the customer, so businesses can provide what the customers want–and both can profit. Knowing what you want in life helps you seek the best gifts and avoid choices that would deter you from happiness.
for - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - interventions - love and listening strategy for climate crisis - Roger Hallam - Trump winning US election - is an opportunity - Roger Hallam - perspectival knowing - Deep Humanity - mini assemblies - Roger Hallam - listening - fascism - social intervention - from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov - on horizontal and vertical decision-making
Summary - Roger Hallam advocates for a new strategy for the rise of fascism, populism, polarization and the climate crisis - love - He believes that we need a new social strategy based on love, on reaching out to the other side with compassion and listening to them - He cites numerous research studies that show that this can be transformative, for instance, citing pyschologist Carl Rogers - SRG complexity mapping tool, Deep Humanity and Indyweb could be synergistic to this program because both depend on: - diversity and - perspectival knowing
from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov on horizontal and vertical decision-making - https://hyp.is/0Tv_Rqr3Ee-_-X8fKkCfpg/illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/proximity-the-antidote-to-fascism - Medium article - An Emerging Third Option: Reclaiming Democracy from Dark Money & Dark Tech Seven Observations On 2024 and What’s Next - Otto Scharmer - cutting across political lines / https://hyp.is/exS8dKtNEe-pfz-IhQFiZA/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b
To effectively combat the roots of fascism, it is crucial to integrate both horizontal and vertical decentralized decision-making structures.
for - commons - new definition - pathological conservatism - new definition - benign conservatism - new definition - beneficial conservatism - adjacency - citizen assemblies - cosmolocal - community organization - horizontal and vertical decision-making as cosmolocal - Fair Share Commons - FSC - pathological conservatism - hypocrisy of modern conservatism that cannot acknowledge first nations - TPF as a vehicle for citizen assembly in each ward and district of a city - to - Youtube - Trump won, now what? - Roger Hallam - to - Substack article - - A global history of societal regulation - metacrisis, polycrisis - role of the commons and cosmolocal coordination - Michel Bauwens
adjacency - between - citizen assemblies - cosmolocal - community organization - citizen assemblies - horizontal and vertical - Fair Share Commons - FSC - town anywhere - TPF - one per city ward or district - progress traps - wicked problem - pathological conservatism - deep conservatism - ECOnomy is a subset of ECOlogy - Modernity has many forms of shallow, pathological conservatism - Indigenous and first nations peoples practice deep, beneficial conservatism - adjacency relationship - One of the biggest progress traps is pathological conservatism when - a technology has become popular and ubiquitous but an unintended consequence becomes exposed - In that case, incumbents who profit from the established supply chain will defend it at great cost, even if the harm it causes becomes increasingly obvious. - They will do this until it reaches a point that the harm is so great that it can no longer be defended. - Often, great harm is done before that point is reached, if it is reached. - Misinformation, gaslighting and fascism can emerge as a form of pathological conservatism in an attempt to preserve the harmful aspect of the status quo. - Fossil fuels, internal combustion engines and the climate change they cause are an example of this, creating a wicked problem in which those trying to solve the problem are also contributing to it - Citizen assemblies are a bottom up response and counterweight to centralized power that is driving pathological conservatism - In contrast to the pathological conservatism, environmental awareness is a practice of benign and beneficial conservatism - the conservation of our natural environment - In fact, many who call themselves conservatives and nationalists are hypocritical because - if they went further in their conservativism logic, they would have to acknowledge the first nations people who came before them - The natural resources that were part of indigenous peoples lives for millenia that colonialists have built their entire fortune on represents even greater degree of conservatism, yet the hypocrisy is that - modern conservatives often cannot acknowledge this reality of a deeper form of conservatism as it threatens their false entitlement - This brings into question their claim of practicing conservatism - pathological conservatives act as if the ECOlogy is subordinate to the ECOnomy when in fact, the ECOnomy cannot exist without a functioning ECOlogy - citizen assemblies can be implemented in each ward and district of a large city - On top of these, Fair Share Commons and community cooperatives can be built as formal structures to drive specific projects - In order for participatory democracy to work effectively requires education on Deep Humanity and conflict resolution, otherwise risks low resiliency due to internal conflicts and derailment of vision - In order to scale, it requires both horizontal and vertical components or organization. This implies a cosmolocal strategy: - horizontal decision-making with local group is local, whilst - vertical decision-making with non-local groups based on broader issues is cosmo - A global Tipping Point Festival that employs social tipping point theory to emerge a global network of citizen assemblies / commons assemblies / people's assemblies in each ward and district of a city to relocate healthy power back to the people
to - Youtube - Trump won, now what? - a love-based approach to replace power-based approach for dealing with fascism and polarization - Roger Hallam - https://hyp.is/wUDpaKsAEe-DM9fteMUtzw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiKWCHAcS7E - Substack article - A global history of societal regulation - metacrisis, polycrisis - role of the commons and cosmolocal coordination - Michel Bauwens - https://hyp.is/wlywbqkTEe-ROXfhSmA3bA/4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com/p/a-global-history-of-societal-regulation
for - Substack article - A global history of societal regulation - metacrisis, polycrisis - role of the commons and cosmolocal coordination - Michel Bauwens - from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov - on horizontal and vertical decision-making
article details - title: A global history of societal regulation - publisher: Substack - date_ 2024, Nov 20 - author: Michel Bauwens
Summary - Michel presents a history of economic and societal coordination and makes the claim that the commons has an important role to play in maintaining a wellbeing species that balances: - human activity - health of the natural environment - peace between different human groups - In particular, he observes the important role that cosmolocal coordination may play - Michel takes us to a journey through history to explore the various different systems that different cultures used in the past - It's very interesting that in modernity, we have a system which is seen as absolute but a study of history shows how relative it is - That raises the question of why the current system feels so intractable? What gives it its entrenchment - Perhaps it's that the global spread of neocapitalism around the globe has made it "too big to fail"? - and it will actually require failing before a new phoenix can emerge from the ashes? I hope not!
from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov on horizontal and vertical decision-making - https://hyp.is/0Tv_Rqr3Ee-_-X8fKkCfpg/illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/proximity-the-antidote-to-fascism
By doing away with deliberation, a cornerstone of liberal democratic politics, right wing populism seems to have found the key to success in our fast paced society. For an increasingly large number of voters, time to think or reflect seems to be nothing more than a hindrance to effective decision making, and it is this line of thought that is swelling the ranks of the far right.
If you only say yes or no to ideas, your team will keep coming back to you with a similar level of ideas. They won’t know why a strategic proposal worked or didn’t. If you want something to change, it’s your responsibility to invest the time to share your thought process, give feedback, and coach them on how to think differently.The end result of whether you move forward with an idea isn’t as important as the thought process behind it. The world champion poker player Annie Duke coined the decision-making principle of resulting, which describes this well:Resulting is the tendency to judge a decision based on its outcome rather than its quality. It's a natural human tendency to think that if a decision leads to a good outcome, it must have been a good decision. Likewise, if it leads to a bad outcome, it must have been a bad decision.
3. Fredkin's ParadoxThe more similar two choices seem, the less the decision should matter, yet the harder it is to choose between them. As a result, we often spend the most time on the decisions that matter least. To avoid being paralyzed by meaningless choices, use decision-making heuristics.
Their mind is still programmed with beliefs that serve their outdated goals. It’s difficult for them to believe that your new endeavor will work out because all they know to be possible is what they’ve done.
Such is the risk of limiting beliefs.
"He who looks for external validation is not properly grounded in life." -- Marcus Aurelius (20 June 2024 future edit, this must be Epictetus)
In other words, do not care about what others think... Heed their advice, take it into account, but ultimately you must make the decision yourself.
there are no genes for any of those membranes all the lipids that form the membranes and the complicated 00:07:27 structures that you can see in a typical cell none of that is coded for in the genome all of that is inherited
for - key insight - decision-making structures are in the cell membrane, not the genes
key insight - The codes that enable us to make choices are located in - the membranes of our cells and - their protein channels - There are no genes for - any of those membranes - all the lipids that form the membranes and the complicated structures that you can see in a typical cell - None of that is coded for in the genome - All of that is inherited
49:00 Voys heeft een company wiki. Hierbij hanteren ze het volgende: weet je iets niet, kijk dan in het "orakel". Zit het er niet in? Voeg het dan toe. ... Je kan ook een logboek bijhouden voor beslissingen.
A variation of this quote also appears in the movie Sweet Home Alabama (Touchstone Pictures, 2002) in the lightning sequence at the waterfront at the end of the picture:
What is it about you Southern Girls? You can't make the right decision until you tried all the wrong ones.<br /> —Jake Perry, portrayed by Josh Lucas
Link to: https://hypothes.is/a/EoLQ5MLkEe6lqTcB_otgdw a quote often misattributed to Winston Churchill.
Abba Eban who was an Israeli politician and diplomat. In March 1967 Eban visited Japan, and the New York Times reported on a remark that he made:[1] 1967 March 19, New York Times, “Japan Welcomes Eban Warmly; Her Industry Impresses Israeli” by Robert Trumbull, Page 14, New York. (ProQuest) Commenting that the passage of time offered the best hope of an end to the problems of Israel and her neighbors, he said: “Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources.”
Potential origin of a phrase often misattributed to Winston Churchill in a slightly different form.
Later in June 1967 Eban commented similarly:
...nations do behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives.
We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks.
How do you plan to make collective decisions?
OpenAI has not detailed in any concrete way who exactly will get to define what it means for A.I. to ‘‘benefit humanity as a whole.’’
Who get's to make decisions?
In their 1986 book, Thinking in Time, Ernest May and Richard Neustadt showed how bad analogies have led to poor foreign-policy decisions
Bad analogies can lead to poor decisions.
Kawakatsu et al. (1) make an important ad-vance in the quest for this kind of understanding, pro-viding a general model for how subtle differences inindividual-level decision-making can lead to hard-to-miss consequences for society as a whole.Their work (1) reveals two distinct regimes—oneegalitarian, one hierarchical—that emerge fromshifts in individual-level judgment. These lead to sta-tistical methods that researchers can use to reverseengineer observed hierarchies, and understand howsignaling systems work when prestige and power arein play.
M. Kawakatsu, P. S. Chodrow, N. Eikmeier, D. B. Larremore, Emergence of hierarchy in networked endorsement dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, e2015188118 (2021)
This may be of interest to Jerry Michalski et al.
And yet still we have to make the determination: Is this worthy of the bigger process? Our could we just ship it, and see what happens? Knowing when to accept the risk of the latter is part of how you prevent getting bogged down in process for things that just don't merit it. And sometimes you'll get that wrong! Something that looked innocuous will be consequential, and you have to clean it up. That's the nature of the criticality bet. You need to have the stomach to keep playing, even if you occasionally lose a hand. You're playing anyway unless you're doing the crazy multiple-teams-doing-adversarial-solutions stuff that I've heard of in pacemaker development. So don't sweat it, calibrate it!
The organization has to be aware that we are making conscious "criticality bets". This is rarely the case. People in different parts of the organization calibrate criticality differently.
“There is no substitute for good decisions at the top—and no remedy for stupid ones.”
Tools for better thinking Collection of thinking tools and frameworks to help you solve problems, make decisions and understand systems.
<small><cite class='h-cite via'>ᔥ <span class='p-author h-card'>Howard Rheingold</span> in Howard Rheingold: "Y'all know about "Tools for …" - Mastodon (<time class='dt-published'>11/13/2022 17:33:07</time>)</cite></small>
Looks similar to Project Zero https://pz.harvard.edu/thinking-routines
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>If you're:<br><br>- An independent consultant<br>- A systems thinker<br>- Trying to change organizations<br>- Interested in theory & practice<br><br>Then you'll love CommonCog
— Tom Critchlow (@tomcritchlow) November 9, 2022
Nobody ever says rubber ducky debugging involves writing memos to your preferred duck, after all.
Seemingly both rubber duck debugging and casual conversations with acquaintances would seem to be soft forms of diffuse thinking which may help one come to a heuristic-based decision or realization.
These may be useful, but should also be used in combination with more logical, system two forms of decision making. (At least not in the quick, notice the problem sort of issues in which one may be debugging.)
Boosting Human Decision‑making with AI‑Generated Decision Aids
This is what I've learned from the research. Basically, to make better decisions 1. one needs to have a lot of data about the thing 2. he/she should define the parameters according to which the procedural instructions will the made in-order to make decision. 3. one should be aware of the cognitive biases while making a decision
For Example- * suppose you are trying to find a college 1. Gather data about the colleges 2. compare the colleges on the parameters you've set 1. like admission fees, companies visiting, average or highest package offered 3. And make sure that you are aware of cognitive biases
Bilingual Antinet?
There's research to support that thinking in a non-native language has benefits for your thought processes and decision making. E.g.: https://news.uchicago.edu/story/thinking-foreign-language-helps-economic-decision-making
The nature of physics problem-solvingBelow are 29 sets of questions that students and physicists need to ask themselves during the research process. The answers at each step allow them to make the 29 decisions needed to solve a physics problem. (Adapted from reference 33. A. M. Price et al., CBE—Life Sci. Edu. 20, ar43 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1187/cbe.20-12-0276.)A. Selection and planning1. What is important in the field? Where is the field heading? Are there advances in the field that open new possibilities?2. Are there opportunities that fit the physicist’s expertise? Are there gaps in the field that need solving or opportunities to challenge the status quo and question assumptions in the field? Given experts’ capabilities, are there opportunities particularly accessible to them?3. What are the goals, design criteria, or requirements of the problem solution? What is the scope of the problem? What will be the criteria on which the solution is evaluated?4. What are the important underlying features or concepts that apply? Which available information is relevant to solving the problem and why? To better identify the important information, create a suitable representation of core ideas.5. Which predictive frameworks should be used? Decide on the appropriate level of mechanism and structure that the framework needs to be most useful for the problem at hand.6. How can the problem be narrowed? Formulate specific questions and hypotheses to make the problem more tractable.7. What are related problems or work that have been seen before? What aspects of their problem-solving process and solutions might be useful?8. What are some potential solutions? (This decision is based on experience and the results of decisions 3 and 4.)9. Is the problem plausibly solvable? Is the solution worth pursuing given the difficulties, constraints, risks, and uncertainties?Decisions 10–15 establish the specifics needed to solve the problem.10. What approximations or simplifications are appropriate?11. How can the research problem be decomposed into subproblems? Subproblems are independently solvable pieces with their own subgoals.12. Which areas of a problem are particularly difficult or uncertain in the solving process? What are acceptable levels of uncertainty with which to proceed at various stages?13. What information is needed to solve the problem? What approach will be sufficient to test and distinguish between potential solutions?14. Which among the many competing considerations should be prioritized? Considerations could include the following: What are the most important or most difficult? What are the time, materials, and cost constraints?15. How can necessary information be obtained? Options include designing and conducting experiments, making observations, talking to experts, consulting the literature, performing calculations, building models, and using simulations. Plans also involve setting milestones and metrics for evaluating progress and considering possible alternative outcomes and paths that may arise during the problem-solving process.B. Analysis and conclusions16. Which calculations and data analysis should be done? How should they be carried out?17. What is the best way to represent and organize available information to provide clarity and insights?18. Is information valid, reliable, and believable? Is the interpretation unbiased?19. How does information compare with predictions? As new information is collected, how does it compare with expected results based on the predictive framework?20. If a result is different from expected, how should one follow up? Does a potential anomaly fit within the acceptable range of predictive frameworks, given their limitations and underlying assumptions and approximations?21. What are appropriate, justifiable conclusions based on the data?22. What is the best solution from the candidate solutions? To narrow down the list, decide which of those solutions are consistent with all available information, and which can be rejected. Determine what refinements need to be made to the candidate solutions. For this decision, which should be made repeatedly throughout the problem-solving process, the candidate list need not be narrowed down to a single solution.23. Are previous decisions about simplifications and predictive frameworks still appropriate in light of new information? Does the chosen predictive framework need to be modified?24. Is the physicist’s relevant knowledge and the current information they have sufficient? Is more information needed, and if so, what is it? Does some information need to be verified?25. How well is the problem-solving approach working? Does it need to be modified? A physicist should reflect on their strategy by evaluating progress toward the solution and possibly revising their goals.26. How good is the chosen solution? After selecting one from the candidate solutions and reflecting on it, does it make sense and pass discipline-specific tests for solutions to the problem? How might it fail?Decisions 27–29 are about the significance of the work and how to communicate the results.27. What are the broader implications of the results? Over what range of contexts does the solution apply? What outstanding problems in the field might it solve? What novel predictions can it enable? How and why might the solution be seen as interesting to a broader community?28. Who is the audience for the work? What are the audience’s important characteristics?29. What is the best way to present the work to have it understood and to have its correctness and importance appreciated? How can a compelling story be made of the work?
Wieman, Carl. “How to Become a Successful Physicist.” Physics Today 75, no. 9 (September 2022): 46–52. https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.5082
The details here are also good in teaching almost all areas of knowledge, particularly when problem solving is involved.
How might one teach the practice of combinatorial creativity?
An adviser should have their students explicitly practice decisions 25 and 26, test their solutions, and try to come up with the ways their decisions could fail, including alternative conclusions that are not the findings that they were hoping for. Thinking of such failure modes is something that even many experienced physicists are not very good at, but our research has shown that it can be readily learned with practice.
To help fight cognitive bias, one should actively think about potential failure modes of one's decisions and think about alternative conclusions which aren't part of the findings one might have hoped for. Watching out for these can dramatically help increase solution spaces and be on the watch out for innovative alternate or even better solutions.
The third and probably most serious difficulty in making good reflective decisions is confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias can be detrimental when making solid reflective decisions.
To be a successful physicist requires mastering how to make all 29 decisions, but the reflection decisions (decisions 23–26) are arguably the most difficult to learn.
Of the 29 problem solving decisions identified as important the three "reflection decisions" (23-26 in the list) may be the most difficult to learn as they require metacognition and self-evaluation.
My research group interviewed some 50 skilled scientists and engineers (“experts”), including physicists, on how they solved authentic problems in their discipline. We analyzed the interviews in terms of the decisions made during the solving process. Decisions were defined as instances when an expert selected between competing alternatives before taking some action. To my surprise, we found that the same set of 29 decisions occurred over and over (see the box on page 50). Nearly all of them showed up in every interview, and they essentially defined the problem-solving process.3
Though interviews with scientists and engineers, researchers have identified a list of 29 commonly occurring decisions made during problem solving processes.
I've recently run across a few examples of a pattern that should have a name because it would appear to dramatically change the outcomes. I'm going to term it "decisions based on possibilities rather than realities". It's seen frequently in economics and politics and seems to be a form of cognitive bias. People make choices (or votes) about uncertain futures, often when there is a confluence of fear, uncertainty, and doubt, and these choices are dramatically different than when they're presented with the actual circumstances in practice.
A recent example was a story about a woman who was virulently pro-life who when presented with a situation required her to switch her position to pro-choice.
Another relates to choices that people want to make about where their children might go to school versus where they actually send them, and the damage this does to public education.
Let's start collecting examples of these quandaries at all levels of making choices in the real world.
What is the relationship to this with the mental exercise of "descending into the particular"?
Does this also potentially cause decision fatigue in cases of voting spaces when constituents are forced to vote for candidates on thousands of axes which they may or may not agree with?
With Only 26% of Pregnant People in the United States Vaccinated Against COVID-19, New Survey Sheds Light on the Reasons Why. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2021, from https://www.mavenclinic.com/post/covid-19-vaccine-survey-pregnant-people?utm_content=185156625&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-2236392565
Ahuja, A. (2021, November 7). UK dithering over Covid jabs for young must not happen again. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e5dd42d4-a555-4208-a218-738fc09a618c
Halstead, I., Lewis, G., & McKay, R. (2021). Opposition to Novel Biotechnologies: Testing An Omission Bias Account. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4ef7m
Zhao, W. J., Coady, A., & Bhatia, S. (2021). Computational mechanisms for context-based behavioral interventions: A large-scale analysis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8cyad
Teodorescu, K., Plonsky, O., Ayal, S., & Barkan, R. (2021). Enforcement policies: Frequency of inspection is more important than the severity of punishment. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/pbvzr
Decision-making in uncertainty | BPS. (n.d.). Retrieved November 22, 2021, from https://www.bps.org.uk/events/decision-making-uncertainty
Epstein, Z., Berinsky, A., Cole, R., Gully, A., Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. (2021). Developing an accuracy-prompt toolkit to reduce COVID-19 misinformation online. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/sjfbn
Weiss, D. J., & Shanteau, J. (2021). The futility of decision making research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 90, 10–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2021.08.018
Karan, A. (2022). We cannot afford to repeat these four pandemic mistakes. BMJ, 376, o631. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o631
Holford, D. L., Juanchich, M., & Sirota, M. (2021). Ambiguity and unintended inferences about risk messages for COVID - 19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/w5rd6
Seaman, K. L., Christensen, A. P., Senn, K., Cooper, J., & Cassidy, B. S. (2022). Age Differences in the Social Associative Learning of Trust Information. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b38rd
A “razor” is a rule of thumb that simplifies decision making. The most powerful razors I’ve found:
5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
By dropping or reducing or postponing the least importantparts, we can unblock ourselves and move forward even when timeis scarce.
When working on a project, to stave off potential procrastination on finishing, one should focus on the minimum viable version and finish that. They can then progressively enhance portions and add on addition pieces which may be beneficial or even nice to have.
Spending too much time on the things that sound nice or that one "might want to have" in the future will be the death of the thing.
link to: - you ain't gonna need it - bikeshedding for procrastination
questions: - Does the misinterpreted-effort hypothesis play a role in creating our procrastination and/or lead to decision fatigue?
ReconfigBehSci [@SciBeh]. (2021, October 2). @alexdefig and that any attempt to bring to the table a fact that runs counter to a particular conclusion is some kind of lobbying. That really -to me- is not how science should work, nor is it how science-based policy should work. [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1444361815492726784
they clearly find consensus decision making and production of a product much less satisfying
Perspective | Natural immunity to covid is powerful. Policymakers seem afraid to say so. (n.d.). Washington Post. Retrieved 31 March 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/15/natural-immunity-vaccine-mandate/
Jia, J. S., Yuan, Y., Jia, J., & Christakis, N. (2022, January 30). Risk perception and behaviour change after personal vaccination for COVID-19 in the USA. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/afyv8
Halilova, J. G., Fynes-Clinton, S., Green, L., Myerson, J., Wu, J., Ruggeri, K., … Rosenbaum, R. (2022, January 28). Short-sighted decision-making by those not vaccinated against COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6uqky
Sinclair, Alyssa H., Morgan Taylor, Freyja Brandel-Tanis, Audra Davidson, Aroon T. Chande, Lavanya Rishishwar, Clio Maria Andris, et al. ‘Counteracting COVID-19 Risk Misestimation with an Interactive Website’. PsyArXiv, 9 February 2022. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/v8tdf.
“Scarcity: WhyHaving Too Little Means So Much” (2013) by Mullainathan andShafir. They investigate how the experience of scarcity has cognitiveeffects and causes changes in decision-making processes.
I'm reminded of a reference recently to Republicans being upset that poor people of color would "waste" their money on frivolities like manicures and fake fingernails instead of on food or other necessities. How might this tie into the argument made in this book?
Even though results of these studies are currently under intensescrutiny and have to be taken with a grain of salt (Carter andMcCullough 2014; Engber and Cauterucci 2016; Job, Dweck andWalton 2010), it is safe to argue that a reliable and standardisedworking environment is less taxing on our attention, concentration
and willpower, or, if you like, ego. It is well known that decision-making is one of the most tiring and wearying tasks...
Having a standardized and reliable working environment or even workflow can be less taxing on our attention, our concentration, and our willpower leaving more energy for making decisions and thinking which can have a greater impact.
Does the fact that the relative lack of any decision making about what to see or read next seen in doomscrolling underlie some of the easily formed habit of the attention economy? Not having to actively decide what to read next combined with the random rewards of interesting tidbits creating a sense of flow is sapping not our mental energy, but our time. How can we better design against this?
Gradassi, A., Bos, W. van den, & Molleman, L. (2022). Confidence of others trumps confidence of self in social information use. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mqyu2
Calarco, J. M. (2021). The Moral Calm Before the Storm: How a Theory of Moral Calms Explains the Covid-Related Increase in Parents’ Refusal of Vaccines for Children. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/m7c3p
Grüning, D. J., Panizza, F., & Lorenz-Spreen, P. (2022). The importance of informative interventions in a wicked environment. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/azsbn
Women’s rights and family matters
Decision-making
matters that pertain to the children.
the eldest son makes all the major decisions
male authority trumps parental/age authority of a woman
Values, rather than numbers, should drive decision-making. Ask whether what you measure accurately reflects your priorities. Many of our most cherished values are not amenable to quantitative measurement.
The online information environment | Royal Society. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2022, from https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/online-information-environment/
Krueger, P., Callaway, F., Gul, S., Griffiths, T., & Lieder, F. (2022). Discovering Rational Heuristics for Risky Choice. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mg7dn
Many decisions are reversible, two-way doors. Those decisions can use a light-weight process. Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70 percent of the information you wish you had. Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible -- one-way doors -- and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don't like what you see on the other side, you can't get back to where you were before. But most decisions aren't like that -- they are changeable, reversible -- they're two-way doors. If you've made a suboptimal two-way door decision, you don't have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through.
Reversible decisions can be made with less information / certainty
October 26 & 2021. (n.d.). Stress and decision-making during the pandemic. Https://Www.Apa.Org. Retrieved 11 November 2021, from https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/stress/2021/october-decision-making
Dr. Thomas Wilckens. (2021, October 31). JCVI facing calls from within for greater transparency over decision-making https://buff.ly/3GwVqCZ JCVI has been criticised for failing to publish detailed minutes, modelling and analysis behind its decision to advise vaccinating all over-16s in Britain #covid19 #coronavirus https://t.co/nWbnvci7LI [Tweet]. @Thomas_Wilckens. https://twitter.com/Thomas_Wilckens/status/1454798820156530689
“Speed kills.” If you are able to be nimble, assess the ever-changing environment, and adapt quickly, you’ll always carry the advantage over any opponents. Start applying the OODA Loop to your day-to-day decisions and watch what happens. You’ll start to notice things that you would have been oblivious to before. Before jumping to your first conclusion, you’ll pause to consider your biases, take in additional information, and be more thoughtful of consequences.
In che modo si può applicare il modello OODA Loop nella vita quotidiana?
Semplicemente applicando ad ogni nostra decisione le fasi previste dal modello, rendendo questo processo una abitudine riusciremo ad essere sempre più veloci nell'eseguirlo e questo ci darà la velocità necessaria per sopravvivere e vincere.
News ·, A. M. · C. (2021, October 2). Alberta acted like the pandemic was over. Now it’s a cautionary tale for Canada | CBC News. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/alberta-fourth-wave-surge-hospitals-icu-covid-19-1.6197263
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Marco, M. A., Meg. (n.d.). How Your Brain Tricks You Into Taking Risks During the Pandemic. ProPublica. Retrieved September 2, 2021, from https://www.propublica.org/article/how-your-brain-tricks-you-into-taking-risks-during-the-pandemic?token=l24Nh-wDyBgy53bhcy5jGvQh1IDRcxzE
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Team syntegrity and democratic group decision making: theory and practice
Stafford Beer created Team Syntegrity as a methodology for social interaction that predisposes participants towards shared agreement among varied and sometimes conflicting interests, without compromising the legitimate claims and integrity of those interests. This paper outlines the methodology and the underlying philosophy, describing several applications in a variety of countries and contexts, indicating why such an approach causes us to re-think more traditional approaches to group decision processes, and relating Team Syntegrity to other systems approaches.
Shared by Kirby Urner in the Trimtab Book Club
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Sun, Q., Lu, J., Zhang, H., & Liu, Y. (2021). Social Distance Reduces the Biases of Overweighting Small Probabilities and Underweighting Large Probabilities. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 47(8), 1309–1324. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220969051
Dai, H., Saccardo, S., Han, M. A., Roh, L., Raja, N., Vangala, S., Modi, H., Pandya, S., Sloyan, M., & Croymans, D. M. (2021). Behavioral Nudges Increase COVID-19 Vaccinations. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03843-2
To the extentthat people accommodate themselves to the faceless inflexibility ofplatforms, they will become less and less capable of seeing thevirtues of institutions, on any scale. One consequence of thataccommodation will be an increasing impatience withrepresentative democracy, and an accompanying desire to replacepolitical institutions with platform-based decision making:referendums and plebiscites, conducted at as high a level as possible(national, or in the case of the European Union, transnational).Among other things, these trends will bring, in turn, theexploitation of communities and natural resources by people whowill never see or know anything about what they are exploiting. !escope of local action will therefore be diminished, and will comeunder increasing threat of what we might call, borrowing a phrasefrom Einstein, spooky action at a distance.
This fits in line with my thesis to make corporations and especially corporate executives and owners be local, so that they can see the effect that their decisions are having.
Williams, W. C., Haque, E., Mai, B., & Venkatraman, V. (2021). Face masks influence how facial expressions are perceived: A drift-diffusion model of emotion judgments. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/a8yxf
van der Plas, E., Mason, D., Livingston, L. A., Craigie, J., Happé, F., & Fleming, S. M. (2021). Computations of confidence are modulated by mentalizing ability [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/c4pzj
your goal cannot be to follow orders in order to get a higher grade, instead you are free to listen, consider things, ignore ideas, or ask more honest questions of your readers. You are now free to make your own decisions on your writing.
Labor-based grading in writing allows students to listen and adjust to comments which gives them greater freedom and autonomy in both their learning process as well as their writing.
Ideally, in a system like this, a shorter feedback loop of commentary and readjustment may also help to more carefully hone their skills versus potentially hitting a plateau after which it's more difficult to improve.
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Mielicki, M., Fitzsimmons, C., Schiller, L., Scheibe, D., Taber, J. M., Sidney, P., Matthews, P. G., Waters, E. A., Coifman, K., & Thompson, C. A. (2021). Adults’ Health-Related Problem Solving Is Facilitated by Number Lines, But Not Risk Ladders and Icon Arrays. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/h3stw
better “decision hygiene” such as designating an observer for group decisions, to prevent common biases and noisy judgments. For example, they can ensure that participants in a team reach independent assessments before coming together as a group to aggregate their decisions.
Approaches for decreasing noise in decision making
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Career decision making involves so much uncertainty that it’s easy to feel paralysed. Instead, make some hypotheses about which option is best, then identify key uncertainties: what information would most change your best guess?
We tend to think that uncertainties can't be weighted in our decision-making, but we bet on uncertainties all the time. Rather than throw your hands up and say, "I don't have enough information to make a call", how can we think deliberately about what information would reduce the uncertainty?
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But so far everything brought up has just been about the relative advantages of checked exceptions, and that issue is closed. We won't do it.
While Trailblazer offers you abstraction layers for all aspects of Ruby On Rails, it does not missionize you. Wherever you want, you may fall back to the "Rails Way" with fat models, monolithic controllers, global helpers, etc. This is not a bad thing, but allows you to step-wise introduce Trailblazer's encapsulation in your app without having to rewrite it.
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Say, for instance, a hypothetical self-driving car is sold as being the safest on the market. One of the factors that makes it safer is that it “knows” when a big truck pulls up along its left side and automatically moves itself three inches to the right while still remaining in its own lane. But what if a cyclist or motorcycle happens to be pulling up on the right at the same time and is thus killed because of this safety feature?
I think that an algorithm that's "smart" enough to move away from a truck is also "smart" enough to know that it cannot physically occupy the same space as the motorcycle.
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Only folks who help package Chromium get to decide how Chromium gets packaged. This gives anyone two options: You can get involved and help package Chromium so you have a voice in the decision-making, or not.
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The HOPE-project (http://hope-project.dk ) tracks public opinion during #covid19, sharing findings with the public & authorities. This graph is the most concerning yet: The # willing to use an approved COVID-vaccine recommended for them
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when we are given the space to consider our decisions, we tend to make fewer errors.
think about examples where this isn't the case like high-pressure car buying
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Decision fatigue describes a phenomenon where giving any real thought to a decision takes up energy.
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Amazon pushes teams to escalate one-way door decisions – those that can’t be reversed and may have long-term consequences. However, with “two-way” decisions, managers are coached to make these decisions themselves.
Amazon encourages employees to escalate decisions that are irreversible (one-way door decisions) and to delegate decisions that are not. The idea being that if you can act quickly, even if you make more mistakes, it will benefit the system as a whole.
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