The U.S. Needs an Operation Warp Speed for Rapid COVID-19 Testing <div class="inner-container"> <img src="https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/covid-rapid-test-binaxnow.jpg" alt="A BinaxNOW rapid COVID-19 test made by Abbott Laboratories, in Tacoma, Wash., on Feb. 3, 2021." title="A BinaxNOW rapid COVID-19 test made by Abbott Laboratories, in Tacoma, Wash., on Feb. 3, 2021."> </div>

10.15585/mmwr.mm7037e3external icon.

What is already known about this topic? mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalization. What is added by this report? During February 1–August 6, 2021, vaccine effectiveness among U.S. veterans hospitalized at five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers was 87%. mRNA COVID-19 vaccines remain highly effective, including during periods of widespread circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. Vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19–related hospitalization was 80% among adults aged ≥65 years compared with 95% among adults aged 18–64 years. What are the implications for public health practice? To protect against COVID-19–related hospitalization, all eligible persons should receive COVID-19 vaccination. Additional studies are needed to understand differences in COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness across age groups.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization — Five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers, United States, February 1–August 6, 2021

10/ We've got to reset expectations about what COVID vaccines can or can't do. Our goal should be to turn COVID into a more benign disease like the flu... and we can do that through VACCINATION.

9/ Your risk of getting SARS-CoV-2 infection is a composite of: - immunity elicited by vaccination - how much virus is circulating in your community And how much virus is circulating in your community depends on what other people do, especially: - masking - vaccination

8/ Now let's say the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is 18 per 100K among UNvaccinated persons. This is the overall incidence in NYC right now. With a vaccine that's 90% effective against infection, you'd have an incidence of <2 per 100K among vaccinated persons.

7/ Let's say the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is 200 per 100K among UNvaccinated persons, as it is in some KY & TN counties right now. With a vaccine that's 90% effective against infection, you'd have an incidence of 20 per 100K among vaccinated persons.

6/ Vaccine effectiveness represents a RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION, not complete risk elimination.

5/ Remember:

4/ A vaccine doesn't have to induce sterilizing immunity to be highly effective.

3/ We might see something approaching sterilizing immunity SOON AFTER COVID vaccination, https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm… but NOT long-term.

2/ We used to think vaccines for measles and smallpox provided sterilizing immunity. But as our tools to measure viruses have gotten better, we've learned that low-level infections can still occur after vaccination:

1/ Great piece by @TheAtlantic's @KatherineJWu on the myth of sterilizing immunity: https://theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/sterilizing-immunity-myth-covid-19-vaccines/620023/… Sterilizing immunity: when the immune system 100% COMPLETELY blocks a virus or other pathogen from infecting someone

Many universities now require masks and vaccinations – and some schools have moved instruction online, at least for now

‘I’m nervous’: US colleges wrestle with Covid safety as fall semester begins

President Joseph Biden on Sept. 9, 2021, unveiled his revamped strategy to confront the pandemic, outlining an approach that focuses heavily on attempting to reduce the number of unvaccinated Americans.

Biden’s pandemic plan overlooks mask mandates and vulnerable populations

Nine in ten eligible adults in the Republic of Ireland have been fully vaccinated, the Irish health service has said.

Covid-19: 90% of adults in Republic of Ireland now fully vaccinated

On Thursday, President Joe Biden released his much-anticipated six-part plan to stem the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Vaccine distribution matters, surely. But as we have seen so acutely over the last two months, distribution alone is insufficient to stem the spread of Covid-19. The new plan to combat Covid-19 doubles down on many of the things that we know work to reduce the spread of the virus -- vaccines, testing and masking. But it also leaves some holes.

Biden's six-point Covid plan leaves some holes

Recent NHS performance data show that the NHS is currently under huge pressures. Although lifting all coronavirus restrictions in England on 19 July 2021 hasn’t resulted in the feared 100,000 covid cases a day, the NHS is still nevertheless under pressure, with NHS leaders saying that it feels like “winter in summer.”

John Middleton: Is the NHS prepared for the coming winter? 

Meta-analysis of 24 vaccine incentive programs suggest they don't work or effects are so small we can't precisely measure them (practically null)

What was claimed Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said he doesn’t need the vaccine because he’s healthy. Our verdict This is a misquote from an interview from December. Albert Bourla said he didn’t want to take the vaccine ahead of more vulnerable recipients. He has since been double vaccinated.

Chris Preddie wrong about Pfizer CEO not taking Covid vaccine

10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00474-6

The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in India in December, 2020. Since then, the delta variant has rapidly become the main variant in some regions, including in the UK. As of July 27, 2021, the UK had reported the highest number of SARS-CoV-2 delta variant cases, with 167 856 patients.1StatisticaNumber of SARS-CoV-2 delta variant cases worldwide as of July 27, 2021, by country or territory.https://www.statista.com/statistics/1245971/number-delta-variant-worldwide-by-countryDate: July 27, 2021Date accessed: July 27, 2021Google ScholarIn The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Katherine Twohig and colleagues2Twohig KA Nyberg T Zaidi A et al.Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study.Lancet Infect Dis. 2021; Aug 27; https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00475-8Google Scholar report that patients infected with the delta variant had more than twice the risk of hospital admission and an increased risk of hospital attendance (emergency care attendance or hospital admission) compared with individuals infected with the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. Importantly, Twohig and colleagues observed that among non-vaccinated patients, those infected with the delta variant were more than twice as likely as those infected with the alpha variant to be admitted to hospital. However, this study did not investigate whether there was an association between mortality and infection with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. The findings of this study are important in the context of the worldwide spread of the delta variant and the barriers to achieving high vaccination rates against SARS-CoV-2 in many world regions.

Importance of epidemiological factors in the evaluation of transmissibility and clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants

10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00475-8

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes.MethodsThis cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status.FindingsIndividual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low.InterpretationThis large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.FundingMedical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research.

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

What was claimed A Facebook post shows a screengrab from a government website with a list of reported deaths and side effects caused by the Covid-19 vaccines. Our verdict The image in this post is mocked-up and does not actually appear on the site, though it uses figures which do appear there.

Screenshot of website about Covid-19 vaccine side effects is fake

Six key words to remember when interpreting the selected variables in a multivariable analysis 1. Don’t 2. Pretend 3. They 4. Are 5. Causally 6. Important

Speaking generates more aerosols than breathing. Don’t take your mask of to speak!Quote TweetMaya Chavez@maya_chavez_ · 30 AugEvery single admin has pulled their mask off to address the staff.

Eight notable variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been found since September 2020. What do we know about them so far? This roundup includes a video showing how the first four variants of concern spread across the world #BMJInfographic http://ow.ly/roYK50G0lI6

there is a literature on arguments from ignorance (viewed from a Bayesian perspective) that can help here, I think https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364661320300206…Quote TweetNate Silver@NateSilver538 · 29 AugIn general I'm suspicious of the term "no evidence", which is rarely literally true. When people say that it often means they're setting the bar extremely high because they're clinging to arbitrarily-chosen null hypotheses, sometimes for political reasons. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1398013330774704133?s=19…Show this thread

Today, Mississippi surpassed New York in total coronavirus deaths per capita. For a long time, I didn't think we'd ever see any state end up worse than New York or New Jersey. One year ago today, Mississippi's death rate was less than half of New York's. https://nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

the problem is the leaders, the media figures, the physicians who know better but would rather get in on the griftQuote TweetJonathan Howard@JHowardBrainMD · 31 AugBook review from 1911 of amazing book called “quackery and nostrums” and why no one should have been surprised many chose ivermectin and such over vaccines. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/448782…Show this thread

For anyone who wants to know the source of this information, every element of it comes from the Ontario open datasets on vaccination, which are published daily (although the hospital/ICU data isn't updated on Sun./Mon.). https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario

Explaining: The unvaccinated group should have much (much) higher natural protection from COVID by virtue of being younger on average; the fact this group is showing up in hospital much more often *despite this* tells you the vaccine is even more effective than we know.

That said: We don't have an age breakdown of these cases, and the huge demographic difference between the vaccinated group (much older + almost all seniors) unvaccinated (much younger + all young children) means this effectiveness number is 100% certainly higher even than this.

Here's the Tues. update of Ontario cases and hospitalization by vax status, w. pop. adjustment, the minimum needed to interpret this. The data shows the vaccine having a 92-95% effect on serious illness. We now have three weeks of data on this, and the result seems consistent.

Replying to @Marta_Mang and @chrstn_eSciBehReconfiguring behavioral science for crisis knowledge management: Help us foster proper science without the drag.scibeh.org

Marta.@Marta_Mang·26 Aughttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33949091/ Do I know anyone who's worked on something similar to what @chrstn_e and colleagues describe here, ideally in the #cogsci/#BehaviouralScience field? #AcademicTwitter #AcademicChatterStrength is in engagement: The rise of an online scientific community during the COVID-19 pandemic...Many scientists, confined to home office by COVID-19, have been gathering in online communities, which could become viable alternatives to physical meetings and conferences.pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Quote TweetAAP News@AAPNews · 31 AugMyocarditis risk 37 times higher for children with COVID-19 than uninfected peers, according to a new @CDCMMWR: http://ow.ly/8HDS50G1Sjb

Oops the graph in the first tweet has some double-counting in December. Here's the corrected version:

Here's the python code to replicate the analysis. https://gist.github.com/jph00/635082450a8c9491dee52d5158c790a6

We now know that Delta is much more severe than previous variants. However we don't yet know what the impact on children will be, especially long term.Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared...This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results...thelancet.com

This terrifying observation has previously been hidden by a lack of reporting of cases by age group. Thanks to vaccinations, cases amongst adults have been lower than the previous wave. But children are totally unprotected. Delta is ripping through them.

Jeremy Howard@jeremyphoward·30 AugI've been analyzing the UK covid data and I've just discovered something shocking. Cases in chidrens in England have just smashed all-time highs. Nearly double what they've ever been before. And rising VERY rapidly. Schools are about to reopen. With far fewer restrictions.

Someone asked me for a link, I should have included it, my fault, sorry. It's from here: https://web.iastate.edu/safety/updates/covid19

This, at Iowa State, is bananas.

Moreover, the case positivity is just getting worse and worse, nothing like this has been seen in over a year.

(and of course the true number of cases is much higher than reported given the high case positivity)

Cases may not be as high as in other states and vaccination (43% fully) is not as low as the gulf states, but this is the type of denial that lets COVID multiply.

Case positivity has reached this high even with a rise in testing.

Oklahoma - leading the nation in searches for ivermectin.

Oklahoma, this is bad. Case positivity - 81.98% Standing far above another other US state. 1/4

10.31234/osf.io/rpc2g

Recently the Netherlands saw a substantial increase in pro-COVID-19 vaccination intention (48 to 75%). Using qualitative methods we identified vaccination beliefs and contextual factors informing this increase. Quantitative methods confirm that intentions were a function of beliefs: people with stronger intention to vaccinate were motivated most by protecting others and reopening society, those reluctant were mostly concerned by (unknown long-term) side effects. We demonstrate that belief shifts track intentional shifts, and offer insights for improving pro-vaccination campaigns.

Understanding a national increase in COVID-19 vaccination intention: a mixed methodological approach

10.31234/osf.io/cgznf

Purpose: Preliminary research early in the COVID-19 pandemic suggested children appeared to be at increased risk for child maltreatment, particularly as parents struggled with mental health and economic strains. To identify the potential affective elements that may contribute to such increased maltreatment risk, the current study focused on whether maternal worry about children’s behavior specifically and maternal anger were related to increased risk for neglect or physical or psychological aggression six months into the pandemic. Method: The racially diverse sample included 193 mothers who completed an online survey during late September-early October 2020. Results: Mothers’ reported increases in neglect and physical and psychological aggression during the pandemic were significantly related with established measures of maltreatment risk. Furthermore, path models indicated that maternal anger and worry about children’s behavior, as well as their interaction, were significantly related to indicators of physical aggression risk and neglect during the pandemic, but only maternal anger related to increased psychological aggression during the pandemic. Conclusions: Maternal worry and anger about children’s behavior may be exacerbating risk for maltreatment under the stressful conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings suggest affective reactions of both parental worry and anger focused on child behavior warrants greater empirical attention and consideration in intervention efforts.

Role of Emotion in Child Maltreatment Risk during the COVID-19 Pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/7rb2m

It has been widely argued that social media users with low digital literacy – who lack fluency with basic technological concepts related to the internet – are more likely to fall for online misinformation, but surprisingly little research has examined this association empirically. In a large survey experiment involving true and false news posts about politics and COVID-19, we find that digital literacy is indeed an important predictor of the ability to tell truth from falsehood when judging headline accuracy. However, digital literacy is not a significant predictor of users’ intentions to share true versus false headlines. This observation reinforces the disconnect between accuracy judgments and sharing intentions, and suggests that interventions beyond merely improving digital literacy are likely needed to reduce the spread of misinformation online.

Digital literacy and susceptibility to misinformation

10.31234/osf.io/ukcva

The fans’ importance in sports is acknowledged by the term ‘the 12th man’, a figurative extra player for the home team. Sport teams are indeed more successful when they play in front of their fans than when they play away. The supposed mechanism behind this phenomenon, termed Home Advantage (HA), is that fans’ support spurs home players to better performance and biases referees, which in turn determines the outcome. The inference about the importance of fans’ support is, however, indirect as there is normally a 12th man of this kind, even if it is an opponent’s. The current pandemic, which forced sporting activities to take place behind closed doors, provides the necessary control condition. Here we employ a novel conceptual HA model on a sample of over 4,000 soccer matches from 12 European leagues, some played in front of spectators and some in empty stadia, to demonstrate that fans are indeed responsible for the HA. However, the absence of fans reduces the HA by a third, as the home team’s performance suffers and the officials’ bias disappears. The current pandemic reveals that the figurative 12th man is no mere fan hyperbole, but is in fact the most important player in the home team.

The (Missing) 12th Man: Home Advantage Mediated (HAM) by Referee Bias and Team Performance During Covid

10.31234/osf.io/c5x97

The rise of the novel COVID-19 virus has made face masks commonplace items around the globe. Recent research found that face masks significantly impair emotion recognition on isolated faces. However, faces are rarely seen in isolation and the body is also a key cue for emotional portrayal. Here, therefore, we investigated the impact of face masks on emotion recognition when surveying the full body. Stimuli expressing anger, happiness, sadness, and fear were selected from Van den Stock and de Gelder’s (2011) BEAST stimuli set. Masks were added to these images and participants were asked to recognise the emotion and give a confidence level for that decision for both the masked and unmasked stimuli. We found that whilst emotion recognition was generally impaired by face masks, this result was entirely driven by Happy stimuli, leading to the conclusion that contrary to some work viewing faces in isolation, face masks only appear to impair the recognition of happiness when the whole body is present. Contrary to actual performance, confidence levels were found to decline during the Mask condition across all emotional conditions. This research suggests that the impact of masks on emotion recognition may not be as pronounced as previously thought, as long as the whole body is also visible.

Are face masks a problem for emotion recognition? Not when the whole body is visible.

10.31234/osf.io/2xr3m

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk levels in two samples of individuals with a history of sexual offending (N = 1,081). Study 1 found reasonable correspondence between BARR-2002R scores and four of the five standardized risk levels (no Level V). Study 2 found that the profiles of individuals in Levels II, III, and IV were mostly consistent with expectations; however, individuals in the lowest risk level (Level I) had more criminogenic needs than expected based on the original descriptions of the Five-Levels. The Five-Level system was mostly successful when applied to BARR-2002R. Revisions to this system, or the inclusion of putatively dynamic risk factors and protective factors, may be required to improve alignment with the information provided by certain risk tools.

Improving our Risk Communication: Standardized Risk Levels for BARR-2002R

10.31234/osf.io/x37c5

Misinformation is widespread and consequential. Thus, identifying psychological characteristics that might mitigate misinformation susceptibility represents a timely and pragmatically important issue. One construct that may be particularly relevant to misinformation susceptibility is intellectual humility (IH). As such, we examined whether IH is related to less misinformation susceptibility, what aspects of IH best predict misinformation susceptibility, and whether these relations are unique to IH. Across three samples, IH tended to manifest small-to-medium negative relations with misinformation susceptibility (pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, and fake news). IH measures assessing both intrapersonal and interpersonal features tended to be stronger correlates of misinformation susceptibility than measures assessing either intrapersonal or interpersonal features in isolation. These relations tended to remain robust after controlling for covariates (honesty-humility, cognitive reflection, political ideology). Future research should leverage our results to examine whether IH interventions not only reduce misinformation susceptibility but also lessen its appeal for those already committed to misinformation.

Clarifying the Relations between Intellectual Humility and Misinformation Susceptibility

10.31234/osf.io/amhvx

This is a summary report of survey data from two cohorts of first year university students at a metropolitan university in Australia: 2019 (i.e., pre-COVID-19) and in 2020 (during the first wave of COVID-19). The results show clear detrimental impact of COVID-19 on multiple measures of stress, mental health and wellbeing, loneliness. The only measure that did not worsen was risky drinking. A sense of belonging to the university and the use of coping strategies were associated with better mental health.

Dingle & Han 2021 The Effect of COVID-19 on Australian University Students' Mental Health

10.31234/osf.io/sq9yc

Background. Vaccine hesitancy poses one of the biggest threats to global health. Informing people about the collective benefit of vaccination due to community immunity has great potential in increasing vaccination intentions. Novel communication formats are needed to increase people’s interest in and engagement with such information, boosting the intervention’s effectiveness. This research investigates the potential for virtual reality (VR) to strengthen participants’ understanding of community immunity, and therefore, their intention to get vaccinated. Methods and Findings. In this pre-registered lab-in-the-field intervention study, participants (n= 222) were recruited in a public park. They either experienced the collective benefit of community immunity in a gamified immersive virtual reality environment (2/3 of sample), or received the same information via text and images (1/3 of sample). Before and after the intervention, participants indicated their intention to take up a hypothetical vaccine for a new COVID-19 strain (0–100 scale) and belief in vaccination as a collective responsibility (1–7 scale). After the VR treatment, for participants with imperfect vaccination intention, intention increases by 9.3 points (95% CI:7.0 to 11.5, p <0.001). The text-and-image treatment increases vaccination intention by 3.3 points (difference in effects: 5.8, 95% CI: 2.0 to 9.5, p= 0.003). The VR treatment also increases collective responsibility by 0.82 points (95% CI: 0.37 to 1.27, p <0.001). A key limitation of the study is that it measures vaccination attitudes, but not behavior. Conclusions. VR is an effective tool for increasing vaccination intention, more so than text and images, by eliciting collective responsibility. The results suggest that VR interventions can be applied “in the wild” and may thus provide a complementary method for vaccine advocacy

Virtual reality reduces COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the wild

10.31234/osf.io/zyw6c

The purpose of this research was to determine the relationship between fear of COVID-19 and anxiety in the Honduran population. This was made through a quantitative methodology, using the Fear of COVID-19 Scale (FCV-19S) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7). The sample consisted of 595 Honduran respondents, with a mean age of 25.10 years. The results suggest that female participants reported significantly higher scores in fear of COVID-19 and anxiety than men. A linear regression model determined that fear of COVID-19, sex and age were significant predictors of anxiety scores. The overall model had an r2 of 0.325, with fear of COVID-19 accounting for 29.9% of the variance in GAD-7 scores. The resulting model has a large effect size, f 2= 0.48. The results are discussed considering prior research and their psychosocial implications.

The relationship between fear of COVID-19 and anxiety in Honduran population

10.31234/osf.io/ytz8p

Background: A better understanding of the factors underlying their acceptance may contribute greatly to the design of more effective public health programs during the current and future pandemics. The objectives of the present study were to assess their acceptance after populations experienced their negative effects, and their relationships with COVID-19 perceptions. Methods: Data were collected from 2004 individuals through an online survey conducted 6 to 8 weeks after the first lockdown in France. Participants were asked whether they supported eight COVID-19 preventive measures. COVID-19-related perceptions were also assessed using an adapted version of Witte’s Extended Parallel Process Model, together with sociodemographic and environmental variables. Results: Acceptance rate reached 86.1 % for individual protective measures, such as make mask mandatory in public open space, and 70.0% for collective restrictions, such as isolating the most vulnerable people (80%) or forbidding public gatherings (79.3%). The least popular restrictions were closing all schools/universities and non-essential commerce such as bars and restaurants (57.2%). Acceptance of collective restrictions was positively associated with their perceived efficacy, fear, and perceived severity of COVID-19, and negatively with age older than 60 years. Acceptance of individual protective measures was associated with their perceived efficacy, fear, and perceived severity of COVID-19. Discussion: Acceptance rates of COVID-19 preventive measures were rather high, but varied according to their perceived social cost, and were more related to collective than personal protection. Preventive measures that minimize social costs while controlling the spread of the disease are more likely to be accepted during pandemics.

Acceptance of COVID-19 preventive measures as a tradeoff between health and social outcomes

10.31234/osf.io/279yg

We examined how different types of communication influence people’s responses to health advice. Specifically, we tested whether presenting Covid-19 prevention advice (i.e., washing hands) as either originating from the government or a scientific source would affect people’s trust and intentions to comply with the advice. We also tested the effects of uncertainty framing: We presented the advice as being either certainly or potentially effective in reducing virus spread. To achieve this, we conducted an experiment using largely representative samples (N = 4,561) from the UK, US, Canada, Malaysia, and Taiwan. Overall, across countries, participants found messages more trustworthy when the purported source was science as opposed to government. This effect was stronger for left-wing/liberal participants. Phrasing the advice as certain versus uncertain had little impact on trust and intentions. Together, our findings suggest that health advice should be communicated by scientists rather than governments.

Scientists, speak up! Source impacts trust in and intentions to comply with health advice cross-culturally

10.31234/osf.io/zup86

Background: Mental health has worsened, and substance use has increased for some individuals during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Cross-sectional studies suggest that COVID-19 risk perceptions are related to mental health and risk behaviours (potentially including substance use). However, longitudinal and genetic data are needed to support stronger inferences regarding whether these associations reflect causal pathways. Methods: Using cross-sectional, longitudinal, and polygenic risk score (PRS) data from the UK Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we examined cross-sectional and prospective associations between COVID-19 risk perceptions and mental health, wellbeing, and risk behaviours. Participants (85% female) were aged between 27-72 years. We used pandemic (April-July 2020) and pre-pandemic (2003-2017) data (ns = 233-5,115). Results: COVID-19 risk perceptions were positively associated with anxiety (OR 2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 3.52), depression (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.18), low wellbeing (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.13), increased alcohol use (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.72), and COVID-19 prevention behaviours (ps < .05). Pre-pandemic anxiety (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.09) and low wellbeing (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.74) were positively associated with COVID-19 risk perceptions. The depression (b 0.21, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.40) and wellbeing (b -0.29, 95% CI -0.48 to -0.09) PRS were associated with higher and lower COVID-19 risk perceptions, respectively. Conclusions: Poorer mental health and wellbeing are associated with higher COVID-19 risk perceptions, and longitudinal and genetic data suggest that they may play a casual role in COVID-19 risk perceptions.

Associations between COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Mental Health, Wellbeing, and Risk Behaviours