42 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2024
    1. Der Guardian nennt die Stimmung der meisten von der Zeitung zu ihren Zukunfterwartungen befragten IPCC-Klimawissenschaftlerinnen düster; viele sind deprimiert. Viele der Forschenden, die die Zeitung als die am besten über die Zukunft Informierten bezeichnet, erwarten Hungersnöte, Massenmigration und Konflikte. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair

  2. Apr 2024
  3. Nov 2023
  4. Oct 2023
    1. The forthcoming 6th IPCC report includes a chapter ondemand-side mitigation solutions, which estimates thatsociobehavioral changes (on top of changes in infra-structure or technology) have the potential to reduceCO 2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050
      • for: IPCC - social behavioral change impact, quote, quote - IPCC social behavioral change

      • quote

        • The forthcoming 6th IPCC report includes a chapter on demand-side mitigation solutions, which estimates that
        • sociobehavioral changes (on top of changes in infra- structure or technology) have the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050.
  5. Sep 2023
    1. I hope anyway, it is a hope – that there will be some sort of partnership between bottom-up and top-down that will provide guidance to leaders to put the right things in place.
      • for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - bottom-up and top-down partnership, IPCC AR6 WGIII demand side reduction and bottom-up actions
      • quote
        • I hope that there will be some sort of partnership between bottom-up and top-down that will provide guidance to leaders to put the right things in place.
      • author: Kevin Anderson
      • date: Sept., 2023

      • comment

    2. these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
      • for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
      • highlight

        • the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
          • current climate models
          • global carbon estimates
          • IPCC
        • the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
        • the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
      • question

        • Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
  6. Aug 2023
    1. Der Brite Jim Skea wurde zum neuen Vorsitzenden des IPCC gewählt. In einem Spiegel-Interview wiederholte er das Statement, dass das Überschreiten des 1,5°-Ziels nicht das Ende der Menschheit bedeute. Skea bezog sich auf die Aussage des IPCC, dass das 1,5° Ziel nur nach einem zeitweisen Überschreiten durch Entfernung von CO<sub>2</sub> aus der Atmosphäre erreicht werden kann. Er betonte wiederum, dass jedes Zehntelgrad weniger Temperaturerhöhung von enormer Relevanz ist. https://taz.de/15-Grad-Ziel-in-Klimadebatte/!5948023/

  7. Apr 2023
    1. The new report evokes a mild sense of urgency, calling on governments to mobilise finance to accelerate the uptake of green technology. But its conclusions are far removed from a direct interpretation of the IPCC’s own carbon budgets (the total amount of CO₂ scientists estimate
      • The report claims that
        • to reach target of 50/50 chance of staying within 1.5 deg C,
        • we must reach meet zero by 2050
          • Yet, updating the IPCC’s estimate of the 1.5°C carbon budget,
            • from 2020 to 2023, and then drawing a straight line down from today’s total emissions to the point where all carbon emissions must cease, and without exceeding this budget,
          • gives a zero CO₂ date of 2040.
          • Furthermore, adding policy delays to set things up, it is more likely a date closer to mid 2030's.
    2. Title IPCC’s conservative nature masks true scale of action needed to avert catastrophic climate change Author Kevin Anderson

      Summary The influential 2023 IPCC Synthesis report for policy makers is quite misleading and can steer policy makers in the wrong, and disastrous direction.

  8. Mar 2023
    1. The effect of Antarctic meltwater on ocean currents has not yet been factored in to IPCC models on climate change, but it is going to be "considerable", Prof England said.

      Another unknown not yet included in IPCC report

    1. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its “synthesis” report summarizing the findings of its sixth assessment (the last occurred in 2014). The findings are painfully familiar: the world is falling far short of its emission goals, and without rapid reductions this decade, the planet is likely to shoot to beyond 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century (we are at 1.1 degrees now). We seem to be stuck in a doom-loop news cycle where scientific reports create headlines, and earnest climate commentators insist the new report represents a true “wake-up call” for action, and then . . . emission keep rising. They hit a record once again in 2022. The world of climate politics appears to exist in two completely different worlds. There is a largely liberal and idealist world of climate technocrats where science informs policy, and there is the real, material capitalist world of power.
      • A good observation
        • about the cognitive dissonance of the situation
  9. Feb 2023
    1. IPCC’s mind-bogglingly complicated 7-year review and reporting structure. Though designed to be thorough, this has no chance of keeping up.This modus operandi was established at their inception in 1988 but, as Naomi Oreskes, the Harvard science historian says, the IPCC ‘set the bar of proof too high’ for their vital advisory role.
      • IPCC’s 7 year review process is thorough but at the bc same time guarantees that its findings are already dangerously outdated by v the time they are released to the public.
      • What might be more useful is to have current research reviewed by a global trans-disciplinary board and decisions made on monthly summaries
      • Could systematic application of human assisted AI speed things up?
  10. Dec 2022
    1. argeting a climate resilient sustainable World involves fundamental changes to how Society functions including changes to our underlying values Our World Views ideologies social structures political economic systems 00:35:07 and power relationships I mean it's in other words throw it all up in the air and start again and that's in the ipcc which I'm amazed that ever got past the the lawyers um because it's very carefully checked when these things are published but 00:35:21 anyway that quote is in there from working group too and I think that captures the essence of the source the changes we're talking about

      !- quote : from IPCC

  11. Nov 2022
    1. Die Kryosphäre bricht viel schneller zusammen als bisher angenommen - vom westantarktischen Eisschild bis zum arktischen Permafrost. Die Versauernug der Ozeane hat sich beschleunigt. Zur #Cop27 ist ein umfassendes Update des Berichts zu den Kältezonen erschienen, den der Weltklimarat vor einigen Jahren publiziert hatte.

  12. Jul 2022
    1. What is so maddening is that there are alternatives. There is an abundance of theory and arguments that could lead the way. The latest IPCC report had an entire section that doesn’t propose technofixes but instead explores how energy demand could be managed to ensure that everyone has enough to thrive while ensuring the biosphere doesn’t die. 

      IPCC AR6 WG III chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Freport.ipcc.ch%2Far6wg3%2Fpdf%2FIPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_Chapter05.pdf&group=world

    1. Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation

      Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation

      NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.

      This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.

  13. Jun 2022
    1. What may be required, therefore, is a significant reduction of societal demand for all resources, of all kinds.”

      This is consistent with the recommendations from "Ostrich or the Phoenix".IPCC latest report AR6 Ch. 5 also advocates the huge emissions reduction achievable with demand reduction.

    1. the inter-connectedness of the crises we face climate pollution biodiversity and 00:07:54 inequality require our change require a change in our exploitative relationship to our planet to a more holistic and caring one but that can only happen with a change in our behavior

      As per IPCC AR6 WGIII, Chapter 5 outlining for the first time, the enormous mitigation potential of social aspects of mitigation - such as behavioral change - can add up to 40 percent of mitigation. And also harkening back to Donella Meadows' leverage points that point out shifts in worldviews, paradigms and value systems are the most powerful leverage points in system change.

      Stop Reset Go advocates humanity builds an open source, open access praxis for Deep Humanity, understand the depths of what it means to be a living and dying human being in the context of an entwined culture. Sharing best practices and constantly crowdsourcing the universal and salient aspects of our common humanity can help rapidly transform the inner space of each human INTERbeing, which can powerfully influence outer (social) transformation.

  14. May 2022
    1. The hyper-response aims to deflate or attack the hyperthreat by operating at the microlevel through “mesh-interventions” as well as at the macrolevel through realignment of great nation states and tribes.

      In IPCC AR6 WGIII Parlence, middle actors can mediate a community scale change, which becomes a force multiplier for individual change. Supercharging individual change is what can lead to significant scale of impact through many and many types of mesh interventions. The scale of such mesh interventions will have a "trickle up" effect to affect and accelerate the actions of top down actors.

      This would be truly empowering as the current agency of the individual at the grassroots level is ineffectual.

      Stop Reset Go (SRG) s a simple but powerful meme that is designed to be used by anyone to effect transition. When we recognize that something is harmful and needs to change, SRG can be invoked as a simple rule for transition. The colors of the traffic light are used as a mnemonic aid. If there is a problem with a human process, then STOP. think of an alternative way of achieving the same goal that does not bring about the harm (RESET). When the alternative has been trialed, tested and proven to work without causing more progress traps, then find a way to scale and implement the solution (GO).

      SRG therefore becomes a simple mesh intervention that can be applied at all scales and dimensions. Its iterative and recursive use can be tracked in the Indyweb and interventions can be modeled by AI assistants that can analyze for potential unintended consequences through connections outside the focus area of the designer, and not normally explored by the designers. This augers a truly circular design methodology of the lowest potential impact.

    2. “low-hanging fruit”

      IPCC AR6 WGIII Chapter 5: demand, services and social aspects of mitigation identifies that up to 45% of mitigation can result from a demand-side socialization strategy and collective action mobilization. This gives us tremendous power of impact to mobilize people. The low hanging fruit can be identified by comprehensive, ongoing, deep, global conversations with the greatest diversity of actors with a common vision collectively searching for the social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources and scaling massively thru the Indyweb as a cosmolocal network (what's light we share, what's heavy we produce locally).

      Climate scientist and realist Professor Kevin Anderson has argued for many years that demand side changes are the only solutions that can be implemented rapidly enough to peak emissions and drop emissions rapidly in the short term (next few years), buying time for reneewable energy solutions to scale globally.

    3. An analysis of “friendly forces” via a “tribal discourse” activity found that although many of humanity’s smaller and less powerful tribes are engaged in minor operations against the hyperthreat, its most powerful tribes often abet the hyperthreat (figure 2). If humanity’s tribes could be united against the hyperthreat, the current balance of probabilities, which currently lie with a hyperthreat victory and a Hothouse Earth outcome, could be recast.

      This is the key idea behind mobilizing an effective global, multi-stakeholder, bottom-up response. Minor operations implies an aggregate approach that has little impact, otherwise known colloquially as "tinkering at the edge". IPCC AR6, WGIII Chapter 5 articulates this same message and for the first time, outlines that demand side system changes can play a significant role in mitigation effectiveness against the hyperthreat. It must be collectively organized individual change that scales to community scales around the globe in order to have impact, leveraging what the IPCC call "middle actors".

      An effective strategy must be very time sensitive to the short time window to peak emissions so must identify all leverage points, idling resources and social tipping points available to a global bottom-up mobilization.

  15. Apr 2022
    1. But it turns out there isn’t such a hard-line distinction on where individual action ends, because even individual actions can have network effects. In between, there are schools, counties, cities, professions, and peer groups that can push for climate action. The IPCC calls these “middle actors.”

      The middle actors are a strategic group.

    2. So the bottom line of the IPCC’s first look at individual action is this: By reexamining the way we live, move around, and eat, the world has the potential to slash up to 70 percent of end-use emissions by 2050. Change is even possible in the very short term. And while hard data and peer-reviewed science show individual actions do matter, ultimately, the world has to think beyond the individual carbon footprint in addressing the climate crisis, including thinking about how individuals can bring about structural change.

      This is exactly what SRG has been advocating for in its bottom-up, rapid whole system change approach.

  16. Mar 2022
  17. Sep 2021
    1. In a leaked draft of the third part of the IPCC report, which is not expected to be published before March 2022, warns global greenhouse gas emissions have to peak within the next four years to prevent a climate breakdown. 

      Es geht im dritten Teil um Mitigation, also um die Abschwächung bzw die Verhinderung einer noch stärkeren Erhitzung.


      Das Maximum der Emissionen muss in den nächsten vier Jahren erreicht werden. Die Länder mit hohem Einkommen müssen ihre Emissionen besonders entschlossen senken. 10% der Verursacher sind für 36-45% der Emissionen verantwortlich. Das ist zehnmal so viel wie die ärmsten 10%, die nur für 3-5% der Emissionen verantwortlich sind.

      • Ab sofort dürfen keine neuen fossilen Kraftwerke mehr entwickelt oder gebaut werden.
      • Lebensstil-Veränderungen sind ein wichtiges Mittel, darunter weniger Heizung und Klimatisierung sowie pflanenbasierte Ernährung, durch die sich bis zu 50% der Emissionen der westlichen Ernährung sparen lassen.
      • Es wird viel zu wenig in den Wechsel zu einer grünen Wirtschaft investiert.
  18. Jun 2021
  19. Nov 2020
    1. The report finds that strongly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting and restoring ecosystems, and carefully managing the use of natural resources would make it possible to preserve the ocean and cryosphere as a source of opportunities that support adaptation to future changes, limit risks to livelihoods and offer multiple additional societal benefits.
  20. Oct 2020
  21. Aug 2020
    1. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

      via Julia Steinberger.

  22. Sep 2019
    1. Table 2.2:

      IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C - Table 2.2: The assessed remaining carbon budget and its uncertainties