“Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb #COVID19. Don't do what we did” write 25 leading Swedish scientists “Sweden’s approach to COVID has led to death, grief & suffering. The only example we're setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease” https://usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/21/coronavirus-swedish-herd-immunity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

Sweden's approach to COVID has led to death, grief and suffering. The only example we're setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working.

10.1037/a0020997

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen tothemselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are “unrealisticallyoptimistic” in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate howunbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purelystatistical reasons. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigatingpeople’s comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraintsand the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. Weconclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of anoptimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably lessabout its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed

Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events: A Cautionary Note

10.31234/osf.io/rt64j

The aims of this study were to examine possible differences and factors that contribute to risk perception and compliance with preventive measures at the beginning (T1) and the end (T2) of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The sample consisted of 423 participants (M = 30.29, SD = 14.45; 69% female). Compliance, risk perception and trust in information were significantly higher in T1 than T2. For risk perception, significant predictors in both T1 and T2 were age, Emotionality (HEXACO-PI-R) and Unrealistic Optimism (NLE, Negative Life Events). Trust in information was a significant predictor in T1, while Unrealistic Optimism (Positive Life Events) was a signifi-cant predictor in T2. For compliance, significant predictors in T1 were gender and trust in information while in T2 were Emo-tionality, Extraversion, Conscientiousness (HEXACO-PI-R), NLE and trust in information, for both T1 and T2. In general, findings suggest a much more pronounced role of personality traits in adherence to protective measures at the end than at the beginning of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia. Also, the results indicate the role of unrealistic opti-mism regarding negative life events in lower compliance with protective measures.

Unrealistic optimism and HEXACO traits as predictors of risk perception and compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures during the first wave of pandemic

Tips oncountering conspiracy theoriesandmisinformation

Today, Wikipedia is the world’s leading encyclopedia. Every month, 1.5 billion unique devices worldwide access it 15 billion times, with more than 6000 page views per second. Meanwhile, Encyclopaedia Britannica—last printed in 2010—is now “all but dead” online, according to scholar Heather Ford in her essay in Wikipedia @ 20. The book’s 22 essays are wide-ranging, often intellectually engaging, and, in parts, stylishly written. Its 34 contributors include, fittingly, academics and nonacademics based in many countries, although predominantly in the United States. Its U.S.-based editors, Joseph Reagle and Jackie Koerner, are (respectively) a professor of communication studies and a qualitative research analyst for online communities who also acts as the community health consultant for the Wikimedia community.

Scholars reflect on Wikipedia’s 20 years of crowdsourced knowledge

Didier Raoult stands accused of touting drug as a coronavirus treatment without evidence

French professor faces disciplinary case over hydroxychloroquine claims

Four Reasons the Stay-at-Home Economy Is Here to Stay

10.31234/osf.io/gtm65

Previous research on predictors of populism has predominantly focused on socio-economic (e.g., education, employment, social status), and socio-cultural factors (e.g., social identity and social status). However, during the last years, the role of negative emotions has become increasingly prominent in the study of populism. We conducted a cross-national survey in 15 European countries (N=8059), measuring emotions towards the government and the elites, perceptions of threats about the future, and socio-economic factors as predictors of populist attitudes (the latter operationalized via three existing scales, anti-elitism, Manichaean outlook, people-centrism, and a newly developed scale on nativism). We tested the role of emotional factors in a deductive research design based on a structural model. Our results show that negative emotions (anger, contempt and anxiety) are better predictors of populist attitudes than mere socio-economic and socio-cultural factors. An inductive machine learning algorithm, Random Forest (RF), reaffirmed the importance of emotions across our survey dataset.

Socio-Economic or Emotional Predictors of Populist Attitudes across Europe

any similar failures to share as the end of year stock-taking approaches? 2/2

I've been pondering failed predictions today. A spectacular error of mine: in the early media rush to listen to scientists and doctors, I actually thought Western societies might be seeing the end of the "influencer" and a renewed interest in people who *did* stuff 1/2

Two states, similar background, neighbors Only big difference is in mid-November, a policy intervention And effects are sizeable. And visible. Obviously, its just a two state comparison But compelling And should remind us we know how to save lives until vaccines arrive Fin

For much of the pandemic, the two states have looked very similar Partly because both governors did a good job managing things When things got bad this fall, MI responded, OH didn’t If we need more evidence that policy matters, this graph should do it 5/6

So MI: cases are down 15%, hospitalizations up 29% OH: cases are up 79%, hospitalizations up 76% And you know that deaths will follow in the following couple of weeks In fact, let's look at the picture, which tells the story perfectly OH vs MI through December 11

Michigan put in restrictions on 11/15 Ohio did not What happend? Michigan 11/15 versus 12/10 Daily cases: 67 --> 57 new cases per 100K Hospitalizations: 31 --> 40 per 100K Ohio 11/15 versus 12/10 Daily cases 58 -->104 new cases per 100K Hospitalizations: 25 --> 44 per 100K

On 11/15, Michigan had 67 new cases / 100K population and 31 people in the hospital per 100K pop Ohio had, per 100K pop 58 new cases, 25 people in the hospital And as the graph shows, they were both increasing rapidly Here's that graph again through November 15

Similar states Similar policies But then, things changed mid-November So let’s talk data (@COVID19Tracking 7-day moving avgs) 3/9

On 11/15, Michigan announced series of restrictions Ohio didn’t We can compare the two to see if Michigan policies helped Why is Ohio a good comparison? OH a neighbor of similar size, make-up (urban/rural, etc) Here's COVID cases through 11/15 (OH in red, MI in blue)

Michigan vs. Ohio State Football today postponed due to COVID But a comparison of MI vs OH on COVID is useful Why? While vaccines are coming, we have 6-8 hard weeks ahead And the big question is -- can we do anything to save lives? Lets look at MI, OH for insights Thread

Disney Chief Executive Bob Chapek said the pandemic has likely permanently narrowed the window for movies to play only in theaters. Pre-pandemic, cinemas depended on an exclusive 90-day window to screen films before they were made available to home distribution channels, such as pay TV and streaming services. But now, studios are tinkering with that timeframe, either shortening it or doing away with it altogether.

Disney CEO says there’s no ‘going back’ to old way of movie watching

Big Five personality traits and COVID-19 precautionary behaviors among older adults in Europe

Objectives: Taking precaution against COVID-19 is important particularly among older adults who have a greater risk for severe illness if infected. We examined whether Big Five personality traits are associated with COVID-19 precautionary behaviors among older adults in Europe. Method: We used data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (N=34 801). Personality was self-reported in 2017 using the BFI-10 inventory. COVID-19 precautionary behaviors – wearing a mask, limiting social contacts, and keeping distance to others – were assessed in the summer of 2020 through self-reports. Associations between personality and precautionary behaviors were examined with multilevel random-intercept logistic regression models. The models were adjusted for age, gender, educational attainment, and country of residence. Results: Higher conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness were associated with a greater likelihood of wearing a face mask. Higher neuroticism was associated with a greater likelihood of limiting social contacts, and higher agreeableness with a lower likelihood of limiting social contacts. Higher conscientiousness was associated with a greater likelihood of keeping distance to others. The associations between personality and practicing precautionary behaviors were relatively weak. Discussion: Among older adults, taking COVID-19 precautionary behaviors was most consistently related to higher conscientiousness and neuroticism, suggesting that precautionary behaviors may be motivated by multiple psychological differences.

10.31234/osf.io/rvbjf

Herd Immunity as a Coronavirus Pandemic Strategy

Would letting coronavirus infect the broad US and global population be a safe and effective means of ending the COVID-19 pandemic? Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, of Stanford University's Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research is a signatory of the 'Great Barrington Declaration,' which proposes to "allow those at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk." Marc Lipsitch, PhD, of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, a signatory of the 'John Snow Memorandum' which refutes the argument, responds.

COVID-19: suggested principles of safer singing

The True Shape of the Covid-19 Pandemic May Surprise You

With Covid-19 infections still high and people preparing for Christmas gatherings, it is vitally important to try to reduce the spread of infection in people’s homes as this is where infections are now most likely to be transmitted. Research suggests people who follow the advice from Germ Defence are less likely to catch flu or other viruses and less likely to pass it on to members of their household. 

Spread Germ Defence, not the virus!

These are #CoronaRiots at a Dutch hospital. Cannot believe this

This guidance aims to optimise public health messaging and its outcomes. It is based on an evidence-based rapid review of the evidence1 of the factors that may influence people’s responses to public health messages for managing risks and preventing infectious diseases.

Delivering effective public health campaigns during Covid-19

10.31234/osf.io/nz7tr

Background Population level behaviour change, requiring individual behaviour change such as hand hygiene and physical distancing, are central to reducing transmission of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, but little is known about how best to communicate this type of risk reducing information, and how populations might respond. We conducted a rapid systematic review to identify and synthesise evidence relating to: a) What characterises effective public-health messages for managing risk and preventing infectious disease, and b) What influences people’s responses to public-health messages. Methods Rapid systematic review methodology was used. We included all study designs and grey literature. Non-English language papers were excluded. Ovid Medline, Ovid PsycINFO and Healthevidence.org were searched alongside PsyarXiv and OSF Preprints up to May 2020. A narrative synthesis was conducted. Findings We identified 70 eligible papers: 3 systematic reviews, 54 individual papers and 14 pre-prints. To influence behaviour effectively at the population level, public-health messages need to be acceptable, credible and trustworthy, to increase the public’s understanding and perceptions of the threat. Interpretation Key recommendations are to: engage communities in the development of public-health messaging, use credible and legitimate sources, address uncertainty immediately and with transparency, focus on unifying messages from all sources, and develop messages aimed at increasing understanding, induce social responsibility and empower personal control. Embedding these principles of behavioural science into public-health messaging is an important step towards more effective health-risk communication for managing risk, promoting protective behaviours and preventing disease during epidemics/pandemics.

What influences people’s responses to public health messages for managing risks and preventing infectious diseases? A rapid systematic review of the evidence and recommendations

As the UK approves the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine, these authors call for an inclusive approach to vaccine allocation

“It's working in mainland China with 1.4 billion people. It doesn't depend on being an island.” A pandemic adviser to the New Zealand government says achieving zero cases isn’t about the size of a country, but about “strong leadership”.

What colour is 6d46c4? It feels a bit of a nonsensical question to most of us. It’s a code for a certain colour in hexadecimal, familiar probably only to web designers. Similarly, print designers are used to working in Pantone colour codes; physicists in nanometres of wavelength. Most of us, though, simply do not think of colours in numerical terms. To us they are a purely qualitative, emotional experience. The same is true of “risk.” Most people also do not think of risks in numerical terms. When we at the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication were recently talking to members of the public about risks from covid-19 they did not use numbers at all. Even when we asked them to put a number on the chances of a person dying from covid-19 if they caught the virus, it was like asking them to give the wavelength of green light.

Alexandra Freeman: The strange world of risk perception, and communicating risks

10.1136/bmj.m4279

The lessons of the first and harshest lockdown in Europe have not been heeded as Italy drowns in a second wave, writes Marta PaterliniIn October, Giulia Chiarcossi, 80, called her doctor’s office to arrange her flu vaccination, as she has done every year for the past 15 years, usually getting it done straightaway. “My family doctor told me to call back in November,” she says, a little surprised. There were no flu vaccinations available.Mindful of the dangers of winter and a potential twin epidemic of covid-19 and influenza, the Italian Ministry of Health has for months urged regions to start administering flu vaccinations early and extend free coverage to people over 60.Chiarcossi lives in Brescia in the northern region of Lombardy, one of the epicentres of the first coronavirus wave, which began in February. Italy’s most wealthy and populous region, Lombardy was until May the hardest hit region in the whole of Europe.1Yet despite this, and the ministry’s plea, Lombardy’s regional government did not place its vaccine orders until September and started vaccinating only in mid-October. Some people have received flu vaccinations, but Chiarcossi is one of many who must wait until an unspecified date in November.More than one million Italians have been infected with covid-19 to date. “Now, again, it seems that Italy is trying to chase the virus instead of containing [it],” says Alberto Mantovani, scientific director of the Humanitas Research Hospital in Milan. “We are paying for a structural failure of our primary care.”

Covid:19: Italy has wasted the sacrifices of the first wave, say experts

Since early March the Covid Tracking Project has cataloged more than 170 million tests, becoming the authoritative source for virus statistics in the U.S.

Alexis Madrigal, Robinson Meyer, Erin Kissane, and Jeff Hammerbacher, the Pandemic Number Crunchers

We began the year in an optimistic mood by imagining the next decade of behavioral science. As the field celebrated something of a tenth birthday, we asked behavioral scientists to weigh in with their hopes, fears, and questions for the coming decade.

Most Read Articles of 2020

A student asked me today about the differences between confounding and effect modification. In this post I’ll try and distinguish these conceptually and illustrate the differences using some very large simple simulated datasets in R.

Confounding vs. effect modification

Only an event such as wartime evacuation can compare to lockdown. Plans for the young need to meet the challenge

A brutal Covid legacy awaits our children. We need the will and ambition to tackle it