• for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• NOTE

  • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp

• SUMMARY

  • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

  • Positive tipping points

    • not as well studied as negative tipping points
    • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
      • politics
      • psychology
    • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change

• SPEAKER PANEL

  • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
  • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
  • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report

• Global Carbon Budget report summary

• 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

  • graph
  • comment
    • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.

• 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

• three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

• 00:21:55: CDR

  • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
  • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions

• 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

  • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
  • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
  • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2

• Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

• adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

  • 194 billion / year
  • 366 billion / year by 2030
• climate change increases transboundary issues
  • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
  • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
  • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

-00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

• 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

• 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

  • Greenland Ice Sheet
  • West Antarctic
  • Permafrost
  • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
  • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
    • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate

• 00:35:39

  • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.

• 00:36:00

  • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

-00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

• 00:37:30

  • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.

• 00:38:10

  • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
  • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
  • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal

Could this be linked to my FUD thesis about decisions based on possibilities rather than realities?

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This article is for those who want to keep traveling despite restrictions due to covid. Basically giving tips on how to navigate the multiple governmental restrictions and policies including links to airline or country websites for choosing destinations. Because of this trend in travel advice in covid times, we may see attitudes towards travel shift to travel knowing the risks involved (quarantine, masks requirements, etc.) and hence see tourism rise again. Last minute covid holiday packages. What if the trend for remaining home also stayed the same for next five years and the adventure seekers become the avatars for the folks who want to stay at home.

The crisis is changing the way how people will enjoy their international holiday, with an extra concern on testing and quarantine expenses and risk taking. That may have an impact on the tourism market, asking the airline companies to provide flexible policies /products and may witness the booming of travel insurance market.

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