For the remaining cases, the full SELFDOUBT score significantly outperforms sampling-based semantic entropy at 10x lower inference cost.
令人惊讶的是：SELFDOUBT方法在处理剩余情况时，不仅显著优于基于采样的语义熵方法，而且计算成本降低了10倍。这一发现表明，通过分析模型推理过程中的自我怀疑和验证行为，可以在极低成本下实现比传统方法更准确的不确定性估计，为实际应用提供了高效解决方案。
We develop reliable a posteriori error estimators for fully discrete Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin approximations of nonlinear convection–diffusion systems endowed with a convex entropy in multip
令人惊讶的是，本文的核心挑战不是「计算精度」，而是「知道自己有多不精确」。a posteriori 误差估计器的作用是：在不知道真实解的情况下，对数值解的误差给出可靠的上界。这类似于在没有标准答案的考试中，能自动评估自己答错了多少——这在数值计算中是极高层次的自知能力，也是自适应网格细化的理论基础。
Providing non-misleading interpretations of figures with confidence intervals requires judgment, and no mechanical decision procedure can carry out this job better than a thoughtful investigator.
Estimation is necessary but not sufficient
This assessment raises two issues. First, it is arbitrary. If 10 of the 15 CIs included the predicted values, would the results also support the theory, or instead refute it? If one instead used 99% CIs, would positive results for 12 of the 15 predictions be enough to support the theory? This arbitrariness arises because CIs offer no principled method for generating an inference regarding the theory.
Estimation is too messy / complex and not clear enough
two out of three necessary conditions for testing theory are missing.
Estimation is too messy / complex and not clear enough
a very good advice in order to calculate or estimate the duration of the project is that you ask non-experts
for - neuroscience - time estimation - non-experts are better at providing time budgets - neuroscience - non-experts give better time estimates than consultants
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Carl T. Bergstrom on Twitter
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"I don't have a system and need to build one."
It's a POC - GSD and most importantly see what sticks.
($20*3)-($20*3*.1) = $54
10% of $2000(cost of camer) * 3days = Rental Price
Rental Price - Commission = Rental Made This guy totally forgot taxes here.... :)
54$ for 3 days 365 days a year about 50 % usage so roughly 180 days. $54 for 3 days $? for 180 days = $3240 about 740$ profit per year for a $2000 investment if he's 50% utilized over the year.
Camera's Man this guy needed to crunch some more numbers. Camera's have compatibility issues....
The team used a whiteboard with task cards, stand-up meetings, weekly iterations, and prioritization. They even estimated their work, measured flow, and held retrospectives.