- Oct 2024
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ageoftransformation.org ageoftransformation.org
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for - rapid whole system change - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary adaptive cycle - Nafeez Ahmed - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 Oct 16 - to - book - The Ascent of Humanity - chapter 8 Self and Cosmos: The Gaian Birthing - stillborn and the perilous journey through the womb - Charles Eisenstein
summary - This is a good article that makes sense of the inflection point that humanity now faces as it contends with multiple existential crisis - It summarizes the complexity of our polycrisis and its precarity and lays the theory for looking at the polycrisis from a different perspective: - as a planetary phase shift towards the potential end of scarcity and the next stage of our species evolution - Through the lens of ecologist Crawford Stanley Holling's lens of the adaptive cycle of ecological population dynamics, - and especially his 2004 paper "From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds" - Nafeez extends Holling's argument that we are undergoing a planetary adaptive cycle in which the back-loop is the dying industrial era. - In this sense, it is reminiscent of the writings of Charles Eisenstein in his book "The Ascent of Humanity", chapter 8: Self and Cosmos:, The Gaian Birth. - Eisenstein uses the the perilous journey of birth through the womb door as a metaphor of the transition we are currently undergoing.
to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/KYCm2pFrEe-_PEu84xshXw/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org - book - The Ascent of Humanity - Chapter 8 - The Gaian Birthing - Charles Eisenstein - https://hyp.is/r8scTpG_Ee-gLTujlli5hQ/charleseisenstein.org/books/the-ascent-of-humanity/eng/the-gaian-birthing/
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the emergence of greater vulnerability because of the increasing number of interconnections that link that wealth, and those who control it, in efforts to sustain it
for - quote / insight - decreased resiliency due to tight network of elites - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change
quote / insight - decreased resiliency due to tight network of elites - (see quote below) - The front-loop phase is more predictable, - with higher degrees of certainty. - In both the natural and social worlds, - it maximizes production and accumulation. - We have been in that mode since World War II. - The consequence of this is not only an accumulation and concentration of wealth, - but also the emergence of greater vulnerability because of - the increasing number of interconnections that link that wealth, and - those who control it, - in efforts to sustain it. - Little time and few resources are available for alternatives that explore different visions or opportunities. - Emergence and novelty is inhibited. - This growing connectedness leads to increasing rigidity in its goal to retain control, - and the system becomes ever more tightly bound together. - This reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, - thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. - We can recognize the need for change but become politically stifled in our capacity to act effectively.
to - quote - we are now in a back-loop of a planetary adaptive cycle - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/FTRDoJFuEe-rsvdKeYjr0g/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org
comment - These ideas are quite important for those change actors working to emerge creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change
Tags
- planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed
- essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 Oct 16
- to - book - The Ascent of Humanity - chapter 8 Self and Cosmos: The Gaian Birthing - stillborn and the perilous journey through the womb - Charles Eisenstein
- creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change
- to - quote - we are now in a back-loop of a planetary adaptive cycle - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004
- planetary adaptive cycle - Crawford Stanley Holling
- quote / insight - decreased resiliency due to tight network of elites - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004
- to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004
- rapid whole system change - Nafeez Ahmed
- planetary adaptive cycle - Nafeez Ahmed
Annotators
URL
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www.ecologyandsociety.org www.ecologyandsociety.org
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The front-loop phase is more predictable, with higher degrees of certainty. In both the natural and social worlds, it maximizes production and accumulation. We have been in that mode since World War II. The consequence of this is not only an accumulation and concentration of wealth, but also the emergence of greater vulnerability because of the increasing number of interconnections that link that wealth, and those who control it, in efforts to sustain it. Little time and few resources are available for alternatives that explore different visions or opportunities. Emergence and novelty is inhibited. This growing connectedness leads to increasing rigidity in its goal to retain control, and the system becomes ever more tightly bound together. This reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. We can recognize the need for change but become politically stifled in our capacity to act effectively.
for - quote - we are in a back-loop phase - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change
comment - This is important for discussion for change actors working in liminal spaces attempting to give birth to creative alternatives
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- Apr 2023
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beiner.substack.com beiner.substack.com
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Daniel Schmachtenberger has spoken at length about the ‘generator functions’ of existential risk, in essence the deeper driving causes.
Definition - generator function of existential risk - the deeper driving cause of existential risk - two examples of deep causes - rivalrous dynamics - complicated systems consuming their complex substrate
Claim - Alexander Beiner claims that - the generator function of these generator functions is physicalism
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- Nov 2022
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library.oapen.org library.oapen.org
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Modern science is, to a large extent, a model-building activity. In the natural and engineering sciences as well as in the social sciences, models are constructed, tested and revised, they are compared with other models, applied, interpreted and sometimes rejected or replaced by a better model.
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- Jun 2022
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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- Jul 2021
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- Apr 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Chambon, Monique, Jonas Dalege, Lourens Waldorp, Han van der Maas, Denny Borsboom, and Frenk van Harreveld. ‘A Complex Systems Perspective on Compliance with Behavioral Measures during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands: How Psychological Networks Can Inform Interventions.’ PsyArXiv, 31 March 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fmu9w.
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- Oct 2020
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- Aug 2020
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- Jul 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Chambon, M., Dalege, J., Elberse, J., & van Harreveld, F. (2020). A psychological network approach to factors related to preventive behaviors during pandemics: A European COVID-19 study [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/es45v
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- Jun 2020
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Gauri, V. (2020 April 30). Behavioral Public Policy Faces a Crisis. Behavioral Scientist. https://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-public-policy-faces-a-crisis/
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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Marshall, B. D. L., & Galea, S. (2015). Formalizing the Role of Agent-Based Modeling in Causal Inference and Epidemiology. American Journal of Epidemiology, 181(2), 92–99. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwu274
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Parisi, F., Squartini, T., & Garlaschelli, D. (2020). A faster horse on a safer trail: Generalized inference for the efficient reconstruction of weighted networks. New Journal of Physics, 22(5), 053053. https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab74a7
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apolitical.co apolitical.co
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- Jun 2016
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www.jstor.org.proxyau.wrlc.org www.jstor.org.proxyau.wrlc.org
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"complex adaptive system."
"the combination of multiple strange loops"
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