https://web.archive.org/web/20240712174702/https://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2024/07/11/limiting-ais-imagination/ When 18m ago I played with the temperature (I don't remember how or what but it was an actual setting in the model, probably something from huggingface) what stood out for me was that at 0 it was immediately obvious it was automated, and it yielded the same answer to the same prompt repeatedly as it stuck to the likeliest outcome for each next token. At higher temps it would get wilder, and it struck me as easier to project a human having written it. Since then I almost regard the temp setting as the fakery/projectionlikelihood level. Although it doesn't take much to trigger projection, as per Eliza. l n:: temp v modellen maakt projecte mogelijk

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projection example of recent energy trends

-absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projections - Energy growth has typically been 2–3% per year since early 1900's. - This is approximately equivalent to 10x each century - Present-day energy output is 18 TW and extrapolates to - - approx.100 TW in 2100, - approx. 1,000 TW in 2200, etc. - In 400 years, from today, we would exceed the total solar power incident on Earth - In 1300 years from today, we would exceed the entire output of the Sun in all directions - In 2400 years from today, we would exceed the energy output of all 100 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy - This last jump is made impossible by the fact that even light cannot cross the galaxy in fewer than 100,000 years. - Hence, physics puts a hard limit on how long our energy growth enterprise could possibly continue

for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends

absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends - At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. - But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. - Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription.

https://rhg.com/research/global-fossil-fuel-demand/

for - comparison - mental vs physical causation - adjacency - Michael Levin's definition of intelligence - Sheldrake's mental vs physical causation

key insight - comparison - mental vs physical causation - mental causation works from virtual futures to past - physical causation works from past to future - this is an interesting way of seeing things

adjacency - between - direction of mental vs physical causation - Michael Levin's definition of intelligence (adopting WIlliam James's idea) and cognition and cognitive light cones of living organisms:: - having a goal - having autonomy and agency to reach that goal - adjacency statement - Levin adopts a definition of cognition from scientific predecessors that relate to goal activity. - When an organism chooses one specific behavioral trajectory over all other possible ones in order to reach a goal - this is none other than choosing a virtual future that projects back to the present - In our species, innovation and design is based on this future-to-present backwards projection

Die International Energy Agency prognostiziert zum ersten Mal, dass der Verbrauch fossiler Energien vor 2030 seinen Höhepunkt überschreiten wird. Die voraussichtliche Abnahme sei aber bei weitem nicht ausreichend, um das 1,5°-Ziel zu erreichen. IEA-Chef Fatih Birol kündigte in der Financial Times die Kernaussagen des nächsten World Energy Outlook-Berichts der IEA an. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/beginning-of-the-end-of-fossil-fuel-era-approaching-says-iea

• for: projection, biases, bias, perspectival knowing, indyweb, tacit to explicit, explication, misunderstanding
• comment
  • The "why" is invisible.
  • It is the thoughts in the private worlds of the other.
  • It is only our explication through language or other means that makes public our private world
  • We construct meaning in the world.
  • Our meaningverse is our construction. BUT it is a cultural construction,
    • it was constructed by all the meaning learned from others, especially beginning with the most significant other, our mother.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5XqqylBW7M

Building up Christopher Nolan's IMAX 70mm version of Oppenheimer.

IMAX splices use zigzag cuts in the film to create more surface length to tape the film ends together.

Christopher Nolan now holds the record for the longest IMAX film ever made. IMAX needed to extend the length of their platters to accommodate his prints of Oppenheimer for release in 2023.

not just trained with, also trained by. is it fully transparent though? Perhaps from the trainers/tools standpoint, but users are likely to fall for the tool abstracting its origins away, ELIZA style, and project agency and thus morality on it.

I really liked the symbolism used here. Even if one had trouble picturing just how distorted a map has to become in order to create a flat image from a round surface, I think we could all picture a peeled orange, and how little the peel would resemble the original shape if flattened out on the table. How could we create a rectangular peel from what was taken off? Right away, we're confronted with the difficulty map-makers experience when trying to convert the world onto a map. It's not a perfect analogy, but the comparison between the Earth's surface and an orange peel certainly helps us visualize the problem.

ReconfigBehSci. (2022, March 6). RT @JPWeiland: BA.2 projections in the US: Coming off of the massive omicron wave (Rt=0.64) will provide a lot of immunity to restrict B… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1500489703472222208

Home - COVID 19 scenario model hub. (n.d.). Retrieved July 5, 2021, from https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/

Western News—Nearly 40,000 kids in the U.S. who lost a parent to COVID-19 need immediate support. (2021, April 5). Western News. https://news.westernu.ca/2021/04/covid-19-parent-loss/

Kidman, R., Margolis, R., Smith-Greenaway, E., & Verdery, A. M. (2021). Estimates and Projections of COVID-19 and Parental Death in the US. JAMA Pediatrics. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.0161

Cohen, A.-L. (n.d.). Perspective | ‘Mental time travel’ is one of many imaginative ways we can cope with the pandemic. Washington Post. Retrieved March 8, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-cope-imagine-mental-transport/2021/03/05/a5fc6dde-7b85-11eb-a976-c028a4215c78_story.html

Biggs, A. T., & Littlejohn, L. F. (2021). Revisiting the initial COVID-19 pandemic projections. The Lancet Microbe, 2(3), e91–e92. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00029-X

Imperial projects global coronavirus trajectory with simulation tool | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Imperial News. Retrieved 19 February 2021, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/210053/imperial-projects-coronavirus-trajectory-countries-with/

Donsimoni. J. R., Glawion. R., Plachter. B., Walde. K., (2020). Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany. Institute of labor economics. Retrieved from: https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13094/

Joshua Salomon on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SalomonJA/status/1302767010367983616

COVID-19. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

COVID Projections Tracker. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://www.covid-projections.com/

Burgess, M. G., Langendorf, R. E., Ippolito, T., & Pielke, R. (2020). Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/vndqr

Richardson, S., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2020, April 12). Coronavirus statistics: What can we trust and what should we ignore? The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore

COVID-19 Modeling: Italy

Jewell, N. P., Lewnard, J. A., & Jewell, B. L. (2020). Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Underlying Principles and Value of Projections. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6585

Being able to picture the person in a physical context in which one has walked.