postgrowth demand reduction strategies reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity and human well-being while also accelerating uh technological changes and efficiency improvements
for - green growth - alternative - postgrowth demand reduction
for - SRG Corporation2CO-OPeration program - worker-owned cooperatives - Apis & Heritage - inequality reduction - via worker-owned cooperatives
summary - Apis & Heritage is a unique US private equity firm that has established an investment fund called "The Legacy Fund" which is used to facilitate Employee-Led BuyOut (ELBO). Studies show the enormous potential for reducing inequality and it is an issue that receives rare bipartisan political support in the US. The "Silver Tsunami" describes 3 million small business owners likely to retire in 2035. Together, their businesses account for $10 trillion in assets. Apis & Heritage helps faciliate a smooth transition for owners to sell to their employees, increasing their net worth by as much as 10x by the time they retire.
predatory ‘Dominants’ and unsuspecting subs in the community. There were also many novice kinksters unsure of how to safely learn the ropes.
still a concern to many kinksters. the plethora of information harm reduction at our disposal through disconnected forums and blogs has not reached its educational goals. Even for those who are driven to learning, simple barriers to self teaching include [not knowing the words to search], the dilution of valuable information hidden behind sponsored articles, niche intersections of fantasy which are not traditionally represented in harm reduction materials.
Am 12.05.2025 legten US-Hausabgeordnete Pläne vor, um Steuergutschriften für saubere Energie schrittweise abzuschaffen, Ausgaben für Elektrofahrzeuge und erneuerbare Energien zu kürzen und andere klimabezogene Mittel zurückzuholen. Diese Maßnahmen sind Teil des Versuchs der Republikaner, ein Multi-Billionen-Dollar-Budget in Einklang mit der Agenda von Präsident Donald Trump zu verabschieden. Der Vorschlag des House Committee on Energy and Commerce sieht vor, 6,5 Mrd. USD durch die Abschaffung klimabezogener Teile des Inflation Reduction Act der Biden-Administration einzusparen. Der House Ways and Means Ausschuss schlug vor, mehrere lukrative Steuergutschriften aus Bidens Klimagesetz zu streichen, darunter Gutschriften für den Kauf von Elektrofahrzeugen und für Energieeffizienzverbesserungen im Haushalt. Die Solar- und Windindustrie kritisierten die Pläne als jobvernichtend und konträr zu Trumps Ziel, inländische Energiequellen auszubauen. [Zusammenfassung mit Mistral generiert] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-house-targets-big-climate-clean-energy-rollbacks-budget-proposal-2025-05-12/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2025-05-13&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+13+05+2025
for - dimensionality reduction - UMAP - SRG mapping tool
for - t-SNE - youtube - t-SNE explanation - high dimensionality space - dimensional reduction
par exemple là je l'ai pas je l'ai pas allumé mais la réduction de la taille des classes qui a été qui est effectivement une action importante gouvernementale depuis 2017 00:21:38 c'est une c'est une action qui est coûteuse hein parce qu'il faut recruter évidemment les enseignants pour réduire les effectifs qui dans la littérature internationale a des 00:21:50 effets modérés d'accord donc c'est pas la politique qui a le plus d'effets en terme d'apprentissage l'évalu tion qui a été faite sur les données françaises suite au dédoublement de de REP et des REP plus en fait la réduction t des 00:22:04 classes elle est même plutôt à ce niveau-là ici là 010 c'est plutôt ça l'effet qu'on a trouvé sur les données françaises voyez donc c'est pas c'est bien je veux dire il faut pas il faut pas regrossir les classes c'est pas mon 00:22:17 propos du tout mais ça ne suffit absolument pas de réduire la taille des classes si on transforme pas les pédagogies si on transforme pas l'état d'esprit des élèves et leur motivation à apprendre en fait on a des effets qui sont très décevants relativement au coût 00:22:30 donc en fait maintenant il faut agir sur d'autres leviers pour gagner davantage en efficacité sur ce dédoublement de CP
A similar magnitude (about 20 pct savings) is found in ref. 10.
for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 20% reduction in households
a change towards climate-friendly behavior by citizens can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions substantially: up to one-third of the total EU mitigation target pledged
for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 33% reduction in EU
A study published in Nature Climate Change estimated a reduction of 17% in daily emissions in early April 2020 (Figure 1). Greenhouse gas emissions had a reduction of 17 percent from a year earlier on April 7. At the time, China, the United States, India, and other major carbon-emitting countries were all at high levels of quarantine. Overall, daily carbon dioxide emissions decreased by an average of 8.6% between January and April compared to the same period in 2019 (Figure 1).
for - stats - carbon emissions reduction during covid - decarbonization rate - 17% in early April 2020 and 8.6% average between Jan and Apr 2020 compared to same period in 2019
is is a worry for two reasons. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which supports solar, wind, electric vehicles and energy efficiency, is the main reason the US leads the G20 in projected
Allein das Rollback der klimapolitischen Maßnahmen der Biden-Administration durch die Trump-Regierung wird bis 2030 zu 4 Gigatonnen CO2-Äqivalenten an zusätzlicher Emissionen führen (bis 2050 zu 27GtCO2e). Die Analyse verschiedener Modellierungen der von Trump geplanten Maßnahmen durch Carbon Brief ergab im März, dass die USA damit weltweit fast eine Billiarde USD zusätzlicher „social costs of carbon“ verursachen würden. Die geplante weitere fossile Expansion unter dem Motto „drill, Baby, drill!“ ist dabei nicht einberechnet https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030
Die Methan-Emissionen steigen in den USA wie international weiter, im Widerspruch zu den Zusagen des Global Methane Pledge. Eine Hauptursache ist die weiter zunehmende Förderung von Öl und Gas. Neue Auswertungen des Instituts Kayrros ergeben detaillierter als bisher Cass die Emissionen in13 grossen Öl- und Gas-Fördergebieten mit zwei Ausnahmen gewachsen sind. Hintergrundbericht, auch über Maßnahmen der Biden-Administration und EU- zur Reduktion der Emissionen. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/climate/us-methane-greenhouse-gas.html
Kayrros-Artikel: https://www.energyintel.com/00000187-9953-d12b-a7bf-9dfb5fb60000
04:00 Allen compares GTD to F1, here. Funnily enough, the most productive people are the ones that get most into GTD. Similarly, the fastest people, in F1, want to get even faster, "by reducing drag in the system".
Interestingly, DRS can thus be used in other contexts, like productivity. "How can you open your flap, and reduce drag, like F1 cars do?"
Donald Trump hat 20 Spitzenmanagern der amerikanischen Ölindustrie angeboten, für Wahlkampfspenden in Höhe von einer Milliarde Dollar alle Regulierungen der Biden-Administration, die die Förderung von Öl und Gas behindern, zu Beginn seiner Amtszeit außer Kraft zu setzen. Die Washington Post berichtet über das Treffen in Mar-a-Lago. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/trump-oil-ceo-donation
Bericht der Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/l
Britische Analyse des green Deal der bisher die erwünschten Ergebnisse nicht gebracht hat. Die EU verfolgt eine marktwirtschaftliche Linie und kann damit nicht mit den USA und China, die protektionistisch agieren, konkurrieren. Zum Erreichen der Klimaziele werden laut EU-Kommission bis 2030 zusätzlich 620 Milliarden Euro an Investitionen erforderlich, das sind 3,7% der Wirtschaftsleistung der EU. https://taz.de/Kompetent-versenkt/!6012533/
lorsque les 01:01:42 parents sont confrontés à des situations de pauvreté de chômage ou d'insécurité économique ils seront difficilement réceptifs à ce type d'intervention en effet dans cette 01:01:53 présentation j'ai essayé de montrer qu'il est important de comprendre les inégalités entre environnements familiaux dans le contexte plus large des inégalités socioéconomique et 01:02:05 culturel de nos sociétés il est donc nécessaire de mettre en place des politiques public qui s'attaque aussi à ces inégalités plus larges
Die Methanlecks der beiden größten Öl- und Gasfelder Turkmenistans erzeugen in einem Jahr mehr Treibhausgase als das gesamte Vereinigte Königreich. Das ergibt eine vom Guardian in Auftrag gegebene Recherche. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/mind-boggling-methane-emissions-from-turkmenistan-revealed
In den Ländern, die sich in Paris 2015 einer Initiative gegen das Verbrennen von nicht genutztem Erdgas (flaring) angeschlossen hatten, wird das Verbrennen mit offener Flamme oft nur durch Verbrennung in geschlossenen Anlagen ersetzt, wie eine investigative journalistische Recherche ergab. Die Menge der Emissionen sinkt dadurch nicht wesentlich, aber diese Anlagen sind für Satelliten nicht äußerlich erkennbar. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/02/methane-emissions-gas-flaring-hidden-satellite-monitors-oil-gas
Ressourcen für die Recherche zu Methan-Emissionen: https://gijn.org/resource/new-tools-investigate-methane-emissions/
“Legalizing deadly drugs has killed users, hurt neighbourhoods, and damaged B.C. communities.”
Councillors Linda Annis of Surrey, Daniel Fontaine of New Westminster, and Alexa Loo of Richmond, say they will bring motions to their councils that would call on the B.C. NDP government to scrap the three-year experiment that started on Jan. 31, 2023.
for: Michel Bilbot, transcendental, transcendental - Kant, awakening, non-dual, nondual, nonduality, non-duality, emptiness, epoche, Maurice Merle-Ponty, perspective shift, perspective shift - transcendental
summary
adjacency
Die EU hat nicht erreicht, dass Mittel aus dem Inflation Reduction Act auch zur Subventionierung des Kaufs von aus der EU gelieferten privaten E-Autos verwendet werden. Bei der Entscheidung der USA, die in der EU-Wirtschaft vielfach als protektionistisch bewertet wird, spielt die Herkunft von Mineralien eine große Rolle. Die Verhandlungen über das Critical Minerals Agreement (CMA) führten nicht zu einer Einigung. Der Handelsblatt-Artikel stellt den komplexen Hintergrund ausführlich dar und berichtet auch über weitere Verhandlungen.
Durch den Inflation reduction Act sind in den USA die Investitionen in emissionsarme Technologien auf 240 Milliarden Dollar gestiegen, wären sie in Europa -allerdings auf höherem niveau-stagnieren. Durch den Inflation reduction Act wird auch internationales Kapital in die USA gezogen. Besonders viele Investitionen fließen in die Elektromobilität, darunter in elektrische SUVs. Das Handelsblatt hat eine Studie zur Wirkung von Subventionen in der Klimapolitik in den USA und Europa beauftragt.
Bei einem hohen Emissionsszenario wird es weltweit in jeder achten der jetzigen Ski-Destinationen am Ende dieses Jahrhunderts keinen Schnee mehr geben. Auch für viele andere Skiorte hat die globale Erhitzung dramatische folgen. Eine neue Studie erfasst sie aufgrund genauer regionaler Modellierungen. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/03/13/news/neve_sci_impianti_chiusi-422305098/
Fachleute rechnen damit, dass ein Sieg Trumps bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen zu einem Rollback bei den Projekten für saubere Energie führen würde, die die Biden-Administration eingeleitet hat. Der Inflation Reduction Act hat bereits zu Investitionen von etwa 200 Milliarden Dollar in solche Projekte geführt. Wie weit der Rollback gelingen würde, ist unklar, zumal besonders republikanisch dominierte Regionen von den Projekten der aktuellen Administration profitieren. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/19/us/politics/inflation-reduction-act-republican-attacks.html
for - Inflation Reduction Act - bolstering to reach NDC
In der New York Times weist Jason Bordoff, der lange selbst Regierungsberater war, die europäische Kritik am Inflation Reduction Act zurück. Man kann dem Artikel entnehmen dass vor allem europäische Firmen von den hohen Preisen für Flüssiggas profitieren, die sie in den USA vorwerfen. Die Abhängigkeit von russischem Gas hat der Konkurrenzfähigkeit der europäischen Industrie geschadet. Bordoff weist auch darauf hin, dass die Europäer jetzt den USA vorwerfen, bei der Dekarbonisierung entschlossener vorzugehen.
get us only partly there (around 40 percent).
for - Paris Agreement - U.S. commitments - contribution from IInflation Reduction Act
Paris Agreement - U.S. commitment - contribution from Inflation Reduction Act - U.S. committed to 60% emissions reduction by 2030 - If Inflation Reduction Act is fully implemented without GOP-stacked court blocking it - it achieves 40% - Biden 2024 win is necessary, but not sufficient - Trump 2024 win will be a step in the wrong direction
Eine der wichtigsten wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Konferenzen der USA, die Allied Social Science Association conference der American Economic Association, war von Themen beherrscht, die mit der globalen Erhitzung zusammenhängen. In dem Bericht der New York Times wird das als Signal für einen Umschwung in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft interpretiert und unter anderem mit den Rekordtemperaturen des vergangenen Jahres in Verbindung gebracht. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/business/economy/climate-change-economics.html
All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement, which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out
quote: Johan Rockstrom
China hat einen lange angekündigten Plan zur Methan-Reduktion veröffentlicht. Der Zeitpunkt am Ende von Gesprächen des chinesischen Klima-Beauftragten Xie Zhenhua mit seinem amerikanischen Pendant John Kerry gilt als Signal für mehr Kooperation zwischen China und den USA im Vorfeld der COP28. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/china-methane-plan-climate-agreement-us
Mehr zu Methan-Emissionen und -Reduktion: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%27process%3A+methane+reduction%27
John Kerry besucht in dieser Woche China für dreitägige Gespräche mit seinem Pendant Xie Zhenhua. Konkrete Ergebnisse dieses Treffens werden von den meisten Experten nicht erwartet. Ein mögliches Ergebnis könnten regelmäßige Gespräche beide Seiten zur Abstimmung ihrer Dekarbonisierungspolitik sein. Hintergrundbericht in der New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/climate/us-china-climate-talks.html
Zusammenfassung des neuen Global Methane Tracker. Siehe auch Artikel in der Libération
Bericht der International Energy Agency zur Reduktion der Methanemissionen bei der Förderung von Öl und Gas. Trotz der Rekordgewinne unternehmen die fossilen Energiefirmen bei weitem nicht genug, um diese Emissionen zu stoppen. Nur 3% der Gewinne des letzten Jahres wären nötig um das Methan, das bei der Öl- und Gasförderung in die Atmosphäre entweicht, um 75% zu reduzieren.
Chapter 21 "Adversarial Autonencoders" from our book "Elements of Dimensionality Reduction and Manifold Learning", Springer 2023.
Discussion of the paper:
Ghojogh B, Ghodsi A, Karray F, Crowley M. Theoretical Connection between Locally Linear Embedding, Factor Analysis, and Probabilistic PCA. Proceedings of the Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence [Internet]. 2022 May 27; Available from: https://caiac.pubpub.org/pub/7eqtuyyc
a biologically driven cryptic cycle was determined by identifying metabolically active sulfate reducing and sulfur oxidizing lineages co-locating within the sediments, effectively masking sulfide production through re-oxidation back to sulfate.
I hope anyway, it is a hope – that there will be some sort of partnership between bottom-up and top-down that will provide guidance to leaders to put the right things in place.
date: Sept., 2023
comment
The bipartisan Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, making them more expensive for companies to do.
for: emissions reduction, bend the curve, TPF, W2W, emissions reduction - cultural sector, bend the curve - cultural sector, TPF - cultural sector, W2W - cultural sector, carbon emissions - cultural sector, carbon inequality
comment
Professor Büchs said
"Our research is indicating that public support for energy demand reduction is possible if the public see the schemes as being fair and deliver climate justice."
One option is to cap the top 20% of energy users while allowing those people who use little energy and have poverty-level incomes to be able to increase their consumption levels and improve their quality of life.
Cap top 20% of energy users to reduce carbon emissions
Publication
Summary -Consumers in the richer, developed nations will have to accept restrictions on their energy use
ReduceDemand
An Alternate Chord–Scale Relationship for the A Section
FIGURE 19.6 A Basic Chord–Scale Relationship for the A Section
Der Inflation Reduction Act hat in den USA deutlich mehr Investitionen in Erneuerbare und in Elektromobilität ausgelöst als vorausgesehen. Einer der Architekten des Gesetzes, das u.a. Investionen in bisher von fossilen Energien abhängien Gebieten fördert, zieht in der New York Times eine frühe Erfolgsbilanz. Er weist aber auch auf fehlende Regelungen bei der Infrastrukturplanung, Investionsanreizen und Abkommen mit Partnerländern hin. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/opinion/climate-clean-energy-investment.html
unity of science
process:explaining higher-level scientific phenomena science in theories through the entities and theories from the more fundamental science.
This lower the level the more material and less constructed the science. (Which makes physics actually one level, according to Bechter and Hamilton (2007))
also: theory of reduction
The decision doesn’t change things. Consistent with its mission, the Foundation operates in a transparent fashion and will continue to do so," said its spokeswoman, Connie Luck, in a written statement.
...by continuing to bar people from public meetings or respond to open records requests?!?
Bidens Inflation Reduction Act löst offenbar wesentlich mehr Investitionen in Erneuerbare aus als zunächst erwartet. Angekündigt sind Investitionen von mindestens 150 Milliarden USD.Damit werden aber auch deutlich mehr Steuereinnahmen in Subventionen dieser Energien fließen, was zu heftigen Konflikten mit den Republikanern führt. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/business/ira-climate-tax-breaks-biden.html
But share buybacks are also increasingly under fire. President Joe Biden, a frequent critic of share repurchases, included a 1% tax on share repurchases in the Inflation Reduction Act passed by Democrats in Congress last year.
Models, Simulations, and The Reduction of Complexity
(copepoda <- fsubset(zooplankton, class %in% c("Calanoïde", "Cyclopoïde", "Harpacticoïde", "Poecilostomatoïde")))
Weaver, M. (2022, January 4). Omicron infections may have plateaued in London, Neil Ferguson says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/omicron-infections-may-have-plateaued-in-london-neil-ferguson-says
Sandra Ciesek. (2021, December 8). Unsere ersten Daten zur Neutralisation von Omicron versus Delta sind fertig: 2x Biontech, 2x Moderna, 1xAZ/1x Biontech nach 6 Monaten 0% Neutralisation bei Omicron, auch 3x Biontech 3 Monate nach Booster nur 25% NT versus 95% bei Delta. Bis zu 37fache Reduktion Delta vs. Omicron https://t.co/w0gHww26sg [Tweet]. @CiesekSandra. https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/1468465347519041539
Landhuis, E. (2021, November 12). Investigating Antidepressants’ Surprising Effect on COVID Deaths. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/investigating-antidepressants-surprising-effect-on-covid-deaths/
Le cap fixé par le gouvernement de réduction de 10 % des consommations d’énergie d’ici deux ans vous semble-t-il suffisant ?Cet objectif est possible et même souhaitable mais pas assez ambitieux
Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation
NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.
This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.
it's really worth reading some of the things 00:18:00 that they're saying on climate change now and so what about 2 degrees C that's the 46th pathway that's the thousand Gigaton pathway the two degrees so you 00:18:13 look at the gap but between those two just an enormous that's where where no English edding we're all part of this and that's where we know we have to go from the science and that's where we keep telling other parts of the world begun to try to achieve the problem with 00:18:26 that and there's an engineer this is quite depressing in some respects is that this part at the beginning where we are now is too early for low-carbon supply you cannot build your way out of this with bits of engineering kit and 00:18:39 that is quite depressing because that leaves us with the social implications of what you have to do otherwise but I just want to test that assumption just think about this there's been a lot of discussion I don't know about within Iceland but in the UK quite a lot me 00:18:51 environmentalist have swapped over saying they think nuclear power is the answer or these one of the major answers to this and I'm I remain agnostic about nuclear power yeah it's very low carbon five to 15 grams of carbon dioxide per 00:19:03 kilowatt hour so it's it's similar to renewables and five to ten times lower than carbon capture and storage so nuclear power is very low carbon it has lots of other issues but it's a very low carbon but let's put a bit of 00:19:15 perspective on this we totally we consume in total about a hundred thousand ten watts hours of energy around the globe so just a very large amount of energy lots of energy for those of you I'm not familiar with these units global electricity consumption is 00:19:30 about 20,000 tarantella patelliday hours so 20% of lots of energy so that's our electricity nuclear provides about 11 a half percent of the electricity around the globe of what we consume of our 00:19:42 final energy consumption so that means nuclear provides about two-and-a-half percent of the global energy demand about two and a half percent that's from 435 nuclear power stations provide two 00:19:56 and a half percent of the world's energy demand if you wanted to provide 25% of the world's energy demand you'd probably need something in the region of three or four thousand new nuclear power stations to be built in the next 30 00:20:08 years three or four thousand new nuclear power stations to make a decent dent in our energy consumption and that assumes our energy consumptions remain static and it's not it's going up we're building 70 so just to put some sense 00:20:21 honest you hear this with every technology whether it's wind wave tidal CCS all these big bits of it technology these are going to solve the problem you cannot build them fast enough to get away from the fact that we're going to 00:20:34 blow our carbon budget and that's a really uncomfortable message because no one wants to hear that because the repercussions of that are that we have to reduce our energy demand so we have to reduce demand now now it is really 00:20:48 important the supply side I'm not saying it's not important it is essential but if we do not do something about the men we will not be able to hold to to probably even three degrees C and that's a global analysis and the iron would be 00:21:00 well we have signed up repeatedly on the basis of equity and when we say that we normally mean the poorer parts of the world would be allowed to we'll be able to peak their emissions later than we will be able to in the West that seems a 00:21:13 quite a fair thing that probably but no one would really argue I think against the idea of poor parts the world having a bit more time and space before they move off fossil fuels because there that links to their welfare to their improvements that use of energy now 00:21:27 let's imagine that the poor parts the world the non-oecd countries and I usually use the language of non annex 1 countries for those people who are familiar with that sort of IPCC language let's imagine that those parts of the 00:21:39 world including Indian China could peak their emissions by 2025 that is hugely challenging I think is just about doable if we show some examples in the West but I think it's just about past possible as 00:21:51 the emissions are going up significantly they could peak by 2025 before coming down and if we then started to get a reduction by say 2028 2029 2030 of 6 to 8 percent per annum which again is a 00:22:02 massive reduction rate that is a big challenge for poor parts of the world so I'm not letting them get away with anything here that's saying if they did all of that you can work out what carbon budget they would use up over the century and then you know what total carbon budget is for two degree 00:22:16 centigrade and you can say what's left for us the wealthy parts of the world that seems quite a fair way of looking at this and if you do it like that what's that mean for us that means we'd have to have and I'm redoing this it now 00:22:28 and I think it's really well above 10% because this is based on a paper in 2011 which was using data from 2009 to 10 so I think this number is probably been nearly 13 to 15 percent mark now but about 10 percent per annum reduction 00:22:40 rate in emissions year on year starting preferably yesterday that's a 40 percent reduction in our total emissions by 2018 just think their own lives could we reduce our emissions by 40 percent by 00:22:52 2018 I'm sure we could I'm sure we'll choose not to but sure we could do that but at 70 percent reduction by 2020 for 20-25 and basically would have to be pretty much zero carbon emissions not just from electricity from everything by 00:23:06 2030 or 2035 that sort of timeframe that just this that's just the simple blunt maths that comes out of the carbon budgets and very demanding reduction rates from poorer parts of the world now 00:23:19 these are radical emission reduction rates that we cannot you say you cannot build your way out or you have to do it with with how we consume our energy in the short term now that looks too difficult well what about four degrees six that's what you hear all the time that's too difficult so what about four 00:23:31 degrees C because actually the two degrees C we're heading towards is probably nearer three now anyway so I'm betting on your probabilities so let's think about four degrees C well what it gives you as a larger carbon budget and we all like that because it means I can 00:23:43 attend more fancy international conferences and we can come on going on rock climbing colleges in my case you know we can all count on doing than living the lives that we like so we quite like a larger carbon budget low rates of mitigation but what are the 00:23:54 impacts this is not my area so I'm taking some work here from the Hadley Centre in the UK who did some some analysis with the phone and Commonwealth Office but you're all probably familiar with these sorts of things and there's a range of these impacts that are out there a four degree C global average 00:24:07 means you're going to much larger averages on land because mostly over most of the planet is covered in oceans and they take longer to warm up but think during the heat waves what that might play out to mean so during times 00:24:18 when we're already under stress in our societies think of the European heat wave I don't know whether it got to Iceland or not and in 2003 well it was it was quite warm in the West Europe too warm it's probably much nicer 00:24:31 in Iceland and there were twenty to thirty thousand people died across Europe during that period now add eight degrees on top of that heat wave and it could be a longer heat wave and you start to think that our infrastructure start to break down the 00:24:45 cables that were used to bring power to our homes to our fridges to our water pumps those cables are underground and they're cooled by soil moisture as the soil moisture evaporates during a prolonged heatwave those cables cannot 00:24:56 carry as much power to our fridges and our water pumps so our fridges and water pumps can no longer work some of them will be now starting to break down so the food and our fridges will be perishing at the same time that our neighbors food is perishing so you live 00:25:08 in London eight million people three days of food in the whole city and it's got a heat wave and the food is anybody perishing in the fridges so you think you know bring the food from the ports but the similar problems might be happening in Europe and anyway the tarmac for the roads that we have in the 00:25:19 UK can't deal with those temperatures so it's melting so you can't bring the food up from the ports and the train lines that we put in place aren't designed for those temperatures and they're buckling so you can't bring the trains up so you've got 8 million people in London 00:25:31 you know in an advanced nation that is start to struggle with those sorts of temperature changes so even in industrialized countries you can imagine is playing out quite negatively a whole sequence of events not looking particulate 'iv in China look at the 00:25:44 building's they're putting up there and some of this Shanghai and Beijing and so forth they've got no thermal mass these buildings are not going to be good with high temperatures and the absolutely big increases there and in some parts of the states could be as high as 10 or 12 00:25:56 degrees temperature rises these are all a product of a 4 degree C average temperature
We have to peak emissions in the next few years if we want to stay under 1.5 Deg C. This talk was given back in 2015 when IPCC was still setting its sights on 2 Deg C.
This is a key finding for why supply side development cannot scale to solve the problem in the short term. It's impossible to scale rapidly enough. Only drastic demand side reduction can peak emissions and drop drastically in the next few years.
And if we hit a 4 Deg C world, which is not out of the question as current Business As Usual estimates put us on track between 3 and 5 Deg C, Kevin Anderson cites some research about the way infrastructure systems in a city like London would break down
(((Howard Forman))). (2021, June 28). There are few more compelling graphics to demonstrate how effective vaccines are: 80+% reduction in hospital admissions for the group most vaccinated. <40% reduction in admissions for the group least likely to be vaccinated. [Tweet]. @thehowie. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1409492774009847810
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦. (2022, March 8). What could be causing it? Likely combo of: 1—Dominant BA.2 causing more infections (we await ONS!) 2—Reduction in masks, self-isolation & testing enabling more infections 3—Waning boosters in older people esp I worry that we will be stuck at high levels for long time. 2/2 https://t.co/xZ2SLFNVkS [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1501250081693048838
ReconfigBehSci. (2022, January 20). @timcolbourn @OmicronData I’m sorry but I genuinely do not see how this is a response to what I said about the presuppositions in the ‘delay framing’? This reply is about your views on disease burden, not -as mine is- how choice of terminology implicitly shapes the argument space [Tweet]. @i. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484191657318879234
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i might add in october 2021 the climate change committee noted that the government's net zero strategy contained an 00:59:28 insufficient amount of demand management to deliver the uk uk's decarbonisation commitments my question to the panel is was there a big demand management hole in cop26 and if so what can be done to engage 00:59:41 politicians and policymakers more widely in this important piece of the decarbonization jigsaw
Demand side reduction is a challenging issue.
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