Underlying Principles and Value of Projections

10.1001/jama.2020.6585

BackgroundA range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19.MethodsWe analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20–23, Feb 11–14, and March 10–13, 2020.FindingsCOVID-19 transmissibility measured by Rt has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34–53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated Rt of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an Rt of 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively.InterpretationOur study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30090-6

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an unprecedented challenge to humanity. Yet there seems to be substantial variation across individuals in knowledge and concern about COVID-19, as well as in the willingness to change behaviors in the face of the pandemic. Here, we investigated the roles of political ideology and cognitive sophistication in explaining these differences across the U.S.A. (N = 689), the U.K. (N = 642), and Canada (N = 644) using preregistered surveys conducted in late March, 2020. We found evidence that political polarization around COVID-19 risk perceptions, behavior change intentions, and misperceptions was greater in the U.S. than in the U.K.. However, Canada and the U.S. did not strongly differ in their level of polarization. Furthermore, in all three countries, cognitive sophistication (indexed by analytic thinking, numeracy, basic science knowledge, and bullshit skepticism) was a negative predictor of COVID-19 misperceptions – and in fact was a stronger predictor of misperceptions than political ideology (despite being unrelated to risk perceptions or behavior change intentions). Finally, we found no evidence that cognitive sophistication was associated with increased polarization for any of our COVID-19 measures. Thus, although there is some evidence for political polarization of COVID-19 in the U.S. and Canada (but not the U.K.), accurate beliefs about COVID-19 (albeit not intentions to act) are broadly associated with the quality of one’s reasoning skill regardless of political ideology or background polarization.

Predictors of attitudes and misperceptions about COVID-19 in Canada, the U.K., and the U.S.A.

10.31234/osf.io/zhjkp

New NIH Resource to Analyze COVID-19 Literature: The COVID-19 Portfolio Tool

In the past few months, the scientific community has ramped up research in response to the SARS‑CoV‑2 pandemic; dozens of peer-reviewed articles and preprints on this topic are being added to the literature every day (Figure 1). This rapidly expanding effort has created challenges for scientists and the medical community who need to analyze thousands of scholarly articles for insights on the virus.

Using Misinformation as a political weapon: COVID-19 and Bolsonaro in Brazil

With over 30,000 confirmed cases -as of April 16th- Brazil is currently the country most affected by COVID-19 in Latin America, and ranked 12th worldwide. Despite all evidence, a strong rhetoric undermining risks associated to COVID-19 has been endorsed at the highest levels of the Brazilian government, making President Jair Bolsonaro the leader of the “coronavirus-denial movement”. To support this strategy, different forms of misinformation and disinformation have been leveraged to lead a dangerous crusade against scientific and evidence-based recommendations. 

Social Scientists Scramble to Study Pandemic, In Real Time

If pandemic lockdowns have people feeling a bit like lab rats stuck in cages, in some ways that’s exactly what they are. As the coronavirus touches on virtually every part of life around the globe, social scientists are rushing to suck up real-time data on how people are responding to the unfolding pandemic. Economists are gathering data about supply chains. Political scientists are scrutinizing how government responses track with ideology. Psychologists are monitoring children in after-school programs. Behavioral scientists are surveying thousands of people to see how they respond to information in a crisis.

Rapid Registered Reports initiative aims to stop coronavirus researchers following false leads

Researchers can expect to wait days, rather than months, for the initial peer review.

10.1111/apa.15310

We thank dr. Ludvigsson (1) on his effort to improve knowledge on SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in children. In trying to understand the spread of the disease, one of the most notable features is that only a small number of severe SARS‐CoV‐2 infections have involved children. The huge age disparity in disease severity might be one of the most stringent fundamental knowledge gaps.

The role of children in the transmission of mild SARS‐CoV‐2 infection

The Italian outbreak of COVID‐19 cases is a public health emergency and there is a worldwide tremendous interest in the evaluation of the Italian epidemic evolution. Indeed, from February 2020, Italy is facing an explosion of COVID‐19 cases. In particular, the Italian observed case fatality rate (CFR) is much higher than the other countries. Recently, it has been hypothesized that the extensive number of intergenerational contacts – typical of Italian culture – could contribute to explain the high number of deaths observed in Italy. However, through an analysis performed for all the Italian regions, here it is shown that the deaths are localized in specific regions and that the CFRs of different Italian regions are overlapping with the rates of European countries. Moreover, through a correlation analyses between CFRs and different social habits, it is shown that no positive correlation is observed between social behaviours and CFRs. In conclusion, this analyses clearly rejects the possibility that social habits and intergenerational contacts can contribute to explain such a profound effect on the number of deaths observed in Italy during COVID‐19 outbreak and more effort should be addressed to evaluate the real amount of positive cases.

Case fatality rate analysis of Italian COVID‐19 outbreak

10.1002/jmv.25894

COVID-19 in the USA: a question of time

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30863-1

With more than 600 000 confirmed cases and close to 27 000 deaths, the USA has become the current centre of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Fewer than 3 months have elapsed since the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Washington State was confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Initially appearing slow moving and constrained in contrast to the scale of outbreaks in China and Italy, COVID-19 has given way to a nationwide public health catastrophe. For the first time in US history, a disaster declaration has been put in place for all 50 states and most US territories, and 95% of Americans are at least temporarily under some form of stay at home order. The increasing gravity of the situation in the USA has drawn public health and infectious disease experts, policy makers, and partisans across state and federal government into a fitful clash for control and direction of the COVID-19 response. Putting the USA at odds with the international community and global pandemic strategy efforts, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw funding from WHO (about 22% of its budget). Caught amid the chaos are the American people grappling with the fear of a deadly and poorly understood virus, conflicting messaging around their protection and safety, fear of financial fallout, absence of a cohesive national strategy, and volatile, incompetent leadership.

In 2019/2020, the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) resulted in rapid increases in infection rates as well as patient mortality. Treatment options addressing COVID‐19 included drug repurposing, investigational therapies such as remdesivir, and vaccine development. Combination therapy based on drug repurposing is among the most widely pursued of these efforts. Multi‐drug regimens are traditionally designed by selecting drugs based on their mechanism of action. This is followed by dose‐finding to achieve drug synergy. This approach is widely‐used for drug development and repurposing. Realizing synergistic combinations, however, is a substantially different outcome compared to globally optimizing combination therapy, which realizes the best possible treatment outcome by a set of candidate therapies and doses toward a disease indication. To address this challenge, the results of Project IDentif.AI (Identifying Infectious Disease Combination Therapy with Artificial Intelligence) are reported. An AI‐based platform is used to interrogate a massive 12 drug/dose parameter space, rapidly identifying actionable combination therapies that optimally inhibit A549 lung cell infection by vesicular stomatitis virus within three days of project start. Importantly, a sevenfold difference in efficacy is observed between the top‐ranked combination being optimally and sub‐optimally dosed, demonstrating the critical importance of ideal drug and dose identification. This platform is disease indication and disease mechanism‐agnostic, and potentially applicable to the systematic N‐of‐1 and population‐wide design of highly efficacious and tolerable clinical regimens. This work also discusses key factors ranging from healthcare economics to global health policy that may serve to drive the broader deployment of this platform to address COVID‐19 and future pandemics.

Project IDentif.AI: Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Rapidly Optimize Combination Therapy Development for Infectious Disease Intervention

10.1002/adtp.202000034

The initial estimates of the case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from China and the published modelled estimates both show a very strong age-dependence.1The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology TeamVital surveillances: the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)—China, 2020.China CDC Weekly. 2020; 2: 113-122Google Scholar,  2Verity R Okell LC Dorigatti I et al.Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.Lancet Infect Dis. 2020; (published online March 30.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7Google Scholar In the UK, this pattern has been interpreted in public health terms as advice to cocoon (ie, isolate) those older than 70 years and those with underlying health conditions—but is this the right age cutoff?Applying the infection fatality rate ratios from new estimates (which assume a constant attack rate by age) to the age structure of the population of the UK,3Office for National StatisticsNational population projections: 2018-based.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2018basedDate: Oct 21, 2019Date accessed: March 31, 2020Google Scholar we can see how many deaths we would expect in each age group if there were 1 million infections (table). This shows that 70% of all deaths are in the over-70-years age group, so it is important that they are protected. However, nearly two thirds (64%) of the remaining deaths occur in the 60–69 years age group. This age group is not being particularly protected and includes many who are working on the frontline. Indeed, health-care workers have even been encouraged to come out of retirement to assist.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30311-X

Protecting workers aged 60–69 years from COVID-19

As a service to the global R&D community, Science|Business has compiled this database of funding opportunities. This is what we have found so far. Users are encouraged to let us know of funding calls that could be incorporated into the database. Please email all suggestions to info@sciencebusiness.net. The database will be updated daily. For rapid news about COVID-19, see our live blog.

Science|Business Database: Coronavirus Funding Opportunities

How do people search for, avoid and share information during COVID-19?

There seems to be a sweet spot in getting important updates on changes in public policies and behavioral recommendations; and taking breaks from watching, listening to or reading news stories to maintain mental health. One way to strike this balance would be to avoid information as soon as it becomes redundant in one’s information environment but not sooner. Here, we seek to link (a) data on peoples information environments (headlines from the past weeks including both accurate and fake news) to (b) their individual information search, avoidance and sharing behavior; as well as the accuracy of the information they have (e.g., which behavioral recommendations to follow). Which topics do people seek out, actively avoid and share with others? Which sources do people turn to in getting updates on COVID-19? How much time do they spend on getting and engaging with this information? Do people have the feeling that they actively search for information or that information is ‚imposed’ on them (i.e., the information is difficult to avoid)? Is information avoided because the information is becoming redundant; or because people seek to regulate their emotions (e.g., anxiety of contracting the disease or being afraid of bad news)?

Our Work on COVID-19

Facebook Data for Good has a number of tools and initiatives that can help organizations respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes: Publicly available tools: (1) High Resolution Population Density Maps and (2) CrowdTangle COVID-19 Live Displays Tools for nonprofits & researchers: (1) Disease Prevention Maps and (2) Social Connectedness Index Facebook is also a part of the COVID-19 Mobility Data Network, a network of infectious disease epidemiologists at universities around the world working with technology companies to use aggregated mobility data to support the COVID-19 response. 

Behavioural science research for guiding societies out of lockdown

The EU has published its guidance document for the gradual exit from containment measures over the next few months. A key basic principle, according to the document, is that "action should be based on science and have public health at its centre" -whereby " the available scientific evidence must inform as much as possible Member States’ decisions and Member States should be ready to revise their approaches as more scientific evidence appears. "This post seeks to identify areas from the document where behavioural science could and should contribute to policy making:

Collective Intelligence and COVID-19

1Joint European Roadmap towards lifting COVID-19 containment measuresAt theirmeeting on 26 March 20201,theMembers of the European Council committed to do everything that is necessary to protect the EU’s citizens and overcome the crisis while preserving the European values and way of life. Beyond theurgency of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate consequences, the Members of the European Council called for preparing the measures necessary to get Europe’s societies and economies back to a normal functioning and to sustainable growth, integrating inter alia the green transition and the digital transformation, and drawing all lessons from the crisis. The joint European Roadmap towards lifting COVID-19 containment measures, presentedby the President of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, responds to the European Council Members’ call for an exit strategy that is coordinated with Member States and that will prepare the ground for a comprehensive recovery plan and unprecedented investment.

ENENJoint European Roadmap towards lifting COVID-19 containment measures

The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19

We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit-cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.

COVID-19 and the coming epidemic in US immigration detention centres

Individuals in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention are at risk from serious consequences resulting from the rapid spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and inadequate access to appropriate medical care. This situation represents a moral and public health imperative for rapid action by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to mitigate the human toll of the pandemic.SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has been rapidly spreading across geopolitical, social, and economic boundaries around the world. In the USA, a rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in every state of the country has resulted in a growing number of hospitalisations, admissions to intensive care units, and deaths in specific age groups and in many people with underlying medical conditions.1

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30295-4

Multidisciplinary research priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic: a call for action for mental health science

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a profound effect on all aspects of society, including mental health and physical health. We explore the psychological, social, and neuroscientific effects of COVID-19 and set out the immediate priorities and longer-term strategies for mental health science research. These priorities were informed by surveys of the public and an expert panel convened by the UK Academy of Medical Sciences and the mental health research charity, MQ: Transforming Mental Health, in the first weeks of the pandemic in the UK in March, 2020. We urge UK research funding agencies to work with researchers, people with lived experience, and others to establish a high level coordination group to ensure that these research priorities are addressed, and to allow new ones to be identified over time. The need to maintain high-quality research standards is imperative. International collaboration and a global perspective will be beneficial. An immediate priority is collecting high-quality data on the mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across the whole population and vulnerable groups, and on brain function, cognition, and mental health of patients with COVID-19. There is an urgent need for research to address how mental health consequences for vulnerable groups can be mitigated under pandemic conditions, and on the impact of repeated media consumption and health messaging around COVID-19. Discovery, evaluation, and refinement of mechanistically driven interventions to address the psychological, social, and neuroscientific aspects of the pandemic are required. Rising to this challenge will require integration across disciplines and sectors, and should be done together with people with lived experience. New funding will be required to meet these priorities, and it can be efficiently leveraged by the UK's world-leading infrastructure. This Position Paper provides a strategy that may be both adapted for, and integrated with, research efforts in other countries.

10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30168-1

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30298-X

COVID-19: endgames

As of April 14, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has killed more than 120 000 people and led to nearly 2 million confirmed infections worldwide. At least a third of the global population is in some form of lockdown, treading the fine line between health services overwhelmed with rapidly rising infections and an economic recession with its own detrimental health consequences. Although this surreal situation might seem like a plot from the Avengers franchise, the hard reality is that the selfless actions of health-care workers will not alone restore the world to normality. Ending the COVID-19 pandemic will take many more months, if not years, so it is time to revisit what we know and make some difficult choices about mitigating subsequent infection waves.

A new DnaNudge Lab-in-Cartridge test is beginning evaluation on patients – requiring no lab and significantly reducing waits for results.

Imperial researchers develop lab-free COVID-19 test with results in less than an hour

The major objective of the DIH-HERO project (Digital Innovation Hubs in Healthcare Robotics) is to establish a broad-based pan-European network of Digital Innovation Hubs specialized in Healthcare Robotics. The network will focus on providing services which connect business and healthcare stakeholders in developing innovative products and services for the healthcare market. It will establish channels between healthcare and technology providers that reduce barriers to adoption and create strong mutual understanding between robotics technology innovators and healthcare professionals. Each hub partner delivers both technical and medical expertise to the DIH-HERO consortium through their pre-existing operational relationships with hospitals and healthcare facilities. This initiative unites expertise in business development, access to finance and innovation to robotics technology and healthcare expertise in a network of hubs that will connect and stimulate robotics innovation in all aspects of healthcare. DIH-HEROis built on concrete plans to sustain the network beyond the time span of the project and to provide a long-term network for innovators in healthcare. The network of Digital Innovation Hubs created and supported by DIH-HERO will ensure that robotics innovation in healthcare is accelerated, that SME can develop global reach and that the advantages of robotics-based healthcare can be propagated across Europe.

`Fighting COVID-19 Open Call 2020 under the DIH-HERO Innovation ActionApplicant guide

Solar-powered hand disinfection station beats 500 other ideas to win Global Hack event

Hackathons mobilise start-ups to combat COVID-19

Call for Expert Collaborators: COVID-19 Response

Crowdhelix is seeking researchers & innovators worldwide with a strong track record of excellence in fields relevant to the global effort to tackle the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.We are offering free access to Crowdhelix, our online Open Innovation platform, to experts seeking to collaborate across continents and disciplines in developing R&D funding proposals to help tackle COVID-19. So far, we have been pleased to welcome over 140 such experts to the Crowdhelix platform. To register, please submit the form at the bottom of the page.

APS Backgrounder Series: Psychological Science and COVID-19: Working Remotely

Expert commentary from Tammy Allen, Distinguished University Professor in the department of psychology at the University of South Florida. Her interests include work-family issues, career development, and occupational health.

Standardizing and Benchmarking Crisis-related Social Media Datasets for Humanitarian Information Processing

Time-critical analysis of social media streams is important for humanitarian organizations to plan rapid response during disasters. The crisis informatics research community has developed several techniques and systems to process and classify big crisis data on social media. However, due to a variety of different datasets used in the literature, it is not possible to compare the results and to measure the progress made towards better models for crisis classification. In this work, we attempt to bridge this gap by providing a standard crisis-related dataset. We consolidate labels of 8 annotated data sources and provide 166.1k and 141.5k tweets for informativeness and humanitarian classification tasks. The consolidation also result in larger dataset size which is helpful in training stronger models. We also provide baseline results using CNN and BERT models. We make the dataset available at this https URL

2004.06774v1

WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to Covid-19

Herd immunity hopes dealt blow by report suggesting only 2%-3% of people have been infected

Twenty-one new studies into the novel coronavirus have been funded by the UK government, including the first clinical drug trial in primary care, vaccine and therapy development, and studying epidemiology, disease transmission, behavioural interventions and policy approaches to COVID-19.    This second round of projects receive £14.1 million as part of the £24.6 million rapid research response funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), and by the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).     These projects build on the UK’s world-class expertise and capability in global heath and infectious disease that has already shaped our understanding of the pandemic and is informing measures to tackle it. They support the UK government’s efforts to save lives, protect the vulnerable and support the NHS so it can help those who need it the most.  

COVID-19 therapy, vaccine, epidemiology and policy development research boosted by twenty-one new projects

This policy brief discusses the role of testing for COVID-19 as part of any plan to lift confinement restrictions and prepare for a possible new wave of viral infections. If all confinement restrictions are lifted before a vaccine or effective treatments are developed without other measures to suppress new infections, the infection rate is expected to rebound rapidly. Crucially, quick suppression of infections requires testing more people to identify who is infected; tracking them to make sure they do not spread the disease further; and tracing with whom they have been in contact. This brief discusses how testing strategies can be used to achieve three main goals: 1)suppressing the resurgence of local outbreaks; 2)identifying people who have developed some form of immunity and can safely return to work; and 3)gaining intelligence on the evolution of the epidemic, including on when a threshold for herd immunity has been reached. The brief discusses whattests can be used for each goal, as well as practical implementation issues with testing strategies, including the opportunities and risks of using digital tools in this context.

Testing for COVID-19: A way to lift confinement restrictions

Will the cure be worse than the disease? This question received sharp attention last week when Fraser Nelson, editor of the conservative-leaning magazine The Spectator and writing in The Daily Telegraph, reported a leaked UK Government document revealing that long-term avoidable deaths from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown could reach 150 000. That figure was, he suggested, far higher than the number of deaths expected from COVID-19. These “lockdown victims”, as he called them, are now a major concern for government. The “social damage” resulting from efforts to control the pandemic has split Prime Minister Boris Johnson's cabinet. And with Johnson still recovering from his own bout of infection, there is no clear direction from government about how to resolve the trade-off between saving lives and making money. Matt Hancock, the UK's Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, rejected the figure of 150 000. But he and other government ministers acknowledge that the economy is under pressure and may contract by as much as 14% over the next quarter. So what are the prospects for the economy and how should governments worldwide balance the alleged conflict between health and wealth?

Offline: CoHERE—a call for a post-pandemic health strategy

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30895-3

Universal weekly testing as the UK COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy

The British public have been offered alternating periods of lockdown and relaxation of restrictions as part of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown exit strategy.1Scientific Advisory Group for EmergenciesSPI-M-O: consensus view on behavioural and social interventions.https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873729/06-spi-m-o-consensus-view-on-behavioural-and-social-interventions.pdfDate: March 16, 2020Date accessed: April 17, 2020Google Scholar Extended periods of lockdown will increase economic and social damage, and each relaxation will almost certainly trigger a further epidemic wave of deaths. These cycles will kill tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of people before a vaccine becomes available, with the most disadvantaged groups experiencing the greatest suffering.There is an alternative strategy: universal repeated testing.2Peto J Covid-19 mass testing facilities could end the epidemic rapidly.BMJ. 2020; 368m1163Google Scholar We recommend evaluation of weekly severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antigen testing of the whole population in an entire city as a demonstration site (preferably several towns and cities, if possible), with strict household quarantine after a positive test. Quarantine would end when all residents of the household test negative at the same time; everyone else in the city can resume normal life, if they choose to. This testing programme should be assessed for feasibility in one or more cities with 200 000–300 000 people. Such a feasibility study should begin as soon as possible and continue after the current lockdown ends, when the infection rate will be fairly low but rising. The rate at which the number of infections then rises or falls, compared with the rest of the UK, will be apparent within a few weeks. A decision to proceed with national roll-out can then be made, beginning in high-risk areas and limited only by reagent supplies. If the epidemic is controlled, hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved, intensive care units will no longer be overloaded, and the adverse effects of lockdown on mental ill health and unemployment will end.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30936-3

Can a virus undermine human rights?

Exceptional situations require exceptional measures. Faced with the magnitude of the health risks caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, national governments have had to quickly decide whether or not to declare a state of emergency to curb the spread of the disease.Where a health threat constitutes a danger for the whole population, then the suspension of ordinary law is legitimate to increase the government's capacity to protect society. A state of necessity justifies the state of emergency. This state provides a legal framework for the limitation of individual freedom during a short period of time, such as the freedom of movement, freedom of assembly, and entrepreneurial freedom. This state enables governments to requisition goods and services, to shut down public or private facilities, and to take binding measures that would normally be seen as infringements of basic rights. Health security becomes a matter of public security.

10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30092-X

Answering the right questions for policymakers on COVID-19

Effectively translating science into both operational and policy action is a nearly universal challenge;1Getz WM Marshall CR Carlson CJ et al.Making ecological models adequate.Ecol Lett. 2018; 21: 153-166Google Scholar,  2Rivers C Chretien JP Riley S et al.Using “outbreak science” to strengthen the use of models during epidemics.Nat Commun. 2019; 10: 1-3Google Scholar in an emergency, aligning the interests of scientists and policy makers can be especially difficult. In an effort to minimise uncertainty and harness existing knowledge, scientists often focus on predictive problems that are broad in scale with quantifiable uncertainty; more often than not, this approach can leave policy makers without clear answers for high-consequence decisions that have to be made quickly, regardless of the available evidence base.In our experience, this mismatch is most acute when crisis responders are seeking support with a rapid turnaround for decisions on local, action-oriented problems. During a hurricane, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the US National Hurricane Center produce forecasts of storm severity and trajectory, using atmospheric models written in deeply technical coding languages and run on supercomputer clusters. The National Hurricane Center and others have worked to develop user-friendly and public-ready methods to communicate those outputs for key decisions around evacuation and other response actions. We have deployed to the US National Response Coordination Center for these events and have been part of the integrated teams that translate these results into operational reality. From our experience, the challenge—and the mismatch between available and missing data—is in the details. A specialist deployed to an airbase in the middle of the country, who needs to know how many pallets of water to load onto the plane on her tarmac, has to choose a number with or without expert input. A Red Cross community manager tasked with taking over an elementary school in Florida, USA, to house those displaced needs to know how many cots to set up, how many meals she will need to prepare, and which roads will still be open to get the deliveries in.

10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30191-1

Science at home

The Royal Society supports teachers during this challenging time and has collated a number of resources, activities and videos, that they may wish to share with parents, to support learning from home. It is important that parents follow the guidance from teaching staff and recognise that they are not expected to replace their expertise; it may be helpful for parents to set goals for their children to reach, create routines and, for younger children, focus on promoting reading and numeracy skills in particular. 

An expert in rural health advises governments to take a systematic approach to tackling the coronavirus crisis rather than focusing solely on urban areas. Peter Ranscombe reports.One of the most striking images of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic came after India's government initiated a 3-week lockdown on March 24, 2020, forcing millions of migrant workers to flood out of its cities on foot and return to their homes in the countryside, amid promises of financial help for casual labourers. Days later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi used his weekly radio address to beg for forgiveness from the poorest members of society, who were being left without jobs and food due to the shutdown.

Rural areas at risk during COVID-19 pandemic

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30301-7

RT @paimadhu: I suspect most folks rushing to pre-prints with correlations between #Covid_19 & a host of variables (e.g. BCG, malaria endem…

Conspiracy theories increase the likelihood that people won’t follow expert advice.

Coronavirus conspiracy theories are dangerous – here’s how to stop them spreading

A bioweapon or a hoax? The link between distinct conspiracy beliefs about the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and pandemic behavior

Exploring the association of distinct conspiracy beliefs (COVID-19 is a hoax; SARS-Cov-2 was human-made) with pandemic-related behavior.

10.31234/osf.io/ye3ma

A blog by Elizabeth Denham, Information Commissioner

Blog: Combatting COVID-19 through data: some considerations for privacy

10.7554/eLife.57892

Scientific conferences and meetings have an important role in research, but they also suffer from a number of disadvantages: in particular, they can have a massive carbon footprint, they are time-consuming, and the high costs involved in attending can exclude many potential participants. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the cancellation of many conferences, forcing the scientific community to explore online alternatives. Here, we report on our experiences of organizing an online neuroscience conference, neuromatch, that attracted some 3000 participants and featured two days of talks, debates, panel discussions, and one-on-one meetings facilitated by a matching algorithm. By offering most of the benefits of traditional conferences, several clear advantages, and with fewer of the downsides, we feel that online conferences have the potential to replace many legacy conferences.

Point of View: Improving on legacy conferences by moving online

[Jdm-society] Decision on re-opening economies

Previous message (by thread): [Jdm-society] Decision on re-opening economies Next message (by thread): [Jdm-society] Data Colada Launches Online Seminar Series on Friday April 24th Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] Here are the collected responses to my question. Some folks make it easy to identify themselves with their answers, but I wanted to be uniform in not listing names. If you want to be put in touch with a particular respondent, let me know and I'll see if they want to connect. best, Dan

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has not ruled out making the Government's coronavirus tracing app compulsory for all Australians.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer doesn't rule out forcing Australians to download the Government's coronavirus tracing app

Should scientists infect healthy people with the coronavirus to test vaccines?

Radical proposal to conduct ‘human challenge’ studies could dramatically speed up vaccine research.

10.1038/d41586-020-00927-3

Are "immunity certificates" actually feasible? Thoughts from an expert on viral antibodies.

During my PhD, I studied antibody responses against Hanta, Ebola, and Flaviviruses. And I've seen how much this topic of antibody testing and "immunity certificates" has been bouncing around here! So I figured cross-posting this explainer could be helpful.Never before have doctors and nurses needed more to remember the fundamentals of True and False Negatives/Positives, and Positive & Negative Predictive Value.It's long, but worth the read! I promise!

Antibody tests are coming online. Never before have humans needed to understand Bayes rule more. Let's talk about why it's critical NOT to assume you are immune to covid-19 when you have a positive antibody test. Seriously, people need to understand this to prevent many deaths.

Several companies have tests of varying quality, but Cellex makes a FDA-approved antibody test. The goal is to test for immunity due to prior exposure rather than an active infection. Cellex's test has a "sensitivity" of 93.8% and a "specificity" of 95.6%. Lets interpret this

COVID-19: Nesta’s response

We recognise that the outbreak of COVID-19 is an exceptional event that is already having an immediate impact on many of the social enterprises, charities, local authorities and schools we support with grant funding.

Ergebnisse aus dem wiederholten querschnittlichen Monitoring von Wissen, Risikowahrnehmung, Schutzverhalten und Vertrauen während des aktuellen COVID-19 Ausbruchsgeschehens

COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO)

It was a privilege to chair the @BPSOfficial #COVID19 Coordinating Group today. The challenge is significant but the breadth of psychological skills & knowledge within BPS gives us a real capacity, & duty, to play a major role in tackling the pandemic & its impact on society(1/2)