When production turns abundant, selection turns scarce. Raw output stops being the scarce thing - because the scarce thing is someone willing to tell you which output deserves your attention
Reminding me a lot of Dave Cormier's work in Learning in a Time of Abundance and elsewhere.
The only fundamentally scarce thing is the synchronous human attention of my team
这一深刻声明揭示了AI开发经济学的核心转变 - 计算资源和代币成本变得极其便宜，而人类注意力成为真正的稀缺资源，这将重塑工程团队的组织和价值分配方式。
for - rapid whole system change - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary adaptive cycle - Nafeez Ahmed - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 Oct 16 - to - book - The Ascent of Humanity - chapter 8 Self and Cosmos: The Gaian Birthing - stillborn and the perilous journey through the womb - Charles Eisenstein
summary - This is a good article that makes sense of the inflection point that humanity now faces as it contends with multiple existential crisis - It summarizes the complexity of our polycrisis and its precarity and lays the theory for looking at the polycrisis from a different perspective: - as a planetary phase shift towards the potential end of scarcity and the next stage of our species evolution - Through the lens of ecologist Crawford Stanley Holling's lens of the adaptive cycle of ecological population dynamics, - and especially his 2004 paper "From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds" - Nafeez extends Holling's argument that we are undergoing a planetary adaptive cycle in which the back-loop is the dying industrial era. - In this sense, it is reminiscent of the writings of Charles Eisenstein in his book "The Ascent of Humanity", chapter 8: Self and Cosmos:, The Gaian Birth. - Eisenstein uses the the perilous journey of birth through the womb door as a metaphor of the transition we are currently undergoing.
to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/KYCm2pFrEe-_PEu84xshXw/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org - book - The Ascent of Humanity - Chapter 8 - The Gaian Birthing - Charles Eisenstein - https://hyp.is/r8scTpG_Ee-gLTujlli5hQ/charleseisenstein.org/books/the-ascent-of-humanity/eng/the-gaian-birthing/
Culture as the ‘genetic code’ of the next leap
for - article - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - gene-culture coevolution - adjacency - indyweb dev - individual / collective evolutionary learning - provenance - tracing the evolution of ideas - gene-culture coevolution
adjacency - between - indyweb dev - individual / collective evolutionary learning - provenance - tracing the evolution of ideas - gene-culture coevolution - adjacency relationship - As DNA and epigenetics plays the role of transmitting biological adaptations, language and symmathesy play the role of transmitting cultural adaptations
for - book - The Ascent of Humanity - chapter 8 Self and Cosmos: The Gaian Birth - stillborn and the perilous journey through the womb - Charles Eisenstein - from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From 'polycrisis' to planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed
from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From 'polycrisis' to planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed - https://hyp.is/7t2GpJF7Ee-DjHfBgrshcQ/ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/
for - planetary adaptive cycle - entering back-loop phase - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024
from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 - https://hyp.is/okOeDJFqEe-9ZsMEsKWR9w/ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/
Adrian Poisson grew up studying science and math by day and art after hours beginning at the age of five
for - Adrian Bejan - constructal law - childhood - art and science - from - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024, Oct 16
Summary - Good explainer video about constructal theory and flow
from - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024, Oct 16 - https://hyp.is/Qt8IMI74Ee--f4O18QMPFQ/ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/
The constructal law of design and evolution in nature
for - paper - The constructal law of design and evolution in nature - Adrian Bejan - Sylvie Lorente - 2010 - from - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024, Oct 16
from - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024, Oct 16 - https://hyp.is/Qt8IMI74Ee--f4O18QMPFQ/ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/
“I don’t want comfort. I want God, I want poetry, I want real danger, I want freedom, and I want goodness. I want sin.”
Exactly.
Too many people would want conflict. The source of the conflict is not scarcity: it's human nature.
“It generally becomes easier to be generous if you’re doing well and you have a big windfall, [because] when there isn’t enough for everybody, it’s just a question of who is going to starve, and then everything becomes much tougher,” Bostrom told Big Think.
Tell that to the super-rich.
erif concluded that scarcity was one of the main drivers of all human conflict. War, violence, invasion, and theft were all born of wanting a limited resource. The history of all humanity seems to support the hypothesis: We fight over water, cattle, arable land, ore deposits, oil, precious stones, and so on.
He concluded incorrectly.
Rich people already have more resources than they could ever use. The richest amongst us could not ever spend all the money they possess. But that does not seem to have stopped them from continuing to want more, and more, and more.
Eine Studie zum Wasserverbrauch im als Beispiel untersuchen Kapstadt ergibt, dass die reichsten 14% fast 50% der Ressourcen verbrauchen. Gegen den zunehmenden Wassermangel sind vor allem Maßnahmen wirksam, die Ungerechtigkeit und Verschwendung reduzieren. Verbesserungen der Infrastruktur können die Probleme nicht lösen. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/dossier/siccita--gestione-acqua/2023/04/17/news/consumo_eccessivo_acqua_paesi_ricchi_poveri-396442500/
This winner-take-all popularity pattern of memes, in which most are barely noticed while a few spread widely, could not be explained by some of them being more catchy or somehow more valuable: the memes in this simulated world had no intrinsic quality. Virality resulted purely from the statistical consequences of information proliferation in a social network of agents with limited attention.
Johnson, S. (2021, June 7). Spat at, abused, attacked: Healthcare staff face rising violence during Covid. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/jun/07/spat-at-abused-attacked-healthcare-staff-face-rising-violence-during-covid
“Scarcity: WhyHaving Too Little Means So Much” (2013) by Mullainathan andShafir. They investigate how the experience of scarcity has cognitiveeffects and causes changes in decision-making processes.
I'm reminded of a reference recently to Republicans being upset that poor people of color would "waste" their money on frivolities like manicures and fake fingernails instead of on food or other necessities. How might this tie into the argument made in this book?
It’s the fear that having a kid in this day and age dooms that kid to a miserable life on a miserably hot planet.
That may be what some people believe, but there are other reasons too. Resource depletion, food shortages, and underemployment are big ones. Having fewer children isn't just about the climate; it's about creating a generally healthier society in the long term.
To me, the greatest benefit of IndexCards is that they force you to not write too much. This is a big help to those of us who are still squishing the bitter juice of BigDesignUpFront from our brains. The expense and rarity of vellum played a similar role in MedievalArchitecture.
Civai, C., Caserotti, M., Carrus, E., Huijsmans, I., & Rubaltelli, E. (2021). Perceived scarcity and cooperation contextualized to the COVID-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zu2a3
KupferschmidtFeb. 17, K., 2021, & Pm, 2:45. (2021, February 17). Unprotected African health workers die as rich countries buy up COVID-19 vaccines. Science | AAAS. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/unprotected-african-health-workers-die-rich-countries-buy-covid-19-vaccines
If membership isn’t scarce, the membership loses its signal message. The same applies to physical products: Apple will never offer a cheap iPhone to compete with low-end Android devices – it would destroy the company’s signal message that the iPhone is a luxury product.
If a high-end brand comes out with a low-end offering, it is diluting the high-end part of their brand message. Apple will never come out with a low-end version of the iPhone because it would dilute the message of being a premium phone.
Jordà, Ò., Singh, S. R., & Taylor, A. M. (2020). Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (Working Paper No. 26934; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26934
Stephany, F., Dunn, M., Sawyer, S., & Lehdonvirta, V. (2020). Distancing Bonus or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of US Online Workers in Times of COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/vmg34
Buckwalter, W., & Peterson, A. (2020). Public Attitudes Toward Allocating Scarce Resources During the COVID-19 Pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wuvta
According to Eschwege, the total produce of the Brazilian diamond mines for the eighty years, ending in 1823, had not realised the price of one-and-a-half years’ average produce of the sugar and coffee plantations of the same country, although the diamonds cost much more labour, and therefore represented more value.
Diamonds were first discovered in Brazil in 1729 near the city of Belo Horizonte. This started a diamond rush and a period of feverish migration of workers.
Major diamond rushes also took place in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in South Africa and South-West Africa.
Diamond rushes, like gold rushes or other types of rushes, are for Marx economic bubbles or asset bubbles (sometimes referred to today as speculative bubbles, market bubbles, price bubbles, financial bubbles, speculative manias, or balloons).
At the same time, US companies are deleveraging, which has shrunk the supply of new corporate debt, leading to a dearth of investment-grade issuance. Net supply from municipal borrowers, another vital source of new issuance, has also turned negative so there is not enough available for pension funds and insurers to buy.
Becoming posthuman means exceeding the limitations that define the less desirable aspects of the “human condition.” Posthuman beings would no longer suffer from disease, aging, and inevitable death (but they are likely to face other challenges). They would have vastly greater physical capability and freedom of form
Posthuman beings contradict the human conditions that apply to my life, and every living being for that matter: immortality is non-existent. The passage alludes that the posthuman evolution will oppose the current human condition, and humanity will be redefine its physical form. A reformation in the modern humans understanding of scarcity is entirely different than that of the posthuman. With increased control over the posthumans physical capability are differing in juxtaposition to the human condition in the twenty first century: Prompting our modern society with the question of whether the human condition makes significant biological changes. The change from the former to the latter intertwines technological advancements with physical capabilities, although to what end? The human condition will be a backbone to the technology that manages the posthumans interpretation of reality.
Expert communicators may sometimes be perceived as trustworthy because they know a lot about the product they are selling.
Brain Games persuasion experiment: A fake sales person utilizes the halo effect, expert bias, and artificial scarcity to to promote a worthless product to consumers.
Word is getting around, and I have more clients than I can handle. I've had to expand my training facilities and hire new trainers, and I still can't meet the demand!
having clients waiting in line to see me
Another perspective sees competition as a function not just of funding, but of thebalance between supply and demand of resources, particularly human resources. Inthe current competitive system, young scientists are pitted against one another forattractive career opportunities that are becoming increasingly scarce [28].Researchers, feeling the pressure to be first to present findings in their fields,employ armies of graduate students and postdoctoral fellows and strive to maketheir laboratory groups the smartest and the fastest. The result is a ‘‘postdocbottleneck’’ [29] where the supply for highly educated and trained researchers farexceeds the demand [30–33]. In concrete terms, Donald Kennedy and colleagues[34] have described the structural problem as a source of excess supply of humancapital: ‘‘We’ve arranged to produce more knowledge workers than we can employ,creating a labor-excess economy that keeps labor costs down and productivity high’’(p. 1105). The system produces, they claim, a ‘‘legion of the discontented’’ [34].They argue that institutional and policy decisions about training scientists should becoupled to placement histories of recent graduates, numbers of intellectual offspringof faculty, and job markets for scientists. Roger L. Geiger [35] has suggested thatthe imbalance between supply and demand is due in part to deficiencies in graduate
Role of lack of positions. Interestingly, this has been shown by Fang et al to be not reflected in misconduct stats: i.e. the vast majority of scientific fraud is conducted by senior (male) scientists, not job hungry post-docs or grad students.
Analysts differ as to the reasons why competition has intensified. Some see thesituation in terms of money. Tempering the effects of competition is not a primeimpetus behind calls by the National Science Board [26] and by a recent coalition of140 college presidents and other leaders [27] for more federal funding for scientificresearch; however, some scientists see such advocacy movements in terms of easingcertain aspects of competition that are worsened by tight dollars. More money, morepositions, and overall expansion of the research enterprise would improve thesituation
role of funding
here are indications, however, that the natureof competition has changed in recent years. Goodstein [25] argues that this shift islinked to negative outcomes:Throughout most of its history, science was constrained only by the limits ofits participants’ imagination and creativity. In the past few decades, however,that state of affairs has changed dramatically. Science is now held back mainlyby the number of research posts and the amount of research funds available.What had been a purely intellectual competition has become an intensestruggle for scarce resources. In the long run, this change, which is permanentand irreversible, will probably have an undesirable effect on ethical behavioramong scientists. Instances of scientific fraud will almost surely become morecommon, as will other forms of scientific misconduct (p. 31)
relationship of negative aspects of competition to change in funding model that promotes scarcity. See Goodstein, D. (2002). Scientific misconduct.Academe, 88, 28–31
As intellectual property lacks scarcity, and the protection of it fails the Lockean Proviso, there is no natural right to intellectual property. As such, the justification for intellectual property rights arises from the social con tract, and in the case of the United States, the Constitution.
The justification for intellectual property from the social contract established by the US Constitution; it otherwise has no justification by natural right because it fails the Lockean Proviso.
Property Status Conclusions and Implications Intellectual property is neither ‘scarce,’ nor does the taking of it leave “enough, and as good, left in comm on for others” (the Lockean proviso) (Long, 1995, n. pag.; Locke, 1690, Chap. V, Sect. 27).
Intellectual property is neither scarce nor leaves enough for the common good. It is not property in the Lockean sense.
these traditional property rights, as suggested by Locke, depend on the scarcity of that property (1995, n. pag.). I f ‘Joe’ owns property and ‘Sue’ acquires it, then Joe no longer has it, and Sue has harmed Joe (by stealing). Joe’s property is scarce.
Insofar as the individual wants to maintain himself against other individuals, he will under natural circumstances employ the intellect mainly for dissimulation.
Seeing the world as a hostile place, we defend with our power to deceive. Competition and survival based in theories of scarcity.
Indeed, I think there are scarcely any who can do both things--that is, speak well, and; in order to do this, think of the rules of speaking while they are speaking.
Is that not the point? That it takes skill to learn to do both things at once? So rhetorical strategy should not be used because few can speak well and remember strategy?
Good, too, are things that are a man's very own, possessed by no one else, exceptional; for this increases the credit of having them.
Good through virtue of their scarcity.