So how well does Prime and Spike work compared to Prime alone? To mimic waning immunity, we gave very low dose of mRNA IM to prime the mice, then boosted nasally with Spike. 42 days later, they challenged mice with a lethal dose of SARS-CoV-2. (9/)

This strategy is versatile, and instead of using a recombinant protein, we show that spike mRNA encapsulated in immune-silent nanoparticle called Poly(amine-co-ester)s (PACE) developed by @wmsaltzman lab (PACE-Spike) IN was also capable of inducing TRM, BRM and mucosal Abs. (8/)

Further, in every respiratory compartment, lung parenchyma, lung lumen, nasal cavity, Prime and Spike led to increased CD4 tissue-resident memory (TRM) and spike-specific CD8 TRM (blue). Note that IN Spike without Prime (gray) does not induce Ab or T cells (7/)

To do this, @tianyangmao @BenIsraelow tested variety of boosting agents and found that simple purified spike protein (in stabilized prefusion confirmation) was able to boost nasal, lung and serum IgA/IgG & resident memory B & ASC following an IM Pfizer mRNA prime (blue). (6/)

How do we overcome these problems? Intranasal inert antigens are not immunogenic, but adding adjuvant is unsafe. The answer lies in taking advantage of the existing adaptive immunity and use it as natural adjuvant to boost immunity. Hack the immune system. (5/)

Adjuvanted inactivated vaccines have had safety concerns, as shown for the the intranasal flu vaccine significantly increasing the risk for Bell's palsy. (4/)nejm.orgUse of the Inactivated Intranasal Influenza Vaccine and the Risk of Bell's Palsy in Switzerland |...Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Use of the Inactivated Intranasal

To elicit mucosal immunity from scratch, live attenuated vaccines are often necessary, due to the need to introduce sufficient antigen and innate immune signals needed for priming via mucosal surfaces. Live vaccines are not safe for immunocompromised. (3/) https://nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00583-2

Current COVID vaccines are given intramuscularly. This induces robust circulating antibodies and systemic T & B cell responses that block viral spread and disease. However, to better block infection, immunity has to be established at mucosal surfaces. (2/) https://annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-immunol-032414-112315?url_ver=Z39.88-2003…

Update

Kelly

They haven’t even deleted their old tweets from before they changed username

This account is fake

The National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI) has given its recommendation to begin vaccination of children in the 12-14 years age group.

Corbevax: All About India's First Protein Sub-Unit Covid Vaccine to be Given to 12-14 Age Group From Today

He has repeatedly declared the pandemic is in retreat. He has cast doubt on masks. And he has one of the biggest platforms at The New York Times.

Why Is David Leonhardt So Happy?

Experts hope research can lead to development of drugs that stop people catching Covid or passing it on

Scientists seek to solve mystery of why some people do not catch Covid

Daily COVID-19 hospitalization in the US: observed and forecasted https://covid19forecasthub.org

Damn, nice findQuote Tweetsloppy_steaks@NToola9 · 27 FebGranzyme B and PASC (Long COVID). AICD in a clever way: bypasses CD95 to induce apoptosis through caspase cleavage. Significant expression of Granzyme B is found in NK and CD8+ long after recovery from COVID. T cells: Friend *AND* Foe. #LeonardiWasRight

Strikingly higher rates of decline in effectiveness for younger children suggest the lower dose they receive may be the reason

Pfizer vaccine significantly less effective in children ages five to 11, study shows

Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 vaccine has 57.9% (95% confidence interval 26.5% to 76.7%) efficacy against any symptomatic disease, the companies have reported.

Covid-19: Sanofi and GSK to seek regulatory authorisation for protein based vaccine

All that herd immunity …. Covid 3 times. Balloux

Preliminary look into the visitor locations to http://usps.gov mapped with new COVID-19 cases shows some overlaps, but many areas with high case counts are currently not showing high levels of web traffic. This analysis does not take social vulnerability into account.

The latest "Nowcast" from @CDCgov suggests Omicron has pretty much swept the table. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

surprising how the logic of argument around C19 has not updated to the fact that reinfection is a big thing, as are new variants. Delay = a round of infection you never got...Quote TweetRyan Radecki, MD MS@emlitofnote · 12 Jan“Wearing an n95 is pointless … exposure is inevitable.” … many people don’t want to meet omicron until hospitals are out of crisis standards, or until testing and treatment is readily available.

ok, you've lost me a bit there, but I think the reduction in disease burden is what matters going forwards as per my original thread.

I'm sorry but I genuinely do not see how this is a response to what I said about the presuppositions in the "delay framing"? This reply is about your views on disease burden, not -as mine is- how choice of terminology implicitly shapes the argument space

Apologies. Covid is now highly transmissible and our immunity to it rapidly wanes, so whilst delaying infections will reduce overall burden a bit, it will not reduce it very much at all relative to addressing the outcomes of the inevitable infections with vaccines & drugs.

not the point- I am merely unpacking the presupposition in your delay framing. A helpful response would be to agree or disagree with that, rather than ask me to debate elimination of flu (which is not the aim of this account as I have stated)

Have we ever tried to eliminate flu before? and if not, why not?

I think that's a bad comparison FWIW. Not only are the diseases very different but it conflates an individual level of protection with a societal level of protection.

I can't, for example, imagine someone saying "handwashing is of limited use it only "delays" getting norovirus". So, I think it seems worth unpacking the many presuppositions involved in your "just delay" framing 1/n

As I said before, it's not the function of this account to argue/advocate covid policies, but I will comment on the shape of the argument. The use of the frame "just delay" here seems hugely prejudicial. We don't talk that way about flu or other diseases we might get repeatedly

The key question is what’s actually reducing most of the disease burden? Seems like it’s vaccines, and soon drugs. NPIs in contrast only delay cases given waning immunity. I think we can get to ~95% reduced burden just through the PIs:Quote TweetProf Tim Colbourn@timcolbourn · 21 Dec 2021* COVID THREAD ON BEST WE CAN DO LONG TERM * Yes we’re in an acute crisis with Omicron and that needs dealing with, but it has actually made me want to think a lot about how this horrible pandemic ends, maybe you too? Let’s go through it… 1/35 (sorry, but this is troubling me)Show this thread

how many countries in the world presently have *no* NPIs during an omicron wave?

Fair enough - then I disagree it's an empirical fact

I never said it was a logical truth that NPIs needed- I said it is presently an empirical fact, and likely remains true for foreseeable future

And this is where we differ. So to go back to the original point...it's not a logical truth that lowering disease burden requires NPIs. We've already lowered the burden. The question is HOW low does it need to be. Only then can we conclude whether mitigations are needed.

and vice versa- lowering disease burden presently still requires use of NPIs and likely will for foreseeable future given new variants

likewise, what is required for reducing disease burden- in particular vaccination- also overlaps with elimination

not convinced of logic here as the kinds of mechanisms needed for elimination (air control, waste water surveillance, masks, devising flexible response schedules etc) also extend naturally to other pathogens

And I think this is important. Not only is there a possible trade off in the goals, but there are tradeoffs in assessing the goals. The more effort spent assessing zero COVID is possibly therefore a reduction in effort in assessing or implementing mitigation of impact of COVID.

Of importance to Covid goals I think is an acceptance that there might still be lots of cases but that outcomes can be dramatically improved with vaccines & drugs so that 95% of burden can be reduced. Strategy therefore needs to be very different to go after all cases too.

Thanks, but seems too different to the actual impossibility of zero Covid. A relevant stretch goal for Covid might actually be 95% reduction in all countries of the world. That’s extremely unlikely but actually possible? Going further still likely to do harm as needs restrictions

I think you are an economist? This literature might be of interesthbr.orgThe Stretch Goal ParadoxAudacious targets are widely misunderstood—and widely misused.

Maybe, though it seems intuitive to me that continued single minded focus on achieving a truly impossible goal will have net harms (even just in terms of opportunity costs - not focusing on other things) after some point?

obviously you won't be able to count the goal itself as a benefit (as impossible) but that doesn't preclude the costs and benefits of the actions taken in pursuit of that goal outweighing those of some alternative

Thanks. Does that hold for truly impossible goals though? at some point doesn’t continued pursuit of such clearly impossible goals do more harm than good? In any case I think continued pursuit of Covid elimination will do more harm than good, as explained here:Quote TweetProf Tim Colbourn@timcolbourn · 21 Dec 2021* COVID THREAD ON BEST WE CAN DO LONG TERM * Yes we’re in an acute crisis with Omicron and that needs dealing with, but it has actually made me want to think a lot about how this horrible pandemic ends, maybe you too? Let’s go through it… 1/35 (sorry, but this is troubling me)Show this thread

that also doesn't follow logically. As human beings we *pursue* many goals we fail to attain without that meaning that the costs of the pursuit necessarily outweighed the benefits.

Thanks and yes except if elimination is actually impossible (and there is a very strong case for that being so) then continuing to try to achieve it will always be too costly as you'll have very high costs for no marginal benefits at some point.

it's not actually a logical truth that such a point exists- it is logically entirely possible that the costs of trying to live with the virus outweighs those of elimination. Which is more costly is thus an empirical question

There can, and should, be a discussion about where the point of diminishing returns is. But to simply believe it doesn't exist is hardly a starting point for a reasonable discussion.219

There HAS to be a level where there are diminishing returns-eg eliminating last (say) X cases per week/year would harm more than it prevents. My fundamental issue with zero COVID isn't the aim but "single issue" approach. You can't look at zero COVID ignoring its non CV impact.

Agreed. I've noticed an increasing amount of entrenchment the last few weeks. This should be a discussion. Not an emotive and angry debate but a genuine discussion (which people may not all meet in the middle on) about the "least bad" route. For society as a whole.

The lack of critical discussion and reflection on Covid twitter is starting to get really upsetting (I might take a break). Seems like people are doubling down rather than opening up to engaging with different points of view. Short Thread: 1/7

This FLCCC COVID protocol gets nuttier with each version. Now hydroxychloroquine is “preferred for omicron”? What?! Stuff that actually works (monoclonals & fluvoxamine) are 2nd line And steroids, which increased mortality in people NOT on O2 in RECOVERY, are recommended?

.@YaleMed immunobiologist @VirusesImmunity leading research into long #COVID19. @FOX61Newsfox61.comYale researchers study long-term impacts even mild COVID can haveThe goal is to try to find out what's causing long COVID, which can affect multiple organ systems.

Wow. This is concerning. h/t @ForesightWisdom it is learning to become more chronic.Quote TweetFriedemann Weber@Friedemann1 · 22 JanTogether, our results indicate that Omicron has an increased capability to - suppress IFN production - evade the IFN antiviral state As IFNs belong to the innate immune system, this is a kind of immune evasion

"Eight countries achieved the 90–90–90 targets for testing, treatment access, and viral suppression of #HIV by the end of 2020; and a further 20 countries are close"-@DrTedros #EB150

"China and El Salvador were certified by WHO as #malaria-free last year, and the Islamic Republic of Iran recorded three consecutive years of zero indigenous cases"-@DrTedros #EB150 #EndMalaria

"On communicable diseases, 2021 was a historic year, with the WHO recommendation for widespread use of the world’s first #malaria vaccine, which could save tens of thousands of young lives each year"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote Tweet

"But despite the ravages of the #COVID19 pandemic, we are demonstrating that with the right strategies and the right tools, we can bring some of the world’s oldest infectious killers under control"-@DrTedros #EB150

"...and the proportion of people facing financial hardship due to out-of-pocket health spending has increased"-@DrTedros #EB150 #HealthForAllQuote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"The most recent WHO Global Monitoring Report on #HealthForAll shows that while service coverage has improved over the last 20 years, about half the ’s population still lacks access to essential health services..."-@DrTedros #EB150Show this thread

"The most recent WHO Global Monitoring Report on #HealthForAll shows that while service coverage has improved over the last 20 years, about half the ’s population still lacks access to essential health services..."-@DrTedros #EB150

"As a result of the #COVID19 pandemic, we could now be facing a shortfall of up to 840 million people, mostly in lower-income countries. More than 90% of countries continue to report disruptions to one or more essential health services"-@DrTedros #EB150 #HealthForAll

"Even before the pandemic, the world was off track for the “triple billion” targets. Now, we’re even further behind. That is particularly the case for our target to see 1 billion more people benefiting from universal health coverage [#HealthForAll]"-@DrTedros #EB150

"For that reason, the Secretariat is proposing a two-year extension of the GPW to 2025, to give us all a chance to get back on track, apply the lessons of the pandemic, intensify investments and accelerate progress"-@DrTedros #EB150

"The #COVID19 pandemic has been a severe disruption to health systems, economies and societies the world over, and to much of our shared work to advance towards the “triple billion” targets of the 13th General Programme of Work"-@DrTedros #EB150

"The challenges of supply we have faced in the past year are now being replaced by the challenge of rolling out vaccines as fast and far as possible. WHO and our partners are working with countries around the clock to overcome these challenges"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquity

"But we 𝗰𝗮𝗻 bridge it, and we are making progress. Just a week ago, #COVAX delivered its 1 billionth dose. In the past 10 weeks, COVAX shipped more vaccines than in the previous 10 months combined"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquityQuote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 15 Jan#COVAX just delivered its 1 billionth #COVID19 vaccine dose. We’re grateful to all our partners and donors for their support and contributions. However, the work is not done. We must ramp up #VaccinEquity efforts and vaccinate 70% of people in ALL countries by mid-2022.Show this thread

"85% of the population of Africa is yet to receive a single dose of vaccine. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘂𝘀? We simply can't end the emergency phase of the pandemic unless we bridge this gap"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquity

"86 Member States across all regions have not been able to reach last year’s target of vaccinating 40% of their populations 34 Member States, most of them in @WHOAFRO and @WHOEMRO, have not been able to vaccinate 10% of their populations"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquity

"Vaccines alone are not the golden ticket out of the #COVID19 pandemic. But there is no path out unless we achieve our shared target of vaccinating 70% of the population of every country by the middle of this year"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquity

"We can only do this with engaged and empowered communities, sustained financing, a focus on equity, and research and innovation"-@DrTedros #EB150 #ACTogether

" It means learning critical lessons and defining new solutions now, not waiting until the pandemic is over"-@DrTedros #EB150

" It means restoring and sustaining essential health services"-@DrTedros #EB150 #ACTogether

" It means the ability to calibrate the use of public health and social measures when needed"-@DrTedros #EB150 #ACTogether

" It means boosting testing and sequencing rates globally to track the virus closely, and monitor the emergence of new variants"-@DrTedros #EB150 #ACTogether

" It means reducing mortality through strong clinical management, beginning with primary health care, and equitable access to diagnostics, oxygen and antivirals at the point of care"-@DrTedros #EB150 #ACTogetherQuote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"What does that look like? It means achieving our target to vaccinate 70% of the population of every country, with a focus on the most at-risk groups"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquityShow this thread

"What does that look like? It means achieving our target to vaccinate 70% of the population of every country, with a focus on the most at-risk groups"-@DrTedros #EB150 #VaccinEquity

"If countries use all of these strategies and tools in a comprehensive way, we can end the acute phase of the pandemic this year – we can end #COVID19 as a global health emergency, and we can do it this year"-@DrTedros #EB150

"It’s difficult, and there are no easy answers, but WHO continues to work nationally, regionally and globally to provide the evidence, the strategies, the tools and the technical and operational support countries need"-@DrTedros #EB150 #COVID19Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"Each country is in a unique situation, and must chart its way out of the acute phase of the #COVID19 pandemic with a careful, stepwise approach"-@DrTedros #EB150 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1485556211323965440?s=20…Show this thread

"Each country is in a unique situation, and must chart its way out of the acute phase of the #COVID19 pandemic with a careful, stepwise approach"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"We recognize that: -everyone is tired of this pandemic -people are tired of restrictions on their movement, & other freedoms -economies & businesses are hurting -many govts are walking a tightrope, attempting to balance what is effective with what is acceptable"-@DrTedrosShow this thread

"We recognize that: -everyone is tired of this pandemic -people are tired of restrictions on their movement, & other freedoms -economies & businesses are hurting -many govts are walking a tightrope, attempting to balance what is effective with what is acceptable"-@DrTedros

"On the contrary, globally the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge. To change the course of the #COVID19 pandemic, we must change the conditions that are driving it"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"There're different scenarios for how the #COVID19 pandemic could play out, & how the acute phase could end – 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗢𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝘁, or that we're in the endgame"-@DrTedros #EB150Show this thread

"There're different scenarios for how the #COVID19 pandemic could play out, & how the acute phase could end – 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗢𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝘁, or that we're in the endgame"-@DrTedros #EB150

"It can't mean that we: -accept almost 50,000 deaths a week, from a preventable & treatable disease -accept an unacceptable burden on our health systems -ignore the consequences of long #COVID19 -gamble on a virus whose evolution we cannot control, nor predict"-@DrTedros #EB150

"...which will provide a platform for preparedness for future pandemics. But learning to live with #COVID19 cannot mean that we give this virus a free ride"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"So where do we stand? Where are we headed? And when will it end? It’s true that we will be living with #COVID19 for the foreseeable future & that we will need to learn to manage it through a sustained & integrated system for acute respiratory diseases..."-@DrTedros #EB150Show this thread

"So where do we stand? Where are we headed? And when will it end? It’s true that we will be living with #COVID19 for the foreseeable future & that we will need to learn to manage it through a sustained & integrated system for acute respiratory diseases..."-@DrTedros #EB150

"The explosion in #COVID19 cases has not been matched by a surge in deaths, although deaths are increasing in all regions, especially in Africa, the region with the least access to vaccines"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"Since Omicron was first identified just 9 weeks ago, more than 80 million #COVID19 cases have been reported to WHO - more than were reported in the whole of 2020"-@DrTedros #EB150 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1485553292683972609?s=20…Show this thread

"Since Omicron was first identified just 9 weeks ago, more than 80 million #COVID19 cases have been reported to WHO - more than were reported in the whole of 2020"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"On average last week, 𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟯 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝘁𝗼 #𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗𝟭𝟵 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟭𝟮 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀"-@DrTedros #EB150Show this thread

"On average last week, 𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟯 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝘁𝗼 #𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗𝟭𝟵 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟭𝟮 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀"-@DrTedros #EB150

"At the time, there were fewer than 100 #COVID19 cases and no deaths reported outside China. Two years later, almost 350 million cases have been reported, and more than 5.5 million deaths – and we know these numbers are an underestimate"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 24 Jan"This Sunday marks two years since I declared a public health emergency of international concern – the highest level of alarm under international law – over the spread of #COVID19"-@DrTedros #EB150 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1222968733829865477?s=20…Show this thread

"This Sunday marks two years since I declared a public health emergency of international concern – the highest level of alarm under international law – over the spread of #COVID19"-@DrTedros #EB150Quote TweetWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHO · 30 Jan 2020BREAKING "For all of these reasons, I am declaring a public health emergency of international concern over the global outbreak of #2019nCoV."-@DrTedrosShow this thread

"Dr Yutaro Setoya, is playing a crucial role in channelling communication between @UN agencies, humanitarian partners & the government, incl. through the use of WHO’s satellite phone, which was one of the few ways to get information in & out of "-@DrTedros #EB150

"A national Emergency Medical Team, trained by WHO, was deployed almost immediately following the eruption, and we are supporting them with medical items, first aid kits, tents, portable toilets, and water filtration equipment"-@DrTedros #EB150 #Tonga https://bit.ly/33lrk6J

"As we speak, WHO is working with our partners to support the response, providing medical expertise and supplies"-@DrTedros #EB150 #Tonga

"As the Chair said, we send our deepest condolences and concern, our warmest greetings and our best wishes to our sisters and brothers in #Tonga, who are facing difficult days as they respond to last week’s volcanic eruption and tsunami"-@DrTedros #EB150

LIVE with @DrTedros: Opening of the 150th session of the WHO Executive Board #EB1502:46:53118.1K viewersWorld Health Organization (WHO)@WHOLIVE with @DrTedros: Opening of the 150th session of the WHO Executive Board #EB150

I do think that if we had systematically kept score the quality of the "advice" dispensed on Twitter would have been much betterQuote TweetDan Kelly@dankellyvo · 24 JanReplying to @dgurdasani1 and @wanderer_jasnahWe need so much more of this revisiting old tweets to see who was arrogantly so sure they were right - only to be 100% wrong. We should then make a rating system and see who gets a zero! (Or lots of low scores)

And this one by @AndreasShruggedQuote TweetAndreas Backhaus@AndreasShrugged · 2 FebMeta-shmeta analysis. They claim they find that lockdowns reduced mortality in Europe and U.S. only by 0.2%. After browsing through their methodology and results though, it's obvious they aren't doing what they claim they're doing and their analyis is deceptive. /1Show this thread

Another great thread is this one by @whippletomQuote TweetTom Whipple@whippletom · 3 FebI'm going through this paper by Johns Hopkins economists, that assesses the efficacy of lockdown in the US and Europe - and concludes it was essentially useless. I'd love thoughts on something I've found, which may well be my misinterpretation 1/x https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf…Show this thread

@videnskabdk has translated their article into English.

I found a bit more information about the journal, MDPI Sustainability, which published the 91.8%-weighted article. Authored by @maoviedogarcia https://academic.oup.com/rev/article/30/3/405/6348133

Central point in the paper, which was weighted 91.8%, is the importance of NON-LINEARITY. The authors conclude: "interventions at higher levels of severity reduce deaths". The "meta study" ignored this and just extracted a linear term. That is "creative".

Turns out @videnskabdk wrote about this “meta study” before me, in which Mathias Heltberg (PostDoc at @uni_copenhagen) makes many of the same comments (in ). He also makes an observation about the MDPI study that I overlooked. It concluded the opposite!

What happened to the 17 = 24 - 7 other papers in the "meta analysis"? Well they are other Tables, such as this one, with some oddities, I might follow up on later.

Where was the study given 91.8% weight published? In MDPI Sustainability. MDPI is a controversial outlet, was classified as predatory journals. Median time from submission to publication is 39 days and MDPI Sustainability published 7,414 article in 2019. Impressive!

Weighting, is the answer. The only study to find lockdowns mortality is given weight 91.8% = 7390/8030, and then you get -0.2% to be the estimate. To summarize: -0.2% META-STUDY ESTIMATE is based on 91.8% ONE STUDY and 8.2% ALL OTHER STUDIES.

The 0.2% is not based on 24 studies, just 7 studies listed in Table 3. But wait a minute. The estimates ranges from -35.3% to +0.1% (highlighted in yellow). How do the authors end up with -0.2%?

Somewhat oddly the number is not 34, but 24. There are 34 studies listed in Table 2, but 10 of them are listed as excluded. Apparently based on some criterion that is missing in Figure 2. OK. But 0.2% based on 24 studies still gives a precise estimate, right? Sadly no.

A meta study often begins with a large set of studies (18,590) then eliminates irrelevant studies, duplicates, etc. This meta study ends up with 34 papers. Thus 0.2% is based on 34 studies, right? Well, actually not.

"Lockdowns only reduced mortality by 0.2%" claims (unreviewed) meta study, and it is getting much press in @FoxNews and the like. A #metastudy aggregate the entire body of evidence. This one is based on 18,590 studies. So, 0.2% must be a credible estimate... Well. No so fast. Quote TweetTimothy Caulfield@CaulfieldTim · 3 FebOdd how one (not peer-reviewed) analysis about lockdowns produced so many headlines. Did this media give same coverage to the many studies (and, to be fair, hard to study well) that have found non-pharmaceutical interventions ("lockdowns") had a big impact?

astonishing

#COVIDCO2 Quick reference table of rebreathed fraction of air from CO2 measurements, assuming office work levels of oxygen consumption

Here’s the rebreathed fraction of air table from the all-knowing @DavidElfstrom

10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.3117

In the United States, the COVID-19 vaccination rate slowed from a peak of 3.6 million vaccinations per day during the week of April 5, 2021, to fewer than 2 million vaccinations per day by the week of May 3, 2021. To boost vaccine uptake, 19 states announced large cash lotteries by July 1, 2021, that were tied to COVID-19 vaccination. For instance, on May 12, 2021, Ohio announced Vax-a-Million, a set of weekly $1 million drawings to be held over 5 weeks for Ohio residents 18 years or older who had received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine dose. One recent study failed to find an association between the Ohio drawings and increased vaccinations.1 In this case-control study, we assessed if announcements of cash drawings in 19 states were associated with increased vaccine uptake by comparing vaccination trends in states that announced drawings with states that did not using a difference-in-differences framework.

Association Between Statewide COVID-19 Lottery Announcements and Vaccinations

https://ventilation-mainz.de More than 300 such systems now installed in German schools...if you find this too complicated a simple #corsirosenthalbox filter system will help and can be built in a matter of minutes...https://youtu.be/PtelygpNJQw... failing that windows open + wear masks!

Today at 4! "COVID-19 Vaccines: Science versus Anti-Science" with @PeterHotez. Presented by @huckinstitutes

Join the discussion by posting your ideas on problems and solutions in volunteer retention and voluntary sector interactions here: https://padlet.com/groupsandcovid19/b87lztp889ivp9np

Sustaining mutual aid and community support groups: Covid-19 and beyond Free online event, 12.30pm November 3rd

https://travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/… The 263 new deaths reported today is the most in a day for almost 8 months. From the 208 new deaths in England, 9 were in individuals below the age of 50, and 1 was a teenager in the 15-19 age range. #Covid19UK #coronavirusuk #DailyCovidUpdate

Government errors gave the virus an advantage, but we can fight back

Why the UK was so vulnerable to another Covid outbreak

We must protect people with comorbidities from cholera in this 1854 epidemic. I went into medicine – consumption specifically – and public health to protect our most at-risk. Did this tweet alone do enough to protect those most at-risk? Because that's all I'm going to do.

this might be my favourite one so far...

CNN emailed to let me know they are “fact checking” this Tweet & writing an article about it. So I want to be clear, the CDC’s own data says those dying with covid have four or more comorbities & instead of 75% of deaths it’s around 95%. See for yourself. https://cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Here is @ClayTravis showing that he didn't read the article.