文章提醒了一个常被忽视的约束条件：AI的使用成本。在讨论AI替代人类时，人们往往默认AI是低成本方案，但推理模型和智能体的高昂算力成本意味着，仅凭能力覆盖并不等于经济上的可行替代，成本收益分析仍是决定性门槛。

经济学家呼吁以“曼哈顿计划”的规模来收集各行业价格弹性数据，凸显了当前AI经济研究的底层基础设施极度匮乏。没有跨经济体的系统性微观数据支撑，任何关于AI就业前景的预测都是盲人摸象，政策制定更是无从谈起。

这一观点极具洞察力，打破了目前AI替代风险研究中仅凭“任务暴露度”来判断失业的简单线性逻辑。暴露于AI并不意味着工作必然消失，关键在于生产率提升后需求端的反馈，这才是决定劳动力去留的深层经济逻辑。

大多数人认为AI提高生产力必然带来就业增长，但作者提出了一个反直觉的问题：当工人效率提高，雇主可能会选择减少而非增加员工。这种质疑挑战了'技术进步-就业增长'的线性因果关系假设。

大多数人认为应对AI就业影响应该专注于当前受威胁最大的行业，但作者认为我们需要像曼哈顿计划一样全面收集所有行业的价格弹性数据，包括目前尚未受到AI影响的领域。这种前瞻性视角挑战了危机应对的常规思维。

大多数人认为通过分析工作任务的AI暴露程度可以预测哪些工作会被取代，但作者认为这种单一指标完全无意义，因为它忽略了价格弹性和需求变化等关键因素。这挑战了当前AI就业影响研究的主流方法。

用「杰文斯悖论」解释推理时间扩展（inference scaling）——这是一个绝妙的框架选择。效率提升→整体消耗增加，这正是 o1/R1 类推理模型出现后发生的事：单次推理更贵，但人们愿意为更难的问题付出更多算力。Sakana 用一个 19 世纪的经济学悖论，为 2026 年的 AI 产品战略提供了令人信服的理论背景——在技术营销中，历史类比是建立认知可信度的最有效工具之一。

数百到数千次 LLM 调用完成一次研究任务——这个规模令人震惊。一个用户提交一个研究主题，背后触发的是数千次 AI 推理调用，形成一棵庞大的假设探索树。从成本角度看，如果每次 LLM 调用均价 0.1 美元，1000 次调用就是 100 美元的计算成本。「数周人力工作」的价值与「100 美元计算成本」之间的鸿沟，正是 AI 替代知识工作的核心经济逻辑所在。

大多数人认为AI是工具，会逐渐改变经济。但作者暗示OpenAI的Spud模型可能具有如此颠覆性的能力，能够实质性地加速整个经济发展，这远超出了大多数人对AI当前能力的认知，暗示AI可能比预期更快地成为经济增长的主要驱动力。

The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC)<br /> https://oec.world/en

1 used as a means to reward validators who propose blocks, or call out dishonest behaviour by other validators. 2. staked by validators, acting as collateral agains dishonest behaviour. 3. it is used to weigh 'votes' for newly proposed blcoks. (fork-choice)

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - 2 political allies - Thatcher (1979) and Reagan (1980) came to power - cast taxes, social programs and regulation as the bogeyman

• SRG comment - Reagan and Thatcher policies - advocating for inequality - against the sacred

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - David Harvey - accumulation by dispossession. Defaulted countries signing with IMF: - increased poverty - exploded inequality - collapsed public service - gave up economic sovereignty to global financial institutions - continuation of colonialist practice of extractionism and appropriation

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - IMF Structural adjustment program - privatize public assets, - cut spending of welfare, - austerity across the board - deregulation, - open domestic markets to foreign corporations, - remove protection of local businesses and workers - IMF - a deal with the devil

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - defaulted countries turn to IMF

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - second casualties - Sub-Saharan African & Asian countries defaulted

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - first casualties - Latin American debt crisis - Mexico, Brazil, Argentina defaulted on loans

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - developing countries loans became unpayable overnight

for - economic history - 1979 - Paul. A. Volcker appointed chairman of Federal Reserve - Volcker Shock - shift - from employment to inflation - raised interest rates to an astounding 20%, intentionally causing a recession

for - economic history - Volcker Shock - used Milton Friedman's theory to provide cover to stop Keynesian commitment to full employment and instead protect capital from inflation. - Volcker raised interest rates to 20%,, causing massive plant shutdowns and unemployment to surge above 10%. - The recession closed shops, and labor lost its bargaining power when plants are shut down.

for - economic history - Milton Friedman - represented business elites - Monetarism - inflation seen as ultimate threat to elites

for - economic history - 1972 - Business Round Table established

for stats - economic history - corporate power - 10 years - American Chamber of Commerce - from 60,000 to 250,000 members

for - economic history - powell memo - Lewis Powell - inequality - corporate lawyer who became supreme court judge - memo that started a long term political campaign to exploit the elite crisis for corporations to take control of universities, media, law and public opinion FOR THE ELITES

for - economic superorganism - human species qualifies

for - definition - economic superorganism - The cohesive whole brought about by agriculture and the architecture that underlies it. Not to be interpreted as biological. - Used more in the sense of Henrich (economic superorganism) which refers to the structure and dynamic in cooperative material life particular to agriculture - NOT used in the strictly biological sense of E.O. Wilson, Holldobler

for - insight - polycrisis - agricultural system - agriculture-based economic system - difficult to halt

for - economic superorganism

SRC comment - This paper is so eloquently written! Reading it, one really senses the enormous impact that agriculture has had on the cultural evolution of our species, so much so that we think of it as natural and absolute, rather than relative. - We did not have to be on the cultural trajectory we are now on, all made possible through the dependency on agriculture, the culture of plants.

for - economic system vs cultural change - hubris - The global economic system at play is bringing about - the sixth mass extinction and - unmitigated climate change - and we continue to tinker around the edges of altering its structure and dynamic in any significant way. - One could easily make the claim that - it is the global economic system that has the upper hand - and not our capacity for cultural change.

for - infinite economic growth - more more more - climate crisis - infinite growth of capitalism problem - antidote - targeted degrowth

for - growth economy - important economic decisions - people have no say

for - economic paradigm - beyond growth Julia Steinberger - beyond economic growth

for - example - wicked problem graph visualization - World Economic Forum

for - climate crisis - questioning socio-economic system - capitalism

This phrase as well as "delicate carpet so richly spread"(line 12) "glittering diadems crown'd" (line 14), and "ermine mantle" (line 30) invoke an image of natural riches that are available to everyone in the area instead of those who are very wealthy. While the speaker does not explicitely state it, the snow allows individuals who, otherwise, would not have access to material riches to have them in the snow.

Need monitoring and protections for these area

Would significantly threaten bivalve populations

Comb jelly will have even more of an impact

The comb jelly is expanding, thus threatening more of the economy

They used iNaturalist!

Collection methods for study

Potential for major economic imapct

More than one introduction

Established along French coast

Also will threaten Spain

Could harm clam production and the food chain entirely

Overview of comb jelly spread

government as regulation of social trading/economies?

Hayek, F. A. The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents, The Definitive Edition. Edited by Bruce Caldwell. 1944. Reprint, University of Chicago Press, 2010.

for - example - words - opposites - economic growth

for - report - Action Aid - climate justice - stats - 70% of economic growth of global North - unequal carbon budget

for - adjacency - economic slowdown - renewable energy - supply chain shortages

for - adjacency - economic slowdown - COVID - less investment in renewables

for -adjacency - economic slowdown - carbon emissions - Trump tariffs

Unterteilinger einer der Spitzenmanager der Alleranz stellt fest, dass Versicherungen die Kosten der Schäden bei einer Temperatursteigerung um drei Grad nicht mehr bewältigen können. Bei einer Erhitzung der Erde in diesem Ausmaß wäre das gesamte Finanzsystem und ich damit der Kapitalismus zusammenbrechen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/03/climate-crisis-on-track-to-destroy-capitalism-warns-allianz-insurer

Ausführlicher, gut recherchierter und belegter Artikel, der den aktuellen amerikanischen Anspruch auf Grönland in den Zusammenhang des sogenannten Arctic Opening und der extaktivistischen Ausbeutung der Gebiete um die Arktis stellt. Die Schlussfolgerung ist, dass Wirtschaftswachstum, auch Grünes Wachstum, die Souveränität der Inuit und der Sami bedroht. https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2025/03/14/degrowth-is-key-to-respecting-indigenous-rights-in-the-arctic/

for - dominant economic system - not value neutral - situated on history of colonialism, slavery, genocide, extractionism

Nach den Erfahrungen mit den Angriffen der ersten Trump-Administration auf die Wissenschaft haben Wissenschaftler:innen in den USA verschiedene Maßnahmen zum Schutz wissenschaftlicher Institutionen ergriffen. Die New York TImes berichtet ausführlich über diese scientific integrity policies, die wissenschaftliche Arbeit öffentlich beobachtbar machen, aber politische Einflussnahme ausschließen sollen. Die Biden- und schon die Obama-Administration haben scientific integrity policies gefördert. Zu den Maßnahmen gehören die Benennung von Verantwortlichen für wissenschaftliche Integrität in Behörden und Kollektivverträge, die die Disziplinierung von Forschenden erschweren.

Zum „War on Science“ schon der ersten Trump-Regierung gehörte außer Entlassungen von Wissenschaftler:innen auch die Anordnung der Verfälschung von Forschungsergebnissen. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/climate/trump-government-scientists.html

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/20/europe-greenwashing-with-north-africas-renewable-energy-report-says

Greenpeace-Bericht: https://www.greenpeace.org/mena/en/beyond-extractivism-towards-a-feminist-and-just-economic-transition-in-morocco-and-egypt/

for - Trump economic crash - hedge funds shorting

-Any data on rent increases, housing supply, or demand -Population growth, Low housing supply, Inflation - Supply and demand, elasticity, market failure - Mention rent control or affordable housing policies -Stakeholders

4.3 Geopolitics- study of the effects of geography on politics and relations among states.<br /> Territoriality - a willingness by a person or group of people to defend space they claim. A people's connection to a particular piece of land.

Neocolonialism- Process which powerful countries attempt to control weaker countries because of economic or cultural pressures. Control was indirectly exerted over developing countries. Ex. Transnational corporations based in European countries continued to control the extractions of natural resources through mining and the export of natural resources

for - from - Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20 - annotation - reply to - Me2We2All -Local economic permaculture? - Research question - third search - https://hyp.is/UrdJmMHKEe-nGLd7p-JTcA/4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com/p/the-cosmo-local-plan-for-our-next

for - search result returned - hypothes.is annotation of - Substack article: The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Stop Reset Go reply to annotation - Me2We2All - Local Economic Permacultures? - Search - Google - how many silo'd social groups exist on the web on a specific topic? - https://hyp.is/UrdJmMHKEe-nGLd7p-JTcA/4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com/p/the-cosmo-local-plan-for-our-next

for - climate crisis - impact of Trump tariff strategy - increasing economic and carbon inequality and precarity for the masses - from - Youtube - Trump wants to crash to benefit the ultra wealthy - Trump's planning to crash the global economy - Richard J Murphy - 2024, Dec

// - SUMMARY - Richard J Murphy provides us with a big picture of Trump's objective in his calculated Tariff strategy - It's not that it makes no sense and is a strategy of a madman - On the contrary, he has a very calculated and maniacal strategy that will result in significantly increasing the wealth of the elites - By creating high tariffs, he will bring about a global economic crash - Like the 2008 and 2020 crash, central banks will print trillions of dollars of money and handout bailouts - It is the elites who will receive these bailouts and inflate the value of their assets - This will - substantially increase the wealth of the rich - substantially increase the precarity of the vast majority of people - increase global inequality - financial inequality and - carbon inequality - This increased precarity is bad news for the climate crisis as a precarious population have less flexibility in reducing their carbon footprint and are more dependent than ever on whatever remain job and resources they still have - Given we have this knowledge of the elite's hidden strategy, can we the people intervene in any way? - We need to have an understanding of how elites see the world - The entire worldview of externalizing investment as a game of accumulation must be understood deeply - in order to find leverage points for rapid system change

//

for - quote - economic crashes are profitable for the elites - Trump plans to crash the global economy so that subsequent Quantitative Easing bailouts will inflate value of assets of the rich - from - Youtube - Trump wants to crash to benefit the ultra wealthy - Trump's planning to crash the global economy - Richard J Murphy - 2024, Dec

quote - economic crashes are good for the elites - Trump plans to crash the global economy so that subsequent Quantitative Easing bailouts will inflate value of assets of the rich - Trump expect if he creates another world financial crisis - he believes there will be a bailout and - he believes that he and his cohort the world's wealthy will benefit from there being vastly more money in circulation with very little to use it on except the inflation in the value of the assets that they own - That is what he's banking on - This is literally I think his Economic Policy - This is what he expects as a consequence of his trade Wars - He doesn't care that we suffer - He won't care about the countries in the developing world - the vast majority of countries in the world in fact who have their debts denominated in dollars who will suffer enormously as a result of their struggle to find the means to repay those debts - As for the time being, the dollar is inflated in value and interest rates are too high he won't care that people are thrown out of work - All he cares about is the inflation in asset values and that is what the whole of the world economy is now geared to create - for the benefit of a few - at cost to the vast majority - Trump's Economic Policy makes sense if you see it in this way - He runs a bailout economic strategy that is going to work for him and his friends because - it will result when the world economy crashes and yet more money being made available through the central banking system to inflate the value of the assets that they own - And they'll say thank you very much we did very nicely out of that when can we have another crash?

for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - integrated assessment models - are basically economic models - with a bit of mythical technology - a bit of social science - Kevin Anderson

for - adjacency - Trump government - Current political-economic order - possibility of crumbling and self imploding - due to populous controlled government holllowing itself out - Michel Bauwens

for - economic power shift - from feudalism to capitalism - land owner to factory owner - Yanis Varoufakis

for - economic power shift - from capitalism to globalization - factory owners to bankers - Yanis Varoufakis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_poverty

for - definition - physiocrats - Steve Keen - economy - history - economic flow as biomimicry of body's circulation system

definition - physiocrat - During the 18th and 19th century, a group of mostly French "economists" led by Francois Quesnay, physician to the King of France at the time, performed some of the first autopsies of the time. - Autopsies were banned for the longest time for religious reasons - When Quesnay performed autopsies, he discovered networks of tubes in the circulation system and this led him to surmise a network of circulation in another field, economics - Quesnay advised the king, hence the name physiocrat - So modern economics has its roots in biology - it was a case of biomimicry!

in reply to Cesar A. Hidalgo at https://x.com/realAnthonyDean/status/1844409919161684366

via Anthony Dean @realAnthonyDean

18:59 Warren Mosler 19:49 Government does not need dollars, citizens need dollars 20:18 Warren is not an economist - he is not trying to defend economic theory - he is a financial trader watching the operation of money

for - stats - global annual economic cost of insect pollinators - 235 to 577 billion USD - OECD 2019

for - question - economic impact of loss of Amazon Rainforest

question - economic impact of loss of Amazon Rainforest - If the Amazon rainforest breaches its tipping point, it seems this study does not consider the impacts of such a large scale impact?

for - planetary emergency - economic cost of nature - from an insurance perspective - natural capital valuation - from insurance industry perspective - biodiversity - natural capital valuation - from insurance industry perspective - Swiss RE - Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) metric - from insurance industry perspective

for - World economic forum - integration planetary boundaries into their strategy

Concern - unintended consequence - The WEF is perceived by many to be an elitist organisation - who do not have the best interest off the people in mind - This could lead to potential reputational damage to the planetary boundary framework thru their association with it

for - economic growth - physical limits to - reductio ad absurdum - physical absurdity of continuing current energy and waste heat trends into the near future

paper details - title - Limits to Economic Growth - author - Thomas W. Murphy Jr. - date - 21 July, 2022 - publication - Nature Physics, comment, online - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6

summary - Physicist Thomas W. Murphy employs reductio ab adsurdium logic to prove the fallacy of the assumptions of his argument - In this case, the argument is that we can indefinitely continue to sustain economic growth at rates that have held steady at about 2-3% per annum since the early 1900s. - Using both idealistic and simplified energy and waste heat calculations of energy and waste heat compounding at 2-3% per annum (or 10x per century), Murphy shows the absurd conclusions of continuing these current trends of energy and waste heat emissions on a global scale. - The implications are that physics and thermodynamics will naturally constrain us to plateau to a steady state economy in which the majority of economic activity needs to not depend on physically intensive

from - Planet Critical podcast - 6th Mass Extinction - interview with science journalist Peter Brannen - https://hyp.is/66oSJD-AEe-rN08IjlMu5A/docdrop.org/video/cP8FXbPrEiI/

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projection example of recent energy trends

-absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projections - Energy growth has typically been 2–3% per year since early 1900's. - This is approximately equivalent to 10x each century - Present-day energy output is 18 TW and extrapolates to - - approx.100 TW in 2100, - approx. 1,000 TW in 2200, etc. - In 400 years, from today, we would exceed the total solar power incident on Earth - In 1300 years from today, we would exceed the entire output of the Sun in all directions - In 2400 years from today, we would exceed the energy output of all 100 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy - This last jump is made impossible by the fact that even light cannot cross the galaxy in fewer than 100,000 years. - Hence, physics puts a hard limit on how long our energy growth enterprise could possibly continue

for - decoupling - economic growth from - physical resources

for - quote - economic growth - pioneering economists saw growth not as permanent, but as just a temporary phase

quote - economic growth - pioneering economists saw growth not as permanent, but as just a temporary phase - (see below) - Given that - assumptions of quantitative growth are pervasive in our society and - have been present for many generations, - it is perhaps not surprising that growth is not widely understood to be a transient phenomenon. - Early thinkers on the physical economy, such as - Adam Smith, <br /> - Thomas Malthus, - David Ricardo and - John Stuart Mill - saw the growth phase as just that: a phase

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends

absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends - At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. - But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. - Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription.

for - limits to economic growth - physics calculations - by Tom Murphy show absurdity of continual growth - energy and waste heat perspective

to - Nature Physics - LImits to Economic Growth - Tom Murphy - https://hyp.is/CM3Grj9_Ee-obTc6jrPBRA/tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pdf

for - adjacency - Neoliberalism - rise of the Far-Right - paper summary

paper summary - title: Backfire: How the Rise of Neoliberalism Facilitated the Rise of the Far-Right - author: Jacob Fuller - date: April 2023 - publication: The Compass: Vol.1: Iss. 10, Article 3 - download link: https://scholarworks.arcadia.edu/thecompass/vol1/iss10/3

summary - A good paper that examines the root causes of the ascendency of the far-right in U.S. politics, based on harmonizing two theories - emergence of neo-liberalism - racialized economic anxieties

• NAFTA is complex and is often oversimplified
• See this article that discusses its complexities

to - How Did NAFTA Affect the Economies of Participating Countries? - https://hyp.is/0j7PsjyUEe-LGOsFIWCyWA/www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp

for - progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries

progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries - The podcaster does not consider the ramifications of the potential disastrous impact of such economic growth if not managed properly

for - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - Russia's unsustainable attrition rate

to - economic game analysis of Russia Ukraine War - https://hyp.is/avvydB5QEe-aheM72r6J4Q/docdrop.org/video/A-9kLZ19OAE/

for - adjacency - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine war - oil and gas industry destruction leading to economic collapse

adjacency - between - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - Oil & Gas industry - Economic collapse - drone attacks on oil refineries - adjacency relationship - Konstantin' insider news is that the economic collapse is beginning due to the significant damage that the oil & gas refinery infrastructure has been damaged by effective Ukrainian drone attacks and the Western sanctions

for - adjacency - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - How Ukraine wins - Russian economic collapse

adjacency - between - geopolitics - Russia - Ukraine War - polycrisis - How Ukraine wins - Russian economic collapse - adjacency statement - Since Putin is psychopathic and has no regards for how many Russian soldiers are sent to their death, he will continue to force Russian men to their death in large numbers - Russian commentator Konstantin Samoilov best summarizes it by saying: - https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2FA-9kLZ19OAE%2F&group=world

for - Russia Ukraine war - Russia's unsustainable attrition rate - economic game analysis

reference - economic game analysis video of unsustainable Russian war attrition rate - https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2FA-9kLZ19OAE%2F&group=world

Das globale Durchschnittseinkommen wird bei der jetzt zu erwartenden globalen Erhitzung 2050 fast um ein Fünttel niedriger sein als ohne Erhitzung. Die (nicht mehr zu vermeidenden) Einbußen durch die Erhitzung bis 2050 sind sechsmal so hoch wie die einer Begrenzung des Temperaturanstiegs auf 2°. 2050 ist einer neuen Studie zufolge mit Klimaschäden von etwa 38 Bllionen Dollar zu rechnen. Bis 2100 wird es in einem Business-as-usual-Szenario zu Einkommensverlusten von mehr als 60% kommen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/17/climate-crisis-average-world-incomes-to-drop-by-nearly-a-fifth-by-2050

Matt Stoller denies racism is why Democrats lost the South.

Amy Westervelt und Kyle Pope fassen kurz und treffend die wichtigsten Desinformationstaktiken der Fossilindustrie zusammen: - Fossilindustrie als Garantin der Energiesicherheit - Gegensatz von Wirtschaft und Umwelt - Verbraucher:innen brauchen fossile Energien für ihren Lebensstandard - Fossilindustrien sind Teil der Lösung, nicht des Problems - Fossilindustrien als Wohltäterinnen und Sponsorinnen.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/14/climate-disinformation-explainer

for - liberalism - economic growth - adjacency - liberalism - economic growth

Adjacency - between - growth - liberalism - adjacency statement - Since researching the work of Christopher Shaw, and especially his book - Liberalism and the Challenge of Climate Change - I can see the adjacency between liberalism and economic growth - Laws are a cap on one type of behavioral liberty, and yet, there is no cap on consumptive liberty, which is what is causing us to collectively exceed natural limits

Die Biden-Administration hat die Genehmigung des LNG-Terminals Calcasieu Pass 2 gestoppt, um die Klimawirkung des Projekts zu prüfen. Die Entscheidung gilt als Sieg von Klima-Aktivist:innen. Sie ist ein Signal im Wahlkampf und kann Folgen für 16 ähnliche geplante Projekte haben. Ihr war eine intensive Kampagne vorausgegangen. Auch ohne CO2 werden sich die LNG-Exportkapazitäten der USA in den nächsten Jahren nahezu vervierfachen. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/25/climate/a-huge-win-for-activists-puts-climate-on-the-2024-agenda.html

Eine der wichtigsten wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Konferenzen der USA, die Allied Social Science Association conference der American Economic Association, war von Themen beherrscht, die mit der globalen Erhitzung zusammenhängen. In dem Bericht der New York Times wird das als Signal für einen Umschwung in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft interpretiert und unter anderem mit den Rekordtemperaturen des vergangenen Jahres in Verbindung gebracht. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/business/economy/climate-change-economics.html

Zwei der Reports, die zum Weltwirtschaftsforum 2024 publiziert wurden, betonen die Bedeutung von Risiken, die mit der globalen Erhitzung, der Zerstörung der Biodiversität und der lebenserhaltenden Systeme des Planeten verbunden sind. Der Artikel der Repubblica zählt klimapolitisch wichtige Ereignisse des Jahres 2024 auf.https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/17/news/world_economic_forum_2024_cambiamento_climatico-421899576/

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Transformation-Political-Economic-Origins/dp/080705643X

Polanyi, Karl. The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time. 2nd ed. Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001.

自由职业市场 Upwork 12 月份的一项调查显示，近 40% 的美国工人（即超过 6400 万人）在过去 12 个月中从事过一些自由职业工作。

• from:LinkedIn Post shared by Phoebe Coyne on low economic growth can help achieve staying under 1.5 Deg C.

• for: climate solutions - low economic growth, Jason Hickel,

• for: progress trap - economic

• for: polycrisis - entrenched institutional bias, examples - entrenched institutional bias - bank macro economic policy - lobbyist

• paraphrase

  • James provides two examples of major institutional bias that has to be rapidly overcome if we are to stand a chance at facilitating rapid system change:
    • Bank of England controls macroeconomic policies that favour elites and not ordinary people and
      • these policies are beyond political contestation
    • In the normal political system, lobbyists through the revolving door between the top levels of the Civil Service and the corporate sector bias policies for elites and not ordinary citizens

• for: different possible socio-economic-political futures

• comment

  • Michel outlines the possibilities then selects the last one as the one he situates himself in and will write on, namelyl:
    • A dream to integrate:
      • markets,
      • networks,
      • state functions, AND what we could call
      • ‘the Commons’

Reference to the "welfare state" in 1971 by Gary Wills.

We need some common culture to bind humanity together. Hutchins makes the argument that the Great Conversation can help to effectuate this binding through shared culture and knowledge.

Perhaps he is even more right in the 2000s than he was in the 1950s?

The dramatic increase in economic specialization of humanity driven by the Industrial Revolution has many benefits to societies, but it also has detrimental effects when the core knowledge and shared base of the society is lost.

Certainly individuals have a greater reliance on specialists for future outcomes (think about the specialization of areas like climate science which can have destructive outcomes on all of humanity or public health outcomes with respect to vaccines and specialized health care delivery), but they also need to have a common base of knowledge/culture and the ability to think critically for themselves to be able to effect necessary changes, particularly when the pace of those changes is more rapid than humans have generally been evolved to accept them.

Writing in 1951, Hutchins is writing too close to the time period of post World War II to have a better view of this topic. He's fashioned far too simple a story as a result.

There was a lack of critical thinking and over-reliance on top down approval which was harmful in the Japanese story of this time period though.

A bulk of America was stuck in a form of economic slavery in the 1950s. See description of rural Texans in Robert Caro's LBJ biography for additional context --- washing/scrubbing, carrying water, farming, etc. without electricity in comparison to their fellow Americans who did have it.

In the 21st century there is a different form of economic slavery imposed by working to live and a culture of consumption and living on overextended credit.

Consider also the comedic story of the capitalist and the rural fisherman and the ways they chose to live their lives.

• for: population decline, economic growth vs population decline
• comment
  • John makes a good point
  • how will humans negotiate a growth economy when population is shrinking?
  • it may be that AI automation may lessen the need for human capacity, but the future is unknown how these forces will balance out

In 2019, Carthusian monks went back to their values and decided to scale back their production of Chartreuse.

Raworth, Kate. Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist. White River Junction, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing, 2017.

Based on yesterday's discussion at Dan Allosso's Book Club, we don't include defense spending into the consumer price index for calculating inflation or other market indicators. What other things (communal goods) aren't included into these measures, but which potentially should be to take into account the balance of governmental spending versus individual spending. It seems unfair that individual sectors, particularly those like defense contracting which are capitalistic in nature, but which are living on governmental rent extraction, should be free from the vagaries of inflation?

Throwing them into the basket may create broader stability for the broader system and act as a brake via feedback mechanisms which would push those corporations to work for the broader economic good, particularly when they're taking such a large piece of the overall pie.

Similarly how might we adjust corporate tax rates with respect to the level of inflation to prevent corporate price gouging during times of inflation which seems to be seen in the current 2023 economic climate. Workers have seen some small gains in salary since the pandemic, but inflationary pressures have dramatically eaten into these taking the gains and then some back into corporate coffers. The FED can increase interest rates to effect some change, but this doesn't change corporate price gouging in any way, tax or other policies will be necessary to do this.

• 21:52 Carbon credits, carbon markets
  • it's a scam designed to perpetuate fossil fuel use, in a phoney war against the climate crisis
  • Offsets were designed to allow polluters to pay others to create schemes that would compensate or "offset" that pollution. The classic example WAS afforestation, the planting of trees that can sequester that carbon.
  • Carbon neutrality comes from this idea that you can keep polluting if you offset it and become "carbon neutral"
  • A company may decarbonize a lot of their supply chain but may struggle to get rid of airflights around the world. In that case, they use offsets. When companies analyze the very difficult choices, they take the easy way out and use carbon offsets
  • However, there is so much offsets for afforestation now that there isn't enough land on earth
  • Carbon markets are a recipe for grifting and fraud or zero impacts
    • https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe
  • This is the current state of offsets

31:00 Shell oil carbon offset greenwashing scam - the sky zero proposal - Shell claims they can offset all the O+G emissions out of the ground - it is preposterous - there's not enough land on earth when you tally up all the carbon offset afforestation schemes

• 32:30 Neo-colonialism

  • rich white man can offset his emissions by buying land from a developing nation. Now the indigenous people cannot use that land for any reason.
  • also, will require huge amount of water to grow those trees
  • we don't have enough land and we don't have 100 years, only 5 years.
  • nature-based solutions are an industrial, myopic approach

• 37:00 Deferred Emission Reduction

  • a lot of carbon credits are called deferred emission reduction credits.
  • this is avoided emissions - ie. trees in a forest with 100 ton of sequestering potential
  • this is promise to not destroy the biosphere any further so it's not removing any existing carbon
  • maybe multiple people might own the same forest, or someone might come along and burn it down
  • Trees are vulnerable to climate impacts - ie. Microsoft bought a large forest in California that later burned down in a climate change intensified wildfire

• 40:00 can we do anything within the extractive capitalist system?

  • some people claim that as long as extractivist capitalism still persists, we cannot have system change
  • also a neocolonialist element - global north exploited the global south to create most of the emissions in the atmospheric commons
  • a number of people are beginning to see that an extractivist capitalist system is not in line with effectively addressing the climate crisis
  • wind, solar, etc has displaced electricity generation in a number of countries like in the UK. However, these are only a few countries.Renewables are helping increase overall energy production

• 44:22: Stop burning fossil fuels

  • t doesn't matter if investments in renewables triple. It won't make a difference if we don't significantly stop burning fossil fuels at the same time.

• 47:00 economic growth prevents real change

  • Insisting on 1, 2 or 3% growth, will limit the response to the climate threat to render it irrelevant
  • Climate change is still mostly an optimization problem. They are more concerned with economic damage.
  • Economists believe that anything that threatens economic growth cannot be accepted

• 51:00 Degrowth making headway

  • Degrowth scholars are getting more attention on the need to decouple economic grwoth from climate policies

• 52:10 Is there a positive future scenario - The role of solidarity

  • Solidarity is the greatest strength we can harness.
  • The success of Doughnut Economics gives me hope
  • The richest 1% must reign in their impacts and redistribute to allow the impoverished to live humane lives
  • We can all have good lives and we don't have to manufacture that wonder
  • This is what it is to be human

!- Title: A new economic paradigm for people and planet !- Date: Jan 30, 2023 !- Organizer: RSA !- Speakers: David Sloan Wilson, evolutionary biologist & Dennis Snower, economist

The Golden Rule not only benefits your neighbor, but you as well.

Undrar om ekonomisk brottslighet menas. Den utgör minst 100 miljarder kronor per år, alltså minst 1,8% av sveriges BNP, medan flyktingimmigration kostar cirka 1,0% av sveriges BNP; observera att flyktingimmigration bidrar till sveriges BNP, vilket ekonomisk brottslighet aldrig gör.

This sort of institutionalized economic insecurity seems bound up in institutionalized racism and may have a relationship with recent abortion bans. Can we tease out the ways these ideas are tied together or compounded?

How can alleviating the perceptions of these effects help create societal changes and greater flexibility and more resiliency?

These are potential national security issues were the country to come to war with other major powers.

The US penalizes those who don't complete high school to a higher degree than other countries and this can tend to lower our economic resiliency.

American exceptionalism at play?

Another factor at play with respect to https://hypothes.is/a/2uAmuEENEe2KentYKORSww

1. Federal Reserve Bank, “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2019” (Washington DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2020).

There is a variety of confounding myths in America which tend to hold us down. These include economic mobility, meritocracy, poverty, and the land of opportunity.

With respect to the "land of opportunity", does positive press of a small number of cases from an earlier generation outweigh the actual experience of the majority?

There was a study on The Blitz in London and England in general in World War II which showed that despite high losses in general, enough people knew one or more who'd lost someone or something to the extreme but that the losses weren't debilitating from a loss perspective and generally served to boost overall morale. Higher losses may have been more demoralizing and harmful, but didn't happen. (Find this source: possibly Malcolm Gladwell??)

Is this sort of psychological effect at play socially and politically in America and thereby confounding our progress?

https://opportunityinsights.org/

Cross reference with: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/08/raj-chettys-american-dream/592804

I should read more of Chetty's primary material here.

Title: Assessment of extra capacity required of alternative energy electrical power systems to completely replace fossil fuels Author: Prof. Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) Year: 2022