Wagner, A. F. (2020). What the stock market tells us about the post-COVID-19 world. Nature Human Behaviour, 1–1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0869-y

Stavroglou, S. K., Pantelous, A. A., Stanley, H. E., & Zuev, K. M. (2020). Unveiling causal interactions in complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(14), 7599–7605. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918269117

Ramelli, S., & Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19 (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3550274). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550274

Wow

A Dutch water bond from 1624 still generates interest— though it's unclear if anybody collects... the owners of this one from 1648, Yale University, do OTOH

We are just in time to apply modern ML techniques to financial industry

DCF vs multiples

How to make money with Brave Browser:

1. You use money to buy Brave's Basic Attention Token (BAT) cryptocurrency, and that BAT goes into your Brave wallet.
2. Brave will keep track of how much time you spend on each website or YouTube channel.
3. Then Brave will divide up your BAT and pay websites and YouTube channels each month based on how much time you spent using them.

This means instead of making a bunch of small individual donations to the dozens of websites and YouTube channels you use each month, you can just load money into Brave. Brave will then passively distribute that money for you.

Note: article is an update to a previous report on large US Banks - https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-goldman-sachs-results/goldman-sachs-profit-beats-estimates-boosted-by-strong-equities-trading-idUKKCN1UB1B3?il=0

Heading analysis

1. clear and concise- The headline isn't misleading and clearly illustrates to the reader what the article is about
2. Catches the readers attention- Headline summarises the article concisely but does not elaborate upon what the warning signs are, encouraging the reader to read on to find out what these signs are.
3. Does not use any unfamiliar technical jargon or abbreviations

Except that there's a hesitation among tech firms to enter heavily regulated industries.

Interesting that a trader, the person who'd most likely be on the winning side of inexperienced people playing with algorithmic finance, would be hesitant to release it on the world at large.

When, not if

<big>评：</big><br/><br/> 从深恶痛绝到转身拥抱，传统金融业巨鳄涉足区块链领域的温和脚步声并不令人惊讶。相反，令人惊异的是这群新晋区块链金融从业者对此举的默契反应——像极了宫斗古装剧里的那句「本宫不死，你们终究是妃」。 <br/><br/> 显然，XRP 的死忠不愿让摩根大通来分这一杯羹，场外固然也不乏泼冷水的声音。JPM Coin 能点燃冰冷熊市的救赎火焰吗？总在这群投诚兵将开口说爱它的那一刻起，有那么多猜不完的谜和底。不如哼唱一曲《浪流连》： <br/><br/>

这个风风雨雨的社会<br/> 要如何开花<br/> 少年人如何落地<br/> 我们都是为了爱情而浪流连

<big>评：</big><br/><br/> 「比如我们当中很多人喜欢吃甜食，但由于担心发胖又不得不控制自己的食欲。什么原因造成我们爱吃甜食呢？人类在 200 多万年的进化过程中，绝大多数时间都处于营养不良和饥荒的边缘，饥饿是造成人类死亡的最大威胁。这种环境下，爱吃甜食的人往往可以获得更多热量，更容易存活，并把自己的基因传递下去。由于我们是远古时期爱吃甜食人类的后代，所以我们今天爱吃甜食的行为就不难理解了。但现代社会中物质极大丰富后，高热量食物随处可见，吃甜食这种曾经帮助人类生存的习惯却变成了一个负担，成了一种看似不理性的行为。因此很多现代社会里看起来非理性的心理和行为实际上都是深度理性的：这些心理和行为在远古时期曾经有利于我们祖先生存和繁衍后代。」 </br></br> 从进化论角度来看， 这些在远古时期理性的心理和行为可以解释现代股票市场中很多看似非理性的投资行为，此类行为偏差其实是人类长期进化的结果。 </br></br> 尽管如此，我们仍难以回答的问题是：进化到廿一世纪的现代人类，果真在进化过程中尝到甜头了吗？社会学家告诉我们「是的没错，我们站在前人的肩膀上」，但与此同时化学家们在努力地合成「代糖甜味剂」，以打消人类摄入甜食的最后顾虑。在新一波糖衣炮弹的冲击下，密码朋克们构想的理性世界可能会演化成与「廿一世纪理性的非理性金融体系」并无大异的光怪图景。

The evidence of Trump’s involvement in the payments is legally significant, as it backs up Cohen’s claim that Trump directed payments that were found to have been in violation of federal law. The most damning evidence of all, however, isn’t just regarding Trump’s involvement in the payments, but the details of discussions of a cover-up.

...

This is problematic for Trump, as campaign finance violations, such as illegal corporate contributions or donations that exceed the maximum allowable amount, require willful violation of federal law. Trump’s denials and discussion of how to keep his name out of it would help support allegations that he knew the payments were illegal.

Source: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/what-the-bombshell-report-on-stormy-daniels-karen-mcdougal-payoffs-means-for-trump-legally/

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Use in socialize-finance talk

best programming language for finance

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First diversify asset allocation, then take care of account allocation for tax.

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis, in terms of Eugene Fama.

Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Committee on Financial Services, launched a new webpage dedicated to tracking President Trump’s destructive actions against consumers, investors, and the economy.

While this may be true, it sure is sad. Especially as the emphasis on cost is likely to have negative impacts in the long run.

Announcing the Bank Whistleblowers United Initial Initiatives

Our group publicly released four documents on January 29, 2016. The first outlines our proposals, all but one of which could be implemented within 60 days by any newly-elected President (or President Obama) without any new legislation or rulemaking. Most of our proposals consist of the practical steps a President could implement to restore the rule of law to Wall Street.

In other words, it can facilitate a deferred payment system that works when the payer provides payment in escrow, like Kickstarter and other crowdfunding systems. It could manage deposits on purchase-and-sale agreements and handle escrows on legal judgments, without a third party holding title to the money. The core financial system itself could hold the money.

Could it be made into a complete deferred payment system for managing loans, mortgages, and coupon bonds? I don’t know how, since the source of those payments is outside the bitcoin system and generally doesn’t exist at the time of the loan or bond purchase. But imagine if a financial system was entirely built around a programmable trust system, then financial instruments themselves become a part of the logic of a company’s assets and liabilities. When a corporate bond coupon comes due the company treasurer doesn't create a transaction, instead the coupon payment is automatically transferred to the holder of the bond by the financial system itself. That is, the structure of the bond has been integrated directly into the financial system for automatic execution.

If a future government were to implement blockchain technology and legislate its adoption throughout the financial community (perhaps as an option, in parallel with the pre-existing system), it could 'write the code' for legally certified instruments like corporate bonds, mortgages, car loans. It could further write legally permissible derivatives of those instruments (yes, derivatives have tremendous value in reducing risk, when used wisely).

At that point, financial companies like Vanguard or Fidelity could issue mutual funds whose prospecti assert that the only kind of instruments held by the fund were those certified by the government to use the legislated systems. This could reasonably allow safe and less expensive adoption of powerful financial instruments with far less risk to the system.

Sure there are plenty of flaws and dangers in this kind of a system. But could they be worked out to create a safer, less expensive, more transparent and more accessible financial system than we currently have? Would it help engender some of the trust that has most recently been lost?

The concept of trust, in the sociological and economic sense, underlies exchange. In the 15th-17th centuries, the Dutch and English dominance of trade owed much to their early development of instruments of credit that allowed merchants to fund and later to insure commercial shipping without the exchange of hard currency, either silver or by physically transporting the currency of the realm. Credit worked because the English and Dutch economies trusted the issuers of credit.

Francis Fukuyama, a philosopher and political economist at Stanford, wrote a book in 1995, Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity, on the impact of cultures of trust on entrepreneurial growth. Countries of ‘low trust’ have close family culture who limit trust to relations: France, China, S. Italy. Countries of ‘high trust’ have greater ‘spontaneous sociability’ that encourages the formation of intermediate institutions between the state and the family, that encourage greater entrepreneurial growth: Germany, England, the U.S. – I own the book and (shame on me!) haven’t yet read it.

I thought of this article in those contexts – of the general need for trusted institutions and the power they have in mediating an economy, and the fascinating questions raised when a new facilitator of trust is introduced.

How do we trust? Across human history, how have we extended the social role of trust to institutions? If a new modality of trust comes available, how does that change institutional structures and correspondingly the power of individuals, of institutions. How would it change the friction to growth and to decline?

Prior to reading this article, I had dismissed Bitcoin as a temporary aberration, mostly for criminal enterprises and malcontents. I still feel that way. But the underlying technology and it’s implications – now that’s interesting.

From zero to millionaire

Wartość moja jako zasobu!

YES, THIS! If the Supreme Court won't let this happen on the national/federal level, try to do it at the state level!

Apparently it's considered deft to package up risky debt and then have the American and European taxpayers foot the bill when it goes south.