How Many Lives Are Lost Due to the Precautionary Principle?

Offline: COVID-19—bewilderment and candour

Réalisée depuis début mai auprès d’un échantillon représentatif de la population vaudoise, l’étude SérocoViD vise à comprendre la manière dont le coronavirus, qui provoque la COVID-19, se transmet au sein de la population, afin de guider les autorités politiques et de santé publique pour prendre les mesures adéquates de lutte contre l’épidémie.

COVID-19: 7% des vaudois·es infecté·e·s

10.1016/j.socscimed.2004.11.031

Since the emergence of HIV/AIDS in the 1980s, social scientists and sociologists of health and illness have been exploring the metaphorical framing of this infectious disease in its social context. Many have focused on the militaristic language used to report and explain this illness, a type of language that has permeated discourses of immunology, bacteriology and infection for at least a century. In this article, we examine how language and metaphor were used in the UK media's coverage of another previously unknown and severe infectious disease: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). SARS offers an opportunity to explore the cultural framing of a less extraordinary epidemic disease. It therefore provides an analytical counter-weight to the very extensive body of interpretation that has developed around HIV/AIDS. By analysing the total reporting on SARS of five major national newspapers during the epidemic of spring 2003, we investigate how the reporting of SARS in the UK press was framed, and how this related to media, public and governmental responses to the disease. We found that, surprisingly, militaristic language was largely absent, as was the judgemental discourse of plague. Rather, the main conceptual metaphor used was SARS as a killer. SARS as a killer was a single unified entity, not an army or force. We provide some tentative explanations for this shift in linguistic framing by relating it to local political concerns, media cultures, and spatial factors.

Disease metaphors in new epidemics: the UK media framing of the 2003 SARS epidemic

Public trust in the authorities has been recognised in risk research as a crucial component of effective and efficient risk management. But in a pandemic, where the primary responsibility of risk management is not centralised within institutional actors but defused across society, trust can become a double-edged sword. Under these conditions, public trust based on a perception of government competence, care and openness may in fact lead people to underestimate risks and thus reduce their belief in the need to take individual action to control the risks. In this paper, we examine the interaction between trust in government, risk perceptions and public compliance in Singapore in the period between January and April 2020. Using social media tracking and online focus group discussions, we present a preliminary assessment of public responses to government risk communication and risk management measures. We highlight the unique deployment of risk communication in Singapore based on the narrative of ‘defensive pessimism’ to heighten rather than lower levels perceived risk. But the persistence of low public risk perceptions and concomitant low levels of compliance with government risk management measures bring to light the paradox of trust. This calls for further reflection on another dimension of trust which focuses on the role of the public; and further investigation into other social and cultural factors that may have stronger influence over individual belief in the need to take personal actions to control the risks.

10.1080/13669877.2020.1756386

The paradox of trust: perceived risk and public compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore

10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054

We review the meaning of the concept of framing, approaches to studying framing, and the effects of framing on public opinion. After defining framing and framing effects, we articulate a method for identifying frames in communication and a psychological model for understanding how such frames affect public opinion. We also discuss the relationship between framing and priming, outline future research directions, and describe the normative implications of framing.

Framing Theory

10.31234/osf.io/84xju

During coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, healthcare professionals were particularly at high-risk of developing symptoms of mental health problems due to being on the frontline in the battle against COVID-19. This study examined the mediating roles of resilience and coronavirus fear in the relationship between perceived risk and mental health problems among healthcare professionals including doctors and nurses who were actively treating patients confirmed with COVID-19. We recruited 204 healthcare professionals (50% females) with a mean age of 32.92 years (SD=7.01). Results showed that perceived risk and coronavirus fear positively predicted depression, anxiety, and stress while resilience negatively predicted those mental health problems. Coronavirus fear mediated the relationship between perceived risk and resilience, depression, anxiety, and stress. Additionally, resilience mitigated the effect of coronavirus fear on depression, anxiety, and stress. This study is among the first indicating the importance of resilience and fear as critical mechanism that explain the relationship between perceived risk and mental health problems among health professionals directly caring for COVID-19 patients.

Perceived Risk and Mental Health Problems Among Healthcare Professionals During COVID-19 Pandemic: Exploring the Mediating Effects of Resilience and Coronavirus Fear

Almost all scientists briefing on background disagreed fundamentally with herd immunity & the lockdown delay; but almost none in a senior position would go on the record. Many who disagreed privately towed the line in public. Unravelling this dysfunction can’t happen quick enough https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1253973922053316610

10.25561/77482

Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

American officials were alarmed by fake text messages and social media posts that said President Trump was locking down the country. Experts see a convergence with Russian tactics.

Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since spread worldwide. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (1). That same day, the first confirmed COVID-19–associated fatality occurred in New York City (NYC). To identify confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths, defined as those occurring in persons with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, on March 13, 2020, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) initiated a daily match between all deaths reported to the DOHMH electronic vital registry system (eVital) (2) and laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19. Deaths for which COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, or an equivalent term is listed on the death certificate as an immediate, underlying, or contributing cause of death, but that do not have laboratory-confirmation of COVID-19 are classified as probable COVID-19–associated deaths. As of May 2, a total of 13,831 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths, and 5,048 probable COVID-19–associated deaths were recorded in NYC (3). Counting only confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths, however, likely underestimates the number of deaths attributable to the pandemic. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths might not include deaths among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not access diagnostic testing, tested falsely negative, or became infected after testing negative, died outside of a health care setting, or for whom COVID-19 was not suspected by a health care provider as a cause of death. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths also does not include deaths that are not directly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The objective of this report is to provide an estimate of all-cause excess deaths that have occurred in NYC in the setting of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death. Estimation of all-cause excess deaths is used as a nonspecific measure of the severity or impact of pandemics (4) and public health emergencies (5). Reporting of excess deaths might provide a more accurate measure of the impact of the pandemic.

10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999

10.1038/d41586-020-01685-y

Influential model judged reproducible — although software engineers called its code 'horrible' and 'a buggy mess'.

Critiqued coronavirus simulation gets thumbs up from code-checking efforts

Live Q&A on the use of masks during #COVID19! #AskWHO

Pleased to announce our newest Research Tool Report on First View: "http://PsychTable.org: A tool for biopolitical researchers, policymakers, & citizens" by Glass & Balachandran | @PsychTable @CUP_PoliSci @glenngeher @ml_fisher #evolution #research @tjw51

I recorded a 16-minute talk on the scientific process, science communication, and how preprints fit in to the information ecosystem around COVID-19. It’s called, “How we knowCOVID-19, preprints, and the information ecosystem.” The video is on YouTube here, also embedded below, and the slides, with references, are up here.

Talk: How we know: COVID-19, preprints, and the information ecosystem

10.31234/osf.io/4zr25

Addressing mental health challenges related to the COVID-19 outbreak can be facilitated through research that characterizes the needs of subpopulations and identifies specific pathways to targeted intervention. Toward this aim, we examined the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on anxiety symptoms among college students (N = 487) and explored the relative impact of coping strategies using a psychological network approach, which models complex interactions to identify potential pathways to symptom-level intervention. Although students showed several significant fluctuations in pre- to post-outbreak anxiety symptom levels measured with the GAD-7, anxiety network connectivity was not significantly different across timepoints. Consistent with hypotheses, the post-outbreak symptom+coping network revealed that increased use of the adaptive coping strategies of acceptance, behavioral activation, and values-based action was associated with lower levels of fear, restlessness, and trouble relaxing. The symptom+coping network also revealed that increased use of the maladaptive strategies of excessive cleaning, reassurance seeking, and excessive checking was associated with higher levels of irritability and fear. Surprisingly, the use of reappraisal and avoidance, two strategies with putatively opposing adaptive value, highly overlapped and showed positive associations with fear and irritability. These symptom+coping associations can guide the assessment and treatment of anxiety in the face of COVID-19.

Psychological Networks can Identify Potential Pathways to Specific Intervention Targets for Anxiety in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

10.31234/osf.io/d5wph

The COVID-19 outbreak and the restrictions that have been enforced by the health authorities are having a profound psychological impact on the population. Many people, including the students, faced forced modifications to their daily lives and this prompted the need for scalable strategies to promote resilience. We designed an online community intervention for psychology students and recent alumni aimed to promote functional coping strategies through openness and cognitive flexibility. This psycho-educational intervention was delivered through a private group on social media (Facebook) and it involved the publication of exercises and quick lectures. Contents were posted regularly and people from the community were invited to share their comments. The posts included stimuli that promote open and flexible reflections on the current situation. The overall aim of this group was a cognitive reframing on the epidemic effects, promoting creative and flexible thinking. We ran a thematic analysis of the interactions, and we collected qualitative feedback at the end of the intervention. The participants’ comments dealt with changes in their perspectives, sharing discomfort, encouragement and support, and building a sense of community. Post-intervention comments were highly satisfied and confirmed the helpfulness of the stimuli to promote flexibility and openness, eventually helping to manage the negative emotions related to the COVID-19 outbreak. This study provides preliminary evidence that an online psycho-educational community stimulating flexibility and openness can help to reframe the negative psychological impact of the outbreak, improving their management.

Reframing the psychological impact of the COVID-19 outbreak through a social media community for students

10.31234/osf.io/w4d5u

This preprint is a 1000-word Viewpoint that explores methodological considerations of the COVID-19 pandemic for immunopsychiatry. It has been accepted for publication in Brain, Behavior, and Immunity for a special issue on Immunopsychiatry and COVID-19. Specifically, we discuss the treatment of COVID-19 as a confounding versus mediating variable in immunopsychiatric research. We leverage simulated data varied in sample and effect size to illustrate key considerations. Further, we highlight the statistical implications of each of these scenarios. Recommendations and key considerations for the field are briefly discussed.

Identifying causal role of COVID-19 in immunopsychiatry models

10.31234/osf.io/h3dte

The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has led to sweeping changes in psychological practice and the concomitant rapid uptake of telepsychotherapy. Although telepsychotherapy is new to many clinical psychologists, there is considerable research on telepsychotherapy treatments. Nearly two decades of clinical research on telepsychotherapy treatments with children with neurological conditions has the potential to inform emerging clinical practice in the age of COVID-19. Toward that end, we synthesized findings from 14 clinical trials of telepsychotherapy problem solving and parent training interventions involving more than 800 children and families with diverse diagnoses including traumatic brain injury, epilepsy, brain tumors, congenital heart disease, and perinatal stroke. We summarize efficacy across studies and clinical populations and report feasibility and acceptability data from the perspectives of parents, children, and therapists. We describe adaptation for international contexts and strategies for troubleshooting technological challenges and working with families of varying socioeconomic strata. The extensive research literature reviewed and synthesized provides considerable support for the utility of telepsychotherapy with children with neurological conditions and their families and underscores its high level of acceptability with both diverse clinical populations and providers. During this period of heightened vulnerability and stress and reduced access to usual supports and services, telepsychotherapy approaches such as online family problem-solving treatment and online parenting skills training may allow psychologists to deliver traditional evidence-based treatments virtually while preserving fidelity and efficacy.

Telepsychotherapy with children and families: Lessons gleaned from two decades of translational research

10.31234/osf.io/bywu7

Objective: Somatisation is commonly associated with histories of trauma and PTSD symptoms. Although previous research has demonstrated that PTSD symptoms predict somatic symptoms, there has been no systematic examination of this at the level of symptom clusters for COVID-19 related PTSD and multi-dimensional assessment of somatic symptoms. It was aimed to test for an association between ICD-11 PTSD symptom clusters, with COVID-19 as the stressor, and somatic symptoms while controlling for potentially confounding variables. Methods: Participants were a nationally representative sample of 1,041 adults from the general population of the Republic of Ireland. Physical health problems across the domains of pain, gastrointestinal, cardiopulmonary, and fatigue were assessed by the PHQ and PTSD symptoms were assessed with the ITQ. Descriptive analyses were undertaken and a confirmatory factor analysis was conducted controlling for potentially confounding variables. Results: All ICD-11 PTSD symptom clusters predicted the presence of pain, fatigue, gastro-intestinal, and cardiovascular symptoms in the PHQ. Sense of Threat individually predicted all physical health variables, and Avoidance predicted pain. Conclusions: The study demonstrates the key role of sense of threat in the presence of COVID-19 trauma and somatisation. Findings suggest that interventions that tackle sense of threat might provide relief from somatisation.

Somatisation and COVID-19 related Posttraumatic Stress Disorder symptoms: The role of hyperarousal

10.31234/osf.io/9bpr4

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify leading sources of stress, describe rates of mental health outcomes, and examine their associations among U.S. adults during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: In a cross-sectional, general population survey conducted from March 18 to April 4, 2020, U.S. adults (n=10,625) were recruited through Qualtrics Panels using quota sampling methods. Results: Life stressors, probable depression, past-month suicide ideation, and past-month suicide attempts were not elevated among participants subject to state-level stay-at-home orders and/or large gatherings bans. Multiple life stressors were associated with increased rates of probable depression. Past-month suicide ideation was significantly higher among participants reporting ongoing arguments with a partner and serious legal problems. Past-month suicide attempt was significantly higher among participants reporting concerns about a life-threatening illness or injury, but was significantly lower among participants reporting an unexpected bill or expense. Conclusions: Results failed to support the conclusion that physical distancing measures are correlated with worse mental health outcomes. Concerns about life-threatening illness or injury was uniquely associated with increased risk of suicide attempt.

Associations among state-level physical distancing measures and suicidal thoughts and behaviors among U.S. adults during the early COVID-19 pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/mnbxf

The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as it relates to people’s experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to determined. This study was conducted to determine rates of COVID-19 related PTSD in the Irish general population, the level of comorbidity with depression and anxiety, and sociodemographic risk factors associated with COVID-19 related PTSD. A nationally representative sample of adults from the general population of the Republic of Ireland (N = 1,041) completed self-report measures of all study variables. The rate of COVID-19 related PTSD was 17.7% (95% CI = 15.35 - 19.99%: n=184), and comorbidity with generalized anxiety (49.5%) and depression (53.8%) was high. Meeting the diagnostic requirement for COVID-19 related PTSD was associated with younger age, male sex, living in a city, living with children, moderate and high perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, and screening positive for anxiety or depression. Traumatic stress problems related to the COVID-19 pandemic are common in the general population. Our results show that health professionals responsible for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic should expect to routinely encounter traumatic stress problems.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms and associated comorbidity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland: A population based study

10.31234/osf.io/zhw6j

Previous research concerning the effectiveness of public health campaigns have explored the impact of message design, message content, communication channel choice and other aspects of such campaigns. Meta analyses reported in the literature reveal, however, that the choice of endorsers in health campaigns remains unexplored. The present study addresses this gap in the literature by studying what makes doctors from public health campaigns appear trustworthy in the eyes of the receiver. The present research examines propensity for trust as well facets of trustworthiness of such expert doctors based on a survey carried out in the UK (155 respondents). Underlying factors of trustworthiness are explored to gain more insight into the understanding of how trust may affect the public’s belief updating and the formation of intentions. Exploratory factor analyses suggest four dimensions of trustworthiness. Multiple regression analyses demonstrate that these factors explain almost 70% of the variance in the participants’ expressed trust in doctors from public health campaigns. Doctors’ ethical stance and their care for the health of the general population appear to be more important for perceived trustworthiness than their actual professional background, although their abilities and competences are closely related to ethics and benevolence. For policy makers this has important implications when selecting endorsers for public health campaigns in order to design effective health related communication, for example to combat obesity.

Trustworthiness of Doctors from Public Health Campaigns

Evidence informs guidance and public health decisions. In disease outbreaks, evidence is often scarce but accumulates rapidly. We need solutions to keep track of the emerging evidence. One of these solutions was suggested by Elliot et al.: the living systematic review. A review that is updated as soon as new information becomes available.

Living Evidence on COVID-19

The social-media giant internally studied how it polarizes users, then largely shelved the research

Facebook Executives Shut Down Efforts to Make the Site Less Divisive

FT analysis of data from 19 countries finds Britain suffering heavy toll from pandemic

UK suffers second-highest death rate from coronavirus | Free to read

Education charity finds coronavirus school closures may have reversed years of work to narrow gap in England

Decade of progress in tackling pupil disadvantage 'wiped out'

New York (CNN Business)The past three months have been financially painful for many Americans -- but not for billionaires.

US billionaires have regained $565 billion in wealth since the pit of the crisis

We are over five months into this pandemic, and it is pretty clear that almost everyone is really tired of hearing about it. I myself am totally zoomed out and have already seen too many dashboards. Nevertheless, we are in this for the long run. So from time-to-time, I think it worthwhile to continue to look for tools that can help us make some sense of the continuing stream of incoming data. First, I would like to draw your attention to the Covid Trends animated dashboard from Physics teacher Aatish Bhatia. The epidemiologists are the experts in this domain, but it is just like a physicist to deliver on insight.

More Select COVID-19 Resources

10.31219/osf.io/a2nys

Reminders to promote social distancing have been ubiquitous throughout the COVID-19 crisis, but little is known about their effectiveness. Existing studies find positive impacts on intentions to comply, but no evidence exists of actual behavioural change. We conduct a randomised controlled trial with a representative sample of Danish residents, who receive different versions of a reminder to stay home as much as possible at the height of the crisis. We are the first to measure impacts on both intentions to comply and on actions in the following days (i.e., whether the person reports having stayed home). We find that the reminder significantly increases people’s intentions to stay home when it emphasises the consequences of non-compliance for the respondent or his/her family, while it has no impact when the emphasis is on other people or the country as a whole. Changes in intentions, however, translate into weaker changes in actions that are not statistically significant, despite potential concerns of self-reported compliance being overstated. This is consistent with the existence of important intention-to-action gaps. Only people who are in relatively poor health are significantly more likely to stay home after receiving the reminder with an emphasis on personal and family risks. This shows that while reminders may be useful to protect groups at risk by increasing their own compliance with social distancing, such a tool is unable to change the behaviour of those who face limited personal risks but could spread the disease.

Promoting social distancing in a pandemic: Beyond the good intentions

The majority of crises that most of us have lived through have not looked to science for immediate answers. In many cases, much of the scientific analysis came after the fact—the effects of climate change on extreme weather events; the causes of nuclear accidents; and the virology of outbreaks that were contained such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–2003 or Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012. Now, science is being asked to provide a rapid solution to a problem that is not completely described.

Published scientific research, like any piece of writing, is a peculiar literary genre.

How You Should Read Coronavirus Studies, or Any Science Paper

Some fear that governments could exploit the pandemic to usher in broad invasive powers long after the crisis has passed.

Surveillance Technology Will Only Get More Intense After Covid

After Dominic Cumming’s Rose Garden press conference I tweeted this.

Have Virus, Will Travel?

Notes on model selection with AIC (Akaike's information criterion) from my statistics courses

10.31234/osf.io/7hmgz

All About AIC

The boffins of AstraZeneca are showing the way forward

The quest for a vaccine could restore faith in big pharma

Thanks to covid-19, these woolly risk factors are in the limelight

ESG investors get their heads around social risks

But they are still much worse off than before the pandemic

Germany helps sex workers idled by covid-19

But that will help it survive the pandemic and thrive afterwards

The sharing economy will have to change

There are direct routes and indirect ones

How SARS-CoV-2 causes disease and death in covid-19

Sage member also says Covid-19 ‘definitely not over’ and urges caution in easing lockdown

UK failure to lock down earlier cost many lives, top scientist says