Scientists zero in on long-sought marker of COVID-vaccine efficacy

Digital contact tracing has the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19. A contact-tracing smartphone app that has been readily adopted by people in England and Wales has shown efficacy in reducing disease spread.

10.1038/d41586-021-01354-8

Contact-tracing app curbed the spread of COVID in England and Wales

10.31234/osf.io/kz4pg

Objective: This study outlines the construction and initial psychometric properties of the Coronavirus Impact Scale in multiple large and diverse samples of families with children and adolescents. The scale was established to capture the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Differences in impact between samples and internal structure within samples were assessed. Method: Five hundred, seventy-two caregivers of children and adolescents or expecting mothers in diverse clinical and research settings completed the Coronavirus Impact Scale. Samples differed in developmental stage, background, inpatient/outpatient status, and primary research or clinical setting. Model free methods were used to measure the scale’s internal structure and determine a scoring method. Differences between samples in specific item responses were measured by multivariate ordinal regression. Results: The Coronavirus Impact Scale demonstrated good internal consistency in a variety of clinical and research populations. Single, immigrant, predominantly Latinx mothers of young children reported the greatest impact across groups, with elevated impact on food access and finances. Individuals receiving outpatient or inpatient care reported greater impacts on health care access. Impact was positively associated with measures of caregiver anxiety and both caregiver- and child-reported stress at a moderate effect size. Conclusion: The Coronavirus Impact Scale is a publicly available scale with adequate psychometric properties for use in measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in diverse populations.

The Coronavirus Impact Scale: Construction, Validation, and Comparisons in Diverse Clinical Samples

Scientists, unions and teachers concerned after data cut from Public Health England report ahead of shift on face masks

No 10 ‘tried to block’ data on spread of new Covid variant in English schools

Focus was put on Bolton so government could say it was still safe to ease lockdown, it is claimed

Ministers ‘failed to act on Bedford Covid variant surge for two weeks’

All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill

10.31234/osf.io/cs73g

Doctoral Researchers (DRs) are an important part of the academic community and, after graduating, make substantial social and economic contributions. Despite this importance, DR wellbeing has long been of concern. Recent studies have concluded that DRs may be particularly vulnerable to poor mental health problems, but direct comparisons of the prevalence of mental health problems between them and a control group is lacking. Here, by comparing DRs with educated working controls, we show that DRs report significantly greater anxiety and depression, and that this difference is not explained by a higher rate of pre-existing mental health problems. Moreover, most DRs perceive poor mental health as a ‘normal’ part of the PhD process. Thus, our findings suggest a hazardous impact of PhD study on mental health, with DRs being particularly at risk of developing common mental health problems. This provides an evidence-based mandate for universities and funders to reflect upon practices related to DR training and mental health. Our attention should now be directed towards understanding what factors may explain heightened anxiety and depression among DRs so as to inform preventative measures and interventions.

Nationwide assessment of the mental health of UK Doctoral Researchers

We are writing ahead of your crucial summit meeting in the United Kingdom to urge you to provide the leadership the world needs in responding to covid-19.  It is now imperative that we put in place a financial plan of action for achieving the vaccine equity needed to save lives, restore hope, and overcome the pandemic—and your summit provides an opportunity to underpin that plan with financial commitments.

Covid-19: We must put in place a financial plan of action for achieving vaccine equity

arXiv:2105.08992v1

We investigate the effect of degree correlation on a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) modelwith a nonlinear cooperative effect (synergy) in infectioustransmissions. In a mean-field treatmentof the synergistic SIS model on a bimodal network with tunable degree correlation, we identify adiscontinuous transition that is independent of the degreecorrelation strength unless the synergy isabsent or extremely weak. Regardless of synergy (absent or present), a positive and negative degreecorrelation in the model reduces and raises the epidemic threshold, respectively. For networkswith a strongly positive degree correlation, the mean-fieldtreatment predicts the emergence oftwo discontinuous jumps in the steady-state infected density. To test the mean-field treatment, weprovide approximate master equations of the present model,which accurately describe the synergisticSIS dynamics. We quantitatively confirm all qualitative predictions of the mean-field treatment innumerical evaluations of the approximate master equations

Synergistic epidemic spreading in correlated networks

10.31234/osf.io/2umfe

In three studies, I found evidence that people living in less socially inclusive countries (operationalized as having weaker rule of law, and lack of equality and press freedom) have a greater tendency for conspiracy ideation. In Study 1 (21 countries, N = 22,238), participants in less inclusive countries were more likely to believe in conspiracies, even after adjusting for country-level differences in educational performance. Study 2 (24 countries, N = 4,743) and Study 3 (23 countries, N = 5,726) replicated this result by using individual-level education status and scientific literacy as covariates, respectively. The associations between inclusiveness and conspiracy beliefs was stronger for people with higher levels of educational attainment and scientific literacy. I argue that this is because real conspiracies are more likely to actually happen in less inclusive contexts; thus, it is more rational to have increased levels of suspicion of secret and hostile alliances in such countries.

When Conspiracy Theories Make Sense: The Role of Social Inclusiveness

10.31234/osf.io/rc2ns

The COVID-19 syndemic, with a disproportionately higher adverse impact on communities of color (i.e., COVID-19 infection and death), will likely exacerbate the existing health disparities in trauma-related symptoms between people of color (POC) and White Americans. However, no studies have examined the racial disparities in posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) during COVID-19. Grounded in ecological theory and racial trauma framework, we investigated rates of racial disparities in PTSS and three possible mechanisms, 1) COVID stress, 2) direct racism, and 3) indirect racism, for these discrepancies using a large U.S. national sample (N = 2,019). Results indicated that POC reported higher levels of PTSS than White Americans (d =.21). The PTSS racial disparity was accounted more by direct and indirect racism than by the COVID-19-specific stressors, after controlling for age, gender, education, income, parent status, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), and intimate partner violence (IPV). Additional fine-grained analyses for Hispanic/Latinx Americans (n = 283), Black/African Americans (n = 279), and Asian American and Pacific Islanders (n = 123) by and large corroborated the above findings. Our findings highlighted the deleterious impact of the ongoing racism pandemic on the POC community as a public health crisis in addition to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Racism, Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms, and Racial Disparity in the U.S. COVID-19 Syndemic

10.31234/osf.io/sf7b6

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a novel population-level stressor. As such, it is important to examine pandemic-related changes in mental health and to identify which individuals are at greatest risk of worsening symptoms. Methods: Online questionnaires were administered to 34,465 individuals in the UK, recruited from existing cohorts or via social media. Around one third (n = 12,718) with prior diagnoses of depression or anxiety completed pre-pandemic mental health assessments, allowing prospective investigation of symptom change. We examined changes in depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms using prospective, retrospective and global ratings of change assessments. We also examined the effect of key risk factors on changes in symptoms. Outcomes: Prospective analyses showed small decreases in depression (PHQ-9: - .43 points) and anxiety symptoms (GAD-7: -.33 points), and increases in PTSD symptoms (PCL-6: .22 points). Conversely, retrospective analyses demonstrated large significant increases in depression (2.40 points) and anxiety symptoms (1.97 points) and 55% reported worsening mental health since the beginning of the pandemic on a global change rating. Using both prospective and retrospective symptom measures, regression analyses demonstrated that worsening depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms were associated with i) prior mental health diagnoses, ii) female gender; iii) young age, and iv) unemployed or student status. Interpretation: We highlight the effect of prior mental health diagnoses on worsening mental health during the pandemic and confirm previously-reported sociodemographic risk factors. Discrepancies between prospective and retrospective measures of changes in mental health may be related to recall bias underestimating prior symptom severity.

Depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

10.31234/osf.io/qk9hb

The COVID-19 pandemic is increasing older people's existing challenges in engaging with their physical and social worlds, and is thereby likely to worsen their loneliness. Digital technology has been offered as a potential aid for social connectedness during social distancing/isolation. However, many popular digital communication tools have not been designed to specifically address the needs of older adults impacted by social isolation. We propose that the social identity approach to health and the Social Identity Model of Identity Change (SIMIC) could be a foundation for digital interventions to address loneliness. While SIMIC applies to maintaining wellbeing during life transitions, it has not previously been rigorously applied to digital interventions. There are known challenges to integrating psychological theory to the design of digital technology, such as efficacy, user-autonomy, and engagement. The interdisciplinary field of Human Computer Interaction has a history of drawing on models originating from psychology to improve the design of digital technology and to design technologies in an appropriate manner. Drawing on key lessons from this literature, we consolidate design guidelines that could assist in applying SIMIC to digital interventions for loneliness in older people affected by the pandemic.

Loneliness in Older People and COVID-19: Applying the Social Identity Approach to Digital Intervention Design

10.1038/s41562-021-01115-7

While scholarly attention to date has focused almost entirely on individual-level drivers of vaccine confidence, we show that macro-level factors play an important role in understanding individual propensity to be confident about vaccination. We analyse data from the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey covering over 120,000 respondents in 126 countries to assess how societal-level trust in science is related to vaccine confidence. In countries with a high aggregate level of trust in science, people are more likely to be confident about vaccination, over and above their individual-level scientific trust. Additionally, we show that societal consensus around trust in science moderates these individual-level and country-level relationships. In countries with a high level of consensus regarding the trustworthiness of science and scientists, the positive correlation between trust in science and vaccine confidence is stronger than it is in comparable countries where the level of social consensus is weaker.

Trust in science, social consensus and vaccine confidence

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urges developed world to donate Covid vaccines to Covax programme

Vaccinate vulnerable global poor before children in rich countries, WHO says

I do get why people want to shout at me. It totally sucks. But I think (again, personal opinion) we just know too little about B.1.617.2 except that it's spreading rapidly & the risks are quite high. Below is from this week's SAGE paper from Warwick. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984533/S1229_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf… 5/5

Public Health England just released an updated report on B.1.671.2 . Cases more than doubled again in the last week (from 520 -> 1313). Looking at "S gene" detection as a proxy, B.1.617.2 might already be dominant in London & NW (SW is mostly traveller cases). 4/5

@markaustintv pointed out that people would be shouting at the telly hearing me suggest delaying Monday's opening... this is what I said about that. 3/5

I then also said what I, personally, thought that meant for next steps. Added to these must be much more support for local teams to beat outbreaks *and* proper financial & practical support for those who test positive & contacts. Once in place, could enable safer opening. 2/5

SHORT THREAD: I was on Sky News earlier where I explained why I thought test 4 (new variant test) for the next stage of the roadmap had not been met, because of B.1.617.2 (the so called "Indian" variant of concern). 1/5

10.1101/2021.05.03.21256556

Determining policies to end the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will require an understanding of the efficacy and effectiveness (hereafter, efficacy) of vaccines. Beyond the efficacy against severe disease and symptomatic and asymptomatic infection, understanding vaccine efficacy against transmission will help model epidemic trajectory and determine appropriate control measures. Recent studies have proposed using random virologic testing in individual randomized controlled trials to improve estimation of vaccine efficacy against infection. We propose to further use the viral load measures from these tests to estimate efficacy against transmission. This estimation requires a model of the relationship between viral load and transmissibility and assumptions about the vaccine effect on transmission and the progress of the epidemic. We describe these key assumptions, potential violations of them, and solutions that can be implemented to mitigate these violations. Assessing these assumptions and implementing this random sampling, with viral load measures, will enable better estimation of the crucial measure of vaccine efficacy against transmission.

Estimating vaccine efficacy against transmission via effect on viral load

Early on in the pandemic Germany committed to purchasing all vaccines through the EU despite delays. Now some want to make an exception for the Russian vaccine Sputnik V.

Germany, Russia and the Sputnik V vaccine — a tale of soft power

Carlson knows anti-vaxxers have become a big part of Trump’s Republican Party and that they are easy marks as he hustles to up the ante and amp up the outrage.

Tucker Carlson May Be America’s Biggest Public Health Problem

This document outlines how the national and NHS England region estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate are produced and subsequently published on GOV.UK: section 1 below outlines how each academic group produces their individual estimates, using a mixture of data sources and modelling techniques section 2 below outlines how these estimates are statistically combined to form a single consensus range section 3 below outlines the approval and quality assurance process that the individual and combined estimates go through to ensure they are robust and reliable section 4 below outlines how the final consensus range is communicated

Reproduction number (R) and growth rate: methodology

French president says US and UK should start exporting doses around the world instead

Macron voices concerns over Covid vaccines patent waiver

With the successful development and distribution of new vaccines, there is hope in the United States that the acute phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may soon end. 

It's too soon to declare vaccine victory — four strategies for continued progress

A surge of attacks in one of Canada’s most multicultural cities during the pandemic is surfacing long-simmering racial tensions.

This Is the Anti-Asian Hate Crime Capital of North America

All medical treatments have potential harms as well as potential benefits, and it's important to be able to weigh these against each other. With vaccines, the benefits are particularly complex as they can involve benefits to others as well as to ourselves - and the harms can feel particularly acute because we take vaccines when we are healthy, as a preventative measure.With the initial release of data from the MHRA on a specific type of blood clot recorded in the UK that might be associated with the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine, the Winton Centre were asked to help communicate the risks. Now more data is available, we have updated our graphics.The blood-clot estimates are based on the MHRA’s yellow-card reports and so they have uncertainty around them, both because the small number of events mean there is uncertainty about the underlying risk, and that cases may yet to be reported. With very rare events like this we expect the rates to fluctuate as more data comes in so it’s not surprising to see changes from week to week.

News - Latest data from the MHRA on blood clots associated with the Astra Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine

The largest country in Latin America now has states and cities where deaths are outpacing births

Brazil’s Pandemic Is a ‘Biological Fukushima’ That Threatens the Entire Planet

A people-to-people initiative to speed the spread of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide

Get1Give1 Worldwide

The European Union has opted not to renew an order for AstraZeneca to supply its coronavirus vaccine after June.

European Union opts not to renew AstraZeneca vaccines contract after supply row

WHO review finds many national vaccination plans exclude asylum seekers, refugees, migrants and IDPs

Revealed: 46m displaced people excluded from Covid jab programmes

10.1136/bmj.n1123

Among widespread calls for a public inquiry into England’s response to the covid-19 pandemic, the King’s Fund has proposed a potential framework for an inquiry under five key headings: “Intrinsic risk,” “Public health response,” “Healthcare system response,” “Measures in wider society,” and “Adult social care response.”1 All partly depend on the role of government and its agencies. I realise that a public inquiry can produce an evidenced narrative and recommendations, but the need and demand for one highlights a serious failure of open elected government and leadership at the highest levels.

David Oliver: A vision for transparent post-covid government

10.31234/osf.io/mvtwu

Interacting with others wearing a face mask has become a regular worldwide practice since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the impact of face masks on cognitive mechanisms supporting social interaction is still largely unexplored. In the present work we focused on gaze cueing of attention, a phenomenon tapping the essential ability which allows individuals to orient their attentional resources in response to eye gaze signals coming from others. Participants from both a Western (i.e., Italy; Experiment 1) and an Asian (i.e., China; Experiment 2) country were involved, namely two countries in which the daily use of face masks before COVID-19 pandemic was either extremely uncommon or frequently adopted, respectively. Both samples completed a task in which a peripheral target had to be discriminated while a task irrelevant averted gaze face, wearing a mask or not, acted as a central cueing stimulus. Overall, a reliable and comparable gaze cueing emerged in both experiments, independent of the mask condition. These findings suggest that social attention is preserved even when the person perceived is wearing a face mask.

Social attention during COVID-19 pandemic: Face masks do not alter gaze cueing of attention

Seychelles is most vaccinated country in the world...but right now has more COVID cases per capita than India (!). How is that possible? Most vaccines used are Sinopharm. Which significantly reduces serious illness/death...but doesn’t do much to reduce transmission.

The German government said while they support global vaccine supplies, "the protection of intellectual property is a source of innovation and must remain so in the future."

Germany rejects US push to waive COVID vaccine patents

Distance clouds perspective. The covid-19 pandemic is in a dangerous new phase, ripping through Brazil and India, two of the world’s emerging powers, with all middle and low income countries at risk. Neither country achieved herd immunity, as some politicians and scientists recklessly claimed. Yet the scale of death and fear feels distant from the UK. It shouldn’t. Just as the effects of environmental damage shouldn’t feel distant either. They already affect us directly.1 These aren’t merely other people’s problems. It is this “othering” that precipitated the failed pandemic responses of the UK, US, and much of Europe. Any isolationism or exceptionalism we sow today will reap a future harvest of premature death and worse health.

10.1136/bmj.n1152

Covid-19: India’s crisis is everyone’s crisis

Inequality’s deadly toll

Analysis: US now supports waivers, but experts say on its own it will not have a decisive impact on vaccine inequality

Covid vaccines: what is patent waiving and will it solve the global shortage?

Exclusive: Leaked emails show Public Health England assessment of ongoing risk from B16172 variant is ‘high’

New concerns as Indian Covid variant clusters found across England

Could today’s version of America have been able to win World War II? It hardly seems possible.That victory required national cohesion, voluntary sacrifice for the common good and trust in institutions and each other. America’s response to Covid-19 suggests that we no longer have sufficient quantities of any of those things. window.onload = function () { const target = document.querySelector('#push-signup'); const options = { channel: 'david-brooks', region: 'top-banner', productCode: 'PUDB', channelName: 'David Brooks', ctaMsg: 'Get alerts when we publish', subscribedMsg: 'You’re signed up to receive alerts from', }; const config = { target, options, }; pushSignup(config); }; In 2020 Americans failed to socially distance and test for the coronavirus and suffered among the highest infection and death rates in the developed world. Millions decided that wearing a mask infringed their individual liberty.

Our Pathetic Herd Immunity Failure

Fixed version: here's how the Imperial College model of Neil Ferguson performed over 1 year. I used their most conservative R0 assumption, so this is actually generous to them.

yes, that's what I took it to mean. My point was how can you calculate a prediction mismatch for this scenario, given that it didn't happen - ie we can't observe what happened in the cell "government didn't do anything".

"Unmitigated" appears to mean "if the government didn't do anything", compared to lockdowns.

this is utterly bizarre : how would one conceptually even begin to determine a number by which the model *overestimated unmitigated deaths*. What is the comparison unmitigated "prediction" to what actually happened supposed to mean?