10.31234/osf.io/e9fq3

To slow the spread of COVID-19, many people now wear face masks in public. Face masks impair our ability to identify faces, which can cause problems for professional staff who must identify offenders and members of the public. Here, we investigate whether performance on a masked face matching task can be improved by training participants to compare diagnostic facial features (the ears and facial marks) – a validated training method that improves matching performance for unmasked faces. We find strong evidence this brief diagnostic feature training, which takes less than two minutes to complete, improves matching performance for masked faces by approximately 5%. A control training course, which was unrelated to face identification, had no effect on matching performance. Our findings demonstrate that comparing the ears and facial marks is an effective means of improving face matching performance for masked faces. These findings have implications for professions that regularly perform face identification.

Masked face identification is improved by diagnostic feature training

Frontline staff must be inoculated by 15 November, with remainder of staff given until 31 March

Qantas mandates full Covid-19 vaccination for all its employees

Another very compelling graph showing that, even in Israel with a massive outbreak, SERIOUS cases among vaccinated are very low (per capita) compared to vast number among unvaccinated. (All 60+ years of age). Pfizer vaccine has been VERY protective against serious disease.

Btw- VERY similar to findings in Israel. Quote Tweet(((Howard Forman)))@thehowie · 19 AugAnother very compelling graph showing that, even in Israel with a massive outbreak, SERIOUS cases among vaccinated are very low (per capita) compared to vast number among unvaccinated. (All 60+ years of age).

Connecticut Vaccine effectiveness in one chart 91% protection against ICU need. 80% protection against hospitalization. 86% of COVID patients in ICU are not fully vaccinated. Get vaccinated. Stay out of the ICU. Stay alive. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Yes, we now face a more formidable foe with Delta. The war has indeed changed. But the tools we need to win it haven’t. So let’s all take a deep breath. The vaccines are working just fine.

That’s why, for the unvaccinated, right now may be the most dangerous time of the pandemic. For the fully immunized, I cover what all the recent news means for you in the piece.

Even with Delta, the likelihood of severe illness if you’re fully immunized is still a small fraction of the likelihood for the unvaccinated. In other words, nearly every COVID-19-related death right now is preventable with vaccination.

Yes, Delta has shaved a few points off the vaccines’ ability to prevent symptomatic illness. But they still perform beyond our most optimistic projections at the thing that matters most: keeping people alive.

We always expected breakthrough infections. And as more people get vaccinated, we expect more infections in vaccinated people. Do you know someone who got Covid despite being fully vaccinated? Probably. Me too. But that doesn’t mean the vaccines aren’t working.

Misleading headlines and leaked slides added to everyones worry. Everyone is asking me: “I’m fully vaccinated…but do the shots still protect me?” Of course they do. The vaccines are incredible, but they’re not perfect. They never were.

I understand everyone’s concern. Delta cases are surging nationally. Some pharmaceutical companies say their vaccines hold up, while others are less sure. And in the aftermath of the Provincetown outbreak, hot vax summer started feeling more like hot mask summer overnight.

Are you fully vaccinated but worried about Delta? You’re not alone. In my latest for @TheAtlantic, I explain why everyone needs to relax. The vaccines are still working just fine.

time lapse of community prevelence from 7/1 to 8/1

Here is what happens when you open at 50%.Quote TweetBNO Newsroom@BNODesk · 6 AugMore than 1% of Florida's population tested positive for COVID-19 during the past 2 weeks https://newsnodes.com/us_state/FL

NYT FTWQuote TweetJennifer Berkshire@BisforBerkshire · 6 AugReplying to @JennBinisThis paragraph from today’s NYT almost killed me

This is such a recipe for disaster. I feel for parents & kids in TexasQuote TweetWFAA@wfaa · 6 AugOn Thursday, the Texas Education Agency released new guidance for schools on how to handle positive COVID-19 cases. More: https://bit.ly/3jkLzFi

10.1136/bmj.n1960

The delta variant is now the dominant form of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and many other countries. Chris Baraniuk asks how effective the leading vaccines are against this new threat

Covid-19: How effective are vaccines against the delta variant?

Covid “truthers” might be averse to to getting vaccinated and wearing masks, but they are willing treat their Covid infections by drinking horse-strength tubes of medication meant to deworm horses.

Vaccine skeptics are taking horse-strength dewormer to treat Covid, accidentally poisoning themselves

More than 96% of US doctors have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19.

Vaccines work in a gif update: COVID19 cases versus vaccination rates in US states through time. The Delta variant effect can be seen clearly starting in July. States with lower vaccination rates are affected much worse.

10.3389/fpsyg.2021.682837

Investigating Links Between Fear of COVID-19, Neuroticism, Social Networks Use Disorder, and Smartphone Use Disorder Tendencies

10.3389/fpsyg.2021.573590

Due to the impact of COVID-19, universities are forced to suspend their classes, which begin to depend on the usage of online teaching. To investigate the relationship among e-learning self-efficacy, monitoring, willpower, attitude, motivation, strategy, and the e-learning effectiveness of college students in the context of online education during the outbreak of COVID-19. A 519 first- to fifth-year undergraduate students from a medical university were selected for the research in this study. Structural equation model (SEM) was used for a data analysis, which led to the results showing that: (1) e-learning self-efficacy and monitoring have significant positive influence on e-learning strategy, and indirectly influence e-learning effectiveness through e-learning strategy; (2) e-learning willpower and attitude have a significant positive influence on e-learning motivations, and indirectly influence e-learning effectiveness through e-learning motivation and strategy; (3) e-learning motivation is having significant influence on e-learning effectiveness, while e-learning strategy is playing a mediating role; (4) There is a significant positive correlation between e-learning strategy and e-learning effectiveness; and (5) The presence of e-learning experience has a moderating influence on e-learning effectiveness as well as its influential factors. Results from this study provide the necessary information as to how higher education institutions and students can enhance students’ effectiveness of the e-learning system in order to support the usage of online technologies in the learning and teaching process. These results offer important implications for online learning effectiveness.

The Empirical Study of College Students’ E-Learning Effectiveness and Its Antecedents Toward the COVID-19 Epidemic Environment

In company memo, CEO says there is ‘zero tolerance policy’ for reporting to the office without Covid-19 inoculation

CNN fires three employees for coming to work unvaccinated

15 September deadline could be pushed up if vaccine receives final US regulatory approval by FDA

‘We need a healthy and ready force’: Pentagon to mandate Covid vaccine for US military

N serology at end of follow up could solve problem of bias from unobserved infectionsAnalyzing Vaccine Trials in Epidemics With Mild and Asymptomatic InfectionAbstract. Vaccine efficacy against susceptibility to infection (VES), regardless of symptoms, is an important endpoint of vaccine trials for pathogens with a hiacademic.oup.com

Baseline testing helps but doesn’t solve the problem if some infections undetected during follow up. So artifacts like this and heterogeneous frailty could contribute to estimates of waning in Pfizer RCT

More people have died of COVID in 2021 than in 2020. How are we in “a better place”?Quote TweetKate Sullivan@KateSullivanDC · 6 AugJen Psaki on the Delta variant: “This is not March 2020, or even January 2021. We're not going to lock down our economy or our schools because our country's in a much stronger place than when we took office.”

With test positivity > 22% you can imagine what the real case N is

If true, this indicates release for tomorrow will be a new single day record of 23,652. Will confirm after 5 pm todayQuote TweetWESH 2 News@WESH · 6 AugFlorida reports more than 134,500 new COVID cases this week, surpassing last week's high https://wesh.com/article/new-cases-covid-19-florida-surge-weekly-high/37246101?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

And the role of luck, particularly in the early stages of an outbreak... 4/4

The subtle anchoring in the suggestion that the death of 0.2% of a population was a light outcome... 3/

The suggestion that some countries could use border closures in response to a similar pandemic... 2/

Reading with hindsight, some interesting details in this 2018 piece on the places that escaped the 1918 pandemic... 1/

Steep drop in UK cases is over. 7-day moving average now back to 26.7K/day and rising. To those who said that this was over, it is not. To those who said that lifting restrictions on July 19th would have no effect, it may well have had effect. Be humble. Too many unknowns.

10.1136/bmj.n1963

A group of junior doctors from Scotland have written to young people in their age group to try to ease concerns they may have about receiving the covid-19 vaccine.

Covid-19: Junior doctors write to young people to acknowledge vaccine concerns

10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.2803

Dignity lies at the heart of our shared humanity. The Latin root of the word dignity, dignitātem, suggesting “merit” and “worth,” originally applied to persons of noble birth, or persons holding high rank. To this day, we sometimes equate dignity with social standing and bearing.

Elevating Dignity as a Goal for Health System Achievement in the COVID-19 Era and in the Future

Malta, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Ireland overtake UK in fully jabbed percentages

Six EU states overtake UK Covid vaccination rates as Britain’s rollout slows

The delta variant is very contagious. Here’s how epidemiologists are thinking through how to control it.

How We’ll Know It’s Finally Time to Stop Masking

A single dose of the Covid-19 vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is highly effective in preventing severe illness and death from the Delta and Beta variants of the coronavirus, data from a clinical trial in South Africa suggest.

New data suggest J. & J. vaccine works against Delta and recipients don’t need a booster shot.

10.1136/bmj.n1903

New English law will make vaccination a condition of employment for eligible care home workers, following similar moves in Italy, France, and Greece for healthcare staff. This is reasonable, argues Michael Parker, because care institutions have a duty to protect patients; but Helen Bedford, Michael Ussher, and Martine Stead worry that such a blunt approach is unnecessary and could be counterproductive

Should covid vaccination be mandatory for health and care staff?

In discussing future pandemic plans (as well as plans for COVID in coming months), it will be crucial to distinguish between what are genuine and perceived constraints - because it will be impossible to define what is optimal without this distinction. 9/9

As @hannahhec put it last March: "constraints may be real, but they may be moveable, either by the mobilisation of resources, or by updating the mental model about what is possible". https://channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-coronavirus-best-practices-singapore-success-strategy-12585706… 8/

There's also the question of scaled up testing regardless of symptoms. Places like China and South Korea did a lot early on, while others like Japan and Taiwan did relatively little (e.g. from last Aug: https://international.thenewslens.com/article/139685). Again, need to consider underlying reasons. 7/

Another topic is border measures - UK measures currently much stricter than most of Europe, but not as nearly as strict as some places as Asia Pacific. This constraint has shifted quite a lot - yet not fully in many countries. We should consider why. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1389940764587745281?s=20… 6/Quote Tweet

Stringency and sustainability can make big difference to outcomes. During the 1918 pandemic in US, the introduction of NPIs reduced impact - but they didn't remain in place for long and epidemics still ended with accumulation of immunity, e.g. https://pnas.org/content/104/18/7582… 5/

Adam Kucharski@AdamJKucharski·25 MayReplying to @AdamJKucharskiIn contrast, attitudes to duration/stringency of NPIs have shifted dramatically. Look back to Feb 2020 & prominent figures were raising human rights concerns about China lockdown. But by mid-March, countries had abandoned earlier perceived constraints: https://theconversation.com/what-we-learned-from-tracking-every-covid-policy-in-the-world-157721… 4/

It's worth reading these papers on the response in Taiwan (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689…) and Korea (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765252…). Should more countries include these data-intense approaches in future pandemic plans? Or does reluctance to date reflect an immovable constraint? 3/

Some apparent local constraints have persisted throughout the pandemic. For example if you look globally, there are still notable differences in approaches to surveillance and quarantine... 2/Quote TweetAdam Kucharski@AdamJKucharski · 1 May 2020As many countries start to expand isolation and tracing efforts, it's worth highlighting a couple of important aspects of the response in places like Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong: surveillance infrastructure and strict enforcement. 1/Show this thread

One thing that has hugely shaped countries' response to COVID, and which I don't think gets enough discussion: genuine constraints and perceived constraints. A thread... 1/

An update on the B.1.617.2 lineage. I'm concerned. Not because of reduced vaccine efficacy, but simply because a further increase in transmissibility above B.1.1.7 would be quite bad news for countries where vaccination is low and for hopes of near-elimination everywhere.Quote TweetJohn Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch · 27 MayNEW: B.1617.2 is fuelling a third wave in the UK, with not only cases but also hospital admissions rising. Vaccines will make this wave different to those that have come before, but it remains a concern, and one that other countries will soon face. Thread on everything we know:Show this thread

Weekly update This will be the last US domestic visualization Details -> https://github.com/hsayama/COVID-19-geographical-animations

@skellydonal @ShonaCMoore

18/Many thanks to the many healthcare workers who took part, @DHSCgovuk who funded the study, plus our other funders @UKCICstudy @UKRI_News @NIHRresearch

17/These immunology results are at a population level, not individual, & there is huge variation in responses. Don’t worry if you got 2 vaccines on a “short” interval – 2 jabs are great! Please accept vaccines when you are offered them

16/Importantly we do not know yet what this means clinically for protection from infection or severe disease over time after the 2nd dose. We also do not know yet whether responses are more durable after “long” interval dosing – we will follow up

15/Unlike neutralising antibodies, T cell responses to spike did not demonstrate immune escape for the Delta variant in our assay. Go T cells!

14/… But T cells were again well maintained over time, just like after a single dose

13/Finally, we looked at what happens over time in #SARSCoV2 naïve people who had the “short” course dosing. Neutralising antibody levels had dropped significantly by week 13 after the 2nd dose…

12/We looked more closely at the character of the T cells and found the “long” interval resulted in more “helper” CD4+ T cells in SARS-CoV-2 naïve people. This may be an important factor in explaining the better antibody responses we see in this group

11/What about T cells? Again, we saw a different pattern to antibodies. The “long” interval did not result in higher T cell responses. In fact, the T cell response after the 2nd dose was slightly lower in SARS-CoV-2 naïve people (grey) receiving the “long” dosing regimen

10/This is mirrored in neutralisation assays, where in #SARSCoV2 naïve people, the “long” interval results in higher neutralising antibodies after the 2nd dose, including against the beta, gamma and delta variants

9/Does the dosing interval have an impact on your ‘final’ immune response? In #SARSCoV2 naïve people (grey), the ”long” interval results in higher antibody levels after the full course compared to the “short” interval; there is no difference in those previously infected (red)

7/This is mirrored by binding antibodies (easier to measure than neutralising antibodies) in #SARSCoV2 naïve people (grey). In those previously infected (red), we still see a drop during the “long” interval, but to a lesser extent and antibodies are maintained at a higher level

8/Interestingly (well we thought so as T cell enthusiasts), the T cell response behaved differently and was maintained after 1 dose during this “long” dosing interval in both #SARSCoV2 naïve (grey) and previously infected (red) individuals

6/In #SARSCoV2 naïve people who had “long” interval dosing neutralising antibody levels in blood (using ‘live’ virus by Screaton lab) drop during this interval. By 10 weeks, neutralising activity against the Delta variant is minimal, but a good response is seen after the 2nd dose

5/Firstly, to put our results in context, in the @PHE_uk #SIRENstudy led by @SMHopkins sustained protection following a single Pfizer dose was seen in healthcare workers out to 12 weeks. Caveat: this was at a time when the Alpha variant was dominant

4)What happens to antibodies and T cells during this “long” interval? 1)Is there a difference in the immune responses after the 2nd Pfizer dose in people getting the “short” (average 3 weeks) compared to “long” (average 10 weeks) dosing regimen?

3/Extension of the interval between vaccine doses for the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was introduced in the UK to accelerate population coverage with a single dose. Recruiting 503 healthcare workers across 5 UK centres, we set out to answer some questions...

2/Led by @rebecca37704429 and @susannajd with Paul Klenerman and Miles Carroll (not on twitter!)@DHSCgovuk @UKCICstudy @PHE_uk @stephanie200586 @chrisjaduncan @eleanorbarnesox @alexrichter3 @sarahlrj @LanceTurtle and more!

1/Our PITCH consortium preprint on immune responses during different Pfizer BNT162b2 dosing regimens is out! https://pitch-study.org TL;DR get both doses of whichever vaccine you are offered

Just to correct one misconception from my thread - many of you understood that we think there is no waning immunity. This analysis does not reject the waning hypothesis, it just shows that the vaccines are still highly effective even with possible waning.

So to summarize, the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases and probably also symptomatic diseases, even for those vaccinated early.

This is what we got wrong. This “wave” started from cities with high vaccination rate and couldn’t “find” unvaccined adults at risk. The denominator we need to use until mid-July is >95% vaccination rate and not the country’s average.

We can see that cities on the lower quartile had low number of cases until recently, but since mid-July, most cases are coming from those cities.

So why does it look like there is no difference until mid-July? @AArgoetti looked at the trends of cases in cities stratified by their vaccination rates.

and now there are almost 3 times more daily new unvaccined severe cases. Looking at this plot, it seems that the R in the vaccined group is very close to 1, but in the last 10 days its almost 4 in the unvaccined group. We think its as expected with no mitigations beyond vaccines.

See this graph. Until mid-July, the number (normalized to group size) of severe cases in the 65+ group was more or less similar between vaccined and unvaccined. This seemed troubling. But in the last 10 days trends have changed,

You’ve probably seen reports from Israel on low vaccine effectiveness in this wave. Is it because of Delta? Waning immunity? We think the reason is mostly that we got the denominator wrong.Quote TweetDvir Aran@dvir_a · 21 JulAre we seeing immunity waning in Israel? The MoH shared some raw data, and together with @geller_mic we tried to get a qualitative answer to this question. TL;DR – it seems that there is immunity waning, increasing risk of infection of early vaccinated by ~80%. ==>Show this thread

Vaccine impact in Israel: changing trends. Analysis thread with @AArgoetti. From about a month and a half ago we are experiencing a new “Delta” burst. Cases are accumulating, and more and more severe patients are in the hospitals.Quote TweetAmir Argoetti@AArgoetti · 27 Julשינוי מגמה בארץ - הגל ״תפס״ את הלא מחוסנים. @dvir_a ואנוכי הסתכלנו על המידע העדכני וניסינו לנתח את המידע הגולמי על מנת שנוכל להעריך טוב יותר את מצב התחלואה ואת יעילות החיסון. שרשור! >Show this thread

Update:

And in case you're interested in more details on transmissibility of the Delta variant, here are some useful references: https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509… from @fcampbell_ and the @WHO Health Emergencies Team https://bit.ly/react-1-round-12… from @SRileyIDD and the REACT study teamREACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased...Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations...medrxiv.org

My take (4/4): Please get vaccinated when you're eligible. For now, continue to mask, sanitize, distance, ventilate, and if you can #stayhome. We owe it to each other and the health workers who have worked tirelessly throughout the pandemic and still have a long way to go.

My take (3/4): The last 15 months have been brutal for those of us in SA, as in most of the world. The next few months will continue to try us. Vaccination brings our best hope of making COVID manageable.

My take (2/4): The Delta variant dominates transmission in SA. Delta is ~2X as transmissible as the original virus and ~1.5X as transmissible as Beta. With what is likely <50% population-level immunity, we are in a similar boat to a year ago regarding transmission potential.

My take (1/4): Overall, seroprevalence in SA appears to be around 43%. The percent of people protected by natural immunity and vaccination may be higher. The test used in this study does not detect vaccine-derived antibodies, and the estimates could reflect some antibody waning.

The study is primarily funded by @theSANBS and @The_WCBS. #SACEMA and its researchers are funded by @dsigovza and @NRF_News. The study used the @Roche Elecsys platform, which detects antibodies produced by natural infection that bind to the N protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Juliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector·28 JunThe new data are based on samples collected in May 2021, using the same methods as described in the earlier preprint from Sykes et al: https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-233375/v1… The study was led by @Marionvermeulen with data analysis by @laurettemhlanga, Dr Eduard Grebe, and Prof Alex Welte.Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal,...Background: Population-level estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) is a crucial epidemiological indicator for tracking the Covid-19 epidemic. Such data are...researchsquare.com

Juliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector·28 Jun@theSANBS, @The_WCBS, and #SACEMA have released new information on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in South Africa, including in the 5 provinces for which data were not previously available. #NotYetPeerReviewed A full preprint will be released soon.

Worth reading thread below – and here's current epidemic curve for comparison:Quote TweetJuliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector · 28 Jun@theSANBS, @The_WCBS, and #SACEMA have released new information on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in South Africa, including in the 5 provinces for which data were not previously available. #NotYetPeerReviewed A full preprint will be released soon.Show this thread

WITH more than half of adults in the UK having received two doses of vaccine against covid-19, the UK government has decided that the time has come to lift most restrictions in England and get on with life alongside the virus. Since 19 July, people in England have been free to meet up with whoever they want, wherever and whenever they like, for the first time since November 2020, and nightclubs have reopened for the first time since March 2020. Masks and …

What life will be like now England's covid-19 restrictions have lifted