1.Drawing on access to a private conference attended by the world’s leading anti-vaxxers, CCDH has been able to reveal their plan to use social media to spread distrust about the Covid vaccine and recruit new supporters to their cause.2.Leading anti-vaxxers view Covid as an historic opportunity forthem to reach larger numbers of the public than ever before, and to create long-lasting distrust in the effectiveness, safety and necessity for vaccination.3.Online anti-vaxxers continue to grow, with 147 of the leading accounts gaining 10.1 million followers since 2019, an increase of 25%. The additional growth took place primarily on Instagram and YouTube, with anti-vaxxers adding an extra 4.3 million followers on each platform.4.Anti-vaxxers have developed a sophisticated playbook for spreading uncertainty about a Covid vaccine, converting vaccine-hesitant people into committed anti-vaxxers, and resisting attempts to remove their misinformation.5.Online anti-vaxxers have organised themselves around a “master narrative” comprised of three key messages: Covidis not dangerous, the vaccine is dangerous and vaccine advocates cannot be trusted.6.Alternative health entrepreneurs, conspiracy theorists and accounts aimed at parents or ethnic communities vastly expand the reach of this master narrative and tailor it to cause uncertainty in their audiences.7.Anti-vaxxers have created accessible online “answering spaces” such as Facebook Groups, Instagram accounts and purpose-built websites that are designed to answer legitimate questions about a Covid vaccine with anti-vaccine misinformation.8.The most establishedanti-vaccine“answering spaces” identify vaccine hesitant individuals, convert them into committed anti-vaxxers and offer training to make them more effective activists.9.Anti-vaxxers are attempting to mitigate the removal of their misinformation by adopting a “Lifeboat Strategy” of migrating their followers to “alt-tech” platforms such as Telegram and Parler, but with little success.10.The public are urged not to engage with anti-vaxx misinformation online, even to rebut it or criticise it, because doing so only spreads the misinformation to new audiences. The example is given of anti-vaxxer narratives “trending” on social media on the first day of the vaccine rollout, primarily due to pro-vaccine accounts amplifyingthem. Instead, users are urged to share pro-vaccine messages.11.Platforms are urged to remove the accounts of anti-vaxx “superspreaders”, those accounts with the largest followings and using the most cynical tactics. The report provides evidence that some are guilty of promoting false cures for Covid and training their social media followers to spread harmful misinformation.12.Pro-vaccine practitioners are advised to focus on inoculating the public by ignoring individual memes and focusing on the master narrative, with a series of suggestions for how “inoculation” can make individuals more resilient to anti-vaxxer messaging

The Anti-Vaxx Playbook

Summary1.R in England is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0, higher than that estimated before schools reopened (between 0.6 to 0.8). As yet, the full effect of schools has not been fully reflected in these estimates nor has theimpactof easing restrictions from 29thMarch.2.The modelling presented here does not account for waning immunity nor the future emergence of immune-or vaccine-escapevariants.TheB.1.351 strain of SARS-CoV-2 is of particular concern for the UK,given the known reduced protection against mild tomoderate diseasefrom some vaccines. 3.There is considerable uncertainty about the level of control that can be achieved at each step of the Roadmap, and therefore the subsequent trajectory of hospital admissions and deaths. It remains criticalto evaluate the effect of each step before taking the next.4.While more data have accrued on real-world vaccine effectiveness and coverage, modelling results remain highly dependent on assumptions about unknown factorsincluding the rate of transmission at each stepas a result of behaviour changes; the extent to which baseline measures continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted; the impact of seasonal changes in transmission; and future vaccine rollout speed.High vaccine coverage (90% in under 50-year olds) is assumedhere. Uncertainty increases when looking further into the future.5.Any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths following Step 2 of the Roadmap aloneis highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. 6.It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deathsafter the later steps of the Roadmap. The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain;in most scenarios modelled,any peakis smaller than the wave seen in January 2021, however, scenarios with little transmission reduction after Step 4 orwith pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptionscan result in resurgences in hospitalisations of asimilar scale to January2021.7.Maintaining baseline measures to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity.8.Even accounting for some seasonal variation in transmission, thepeak could occur in either summer or late summer/autumn. It is possible that seasonality could delay or flatten the resurgence but is highly unlikely to prevent it altogether.

SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling ofeasing restrictions–Roadmap Step 2

All medical treatments have potential harms as well as potential benefits, and it's important to be able to weigh these against each other. With vaccines, the benefits are particularly complex as they can involve benefits to others as well as to ourselves - and the harms can feel particularly acute because we take vaccines when we are healthy, as a preventative measure.

News - Communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine

10.1101/2021.04.07.21255072

Background Covid-status certification – certificates for those who test negative for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, test positive for antibodies, or who have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 – has been proposed to enable safer access to a range of activities. Realising these benefits will depend in part upon the behavioural and social impacts of certification. The aim of this rapid review was to describe public attitudes towards certification, and its possible impact on uptake of testing and vaccination, protective behaviours, and crime.Method A search was undertaken in peer-reviewed databases, pre-print databases, and the grey literature, from 2000 to December 2020. Studies were included if they measured attitudes towards or behavioural consequences of health certificates based on one of three indices of Covid-19 status: test-negative result for current infectiousness, test-positive for antibodies conferring natural immunity, or vaccination(s) conferring immunity.Results Thirty-three papers met the inclusion criteria, only three of which were rated as low risk of bias. Public attitudes were generally favourable towards the use of immunity certificates for international travel, but unfavourable towards their use for access to work and other activities. A significant minority was strongly opposed to the use of certificates of immunity for any purpose. The limited evidence suggested that intention to get vaccinated varied with the activity enabled by certification or vaccination (e.g., international travel). Where vaccination is seen as compulsory this could lead to unwillingness to accept a subsequent vaccination. There was some evidence that restricting access to settings and activities to those with antibody test certificates may lead to deliberate exposure to infection in a minority. Behaviours that reduce transmission may decrease upon health certificates based on any of the three indices of Covid-19 status, including physical distancing and handwashing.Conclusions The limited evidence suggests that health certification in relation to COVID-19 – outside of the context of international travel – has the potential for harm as well as benefit. Realising the benefits while minimising the harms will require real-time evaluations allowing modifications to maximise the potential contribution of certification to enable safer access to a range of activities.

Behavioural responses to Covid-19 health certification: A rapid review

Posts are sharing the false statement that the spike protein in COVID-19 vaccines is cytotoxic, suggesting that it kills or damages cells. There is no evidence to support this.

Fact Check-COVID-19 vaccines are not ‘cytotoxic’

10.31234/osf.io/wr8ds

Online data collection has become indispensable to the social sciences, polling, marketing, and corporate research. However, in recent years, online data collection has been inundated with low quality data. Low quality data threatens the validity of online research and, at times, invalidates entire studies. It is often assumed that random, inconsistent, and fraudulent data in online surveys comes from ‘bots.’ But little is known about whether bad data is caused by bots or ill-intentioned or inattentive humans. We examined this issue on Mechanical Turk (MTurk), a popular online data collection platform. In the summer of 2018, researchers noticed a sharp increase in the number of data quality problems on MTurk, problems that were commonly attributed to bots. Despite this assumption, few studies have directly examined whether problematic data on MTurk are from bots or inattentive humans, even though identifying the source of bad data has important implications for creating the right solutions. Using CloudResearch’s data quality tools to identify problematic participants in 2018 and 2020, we provide evidence that much of the data quality problems on MTurk can be tied to fraudulent users from outside of the U.S. who pose as American workers. Hence, our evidence strongly suggests that the source of low quality data is real humans, not bots. We additionally present evidence that these fraudulent users are behind data quality problems on other platforms.

Bots or inattentive humans? Identifying sources of low-quality data in online platforms

10.31234/osf.io/895gt

We can maximize the impact of scientific conferences by uploading all conference presentations, posters, and abstracts to highly-trafficked public repositories for each content type. Talks can be hosted on sites like YouTube and Youku, posters can be published on Figshare, and papers/abstracts can become Open Access PrePrints.

How to boost the impact of scientific conferences

Our basic beliefs about reality can be impossible to prove and yet we can feel a strong intuitive conviction for them, as exemplified by insights that imbue an idea with immediate certainty. Here we presented participants with worldviews such as “people’s core qualities are fixed”, and simultaneously elicited an aha moment. In the first experiment (N = 3,000), which included a direct replication, participants rated worldview beliefs as truer when they solved anagrams and experienced aha moments. A second experiment (N = 1,005) showed that the worldview statement and the aha moment must be perceived simultaneously for the insight misattribution effect to occur. These results demonstrate that artificially induced aha moments can make worldviews seem truer, possibly because humans rely on feelings of insight to appraise an idea’s veracity. Feelings of insight are therefore not epiphenomenal and should be investigated for their effects on decisions, beliefs, and delusions.

10.31234/osf.io/zq3vd

The ring of truth: Irrelevant insights make worldviews seem true

10.31234/osf.io/pufd5

Older adults face significant challenges in regards to the various stereotypes associated with ageing, which have consequences for their mental health and wellbeing. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened these age-based stereotypes due to older adults’ proportionally higher vulnerability to the virus. The present research explored how the pandemic has exacerbated the challenges of ageing by impacting on the social identities of older adults and how these challenges have been met. Eleven focus groups were conducted with 32 UK older adults from a range of household compositions. Guided by the social identity approach, a thematic analysis found that participants faced a number of recognisable stereotype threats: loss of opportunities to enact meaningful identities, loss of autonomy and loss of usefulness. Despite these threats, we also found participants used identity management strategies and mobilised existing or new social identities to give and receive of support and to retain a meaningful and purposeful life. The implications of this research are that governments and those supporting older adults can attend to the negative psychology impact of protective policies and know that fostering group connections can be a source of pandemic resilience.

A Siege on Positive Ageing: COVID-19 as Exacerbating Age-based Stereotype Threats among Older Adults

10.31234/osf.io/dgmc2

Online behavioral data, such as digital traces from social media, have the potential to allow researchers an unprecedented new window into human behavior in ecologically valid everyday contexts. However, research using such data is often purely observational, limiting its ability to identify causal relationships. Here we review recent innovations in experimental approaches to studying online behavior, with a particular focus on research related to misinformation and political psychology. In hybrid lab-field studies, exposure to social media content can be randomized, and the impact on attitudes and beliefs measured using surveys; or exposure to treatments can be randomized within survey experiments, and their impact observed on subsequent online behavior. In field experiments conducted on social media, randomized treatments can be administered directly to users in the online environment - e.g. via social tie invitations, private messages, or public posts - without revealing that they are part of an experiment, and the impacts on subsequent online behavior observed. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed, along with practical advice and central ethical constraints on such studies.

Field experiments on social media

10.31234/osf.io/6tpa8

Contemporary society is facing many pressing challenges, including climate change, Covid-19, and misinformation. Here we illustrate how these three crises are each social dilemmas, characterized by a conflict between short-term self-interest and longer-term collective interest. The climate crisis requires paying costs today to benefit distant others in the future. The Covid-19 crisis requires the less vulnerable to pay costs to benefit the more vulnerable, in the face of great uncertainty. The misinformation crisis requires investing effort to assess truth, as well as resisting the temptation to spread attractive falsehoods. Addressing these crises therefore requires understanding human cooperation. To that end, we present (i) a brief overview of mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation, including mechanisms based on similarity (i.e., kinship, spatial selection, and group selection) and those based on interaction (i.e., direct reciprocity, reputation); (ii) a detailed discussion of how reputation can incentivize cooperation via conditional cooperation and signaling; and (iii) a review of social preferences that undergird the proximate psychology of cooperation, including positive regard for others (i.e., a cooperative orientation to others in general), parochialism (i.e., a cooperative orientation to ingroups, sometimes at a cost to outgroups or the collective as a whole), and egalitarianism (i.e., an orientation that seeks to reduce absolute differences in outcomes for self and others). We then discuss each of the three focal crises facing our society through the lens of cooperation, emphasizing how insights from cooperation research can inform efforts to address these crises.

Human Cooperation and the Crises of Climate Change, COVID-19, and Misinformation

10.31234/osf.io/ewvp7

In the last two years, governments of many countries imposed heavy social restrictions to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus, with consequent increase of bad mood, distress, or depression for the people involved. Few studies investigated the impact of these restrictive measures on individual social proficiency, and specifically the processing of emotional facial information, leading to mixed results. The present research aimed at investigating systematically whether, and to which extent, social isolation influences the processing of facial expressions. To this end, we manipulated the social exclusion experimentally through the well-known Cyberball game (within-subject factor), and we exploited the occurrence of the lockdown for the Swiss COVID-19 first wave by recruiting participants before and after being restricted at home (grouping factor). We then tested whether either form of social segregation influenced the processing of pain, disgust or neutral expressions, across multiple tasks probing access to different components of affective facial responses (state-specific, shared across states). We found that the lockdown (but not game-induced exclusion) affected negatively the processing of pain-specific information, without influencing other components of the affective facial response related to disgust or broad unpleasantness. In addition, participants recruited after the confinement reported lower scores in both empathy questionnaires and affective assessments of Cyberball co-players. These results suggest that social isolation affected negatively individual sensitivity to other people’s affect and, with specific reference to the processing of facial expressions, the processing of pain-diagnostic information.

Far from the eyes, far from the heart. COVID-19 confinement dampened sensitivity to painful facial features.

June 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Wednesday it plans to move quickly to add a warning about rare cases of heart inflammation in adolescents and young adults to fact sheets for the Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE.N), and Moderna (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccines.

FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna vaccines

10.31234/osf.io/u46bm

Objective: Although several COVID-19 vaccines are available, the current challenge is achieving high vaccine uptake. We aimed to explore university students’ intention to get vaccinated and select the most relevant determinants/beliefs to facilitate informed decision-making around COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey with students (N = 434) from Maastricht University was conducted in March 2021. The most relevant determinants/beliefs of students’ COVID-19 vaccine intention (i.e., determinants linked to vaccination intention, and with enough potential for change) were visualized using CIBER plots. Results: Students’ intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine is high (80 %). Concerns about safety and side effects of the vaccine and trust in government, quality control, and the pharmaceutical industry are identified as the most relevant determinants of vaccine intention. Other predictors are risk perception, attitude, perceived norm, and self-efficacy beliefs. Conclusion: Our study identified several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine intention (e.g., safety, trust, risk perception, etc.) and helped to select the most relevant determinants/beliefs to target in an intervention to maximize the COVID-19 uptake. Where concerns and trust related to the COVID-19 vaccine are the most important target for future interventions, other determinants that were already positive (i.e., risk perception, attitudes, perceived norms, and self-efficacy) could be further confirmed.

Facilitating Informed Decision Making: Determinants of University Students’ COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake

The chance of getting covid-19 after being vaccinated drops sharply 21 days following a first dose, new analysis suggests.

Risk of covid-19 infection plummets 21 days after a vaccination

10.5334/joc.161

Repeated statements are rated as subjectively truer than comparable new statements, even though repetition alone provides no new, probative information (the illusory truth effect). Contrary to some theoretical predictions, the illusory truth effect seems to be similar in magnitude for repetitions occurring after minutes or weeks. This Registered Report describes a longitudinal investigation of the illusory truth effect (n = 608, n = 567 analysed) in which we systematically manipulated intersession interval (immediately, one day, one week, and one month) in order to test whether the illusory truth effect is immune to time. Both our hypotheses were supported: We observed an illusory truth effect at all four intervals (overall effect: χ2(1) = 169.91; Mrepeated = 4.52, Mnew = 4.14; H1), with the effect diminishing as delay increased (H2). False information repeated over short timescales might have a greater effect on truth judgements than repetitions over longer timescales. Researchers should consider the implications of the choice of intersession interval when designing future illusory truth effect research.

The Trajectory of Truth: A Longitudinal Study of the Illusory Truth Effect

2106.10348v1

Interevent times in temporal contact data from humans and animals typically obey heavy-taileddistributions, and this property impacts contagion and other dynamical processes on networks. Wetheoretically show that distributions of interevent times heavier-tailed than exponential distributionsare a consequence of the most basic metapopulation model used in epidemiology and ecology, inwhich individuals move from a patch to another according to the simple random walk. Our resultshold true irrespectively of the network structure and also for more realistic mobility rules such ashigh-order random walks and the recurrent mobility patterns used for modeling human dynamics.

Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times

2106.10384v1

In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection betweenindividuals is constant, in reality, an individual’s viral load determines their infectiousness. Wecompare the average and individual reproductive numbers, epidemic dynamics, and interventionstrategies for a model incorporating time-dependent infectiousness and a standard SIR model forboth fully-mixed and category-mixed populations. We find that the reproductive number onlydepends on the total infectious exposure and the largest eigenvalue of the mixing matrix and thatthese two effects are independent of each other. We also find that when we compare our time-dependent mean-field model to the SIR model with identical rates, the epidemic peak is advancedand more pronounced and modifying the infection rate function has a strong effect on the timedynamics of the epidemic. Lastly, we explore the effect of social and pharmaceutical interventionson our theoretical framework.

The effect of time-dependent infectiousness on epidemic dynamics

arXiv:2106.10607v1

Despite the significant advances in identifying the driver nodes and energy requiring in networkcontrol, a framework that incorporates more complicated dynamics remains challenging. Here, weconsider the conformity behavior into network control, showing that the control of networked sys-tems with conformity will become easier as long as the numberof external inputs beyond a criticalpoint. We find that this critical point is fundamentally determined by the network connectivity. Inparticular, we investigate the nodal structural characteristic in network control and propose optimalcontrol strategy to reduce the energy requiring in controlling networked systems with conformitybehavior. We examine those findings in various synthetic andreal networks, confirming that theyare universal in describing the control energy of networkedsystems. Our results advance the under-standing of network control in practical applications.

Optimal control of complex networks with conformity behavior

Nucleocapsid (N) protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus packages the viral genome intowell-defined ribonucleoprotein particles, but the molecular pathway is still un-clear. N-protein is dimeric and consists of two folded domains with nucleic acid(NA) binding sites, surrounded by intrinsically disordered regions that promoteliquid-liquid phase separation. Here, we use biophysical tools to study N-proteininteractions with oligonucleotides of different lengths, examining the size,composition, secondary structure, and energetics of the resulting states. Weobserve the formation of supramolecular clusters or nuclei preceding growthinto phase-separated droplets. Short hexanucleotide NA forms compact 2:2 N-protein/NA complexes with reduced disorder. Longer oligonucleotides exposeadditional N-protein interactions and multi-valent protein-NA interactions, whichgenerate higher-order mixed oligomers and simultaneously promote growth ofdroplets. Phase separation is accompanied by a significant change in protein sec-ondary structure, different from that caused by initial NA binding, which maycontribute to the assembly of ribonucleoprotein particles within macromolecularcondensates.

Energetic and structural features of SARS-CoV-2 N-protein co-assemblies with nucleic acids

Schuck's research, recently published in iScience, investigates how the N protein interacts with oligonucleotides—short stretches of DNA and RNA—to demystify how the viral genome is packaged. Using biophysical methods, Schuck and his colleagues found out that when the N protein interacts with nucleotides of sufficient length, it adopts a shape that promotes interactions with other proteins. What's more, when the N protein binds with multiple copies of itself and long stretches of oligonucleotides, it can condense into highly concentrated droplets that are thought to ultimately enable the formation of ribonucleoprotein particles. Targeting interactions between the N protein and its binding partners might be a viable way to inhibit the viral replication of SARS-CoV-2, Schuck said.

Study finds potentially druggable process of SARS-CoV-2 replication

A review of more than 9,000 US patients with severe COVID-19 infection showed less than 1 percent contracted the illness again, with an average reinfection time of 3.5 months after an initial positive test.

COVID-19 reinfection rate less than 1 percent for those with severe illness, study finds

10.1093/cid/ciab345/6251701

Re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 was infrequent, occurring in 63 (0.7%) of 9,119patients, but was associated with two deaths. Re-infection appeared to be milder than primary infection.

Re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 in Patients Undergoing Serial Laboratory Testing

Every state that has passed President Joe Biden’s goal of partially or fully inoculating at least 70% of their adults by July 4 also voted for the president in 2020, a further sign of how politics has affected the vaccine rollout. 

All 16 States That Have Hit Biden’s Vaccine Goal Voted For Him In 2020

This report looks at attitudes towards a COVID-19 vaccine in 15 countries between November 2020 and February 2021. Countries included are Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Israel (added in January), Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. For each country except Israel there are at least 5 waves of responses. Exact sample sizes in each country and wave are included at the end of the report. As of mid-February, •Over half (58%) of respondents report they would definitely get a COVID-19 vaccine if it were made available to them the week of the survey. Comparing November 2020 and February 2021, the share of respondents who “strongly agreed” that they would get the vaccine has increased by at least 9 percentage points in 11 of the 14 countries surveyed, and by over 20 percentage points in 7 of these. The share of respondents who “strongly disagreed” has decreased or remained relatively constant across all 14 countries surveyed. •Less than half (45%) of respondents feel worried about potential side effects of a COVID-19 vaccine. One in four (25%) state they are indifferent. Comparing November 2020 and February 2021, the share of respondents who “strongly agreed” that they were worried about side effects has decreased or remained relatively constant across all 14 countries surveyed.•Less than half (45%) of respondents are worried about getting COVID-19. One in four (28%) state they are indifferent. Comparing November 2020 and February 2021, the share of those that are indifferent has remained close to or above 30% in 11 of the 14 countries surveyed. Across all countries, there has been relatively little variation in the responses during this time.•Over half (56%) of respondents believe their government health authorities will provide them with an effective COVID-19 vaccine. One in four (27%) report no opinion on the matter. While there was an increase in confidence from November 2020 to January 2021, this may be decreasing in some countries. The share of those who “strongly agree” that their government will be able to provide a vaccine decreased between January and February in 8 of the 14 countries surveyed. As of mid-February, the share of those who “strongly agree” is within +/-8 percentage points of its respective rate in November in all countries except the UK, where this share has increased from 19% to 38%. •Two of every three respondents (68%) trust COVID-19 vaccines “very much” or “moderately”, with only 11% reporting no trust at all. Except for Israel and Denmark, response rates across countries surveyed have remained relatively consistent, with changes of +/-5 percentage points between January and February. In Israel, the share of those who report trusting the vaccine “very much” increased from 34% at the end of January to 47% mid-February. In Denmark, this rate decreased from 43% to 35% during the same time period.•Over half (55%) of respondents report that it would be hard to get a COVID-19 vaccine. This is the case in 9 of the 15 countries surveyed. Except for the UK, response rates in all countries have remained relatively consistent, with changes of +/-7 percentage points between January and February. In the UK, the share of those who report it would not be hard to get a vaccine increased from 42% mid-January to 54% mid-February.

Covid-19:Globalattitudes towards a COVID-19 vaccine

Labour leftwingers and Tory libertarians oppose them, while Keir Starmer’s position appears flexible

UK Covid passports – who's for and who's against?

Consortium experts note that higher participation in inoculations will be needed

Vaccines can get us to herd immunity, despite the variants

10.1101/2021.03.11.21253275

Background The effect of vaccination for COVID-19 on onward transmission is unknown.Methods A national record linkage study determined documented COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations in unvaccinated household members of vaccinated and unvaccinated healthcare workers from 8th December 2020 to 3rd March 2021. The primary endpoint was COVID-19 14 days following the first dose.Results The cohort comprised of 194,362 household members (mean age 31·1 ± 20·9 years) and 144,525 healthcare workers (mean age 44·4 ± 11·4 years). 113,253 (78·3%) of healthcare workers received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and 36,227 (25·1%) received a second dose. There were 3,123 and 4,343 documented COVID-19 cases and 175 and 177 COVID-19 hospitalisations in household members of healthcare workers and healthcare workers respectively. Household members of vaccinated healthcare workers had a lower risk of COVID-19 case compared to household members of unvaccinated healthcare worker (rate per 100 person-years 9·40 versus 5·93; HR 0·70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0·63 to 0·78). The effect size for COVID-19 hospitalisation was similar, with the confidence interval crossing the null (HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·53 to 1·10]). The rate per 100 person years was lower in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated healthcare workers for documented (20·13 versus 8·51; HR 0·45 [95% CI 0·42 to 0·49]) and hospitalized COVID-19 (0·97 versus 0·14; HR 0·16 [95% CI 0·09 to 0·27]). Compared to the period before the first dose, the risk of documented COVID-19 case was lower at ≥ 14 days after the second dose for household members (HR 0·46 [95% CI 0·30to 0·70]) and healthcare workers (HR 0·08 [95% CI 0·04 to 0·17]).Interpretation Vaccination of health care workers was associated with a substantial reduction in COVID-19 cases in household contacts consistent with an effect of vaccination on transmission.

Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: an observational study in healthcare workers and their households

Exclusive: Equalities watchdog tells government documents could create ‘two-tier society’

Covid-status certificate scheme could be unlawful discrimination, says EHRC

Nationwide chains criticise plan as undemocratic, unworkable and unfair to younger people

Pubs and clubs attack UK Covid passport scheme

10.1101/2021.04.26.21255788

Background In most countries, healthcare workers (HCWs) represent a priority group for vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) due to their elevated risk of COVID-19 and potential contribution to nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Concerns have been raised that HCWs from ethnic minority groups are more likely to be vaccine hesitant (defined by the World Health Organisation as refusing or delaying a vaccination) than those of White ethnicity, but there are limited data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy and its predictors in UK HCWs.Methods Nationwide prospective cohort study and qualitative study in a multi-ethnic cohort of clinical and non-clinical UK HCWs. We analysed ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy adjusting for demographics, vaccine trust, and perceived risk of COVID-19. We explored reasons for hesitancy in qualitative data using a framework analysis.Findings 11,584 HCWs were included in the cohort analysis. 23% (2704) reported vaccine hesitancy. Compared to White British HCWs (21.3% hesitant), HCWs from Black Caribbean (54.2%), Mixed White and Black Caribbean (38.1%), Black African (34.4%), Chinese (33.1%), Pakistani (30.4%), and White Other (28.7%) ethnic groups were significantly more likely to be hesitant. In adjusted analysis, Black Caribbean (aOR 3.37, 95% CI 2.11 - 5.37), Black African (aOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.49 - 2.82), White Other ethnic groups (aOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.19 - 1.84) were significantly more likely to be hesitant. Other independent predictors of hesitancy were younger age, female sex, higher score on a COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs scale, lower trust in employer, lack of influenza vaccine uptake in the previous season, previous COVID-19, and pregnancy. Qualitative data from 99 participants identified the following contributors to hesitancy: lack of trust in government and employers, safety concerns due to the speed of vaccine development, lack of ethnic diversity in vaccine studies, and confusing and conflicting information. Participants felt uptake in ethnic minority communities might be improved through inclusive communication, involving HCWs in the vaccine rollout, and promoting vaccination through trusted networks.Interpretation Despite increased risk of COVID-19, HCWs from some ethnic minority groups are more likely to be vaccine hesitant than their White British colleagues. Strategies to build trust and dispel myths surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine in these communities are urgently required. Public health communications should be inclusive, non-stigmatising and utilise trusted networks.Funding MRC-UK Research and Innovation (MR/V027549/1), the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and NIHR Biomedical Research Centres and NIHR Applied Research Collaboration East Midlands.Evidence before this study We searched Pubmed using the following search terms ((COVID-19).ti,ab OR (SARS-CoV-2).ti,ab) AND ((vaccine).ti,ab OR (vaccination).ti,ab OR (immunisation).ti,ab)) AND ((healthcare worker).ti,ab OR (health worker).ti,ab OR (doctor).ti,ab OR (nurse).ti,ab OR (healthcare professional).ti,ab)) AND ((hesitancy).ti,ab OR (refusal).ti,ab OR (uptake).ti,ab)). The search returned 60 results, of which 38 were excluded after title and abstract screening, 11 studies were not conducted in a population of healthcare workers, 20 did not present data on vaccine intention or uptake, 5 were related to vaccines other than the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, 1 was unrelated to vaccination and 1 had been withdrawn. The 22 remaining articles were survey studies focussed on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intention in healthcare workers. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine acceptance varied widely from 27·7% - 94·5% depending on the country in which the study was performed, and the occupational group studied. Only 2 studies (both conducted in the USA) had a sample size greater than 10,000. Most studies found females, non-medical healthcare staff and those refusing influenza vaccine to be more likely to be hesitant. There was conflicting evidence about the effects of age and previous COVID-19 on hesitancy. Only 3 studies (all from the USA), presented data disaggregated by ethnicity, all finding Black ethnic HCWs were most likely to be hesitant. Common themes amongst studies that investigated reasons for vaccine hesitancy were concerns about safety of vaccines, fear of side effects and short development timeframes. We did not find any studies on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy in UK healthcare workers in the published literature.Added value of this study This study is amongst the largest SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy studies in the literature. It is the largest study outside the USA and is the only study in UK HCWs. Our work focusses on the association of ethnicity with vaccine hesitancy, and we are the first study outside the USA to present results by ethnic group. The large number of ethnic minority HCWs in our study allows for examination of the outcome by more granular ethnicity categories than have previously been studied, allowing us to detect important differences in vaccine hesitancy levels within the broad White and Asian ethnic groupings. Our large sample size and the richness of our cohort study dataset allows us to control for many potential confounders in our multivariable analysis, and provide novel data on important potential drivers of hesitancy including discrimination, COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs, religion/religiosity and personality traits. Additionally, we combine quantitative with qualitative data providing a deeper understanding of the drivers of hesitancy and potential strategies to improve vaccine uptake in HCWs from ethnic minority communities.Implications of all the available evidence Around a quarter of UK healthcare workers reported SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy. In accordance with previous studies in other countries, we determined that female sex and lack of influenza vaccine in the previous season were important predictors of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy in UK HCWs, although in contrast to most studies in the published literature, after adjustment we do not demonstrate differences in hesitancy levels by occupational role. Importantly, previous literature provides conflicting evidence of the effects of age and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on vaccine hesitancy. In our study, younger HCWs and those with evidence of previous COVID-19 were more likely to be hesitant. This study provides novel data on increased hesitancy levels within Black Caribbean, Mixed White and Black Caribbean, Black African, Chinese, Pakistani and White Other ethnic groups. Mistrust (of vaccines in general, in SARS-CoV-2 vaccines specifically, in healthcare systems and research) and misinformation appear to be important drivers of hesitancy within HCWS in the UK. Our data indicate that despite facing an increased risk of COVID-19 compared to their White colleagues, UK HCWs from some ethnic minority groups continue to exhibit greater levels of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy. This study provides policy makers with evidence to inform strategies to improve uptake.

Ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy in United Kingdom healthcare workers: Results from the UK-REACH prospective nationwide cohort study

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Right-wing commentators are pretending that thousands of newly released emails from Anthony S. Fauci represent some kind of smoking gun against the government’s top infectious-disease expert, whom they have recently decided to try to destroy.Support our journalism. Subscribe today.arrow-rightI haven’t been nearly as excited by the emails, which are mostly full of mundane correspondence. But there’s at least one line in them that stands out.“I genuflect to no one but science and always, always speak my mind when it comes to public health,” the normally even-tempered scientist wrote in March of last year, to an epidemiologist who had accused a number of public health officials of appeasing the science-challenged President Donald Trump.Story continues below advertisementAt 80, Fauci has served in Republican and Democratic administrations since the Reagan era. And until recently, he has garnered widespread respect. The reason is in that email: He’s really not a political animal, but someone who is all about the science.

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10.1101/2021.04.26.21256110

Background The long-term sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in children remain poorly characterised. This study aimed to assess long-term outcomes in children previously hospitalised with Covid-19 and associated risk factors.Methods This is a prospective cohort study of children (≤18 years old) admitted with confirmed Covid-19 to Z.A. Bashlyaeva Children’s Municipal Clinical Hospital in Moscow, Russia. Children admitted to the hospital during the first wave of the pandemic, between April 2, 2020 and August 26, 2020, were included. Telephone interview using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Covid-19 Health and Wellbeing paediatric follow up survey. Persistent symptoms (>5 months) were further categorised by system(s) involved.Findings Overall, 518 of 853 (61%) of eligible children were available for the follow-up assessment and included in the study. Median age was 10.4 years (IQR, 3–15.2) and 270 (52.1%) were girls; median follow-up since hospital discharge was 256 (223-271) days. At the time of the follow-up interview 126 (24.3%) participants reported persistent symptoms among which fatigue (53, 10.7%), sleep disturbance (36, 6.9%,) and sensory problems (29, 5.6%) were the most common. Multiple symptoms were experienced by 44 (8.4%) participants. Risk factors for persistent symptoms were: age “6-11 years” (odds ratio 2.74 (95% confidence interval 1.37 to 5.75) and “12-18 years” (2.68, 1.41 to 5.4), and a history of allergic diseases (1.67, 1.04 to 2.67).Interpretation A quarter of children experienced persistent symptoms months after hospitalization with acute covid-19 infection, with almost one in ten experiencing multi-system involvement. Older age and allergic diseases were associated with higher risk of persistent symptoms at follow-up. Our findings highlight the need for replication and further investigation of potential mechanisms as well as clinical support to improve long term outcomes in children.Funding None.

Risk factors for long covid in previously hospitalised children using the ISARIC Global follow-up protocol: A prospective cohort study

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10.1038/s41562-021-01133-5

The ubiquity of social media use and the digital data traces it produces has triggered a potential methodological shift in the psychological sciences away from traditional, laboratory-based experimentation. The hope is that, by using computational social science methods to analyse large-scale observational data from social media, human behaviour can be studied with greater statistical power and ecological validity. However, current standards of null hypothesis significance testing and correlational statistics seem ill-suited to markedly noisy, high-dimensional social media datasets. We explore this point by probing the moral contagion phenomenon, whereby the use of moral-emotional language increases the probability of message spread. Through out-of-sample prediction, model comparisons and specification curve analyses, we find that the moral contagion model performs no better than an implausible XYZ contagion model. This highlights the risks of using purely correlational evidence from large observational datasets and sounds a cautionary note for psychology’s merge with big data. Download PDF

Reconsidering evidence of moral contagion in online social networks

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