538 Matching Annotations
  1. Aug 2023
    1. Under compound symmetry there is a limit to the information added by additional observations per subject, whereas for AR(1) there is no limit.

      This makes sense because under compound symetry, every measurement within a cluster is correlated in the same way with all other measurements. Therefore, adding another observation within cluster provides less information as the number of within cluster samples approaches infinity.

      However, when we have an auto regressive correlation structur, the further apart the time point, the less correlation there is between samples which means the sample tends toward zero.

    2. This induces a certain correlation structure within subject: the compound symmetric correlation structure.

      The random intercept model induces a symetric correlation structure that leads to the idea that the measurements within subject are exchange able.

      A random intercept model assumes that the correlation between any two measurements on the same subject is unrelated to the time gap between the two measurements.

  2. Jul 2023
  3. May 2023
    1. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=complexity+exonomics+textbook&crid=2SZP0E6DIIR6J&sprefix=complexity+exonomics+text%2Caps%2C630&ref=nb_sb_noss

      While I'm reading Doughnut Economics, it's interesting to contemplate the images on common economics textbooks as an indicator of how the authors/publishers think about the models of the information inside them.

      Some broad ideas represented here: - bustling people (consumers) walking over curvy 3D graph grids - greenish abstract cover (representing the green idea of money) - a compass rose (indicating finding one's direction; on a book about managerial economics and business strategy) - a globe of the world with a colorful infographic heat map - a bunch of blue and silver metal balls connected in a network-like configuration - a montage of images of numbers (credit card numbers, numbers on money, a ticker with stock prices, etc.) - a solar panel with blue sky and clouds in the background - blue sky with white fluffy clouds (indicating what, exactly?) - an ipad with an image of a busy street in the 1800s held up as if taking a photo of the same street today - puzzle pieces being put together with an image of people exchanging money at a farmer's market - abstract grid of a map outline of the Americas

  4. Apr 2023
  5. Feb 2023
    1. First, I am a big fan of Chris’ posts. He is our best historian. Second, I did not challenge his ideas but asked for clarification about some terms which I believe are of general interest. Chris is well-positioned to answer my questions. Third, statistical mechanics is more about microscopic systems that do not evolve. As we know, ideas (from concepts to theories) evolve and generally emerge from previous ideas. Emergence is the key concept here. I suggested Phenomics as a potential metaphor because it represents well the emergence of some systems (phenotypes) from pre-existing ones (genotypes).

      reply to u/New-Investigator-623 at https://www.reddit.com/r/antinet/comments/10r6uwp/comment/j6wy4mf/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

      Ideas, concepts, propositions, et al. in this context are just the nebulous dictionary definitions. Their roots and modern usage have so much baggage now that attempting to separate them into more technical meanings is difficult unless you've got a solid reason to do so. I certainly don't here. If you want to go down some of the rabbit hole on the differences, you might appreciate Winston Perez' work on concept modeling which he outlines with respect to innovation and creativity here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGQ-dW7yfPc.

      I debated on a more basic framing of chemistry or microbiology versus statistical mechanics or even the closely related statistical thermodynamics, but for the analogy here, I think it works even if it may scare some off as "too hard". With about 20 linear feet of books in my library dedicated to biology, physics, math, engineering with a lot of direct focus on evolutionary theory, complexity theory, and information theory I would suggest that the underlying physics of statistical mechanics and related thermodynamics is precisely what allows the conditions for systems to evolve and emerge, for this is exactly what biological (and other) systems have done. For those intrigued, perhaps Stuart Kauffman's Origins of Order (if you're technically minded) or At Home in the Universe (if you're less technically oriented) are interesting with respect to complexity and emergence. There's also an interesting similar analogy to be made between a zettelkasten system and the systems described in Peter Hoffman's book Life's Rachet. I think that if carefully circumscribed, one could define a zettelkasten to be "alive". That's a bigger thesis for another time. I was also trying to stay away from the broad idea of "atomic" and drawing attention to "atomic notes" as a concept. I'm still waiting for some bright physicist to talk about sub-atomic notes and what that might mean... I see where you're going with phenomics, but chemistry and statistical mechanics were already further afield than the intended audience who already have issues with "The Two Cultures". Getting into phenomics was just a bridge too far... not to mention, vastly more difficult to attempt to draw(!!!). 😉 Besides, I didn't want Carol Greider dropping into my DMs asking me why didn't I include telomeres or chancing an uncomfortable LAX-BWI flight and a train/cab ride into Baltimore with Peter Agre who's popped up next to me on more than one occasion.

      Honestly, I was much less satisfied with the nebulousness of "solution of life"... fortunately no one seems to be complaining about that or their inability to grapple with catalysis. 🤷🏼

  6. Jan 2023
    1. https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/162-foundations-applications-of-humanities-analytics/segments/15630


      Seven Principles of Data Feminism

      • Examine power
      • Challenge power
      • Rethink binaries and hierarchies
      • Elevate emotion an embodiment
      • Embrace pluralism
      • Consider context
      • Make labor visible

      Abolitionist movement

      There are some interesting analogies to be drawn between the abolitionist movement in the 1800s and modern day movements like abolition of police and racial justice, etc.

      Topic modeling - What would topic modeling look like for corpuses of commonplace books? Over time?

      wrt article: Soni, Sandeep, Lauren F. Klein, and Jacob Eisenstein. “Abolitionist Networks: Modeling Language Change in Nineteenth-Century Activist Newspapers.” Journal of Cultural Analytics 6, no. 1 (January 18, 2021). https://doi.org/10.22148/001c.18841. - Brings to mind the difference in power and invisible labor between literate societies and oral societies. It's easier to erase oral cultures with the overwhelm available to literate cultures because the former are harder to see.

      How to find unbiased datasets to study these?

      aspirational abolitionism driven by African Americans in the 1800s over and above (basic) abolitionism

  7. Nov 2022
    1. with Prisma you never create application models in your programming language by manually defining classes, interfaces, or structs. Instead, the application models are defined in your Prisma schema
  8. Sep 2022
    1. Live-Roaming: Using Roam to teach students in college

      I'd listened to this whole episode sometime since 2022-04-05, but didn't put it in my notes.

      Mark Robertson delineates how he actively models the use of his note taking practice (using Roam Research) while teaching/lecturing in the classroom. This sort of modeling can be useful for showing students how academics read, gather, and actively use their knowledge. It does miss the portion about using the knowledge to create papers, articles, books, etc., but the use of this mode of reading and notes within a discussion setting isn't terribly different.

      Use of the system for conversation/discussion with the authors of various texts as you read, with your (past) self as you consult your own notes, or your students in classroom lectures/discussion sections is close to creating your own discussion for new audiences (by way of the work your write yourself.)


  9. Aug 2022
    1. If you’re VC funded, then you “need” to spend the money you raised in 18–24 months, and grow 3–5X in that time, which means a base rate of 10+% MoM
    1. Successful SaaS startups grow their MRR at a rate between 10% and 25% monthly growth rate (MoM). You can use these benchmarks as sanity checks for your model but don’t use these numbers to project your growth
  10. Apr 2022
    1. Seeing examples of outstanding work motivates students by givingthem a vision of the possible. How can we expect students to produce first-ratework, he asks, when they have no idea what first-rate work looks like?

      Showing students examples of work and processes that they can imitate will fuel their imaginations and capabilities rather than stifle them.

    2. crucial difference between traditional apprenticeships and modern schooling: inthe former, “learners can see the processes of work,” while in the latter, “theprocesses of thinking are often invisible to both the students and the teacher.”Collins and his coauthors identified four features of apprenticeship that could beadapted to the demands of knowledge work: modeling, or demonstrating the taskwhile explaining it aloud; scaffolding, or structuring an opportunity for thelearner to try the task herself; fading, or gradually withdrawing guidance as thelearner becomes more proficient; and coaching, or helping the learner throughdifficulties along the way.

      This is what’s known as a cognitive apprenticeship, a term coined by Allan Collins, now a professor emeritus of education at Northwestern University. In a 1991 article written with John Seely Brown and Ann Holum, Collins noted a

      In a traditional apprenticeship, a learner watches and is able to imitate the master process and work. In a cognitive apprenticeship the process of thinking is generally invisible to both the apprentice and the teacher. The problem becomes how to make the thinking processes more tangible and visible to the learner.

      Allan Collins, John Seely Brown, and Ann Holum identified four pedagogical methods in apprenticeships that can also be applied to cognitive apprenticeships: - modeling: demonstrating a task while focusing on describing and explaining the steps and general thinking about the problem out loud - scaffolding: structuring a task to encourage and allow the learner the ability to try it themself - fading: as the learner gains facility and confidence in the process, gradually removing the teacher's guidance - coaching: as necessary, the teacher provides tips and suggestions to the learner to prompt them through potential difficulties

    1. Bob Wachter. (2022, January 3). WAY too soon to be sure (especially w/ potential spread over holidays), but we are seeing a plateau @UCSFHospitals in hospitalizations (Fig L) & test positivity (both symptomatic & asymptomatic; R). Next few days will be key. Until we see sharp downturn, I’m in uber-careful mode. Https://t.co/BWIpTQI4gM [Tweet]. @Bob_Wachter. https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1477804044756213762

  11. Mar 2022
    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2022, February 20). RT @Gemma_clark14: Great video of @dgurdasani1 discussing the Covid stats and the effect on children #LongCovidKids https://t.co/T8t4G3Rfpw [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1495705778044510214

    1. Shelly Miller, PhD. (2020, December 8). And here is an example calculation showing the difference in indoor virus concentrations with 3 vs. 6 ACH room ventilation when a person shedding the virus hangs out for an hour in that space https://t.co/p7M3boIh2w [Tweet]. @ShellyMBoulder. https://twitter.com/ShellyMBoulder/status/1336410448342736899

  12. Feb 2022
    1. Adam Kucharski. (2022, January 18). Below analysis was two years ago (https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-51148303). As well as providing an early warning about the COVID threat, it’s a good illustration of what is often an under-appreciated point: If we want to make sense of epidemic data and dynamics in real-time, we need models… 1/ https://t.co/ZdpzOq3Bzp [Tweet]. @AdamJKucharski. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1483368504392880128

  13. Jan 2022
    1. Zimmerman, M. I., Porter, J. R., Ward, M. D., Singh, S., Vithani, N., Meller, A., Mallimadugula, U. L., Kuhn, C. E., Borowsky, J. H., Wiewiora, R. P., Hurley, M. F. D., Harbison, A. M., Fogarty, C. A., Coffland, J. E., Fadda, E., Voelz, V. A., Chodera, J. D., & Bowman, G. R. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 simulations go exascale to predict dramatic spike opening and cryptic pockets across the proteome. Nature Chemistry, 13(7), 651–659. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41557-021-00707-0

    1. Budak, C., Soroka, S., Singh, L., Bailey, M., Bode, L., Chawla, N., Davis-Kean, P., Choudhury, M. D., Veaux, R. D., Hahn, U., Jensen, B., Ladd, J., Mneimneh, Z., Pasek, J., Raghunathan, T., Ryan, R., Smith, N. A., Stohr, K., & Traugott, M. (2021). Modeling Considerations for Quantitative Social Science Research Using Social Media Data. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3e2ux

    1. Prof. Debby Bogaert 💙. (2021, December 20). @chrischirp NL is slightly behind the UK re #omicron and based lockdown on a.o. This model (source @MarionKoopmans). Despite uncertainty the ‘continue as is’ effect on ICU beds occupied (red) is chilling. Green model is with lockdown after and blue is before Christmas. Decisiveness matters! Https://t.co/2IODZGnNJ6 [Tweet]. @DebbyBogaert. https://twitter.com/DebbyBogaert/status/1472845880411758592

    1. Helen Branswell. (2022, January 11). 1. #Omicron’s takeover was stunningly rapid and is now nearly complete, at least in the U.S. The latest “Nowcast” from @CDCgov (which uses recent data to model what’s happen now) suggests most of what is circulating here now is omicron. Https://t.co/6w3e8Ut5NW [Tweet]. @HelenBranswell. https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1480970453313277954

    1. Frenzel, S. B., Junker, N. M., Avanzi, L., Bolatov, A., Haslam, S. A., Häusser, J. A., Kark, R., Meyer, I., Mojzisch, A., Monzani, L., Reicher, S., Samekin, A., Schury, V. A., Steffens, N. K., Sultanova, L., Van Dijk, D., van Zyl, L. E., & Van Dick, R. (2022). A trouble shared is a trouble halved: The role of family identification and identification with humankind in well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. British Journal of Social Psychology, 61(1), 55–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12470

    1. Keeling, M. J., Brooks-Pollock, E., Challen, R. J., Danon, L., Dyson, L., Gog, J. R., Guzman-Rincon, L., Hill, E. M., Pellis, L. M., Read, J. M., & Tildesley, M. (2021). Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England. (p. 2021.12.30.21268307). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307

  14. Dec 2021
    1. Hobbes and Rousseau told their contemporaries things that werestartling, profound and opened new doors of the imagination. Nowtheir ideas are just tired common sense. There’s nothing in them thatjustifies the continued simplification of human affairs. If socialscientists today continue to reduce past generations to simplistic,two-dimensional caricatures, it is not so much to show us anythingoriginal, but just because they feel that’s what social scientists areexpected to do so as to appear ‘scientific’. The actual result is toimpoverish history – and as a consequence, to impoverish our senseof possibility.

      The simplification required to make models and study systems can be a useful tool, but one constantly needs to go back to the actual system to make sure that future predictions and work actually fit the real world system.

      Too often social theorists make assumptions which aren't supported in real life and this can be a painfully dangerous practice, especially when those assumptions are built upon in ways that put those theories out on a proverbial creaking limb.

      This idea is related to the bias that Charles Mathewes points out about how we treat writers as still living or as if they never lived. see: https://hypothes.is/a/VTU2lFvZEeyiJ2tN76i4sA

    2. Now, we should be clear here: social theory always, necessarily,involves a bit of simplification. For instance, almost any humanaction might be said to have a political aspect, an economic aspect,a psychosexual aspect and so forth. Social theory is largely a gameof make-believe in which we pretend, just for the sake of argument,that there’s just one thing going on: essentially, we reduce everythingto a cartoon so as to be able to detect patterns that would beotherwise invisible. As a result, all real progress in social science hasbeen rooted in the courage to say things that are, in the finalanalysis, slightly ridiculous: the work of Karl Marx, Sigmund Freud orClaude Lévi-Strauss being only particularly salient cases in point.One must simplify the world to discover something new about it. Theproblem comes when, long after the discovery has been made,people continue to simplify.

      revisit this... it's an important point, particularly when looking at complex ideas with potentially emergent properties

    1. Art Poon. (2021, November 28). Our first https://filogeneti.ca/CoVizu update with B.1.1.529. As expected, number of mutations is well over molecular clock prediction (~13 diffs). Relatively low numbers of identical genomes implies large number of unsampled infections. We update every two days from GISAID. https://t.co/m8w2CjL1c0 [Tweet]. @art_poon. https://twitter.com/art_poon/status/1465001066194481162

  15. Nov 2021
    1. Jeffrey Barrett. (2021, October 19). Proportion of AY.4.2 (now on http://covid19.sanger.ac.uk) has been steadily increasing in England, which is a pattern that is quite different from other AY lineages. Several of them rose when there was still Alpha to displace, but none has had a consistent advantage vs other Delta. Https://t.co/mD5gQzKxgV [Tweet]. @jcbarret. https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1450408485829718039

    1. Prof. Christina Pagel. (2021, November 3). Good @NatGeo article by @Ecquis on the growing AY.4.2 variant in the UK with lots of great experts explaining it. And a little bit of me too! At its current growth rate, it will probably become dominant in UK by the end of the year. Https://t.co/X9O9kbew2L [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1455899379475361795

    1. I watched Christian from Zettelkasten.de taking notes from a book. He’s a professional note-taker, and it still took him two hours to take four notes in the first video - it does take forever to make good permanent notes.

      An example of someone taking notes in public to model the process. Also an example of the time it takes to make notes.

      Has Dan Allosso (@danallosso) done something along these lines as an example on his YouTube channel?

    1. was common among early modern authorsW and the notion of the merXchant as a model to imitate persisted through changes to new techniquesY

      References to the merchant’s two notebooks as a model for student note taking was common among early modern authors, and the notion of the merchant as a model to imitate persisted through changes to new techniques.

  16. Oct 2021
  17. Sep 2021