BackgroundDespite the high efficacy of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), rare breakthrough infections have been reported, including infections among health care workers. Data are needed to characterize these infections and define correlates of breakthrough and infectivity. MethodsAt the largest medical center in Israel, we identified breakthrough infections by performing extensive evaluations of health care workers who were symptomatic (including mild symptoms) or had known infection exposure. These evaluations included epidemiologic investigations, repeat reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assays, antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT), serologic assays, and genomic sequencing. Correlates of breakthrough infection were assessed in a case–control analysis. We matched patients with breakthrough infection who had antibody titers obtained within a week before SARS-CoV-2 detection (peri-infection period) with four to five uninfected controls and used generalized estimating equations to predict the geometric mean titers among cases and controls and the ratio between the titers in the two groups. We also assessed the correlation between neutralizing antibody titers and N gene cycle threshold (Ct) values with respect to infectivity. ResultsAmong 1497 fully vaccinated health care workers for whom RT-PCR data were available, 39 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections were documented. Neutralizing antibody titers in case patients during the peri-infection period were lower than those in matched uninfected controls (case-to-control ratio, 0.361; 95% confidence interval, 0.165 to 0.787). Higher peri-infection neutralizing antibody titers were associated with lower infectivity (higher Ct values). Most breakthrough cases were mild or asymptomatic, although 19% had persistent symptoms (>6 weeks). The B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant was found in 85% of samples tested. A total of 74% of case patients had a high viral load (Ct value, <30) at some point during their infection; however, of these patients, only 17 (59%) had a positive result on concurrent Ag-RDT. No secondary infections were documented. ConclusionsAmong fully vaccinated health care workers, the occurrence of breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 was correlated with neutralizing antibody titers during the peri-infection period. Most breakthrough infections were mild or asymptomatic, although persistent symptoms did occur.

10.1056/NEJMoa2109072

Persistent hype around mRNA vaccine technology is now distracting us from other ways to end the pandemic.

A short video on randomisation

Understanding COVID-19 is a 2-day course (April 20th and 21st) intended to provide interested high school students with exposure to concepts in biotechnology through the lens of the COVID-19 pandemic. Students will leave the course able to answer the following questions:

What is already known about this topic? Symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection are milder in children compared with adults. What is added by this report? Among 121 SARS-CoV-2–associated deaths among persons aged <21 years reported to CDC by July 31, 2020, 12 (10%) were infants and 85 (70%) were aged 10–20 years. Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native persons accounted for 94 (78%) of these deaths; 33% of deaths occurred outside of a hospital. What are the implications for public health practice? Persons aged <21 years exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be monitored for complications. Ongoing surveillance for SARS-CoV-2–associated infection, hospitalization, and death among persons aged <21 years should be continued as schools reopen in the United States.

10.15585/mmwr.mm6937e4

Long-term complications after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are common in hospitalized patients, but the spectrum of symptoms in milder cases needs further investigation. We conducted a long-term follow-up in a prospective cohort study of 312 patients—247 home-isolated and 65 hospitalized—comprising 82% of total cases in Bergen during the first pandemic wave in Norway. At 6 months, 61% (189/312) of all patients had persistent symptoms, which were independently associated with severity of initial illness, increased convalescent antibody titers and pre-existing chronic lung disease. We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61). Our findings that young, home-isolated adults with mild COVID-19 are at risk of long-lasting dyspnea and cognitive symptoms highlight the importance of infection control measures, such as vaccination.

10.1038/s41591-021-01433-3

We tested the link between COVID-19 conspiracy theories and health protective behaviours in three studies: one at the onset of the pandemic in the United Kingdom (UK), a second just before the first national lockdown, and a third during that lockdown (N = 302, 404 and 399). We focused on conspiracy theories that did not deny the existence of COVID-19 and evaluated the extent to which they predicted a range of health protective behaviours, before and after controlling for psychological and sociodemographic characteristics associated with conspiracy theory belief. COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs were positively correlated with beliefs in other unrelated conspiracies and a general conspiracy mind-set, and negatively correlated with trust in government and a tendency towards analytical thinking (vs. intuitive thinking). Unexpectedly, COVID-19 conspiracy believers adhered to basic health guidelines and advanced health protective measures as strictly as non-believers. Conspiracy believers were, however, less willing to install the contact-tracing app, get tested for and vaccinated against COVID-19, and were more likely to share COVID-19 misinformation – all of which might undermine public health initiatives. Study 3 showed conspiracy theory believers were less willing to undertake health protective behaviours that were outside of their personal control, perceiving these as having a negative balance of risks and benefits. We discuss models explaining conspiracy beliefs and health protective behaviours, and suggest practical recommendations for public health initiatives.

10.1002/ejsp.2796

New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, adopted a “go hard, go early” approach to eliminate COVID-19. Although she and her Labour party are considered left-leaning, the policies implemented during the pandemic (e.g., police road blocks) have the hallmarks of Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA). RWA is characterised by three attitudinal clusters (authoritarian aggression, submission, and conventionalism). The uniqueness of the clusters, and whether they react to environmental change, has been debated. Here, in the context of the pandemic, we investigate the relationship between political orientation and RWA. Specifically, we measured political orientation, support for New Zealand’s major political parties, and RWA among 1,430 adult community members. A multivariate Bayesian model demonstrated that, in the middle of a pandemic, both left-leaning and right-leaning individuals endorsed items tapping authoritarian submission. Demonstrating the multidimensional nature of RWA, this change occurred at the same time the typical relationships between political orientation and authoritarian aggression and conventionalism was observed.

10.31234/osf.io/hu9ef

A hospital in Bolton has said it is taking "urgent action" to manage a surge in patients with Covid-19.Royal Bolton Hospital said it had experienced "one of the busiest days ever" and urged people to attend A&E only "if absolutely necessary".Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said the government made a "major communications error" in not announcing new Covid travel advice for the town.

A video on Facebook shows a magnet sticking to a glass vial containing a clear solution and what appear to be small metallic objects.  The video has been shared hundreds of times and bears a similarity to viral videos in which people who have received a Covid-19 vaccine incorrectly claim their arm has since become magnetic at the site of injection.  While this video does not explicitly state that the vial contains a Covid-19 vaccine, the account that shared the video included a vaccine emoji in the caption, indicating that they are linking the clip to vaccines. 

The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) programme is the largest, most significant piece of research looking at how the virus is spreading across the country.  The study is being carried out by a world-class team of scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI, and was commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care.

A collection of resources on Covid-19 vaccines, including frequently asked questions, continuing medical education, published research, and commentary.

What are the most significant words and phrases associated with vaccines by day thus far this year? To explore this question further we scanned the Global Relationship Graph's (GRG) Realtime Verb-Centered NGram Pilot for all records containing the word "vaccin*" since the start of this year in English language online news coverage, yielding a total of 15.3M entries. We then aggregated the statements by day and performed a simple TF-IDF analysis entirely in BigQuery to yield a daily chronology of the most significant words and phrases found within 10 words of "vaccin*," tracing the macro level evolution of vaccine coverage thus far this year. We generated four different versions to showcase different ways of filtering the data. The first two look for significant words, while the second two look for the most significant two-word phrases. We tested a cutoff that required matching words/phrases to appear more than 20 times that day or more than 250 times that day to show how a simple filter can be used to tradeoff relevance and reach. Each is available as a CSV file.

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association the virus will establish with the human population, particularly whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts, and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fueled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection, and reentries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here, we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions. We outline these and propose a way forward.

10.1038/s41586-021-03792-w

10.31478/202107a

The emergence in China of a new human coronavirus that is causing an epidemic of flu-like disease has sparked a parallel viral spread: science – ranging from robust to rogue – is being conducted, posted and shared at an unprecedented rate.

Meet the influencers making millions by dealing doubt about the coronavirus vaccines.

Search results may include a special section with videos from sources that are deemed reliable

Currently approved viral vector-based and mRNA-based vaccine approaches against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) consider only homologous prime-boost vaccination. After reports of thromboembolic events, several European governments recommended using AstraZeneca’s ChAdOx1-nCov-19 (ChAd) only in individuals older than 60 years, leaving millions of already ChAd-primed individuals with the decision to receive either a second shot of ChAd or a heterologous boost with mRNA-based vaccines. However, such combinations have not been tested so far. We used Hannover Medical School’s COVID-19 Contact Study cohort of healthcare professionals to monitor ChAd-primed immune responses before and 3 weeks after booster with ChAd (n = 32) or BioNTech/Pfizer’s BNT162b2 (n = 55). Although both vaccines boosted prime-induced immunity, BNT162b2 induced significantly higher frequencies of spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and, in particular, high titers of neutralizing antibodies against the B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 variants of concern of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

10.1038/s41591-021-01449-9

How does the COVID-19 narrative differ across television, radio and online news and across outlets? Is COVID-19 being covered differently than past disease outbreaks like Ebola or Zika and what can we learn from those communication efforts that could help inform public health communication about the current pandemic? To help answer these critical questions, the M-DRC is working with GDELT to use Google’s Cloud Video and Cloud Speech To Text APIs to non-consumptively analyze selections of the Internet Archive’s Television News Archive and Radio News Archive in a secure research environment, analyzing in total more than 4.9 million minutes of television news across 1,113 days 2009-present and 2.5 million minutes of radio since the start of this year to create an open set of non-consumptive annotations to enable public health communication research on how the COVID-19 pandemic has been communicated to the public and how those communicative efforts compare with the pandemics of the past decade, including Cholera, Ebola, E. coli, Measles, MERS, Salmonella and Zika and a portion of the opioid epidemic.

Covid-19 disrupted the fabric of academic collaboration. Scholars cancelled or delayed in-person talks, seminars, and conferences in an effort to reduce transmission of the virus. In many instances, the academic profession turned to various online platforms to share ideas. What are the possible long-term consequences of this development? Drawing on the experience of organizing an online workshop for early career researchers in modern British history, this article argues that virtual seminars and conferences should become a permanent part of intellectual exchange. This article provides practical guidance to others seeking to establish similar projects within and beyond the historical profession. It uses survey material from workshop presenters and attendees to assess the challenges and merits of using online platforms, and then discusses their longer term significance. Despite some drawbacks in their operation, online platforms offer advantages that include widening participation and responding to the climate crisis. Virtual collaboration facilitates the participation of scholars normally excluded from central field discussions due to location, expense, or institutional status, and it also furthers global scholarly interactions without generating a significant carbon footprint. This article argues that rather than a temporary stop-gap during a pandemic, online seminars present new opportunities for the future of collaboration if embedded as part of a mix with of in-person events. In its conclusion, it presents five proposals for improving virtual collaboration in the future.

10.1080/13642529.2021.1934290

Setting the stage for a discussion of the Table 2 Fallacy (Part 1). Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Fyw... Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOoUu... Table 2 Fallacy paper: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/... Shahar commentary: http://www.u.arizona.edu/~shahar/The%... === 0:00 Intro: seminal paper, commentary 4:20 Intro: measures of effect, bias, confounding 8:14 Intro: observation, randomization, 2x2 tables 13:41 Intro: stratification, adjusted models 20:03 Table 2 Fallacy: example Table 2, definition === intuitive EPIDEMIOLOGY: with the goal of developing your intuitions ('gut feelings'), this channel discusses epidemiology and related content (e.g., scientific papers and media articles) in a non-technical and accessible manner. Creator: Taylor McLinden, PhD (http://www.taylormclinden.ca) YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/intuitiveEPI Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/intuitiveEPI Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/intuitiveEPI Web: http://www.intuitiveEPI.com Contact: intuitiveEPI[at]gmail.com Thanks to Shapestate Creative (https://www.shapestate.ca) for the logo and banner graphics.

While recent studies have investigated how health messages on vaccine characteristics shift public intentions to get a COVID-19 vaccine, few studies investigate the impact of real-world, widely shared vaccine misinformation on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Moreover, there is currently no research that investigates how exposure to hesitancy, as compared to misinformation, is associated with COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Based on data from a nationally representative survey experiment conducted in March 2021 (N=1083), exposure to outright COVID-19 vaccine misinformation as well as exposure to vaccine hesitancy induces a decline in COVID-19 vaccination intentions to protect self and to get the vaccine to protect others in New Zealand, compared to factual information from government authorities. Moreover, there is no significant difference in exposure to misinformation or hesitancy in self-reported change in COVID-19 vaccination intentions. However, respondents are more likely to believe in vaccine hesitancy information and share such information with family and followers compared to misinformation. Implications for research in health communication campaigns on COVID-19 are presented.

10.3389/fcomm.2021.721982

10.1126/sciadv.abd1705

10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00628-0

10.31234/osf.io/csfte

10.1007/s42001-020-00086-5

10.1136/bmj.n26

10.3390/fi12120210

10.1136/bmj.n1686

10.3201/eid2702.203139

10.1016/j.immuni.2021.06.012

10.3389/fpsyg.2020.566790

10.1016/j.immuni.2021.06.006

Rising coronavirus cases in Israel, where most residents are inoculated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, offer “a preliminary signal” the vaccine may be less effective at preventing mild illness from the Delta variant, a top expert said Monday.

The early signs were not good. France is a poster child for vaccine scepticism and surveys last year revealed a lack of enthusiasm for any COVID-19 vaccine. In the 2016 Vaccine Confidence Index, France was the hesitancy hotspot. Just 41% of people agreed that vaccines are safe. A similar EU study in 2018 suggested some improvement but, as COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out, there was reason for pessimism in Paris. There was no reason to hope that minds would change during a public health crisis. During the 2009/2010 H1N1 flu pandemic, vaccine uptake in France was abysmal. Even among GPs, flu vaccine uptake in 2010 was low. A study on attitudes to COVID-19 vaccines published in April 2021, predicted 29% refusal rates. 

How France overcame COVID-19 vaccine scepticism

Knowing what misinformation is being shared can help you generate effective messaging.These insights are based on a combination of automated media monitoring and manual review by public health data analysts. Media data are publicly available data from many sources, such as social media, broadcast television, newspapers and magazines, news websites, online video, blogs, and more. Analysts from the Public Good Projects triangulate this data along with other data from fact checking organizations and investigative sources to provide an accurate, but not exhaustive, list of currently circulating misinformation.

Misinformation Alerts

Novavax applies for WHO emergency use approval – as it happened

Here’s a round up of the latest key developments: Coronavirus has caused male life expectancy in the UK to drop for the first time since records began. A boy born between 2018 and 2020 is expected to live until he is 79 years old - a drop from 79.2 years for 2015-2017, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in England has dropped to its lowest level since the end of June. Novavax has announced that it has applied to the World Health Organization for an emergency-use listing of its Covid-19 vaccine. The listing is a prerequisite for export to several countries participating in the Covax vaccine-sharing facility Covid-19 could resemble the common cold by spring next year as people’s immunity to the virus is boosted by vaccines and exposure, a leading British expert has said. Prof Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, said the UK was “over the worst”. Portugal will lift almost all remaining Covid-19 restrictions, allowing full occupancy in restaurants and cultural venues from 1 October, the prime minister, Antonio Costa, said on Thursday. Thailand is considering cutting hotel isolation requirements for vaccinated tourists in half to one week in a bid to attract foreign visitors again. It comes amid delays to plans to waive quarantine and reopen Bangkok and other tourist destinations from next month after the pandemic caused a collapse in the country’s tourism industry Covid deaths in Russia, where 820 people died from the virus in the last 24 hours, matched the all-time one-day high reached in August. Since the start of the pandemic, Russia has recorded 7,354,995 coronavirus cases. The US Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday authorized a booster dose of the Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for those ages 65 and older and some high-risk Americans, paving the way for a quick rollout of the shots, Reuters reports. In the UK, record numbers of children and young people are seeking access to NHS mental health services, figures show, as the devastating toll of the pandemic is revealed in a new analysis. In just three months, nearly 200,000 young people have been referred to mental health services – almost double pre-pandemic levels, according to the report by the Royal College of Psychiatrists. More than 100 countries face cuts to public spending on health, education and social protection as the Covid-19 pandemic compounds already high levels of debt, a new report says. The International Monetary Fund believes that 35 to 40 countries are “debt distressed” – defined as when a country is experiencing difficulties in servicing its debt, such as when there are arrears or debt restructuring. A judge in the Netherlands has ruled that a 12-year-old boy can be administered a Covid vaccine against the wishes of his father. The unnamed boy in the city of Groningen had argued that he needed a vaccine to safely visit his dying grandmother. AstraZeneca has announced a deal with a startup founded by an Imperial College London vaccinologist to develop and sell drugs based on its self-amplifying RNA technology platform in other disease areas. That’s it from me. I’m handing over to my colleague Nadeem Badshah now. Thanks so much for joining me today.

Thanks for following along – this blog is now closed. You can catch up with the latest coronavirus coverage here.

Novavax applies for WHO emergency use approval – as it happened

At a certain point, it was no longer a matter of if the United States would reach the gruesome milestone of 1 in 500 people dying of covid-19, but a matter of when. A year? Maybe 15 months? The answer: 19 months.Given the mortality rate from covid and our nation’s population size, “we’re kind of where we predicted we would be with completely uncontrolled spread of infection,” said Jeffrey D. Klausner, clinical professor of medicine, population and public health sciences at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine. “Remember at the very beginning, which we don’t hear about anymore, it was all about flatten the curve.”

The pandemic marks anothergrim milestone: 1 in 500Americans have died of covid-19

More than 90% of Fox Corporation staff inoculated, according to memo announcing daily testing for unvaccinated employees

Nearly all Fox staffers vaccinated for Covid even as hosts cast doubt on vaccine

A province that has long boasted of its loose coronavirus restrictions has also been the site of North America’s highest caseloads

Canada: Alberta healthcare system on verge of collapse as Covid cases and anti-vax sentiments rise

There is no perfect option and it is a matter of choosing "the best set of trade-offs that we would wish to have", said Associate Professor Hsu Li Yang, an infectious diseases expert at the NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.

Pace of reopening amid Covid-19 depends on price Singapore is willing to pay, say experts

England’s deputy medical chief asked for data to be withheld unless British vaccine guinea pigs allowed to travel abroad

Ministers told to bar EU from UK trial data in vaccines row

How does Australia’s coronavirus vaccine rollout and schedule compare with other countries, and when will Australia reach 70% and 80% double dose vaccination? We bring together the latest numbers on the vaccination rate in Victoria, NSW, Queensland and other states, as well as stats, maps, live data and Indigenous vaccination rates.

Covid-19 vaccine Australia rollout tracker by state: total number of people and per cent vaccinated, daily vaccine doses and rate of progress

The home confinement imposed on people to fight the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the flow of time by disrupting daily life, making them feel that time was passing slowly. The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the evolution over time of this subjective experience of time and its significant predictors (boredom, decreased happiness, life rhythm, and sleep quality). Twso samples of French participants were followed up: the first for several weeks during the first lockdown (April 2020) and then 1year later (April 2021; Study 1), and the second during the first lockdown (April 2020) and then 6months (November 2020) and 1year later (April 2021; Study 2). Our study shows that the French participants have the feeling that time has passed slowly since the beginning of the first lockdown and that it has not resumed its normal course. This is explained by a persistent feeling of boredom characteristic of a depressive state that has taken hold in the population. The findings therefore suggest that the repeated contexts of confinement did not contribute to re-establishing a normal perception of time, to which a subjective acceleration of time would have testified.

10.3389/fpsyg.2021.721716

The Persistence of Slowed Time Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Two Longitudinal Studies in France

Does inadequate risk communication during uncertain times trigger the rise of conspiratorial ideas? We hypothesize that, where government COVID-19 risk communication started early, as measured by the number of days between the start of the communication campaign and the first case in the country, citizens are less likely to turn to conspiratorial explanations for the pandemic, which typically assign blame to powerful actors with secret interests. In Study 1a, we find strong support for our hypothesis in a global sample of 111 countries, using daily Google search volumes for QAnon as a measure of interest in QAnon, which is a conspiracy theory contending, among other things, that COVID-19 is a conspiracy orchestrated by powerful actors and aimed at repressing civil liberties. The effect is robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. In Study 1b, we show that the effect is not explainable by pre-pandemic cross-country differences in QAnon interest, nor by ‘secular’ rising interest in QAnon amid the pandemic. A one-standard deviation (26.2days) increase in communication lateness is associated with a 26% increase in QAnon interest. In pre-registered Study 2, we find limited support for the proposition that early communication reduces self-reported pandemic-related conspiratorial ideation in a sample of respondents from 51 countries. Overall, our results provide evidence that interest in extreme ideas, like QAnon, are highly responsive to government risk communication, while less extreme forms of conspiracism are perhaps less so.

10.3389/fpsyg.2021.681975

Early COVID-19 Government Communication Is Associated With Reduced Interest in the QAnon Conspiracy Theory

Early Israeli data signals Delta strain may bypass vaccine, cause mild illness

Low vaccination rates fueling crisis as four pregnant women die in a Mississippi hospital and Kentucky governor calls situation ‘dire’

Military doctors shore up exhausted health teams in US south amid Covid surge

Judge cites lack of ‘convincing evidence’ that drug is effective, siding with hospital that refused to administer medication

Ohio judge reverses court order forcing hospital to treat Covid patient with ivermectin

Kids were much more likely to be hospitalized as the delta variant became widespread, two studies from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday found. But children did not appear to contract more serious illness, requiring intensive care, for example, than in previous viral surges.

Delta Hospitalizes More U.S. Kids, Cuts Job Growth: Virus Update

10.1101/2021.09.03.21263086

Background One of the main challenges of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is to be able to make sense of available, but often heterogeneous and noisy data, to characterize the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, with the additional goal of having better preparedness and planning of healthcare services. This contribution presents a data-driven methodology that allows exploring the hospitalization dynamics of COVID-19, exemplified with a study of 17 autonomous regions in Spain.Methods We use data on new daily cases and hospitalizations reported by the Ministry of Health of Spain to implement a Bayesian inference method that allows making short and mid-term predictions of bed occupancy of COVID-19 patients in each of the autonomous regions of the country.Findings We show how to use given and generated temporal series for the number of daily admissions and discharges from hospital to reproduce the hospitalization dynamics of COVID-19 patients. For the case-study of the region of Aragon, we estimate that the probability of being admitted to hospital care upon infection is 0·090 [0·086-0·094], (95% C.I.), with the distribution governing hospital admission yielding a median interval of 3·5 days and an IQR of 7 days. Likewise, the distribution on the length of stay produces estimates of 12 days for the median and 10 days for the IQR. A comparison between model parameters for the regions analyzed allows to detect differences and changes in policies of the health authorities.Interpretation The amount of data that is currently available is limited, and sometimes unreliable, hindering our understanding of many aspects of this pandemic. We have observed important regional differences, signaling that to properly compare very different populations, it is paramount to acknowledge all the diversity in terms of culture, socio-economic status and resource availability. To better understand the impact of this pandemic, much more data, disaggregated and properly annotated, should be made available.

Unraveling the COVID-19 hospitalization dynamics in Spain using publicly available data

This report summarises the information from the surveillance systems which are used to monitor Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), influenza, and other seasonal respiratory viruses in England. References to COVID-19 represent the disease name and SARS-CoV-2 represent the virus name. The report is based ondata from week 33(between 16August and 22August2021) and for some indicators daily data up to 24August2021. Surveillance indicators suggest that at a national levelCOVID-19 activityremained stable in mostindicators, with slight increases in some indicators,in week 33of 2021.Laboratoryindicators suggest that influenza activity is very low.Overall case rates increased slightlyin week 33. Case rates increased slightly in most age groups andregions and in some ethnic groups. Overall Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 positivity remained stable compared to the previous week.The number of reported acute respiratory incidents in thepast week increased compared tothe previous week. SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the majority of these.COVID-19 hospitalisationsremained stablein week 33. Deaths with COVID-19decreasedin the most recent week.COVID-19 vaccine coverage was 63.9% for dose 1 at the end of week 33. COVID-19vaccine coverage was 55.9% for dose 2 at the end of week 33, reaching over 90% in allcohorts over the age of 65years and over 80% in all cohorts over 50years.Seroprevalencedata indicates that approximately97.7% of blood donors aged 17 and overhave antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from either infection or vaccination.Increases in seropositivity continue to be observed in those aged 17 to 29,following vaccination rollout.Through Respiratory Datamart, there werenoinfluenza positive samplesdetected in week 33. Other indicators for influenza such as hospital admissions and GP influenza-like illness consultation rates remainverylow. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity increased slightly from 13.9% in week 32 to 14.2% in week 33.Rhinovirus, parainfluenza, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity remained low at 6.8%, 1.2%, 1.1% and 0.8% respectively.

1Weekly national Influenza andCOVID-19 surveillance report

The International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID), along with partners at ProMED, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, the University of Sussex (UK), HealthMap at Boston Children’s Hospital/Harvard Medical School, and healthsites.io, developed a user-friendly tool to both forecast case counts during infectious disease outbreaks and estimate the risk of infectious disease cases arriving from and departing to specific geographic areas. The project — Mapping the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread — MRIIDS — assessed outbreak events reported on ProMED and HealthMap by combining multiple data streams into a single probabilistic framework.Disease outbreak information is assessed with automated intelligence capabilities that incorporates population density information to estimate the number of cases for specific outbreak events.Additionally, the algorithm provides a risk projection to describe where infectious diseases cases are most likely to arrive from and depart to for specific countries. The information generated by the platform is accessible free of charge and incorporated into a platform with extensive end-user testing.Developed based on data from the 2014-16 West Africa Ebola outbreak, the MRIIDS prototype was designed to be rapidly scalable by extending it to pathogens of significance to humans and animals on a global scale. The tool aims to inform key health decision-makers at national and regional levels of the risks of an outbreak spreading in real-time, and aids government and non-governmental decision-makers as they prepare for the possible arrival of an infectious disease threat to their region.

MRIIDS

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration amended the emergency use authorizations (EUAs) for both the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine and the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine to allow for the use of an additional dose in certain immunocompromised individuals, specifically, solid organ transplant recipients or those who are diagnosed with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss further clinical recommendations regarding immunocompromised individuals. Today’s action does not apply to people who are not immunocompromised.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Additional Vaccine Dose for Certain Immunocompromised Individuals

OVER a hundred doctors and health professionals have signed an open letter to the Prime Minister calling for an "open and proper scientific debate" about the pandemic policy arguing covid restrictions are based on flawed assumptions.

Hundreds of doctors sign open letter to PM: Need debate on 'flawed covid guesses'

10.1073/pnas.2109229118

Quantification of asymptomatic infections is fundamental for effective public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies regarding the extent of asymptomaticity have arisen from inconsistent terminology as well as conflation of index and secondary cases which biases toward lower asymptomaticity. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and World Health Organization Global Research Database on COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and April 2, 2021 to identify studies that reported silent infections at the time of testing, whether presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Index cases were removed to minimize representational bias that would result in overestimation of symptomaticity. By analyzing over 350 studies, we estimate that the percentage of infections that never developed clinical symptoms, and thus were truly asymptomatic, was 35.1% (95% CI: 30.7 to 39.9%). At the time of testing, 42.8% (95% prediction interval: 5.2 to 91.1%) of cases exhibited no symptoms, a group comprising both asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Faced with government suppression and limited resources, doctors and nurses are quietly working with research networks to report reliable data.

The Venezuelan health-care workers secretly collecting COVID stats

Manual for a course on replication and preregistration for students in the Research Master Societal Resilience and the Graduate School for Social Sciences at VU Amsterdam

Course Manual: Replication and Preregistration in the Social Sciences

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Recent work indicates that a meaningful portion of online misinformation sharing can be attributed to users merely failing to consider accuracy when deciding what to share. As a result, simply redirecting attention to the concept of accuracy can increase sharing discernment. Here we discuss the relevance of accuracy, and outline a limited-attention utility model that formalizes a theory about inattention to accuracy on social media. Research showing how a simple nudge or prompt that shifts attention to accuracy increases the quality of news that people share (typically by decreasing the sharing of false content) is reviewed. We then discuss outstanding questions relating to accuracy nudges, including the need for more work relating to persistence and habituation, as well as a dearth of cross-cultural research. We also make several recommendations for policy makers and social media companies on how to implement accuracy nudges.

Nudging social media sharing towards accuracy

YouTube’s Plan to Showcase Credible Health Information Is Flawed, Experts Warn

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The dramatic consequences of several new waves of COVID-19 infection have had a devastating effect on people's personal lives and the economic situation of the country, which has led to the formation of depressive moods in people of different ages. Behavioral activation is one of the most effective methods to reduce and prevent depression, which is discussed in detail in this article.

Therapy of depression by the method of behavioral activation

10.31234/osf.io/82pwz

The stress caused by the fourth wave of COVID-19 infection, the resulting anxiety and depression, as well as the heterogeneous attitude towards vaccination require a change in the style of possible negative thinking. Psychologists working on these problems should be well versed in one of the main techniques of cognitive-behavioral therapy - cognitive restructuring, the essence of which and related factors are presented in this article.

Cognitive restructuring

An Instagram account had called on people to get involved in the Queen Street demonstration

New Zealand police break up one-person anti-lockdown protest in Auckland

Pressure grows to begin booster jabs for the vulnerable and extend vaccinations to younger teenagers

Covid cases in England are 26 times higher than a year ago

In this three-part series, a team of researchers in Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America explores the underpinnings and consequences of a legacy that has long reflected and, many believe, hindered further progress in, the field: dominance by researchers in White, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) countries. Part 1 outlines some explanations for and problems with U.S. dominance in psychological science. Part 2 will discuss the more complex origins of these problems, including how the history and legacies of colonialism impact psychological science in the developing world. Part 3 will argue that this problem is urgent for the survival and relevance of psychology, explore potential solutions, and ask a provocative question: Does psychological science as it currently stands even deserve the attention of brilliant prospective researchers from the developing world? 

Psychological Science Needs the Entire Globe