10.31234/osf.io/azmu9

This paper reviews the transformation of the academy by online technology and the development of what has been termed 'digital scholars.' A particular focus is on how such technologies have facilitated academic communication and collaboration. Several online collaborative academic projects are reviewed. It is suggested one component of online 'academic collaboratives' (collaborative online communities of scholars) could be the development of massively collaborative online textbooks that can also serve as a current overview of a discipline. It is proposed that it could utilize peer review processes similar to peer reviewed academic journals. The issues of how scholars can be given academic credit for their contributions to an academic collaborative is discussed. Part 2 of this paper will review the development and operation of an online academic collaborative in the field of evolutionary psychology.

Online Academic Collaboratives, Part 1: Overview and Possibilities

The purpose of this brief paper is to suggest key principles for co-production of guidance relating to the control of COVID-19, especially where that guidance is expected to be implemented locally by institutions, communities and small businesses. We understand co-production to be the processes and activities by which specific outputs, whether policy, guidance or tools, are created between those traditionally viewed as the ‘decision-makers’ and those groups traditionally viewed as ‘subjected’ to those outputs(Davies, Wetherell & Barnett, 2006; Wright, Corner, Hopkinson & Foster, 2006). It is a practice that amplifies local expertise and practical, embedded knowledge of the problems, and implications of any proposed policy(Hurtig, 2008). Whilst co-production inevitablyrequires some time and resourcesduring the design of an intervention, even a minor investment in working with the implementersand targets ofinterventions will be repaid in terms of enhanced effectiveness.Co-production can be as short as a few hours of consultation with key stakeholders and as long as weeks or months. However, in this rapidly changing environment, a little bit of well-planned, well-prepared co-production can go a long way towards preventing implementation failures, either due to irrelevance or unacceptability, later on.We suggest three key principles for what optimal co-production would look like, highlightfour criteria to understand whether co-production has been effective, and providepractical steps for undertaking co-production before presenting two cases where co-production was undertaken quickly to inform pressing policy needs.

Principles for co-productionof guidance relating to the control of COVID-19

Weaknesses in governance led to avoidable mistakes, says Chris Ham, as the UK death toll passes 100,000

Chris Ham: The United Kingdom’s poor record on covid-19 is a failure of policy learning

Normal outdoor CO2 is approximately 430 PPM. Note how the CO2 slowly climbs over the course of the school day (and barely drops during recess breaks). The CO2 finally drops off when the monitor was able to get a breath of fresh air.

Lots of stale rebreathed air in this class. CO2 > 1000 PPM is a proxy measure for poor ventilation. This room is not getting enough fresh outdoor air. This increases risks of fatigue, headaches and COVID-19 transmission. #DontShareYourAir #OpenAWindow

Most public health bodies accept COVID-19 is “opportunistic airborne” in unique circumstances, which include poorly ventilated, crowded spaces. Sadly, there’s plenty of opportunity in our schools and communities. CO2 readings in an Ottawa classroom... @PublicHealthON #onted

New reports @NEJM today confirming some immune evasion of the B.1.351 variant (identified in South Africa) to both the mRNA vaccines, in vitro data @BioNTech_Group/@Pfizer and @moderna_tx. Less vaccine efficacy vs B.1.351 has been confirmed in clinical trials for 3 vaccines

As more of the population is vaccinated, an increasing number of people have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, either via infection or, more safely, via inoculation. Many experts have pointed to vaccination as a way to limit future evolution of the coronavirus into new and possibly more dangerous variants. The overall immune status of an entire population can in essence serve as an evolutionary selection pressure; but that assumes there is enough replication going on for mutations to be under positive selection—meaning that mutations don't just occur but that there are conditions that either favor or disfavor that new version of virus by virtue of some change in its structure and therefore its "behavior."

Vaccinations could limit further mutations

To test whether acute infection with B.1.1.7 is associated with higher or more sustained nasopharyngeal viral concentrations, we assessed longitudinal PCR tests performed in a cohort of 65 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 undergoing daily surveillance testing, including seven in fected with B.1.1.7. For individuals infected with B.1.1.7, the mean duration of the proliferation phase was 5.3 days (90% credible interval [2.7, 7.8]), the mean duration of the clearance phase was 8.0 days [6.1, 9.9], and the mean overall duration of infection (proliferation plus clearance) was 13.3 days [10.1, 16.5]. These compare to a mean proliferation phase of 2.0 days [0.7, 3.3], a mean clearance phase of 6.2 days [5.1, 7.1], and a mean duration of infection of 8.2 days [6.5, 9.7] for non-B.1.1.7 virus. The peak viral concentration for B.1.1.7 was 19.0 Ct [15.8, 22.0] compared to 20.2 Ct [19.0, 21.4] for non-B.1.1.7. This converts to 8.5 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.6, 9.4] for B.1.1.7 and 8.2 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.8, 8.5] for non-B.1.1.7. These data offer evidence that SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 may cause longer infections with similar peak viral concentration compared to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. This extended duration may contribute to B.1.1.7 SARS CoV-2’s increased transmissibility.

Densely sampled viral trajectories suggest longer duration of acute infection with B.1.1.7 variant relative to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2

10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00075-X

It is imperative to dispel any ambiguity about how vaccine efficacy shown in trials translates into protecting individuals and populations.

What does 95% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy really mean?

10.31234/osf.io/8vyxr

In this paper, we investigate the human ability to distinguish political social bots from humans on Twitter. Following motivated reasoning theory from social and cognitive psychology, our central hypothesis is that especially those accounts which are opinion-incongruent are perceived as social bot accounts when the account is ambiguous about its nature. We also hypothesize that credibility ratings mediate this relationship. We asked N = 151 participants to evaluate 24 Twitter accounts and decide whether the accounts were humans or social bots. Findings support our motivated reasoning hypothesis for a sub-group of Twitter users (those who are more familiar with Twitter): Accounts that are opinion-incongruent are evaluated as relatively more bot-like than accounts that are opinion-congruent. Moreover, it does not matter whether the account is clearly social bot or human or ambiguous about its nature. This was mediated by perceived credibility in the sense that congruent profiles were evaluated to be more credible resulting in lower perceptions as bots.

Disagree? You Must be a Bot! How Beliefs Shape Twitter Profile Perceptions

10.31234/osf.io/b9qhd

Online hate speech is a growing concern, with minorities and vulnerable groups increasingly targeted with extreme denigration and hostility. The drivers of hate speech expression on social media are unclear, however. This study explores how hate speech develops on a fringe social media platform popular with the far-right, Gab. We investigate whether users seek out this platform in order to express hate, or whether instead they develop these opinions over time through a mechanism of socialisation, as they interact with other users on the platform. We find a positive association between the time users spend on the platform and their hate speech expression. We show that while some users do arrive on these platforms with pre-existing hate stances, others develop these expressions as they get exposed to the hateful opinions of others. Our analysis reveals how hate speech develops online, the important role of the group environment in accelerating its development, and gives valuable insight to inform the development of counter measures.

Hate Contagion: Measuring the spread and trajectory of hate on social media

10.31234/osf.io/vr896

Conspiracism is not restricted to the fringe dwellers of society. International research suggests that such beliefs are quite common and that conspiracy theories may serve three basic psychological motives (i.e., epistemic, existential, and relational) for individuals. Yet, little is known about conspiracy theory awareness or conspiracism in Australasia. We report the first large systematic investigation of system justifying motives using two nationally representative samples of Australians (n = 1,011) and New Zealanders (n = 754). Our findings show that almost all are aware of local and international conspiracies, and the majority endorse one or more. Also, that all three psychological motives consistently relate to conspiracism but not to awareness. In a series of hierarchical multiple regressions, we find that epistemic (i.e., decreased analytic thinking), existential (i.e., less trust in others, and socially conservative political ideology and increased religiosity), and relational motives (i.e., increased anomie and disillusionment with the government) were all significant unique predictors of increased local and international conspiracism. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of understanding conspiracism as an ideological belief system that may function to serve underlying psychological motives.

Australasian Public Awareness and Belief in Conspiracy Theories: Motivational Correlates

Background: COVID-19 is a major health problem because of acute respiratory distress syndrome, saturation of intensive care units (ICU) and mortality. Methods: Our study aims to elucidate the effect of calcifediol [25(OH)D3] treatment on ICU admission and mortality, in patients admitted to COVID-19 wards of Hospital del Mar, Barcelona, Spain. A total of 930 participants were included. Participants (n=551) were randomly assigned to calcifediol treatment (532 ug on day one and 266 ug on day 3, 7, 15, and 30) at the time of hospital admission or as controls (n=379).Findings: ICU assistance was required by 110 (11.8%) participants. Out of 551 patients treated with calcifediol at admission, 30 (5.4%) required ICU, compared to 80 out of 379 controls (21.1%; p<0.0001). Logistic regression of calcifediol treatment on ICU admission, adjusted by age, gender, linearized 25(OH)D levels at baseline, and comorbidities showed that treated patients had a reduced risk to require ICU (RR 0.18 [95% CI 0.11;0.29]). Baseline 25(OH)D levels inversely correlated with the risk of ICU admission (RR 0.53 [95% CI 0.35;0.80]). Overall mortality was 10%. In the Intention-to-treat analysis, 36 (6.5%) out of 551 patients treated with calcifediol at admission died compared to 57 patients (15%) out of 379 controls (p=0.001). Adjusted results showed a reduced mortality for more of 60%. Higher baseline 25(OH)D levels were significantly associated with decreased mortality (RR 0.40 [95% CI 0.24;0.67]). Age and obesity were also predictors of mortality. Interpretation: In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, calcifediol treatment at the time of hospitalization significantly reduced ICU admission and mortality.

Calcifediol Treatment and COVID-19-Related Outcomes

German Twitter ablaze with a hashtag battle expressing support for a prominent scientific voice in pandemic public debate (....#TeamDrosten) ....a year ago, I thought the public role of science would be challenging, but that's not a level a saw coming...

I've been teaching face to face all school year, and I'm here to tell you: face to face instruction doesn't = better mental health for students. They're all still struggling. Because it's a pandemic.

The UK and California variants of coronavirus appear to have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid, sparking concern that we may be entering a new phase of the covid-19 pandemic

Exclusive: Two variants have merged into heavily mutated coronavirus

For the first time, all the UK's mobile networks are sending out a government message to their customers with details of the new shutdown measures.

Coronavirus: Mobile networks send 'stay at home' text

In summary: databases really bloody matter. We probably need better ones, but that project has the potential to either be utterly transformative for public services or a complete and utter car crash. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

There's also the question of digital exclusion - if everything is done via database, you're going to push citizens towards digital interactions which are nice and easy to store (and obviously a lot cheaper)

Likewise this article from @thomasforth on bin apps, which shows how local government has been bypassed on this stuff in favour of national

But there's also a big risk here of 'the map is the territory'. A big reason that HMT/HMRC haven't done as much to help the self-employed in this crisis (and are generally hostile to them) is that they aren't on the databases in the same neat way as those earning via PAYE.

For example, I'm seeing a load of people talking about vaccine passports as a civil liberties issue, and pretty much no one asking 'What database would they use?' - which is utterly essential to them actually happening, if they ever do

If there isn't a clear answer, then that policy either won't happen, shouldn't happen, or will be far more expensive to make happen than you realise.

So all of this has some really important consequences. The first is that if you are making policy, the very first question you have to ask is 'What existing database can I use, and will it do what I want it to?'

Why couldn't the Government send everyone in the UK messages about coronavirus - or councils do the same with their citizens? Databases. That's why they basically had to beg the mobile operators to send on their behalf

(But of course we have some pretty good examples of how our government can screw up attempts to mash databases together like this - UC, the NHS IT system, the Verify car crash...)

If you talk to Estonians, the reason that they are streets ahead on digital government is that everyone has a unique and mostly comprehensive digital identity, which plugs into everything else. Talking to ministers about this pre-pandemic, it was top of digital govt wishlist

To whit: Verify, Govt Gateway, HMRC/NI numbers, DWP, NHS numbers (plus separate for Scotland, Wales, NI), passports, driver's licences, learner and pupil numbers in schools, blood donors, criminal records, Disclosure and Barring, the electoral roll...

Now, I was one of those in the trenches with No2ID back in the day. I'm still instinctively hostile to ID cards. But one of the biggest problems the British state has it that it has an insane number of databases that do not really talk to each other.

In fact, UC is a really good example of this. It was a brilliant policy idea that took billions/years more than expected/budgeted because it required the HMRC and DWP databases to talk to each other, and that turned out to be very, very, very hard

Essentially, a policy is easy to do if you can adjust an existing database easily, and almost impossible to do if you can't. This of course plays into the debate over the £20 UC uplift - proposed solutions essentially divide into computer says yes and computer says no.

Now think about where things went wrong. Covid test results being lost because the data had been cobbled together using Excel? https://bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988… Track and Trace, where you were essentially trying to build a database mapping the infected's social networks from scratch?

The furlough scheme? PAYE. Expanding UC? The UC database (duh). The vaccine rollout? NHS patient records. All robust enough for use, and mostly already transferred to the cloud so could be accessed/expanded without too much stress.

Throughout the pandemic, to a rough approximation, every single UK policy success has been built on a good database. And every single policy failure has resulted from a bad/nonexistent one.

The vaccine passports debate is a perfect illustration of my new working theory: that the most important part of modern government, and its most important limitation, is database management. Please stick with me on this - it's much more interesting than it sounds. (1/?)

The badly thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software was the reason nearly 16,000 coronavirus cases went unreported in England.

Excel: Why using Microsoft's tool caused Covid-19 results to be lost

10.31234/osf.io/8k56a

Perceived social support represents an important predictor of healthy ageing. The global COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed the face of social relationships and exposed elderly as a particularly vulnerable population. Social distancing may represent a double-edged sword for older adults, protecting them against COVID-19 infection while also sacrificing personal interaction and attention at a critical time. Here, we consider the moderating role of social relationships as a potential influence on stress resilience, allostatic load, and vulnerability to infection and adverse health outcomes in the elderly population. Understanding the mechanisms how social support enhances resilience to stress and promotes mental and physical health into old age will enable new preventive strategies. Targeted social interventions may provide effective relief from the impact of COVID-19-related isolation and loneliness. In this regard, a pandemic may also offer a window of opportunity for raising awareness and mobilizing resources for new strategies that help build resilience for our ageing population and future generations.

Ageing, Social Distancing, and COVID-19 Risk: Who is more Vulnerable?

10.31234/osf.io/bsf9e

Evidence suggests that perseverative cognition (PC), the cognitive representation of past stressful events (rumination) or feared future events (worry), mediates the relationship between stress and physical disease. However, the experimental evidence testing methods to influence PC and the subsequent relationship with health outcomes has not been synthesised. Therefore, the current review addressed these gaps. Studies randomly assigning participants to treatment and control groups, measuring PC and a physical and/or behavioural health outcome after exposure to a non-pharmacological intervention, were included in a systematic review. Key terms were searched in Medline, PsycInfo and CINAHL databases. Of the screened studies (k = 10,703), 36 met the eligibility criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses revealed the interventions, relative to comparison groups, on average produced medium-sized effects on rumination (g = -.58), small-to-medium sized effects on worry (g = -.41) and health behaviours (g = .31), and small-sized effects on physical health outcomes (g = .23). Effect sizes for PC were positively associated with effect sizes for health behaviours (following outlier removal). Effect sizes for PC were significantly larger when interventions were delivered by healthcare professionals than when delivered via all other methods. No specific intervention type (when directly compared against other types) was associated with larger effect sizes for PC. Psychological interventions can influence PC. Medium-sized effect sizes for PC correspond with small, but positive, associations with health behaviours.

Health Effects of Psychological Interventions for Worry and Rumination: A Meta-analysis.

10.31234/osf.io/fp35r

A correlational study to test the relationship between socio-economic status and reactivity to threats.

Poverty and Threat Reactivity

10.31234/osf.io/fc38j

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) spread across Canada in March 2020, provinces imposed strict lockdowns causing restrictions and disruptions to health care. These changes impacted how pregnant individuals received prenatal care and experienced childbirth. The additional stress caused by these changes may negatively affect the well-being of pregnant individuals and the developing child. This study investigated the impact of the pandemic on prenatal care and birth plans of pregnant individuals in Canada and potential associations with maternal mental health. Data from 4604 participants was collected from English- and French-speaking Canadians between April 5-June 1, 2020 as part of the Canada-wide Pregnancy During the COVID-19 Pandemic study. Symptoms of maternal depression, general anxiety, and pregnancy-related anxiety were assessed. Participants also answered questions about disruptions and changes to prenatal care and their birth plans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations between prenatal care disruptions and maternal mental health. Cancellation of prenatal appointments and birth plan changes (specifically changes to childcare during birth and change of support person attending the birth) were significantly associated with greater odds of experiencing clinically-elevated depression, anxiety, and/or pregnancy-related anxiety symptoms. These results illustrate the need for reliable and accessible prenatal care during the pandemic, such as the integration of mental health screenings and co-ordination of prenatal care providers.

Prenatal care disruptions and associations with maternal mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/7gjkc

Who thrives while socially distancing? For this descriptive, exploratory study, we polled a sample of over 500 participants from the United States on April 8, 2020—in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic when practicing social distancing was at its peak. Above and beyond other social and nonsocial activities, living and employment arrangements, personality traits, demographics, and other variables, people who spent more time interacting with close others—either in person or online—felt more socially connected. However, only interacting with close others in person, but not online, predicted greater positive affect. In contrast, people who spent more time interacting with weak ties online experienced greater negative affect and more stress. Looking at specific interaction partners, we found that people who interacted with their relatives, romantic partners, and even coworkers/classmates felt more socially connected. Living arrangements mattered little beyond people’s social interactions, except for living with one’s children, which predicted greater stress. Certain social online activities, including playing games with close ties and group/club meetings predicted greater positive affect. Amongst nonsocial activities, active leisure like exercise emerged as a robust predictor of positive affect, whereas passive leisure like watching TV predicted greater negative affect. Even during a historic pandemic and unprecedented conditions of social distancing, then, the factors that predict well-being are much the same as those already established in the literature. Indeed, much like in-person interactions, online social interactions predict greater social connectedness. However, unlike in-person interactions, online interactions simultaneously predict more negative affect and more stress.

A Week During COVID-19: Online Social Interactions Predict Greater Connection and More Stress

10.31234/osf.io/3vsxc

Pregnant women may be particularly sensitive to negative events (i.e., adversity) related to the COVID-19 pandemic and affective responses to these events (i.e., stress). We examined COVID-19-related stress and adversity in a sample of 725 pregnant women residing in the San Francisco Bay Area in March-May 2020, 343 of whom provided addresses in California that were geocoded and matched by census tract to measures of community-level risk factors. Women who were pregnant during the pandemic had substantially elevated depressive symptoms compared to matched women who were pregnant prior to the pandemic. Several individual- and community-level risk and protective factors were associated with women’s scores on two latent factors of COVID-19-related stress and adversity. Highlighting the role of subjective responses to the pandemic in vulnerability to prenatal depression and factors that influence susceptibility to COVID-19-related stress, these findings inform understanding of the psychosocial sequelae of disease outbreaks among pregnant women.

Pregnancy during the pandemic: The impact of COVID-19-related stress on risk for prenatal depression

10.31234/osf.io/eb6yz

An underlying concern about the COVID-19 pandemic is that the mental health of children will decline. The present study aimed to investigate whether a single school-based intervention, including self-monitoring and psychoeducation for COVID-19, effectively achieved its aim to promote children’s mental health. The study was conducted in a junior high school. We assigned the third grade as the intervention group, second grade as the announcement group, and first grade, the control group. We hypothesized that the intervention group would experience improved mental health and reduced fear of COVID-19, when compared to the announcement and control groups. Interaction effects were observed only for depression, indicating a significant intervention effect in the intervention group. These findings suggest that a single school-based intervention that includes self-monitoring and psychoeducation for COVID-19 can help to improve children’s mental health. It is suggested that school-based interventions that intend to raise children's awareness of COVID-19 promote healthy development and adaptation within the school.

Impact of a Single School-Based Intervention for COVID-19 on Improving Mental Health

10.31234/osf.io/c9rme

To slow down the spread of COVID-19 public compliance on social distancing policy is required. One of the factors that contribute to compliance on social distancing policy is awareness on COVID-19. This study aimed to examine the relationship between awareness on COVID-19 and compliance with social distancing policy. This study used an online survey through Google Form to 404 respondents aged 18 to 63 years (Mean = 27.17, SD = 8.468). The data were collected by using awareness on the COVID-19 scale and compliance with the social distancing scale. The data were analyzed using the Spearman correlation and Kruskal Wallis, followed up by Mann-Whitney U with Bonferroni correction. Based on Spearman correlation, the awareness on COVID-19 was significantly and positively associated with compliance with social distancing order (r=.460, p<.01). Further analysis based on demographic variables found that the awareness on COVID-19 was significantly higher in postgraduates than high school graduates (U=7242.5, p<.01). The awareness on COVID-19 was also significantly higher in working participants than jobless participants. The compliance with social distancing order was found higher in women than men (U=12031.5, p<.01). The study's primary result is that the awareness on COVID-19 positively correlates with public compliance on social distancing order.

Study on Awareness of COVID-19 and Compliance with Social Distancing during COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

10.31234/osf.io/9aqbj

Imagination is relevant in many aspects of our lives, and has been associated with creativity and overall cognitive development, yet imagination may also have a dark side. In two studies we examined the link between imagination, anxiety, and loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic. US college students (N = 101, Study 1) and participants from an international community sample (N = 61, Study 2) were tested around the time that rates of COVID-19 cases were escalating. Across both samples, we found that spending more time in one’s imagination was associated with elevated levels of anxiety. Furthermore, frequency of imagination interacted with loneliness in predicting changes in anxiety during, compared to before the pandemic. Specifically, lonely people who spent more time imagining experienced the largest increases in anxiety during, compared to before the pandemic. In Study 1 valence of imagination and changes in anxiety were also moderated by feelings of loneliness, although this effect was not replicated in Study 2. Results indicate that at least some features of imagination, particularly how much time people spend in imaginative states, may be associated with negative mood states, such as feelings of anxiety. Implications and future directions are discussed

Imagination, anxiety, and loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

10.31234/osf.io/a34qp

The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the lives of people across the globe. The current research sought to understand how the pandemic affected people’s social and psychological states during the first three months after the first U.S. death was reported. How did people’s emotions, thought patterns, and social lives change as the pandemic unfolded? The Reddit language of 200,000+ people across 18 cities in the U.S. was analyzed along with surveys from 11,000+ people in the U.S. and Canada. Overall, large psychological shifts were found that reflected three distinct phases. As the first COVID warnings emerged but prior to the shelter-in-place directives, people’s attentional focus switched to the impending threat. Anxiety levels surged, and positive emotion and anger dropped. In parallel, people’s thinking became more immediate and intuitive rather than analytic. When cities began lockdowns, anxiety levels spiked and sadness increased, and language shifted in ways that revealed people’s attempts to make sense of the situation. Six weeks after the onset, people’s psychological states stabilized but the COVID-produced changes had not abated. Converging evidence from survey responses and natural language analysis indicated that people’s ties with family strengthened but that social ties to broader groups (friends, city, and country) weakened. The psychological shifts were amplified on days when the country’s and cities’ COVID infection growth rates were higher, marking the link between the pandemic and the observed psychological patterns. Together, the study underscores the large psychological impacts across the country during the first three months of the crisis.

The Social and Psychological Changes of the First Months of COVID-19

In better off families in England 40% of children study five hours a day, against 26% in poorer homes

Home schooling is widening attainment gap between rich and poor, finds report

10.1073/pnas.2016887118

Recently, theoreticians have hypothesized that diverse groups, as opposed to groups that are homogeneous, may have relative merits [S. E. Page, The Diversity Bonus (2019)]—all of which lead to more success in solving complex problems. As such, understanding complex, intertwined environmental and social issues may benefit from the integration of diverse types of local expertise. However, efforts to support this hypothesis have been frequently made through laboratory-based or computational experiments, and it is unclear whether these discoveries generalize to real-world complexities. To bridge this divide, we combine an Internet-based knowledge elicitation technique with theoretical principles of collective intelligence to design an experiment with local stakeholders. Using a case of striped bass fisheries in Massachusetts, we pool the local knowledge of resource stakeholders represented by graphical cognitive maps to produce a causal model of complex social-ecological interdependencies associated with fisheries ecosystems. Blinded reviews from a scientific expert panel revealed that the models of diverse groups outranked those from homogeneous groups. Evaluation via stochastic network analysis also indicated that a diverse group more adequately modeled complex feedbacks and interdependencies than homogeneous groups. We then used our data to run Monte Carlo experiments wherein the distributions of stakeholder-driven cognitive maps were randomly reproduced and virtual groups were generated. Random experiments also predicted that knowledge diversity improves group success, which was measured by benchmarking group models against an ecosystem-based fishery management model. We also highlight that diversity must be moderated through a proper aggregation process, leading to more complex yet parsimonious models.

The diversity bonus in pooling local knowledge about complex problems

10.31234/osf.io/9jcem

Facts are not what they used to be. Whether you are checking the news or opening the latest journal article, there is increasing evidence that people are more susceptible to misinformation and less receptive to factual arguments than we might hope. While fact checks can be effective in some domains (e.g., health), they prove to be a very weak antidote for misinformation when it comes to politics. This problem is exacerbated by increasing polarization in the U.S. and abroad, where partisans express a growing sense of distrust and moral animosity. But a new paper offers a strategy for bridging political divides. In an impressive series of 15 studies, they detail how expressions of personal experience can garner respect from people across the political aisle. Our paper describes why these might be an effective strategy for gaining respect, but also explain why this feature of human psychology can be exploited by propagandists and bad actors. Learning how to do this effectively, without weaponizing misinformation, will require great care and nuance.

Speaking my truth: Why personal experiences can bridge divides but mislead

Company may be in danger of breaching contracts to supply EU due to production problem

AstraZeneca may have to renegotiate vaccine contracts, say experts

10.31234/osf.io/pkaxn

People struggle to stay motivated to work toward difficult goals. Sometimes the feeling of difficulty signals that the goal is important and worth pursuing; other times, it signals that the goal is impossible and should be abandoned. In this paper, we argue that how difficulty is experienced depends on how we perceive and experience the timing of difficult events. We synthesize research from across the social and behavioral sciences and propose a new integrated model to explain how components of time perception interact with interpretations of experienced difficulty to influence motivation and goal-directed behavior. Although these constructs have been studied separately in previous research, we suggest that these factors are inseparable and that an integrated model will help us to better understand motivation and predict behavior. We conclude with new empirical questions to guide future research and by discussing the implications of this research for both theory and intervention practice.

When the Going Gets Tough, How Do We Perceive the Future?

Scientists don’t know yet whether the mutation makes the variants more contagious, but they are concerned that it might.

7 Virus Variants Found in U.S. Carrying the Same Mutation

10.1101/2021.02.12.21251658

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein (S) plays critical roles in host cell entry. Non-synonymous substitutions affecting S are not uncommon and have become fixed in a number of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. A subset of such mutations enable escape from neutralizing antibodies or are thought to enhance transmission through mechanisms such as increased affinity for the cell entry receptor, ACE2. Independent genomic surveillance programs based in New Mexico and Louisiana contemporaneously detected the rapid rise of numerous clade 20G (lineage B.1.2) infections carrying a Q677P substitution in S. The variant was first detected in the US on October 23, yet between 01 Dec 2020 and 19 Jan 2021 it rose to represent 27.8% and 11.3% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced from Louisiana and New Mexico, respectively. Q677P cases have been detected predominantly in the south central and southwest United States; as of 03 Feb 2021, GISAID data show 499 viral sequences of this variant from the USA. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the independent evolution and spread of at least six distinct Q677H sub-lineages, with first collection dates ranging from mid August to late November, 2020. Four 677H clades from clade 20G (B.1.2) , 20A (B.1.234), and 20B (B.1.1.220, and B.1.1.222) each contain roughly 100 or fewer sequenced cases, while a distinct pair of clade 20G clusters are represented by 754 and 298 cases, respectively. Although sampling bias and founder effects may have contributed to the rise of S:677 polymorphic variants, the proximity of this position to the polybasic cleavage site at the S1/S2 boundary are consistent with its potential functional relevance during cell entry, suggesting parallel evolution of a trait that may confer an advantage in spread or transmission. Taken together, our findings demonstrate simultaneous convergent evolution, thus providing an impetus to further evaluate S:677 polymorphisms for effects on proteolytic processing, cell tropism, and transmissibility.

Emergence in late 2020 of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variants affecting amino acid position 677

New comprehensive economic modelling shows advanced economies stand to lose trillions of dollars through vaccine nationalism – more than previously thought Economic benefits of funding multilateral efforts to ensure equitable access to vaccines dwarf the costs Advanced economies with international linkages have the most to gain from global collaboration on vaccine access and distribution

Study shows vaccine nationalism could cost rich countries US$4.5 trillion

Since 2016, the amount of academic research with the keyword "misinformation" has more than doubled [2]. This research often focuses on article headlines shown in artificial testing environments, yet misinformation largely spreads through images and video posts shared in highly-personalized platform contexts. A foundation of qualitative research is necessary to begin filling this gap to ensure platforms' visual misinformation interventions are aligned with users' needs and understanding of information in their personal contexts, across platforms. In two studies, we combined in-depth interviews (n=15) with diary and co-design methods (n=23) to investigate how a broad mix of Americans exposed to misinformation during COVID-19 understand their visual information environments, including encounters with interventions such as Facebook fact-checking labels. Analysis reveals a deep division in user attitudes about platform labeling interventions for visual information which are perceived by many as overly paternalistic, biased, and punitive. Alongside these findings, we discuss our methods as a model for continued independent qualitative research on cross-platform user experiences of misinformation that inform interventions.

Encounters with Visual Misinformation and Labels Across Platforms: An Interview and Diary Study to Inform Ecosystem Approaches to Misinformation Interventions

Learn more about @FirstDraft’s and @PartnershipAI’s work on misinformation labelling in our recent paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.12758