for - progress traps - law of unintended consequences - A Transcender Manifesto - Dill Green

for - adjacency - "dismantled from within" - polarization - consequences of - shortermism - executive orders - destruction every time other party wins election - melancholia

adjacency - between - "dismantled from within" - polarization - executive order - consequences of - shortermism - destruction every time other party takes over - melancholia - adjacency relationship - When I read the words "dismantle from within", I made an association with how destructive policies are when polarization means leads to an inability to find a middle ground - New executive orders are issued to undo the executive orders of the previous term - This shortermism of every election cycle when no compromise can be found is collectively melancholy

for - wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization

wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization - many people become desensitized to bad news

for - comparison - complexity - SDG logo vs baby - response - Nora Bateson - to Entangled World podcast interviewer's comment - unintended consequences can be paralyzing

comparison - complexity - Nora Bateson response - SDG logo vs baby - In response to the podcasters's question about how do we act for social change when - it appears that every action can have an unintended consequence? - Nora compares - UN SDG logo with 17 different areas of change - an image of a mother and baby - and she talks about how the image of the mother and baby is so intertwingled that it includes all 17 areas (and probably more)

• for: stories - consequences of good and bad stories, inisight - war and genocide - when people violently disagree on stories,

• insight

  • disagreement of stories
    • not just wars, but climate change skeptics believe a different story than environmentalists
    • hyperobjects and evolution play a role as well in what we believe

• for: quote, quote - Michael Levin, quote - self as control agent, self - control agent, example, example - control agent - imperfection, spontaneous thought, spontaneous action, creativity - spontaneity

• quote: Michael Levin

  • the Bodhisattva vow can be seen as a method for control that is in alignment with, and informed by, the understanding that singular and enduring control agents do not actually exist.

• comment

  • adjacency between
    • nondual awareness
    • self-construct
    • self is illusion
    • singular, solid, enduring control agent
  • adjacency statement
    • nondual awareness is the deep insight that there is no solid, singular, enduring control agent.
    • creativity is unpredictable and spontaneous and would not be possible if there were perfect control
• example - control agent - imperfection: start - the unpredictability of the realtime emergence of our next exact thought or action is a good example of this

• example - control agent - imperfection: end

• triggered insight: not only are thoughts and actions random, but dreams as well

  • I dreamt the night after this about something related to this paper (cannot remember what it is now!)
  • Obviously, I had no clue the idea in this paper would end up exactly as it did in next night's dream!

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, progress trap - new life forms, progress trap - bioengineering
• comment
  • this opens up a big can of worms. A general theory of progress traps (https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap) is urgently needed to systematically study the unintended consequences of progress.

• for: progress trap, red fire ants, fire ants, progress trap - shipping, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - shipping

• paraphrase

  • Fire ants would be devastating if released in continental Europe and even more all around the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The cost for human economies and well-being would be enormous. Where they have been invasive, they have:
    • displaced native ant and other species
    • damage electrical equipment
  • A genetic analysis of the Italian ants suggests they likely came from either China or the United States.
  • In the U.S., the species causes an estimated $6 billion in damage each year.
  • The insects spread internationally via shipping, especially of plants and soil.
  • Red fire ants have been detected in imported products in Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands, but not as wild colonies.

• for: dualism, dualism - psychology, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - dualism in psychology, progress trap, progress trap - dualism in psychology

• paraphrase

  • The dualism of scientific materialism gives rise to one-person psychologies
    • and are arguably complicit in much of the psychological and social damage we are now recognising.
  • For instance, a good deal of the historical denial of the role of psychological and social trauma has been traced
    • back to the Freudian model’s almost exclusive focus on the internal world;
      • the actual impact of others and society has been, as a result, relatively ignored.
  • Modern psychiatry, which accepts the same philosophical model but changes the level of explanation, is just as culpable.
  • Likewise CBT, with its focus on dysfunctional thought patterns and rational remedies administered from the outside, also follows the same misguided philosophy.

• question

  • what are concrete ways this has caused harm?
• future work
  • perform literature review on case studies where Winnicott's approach has been a more constructive therapeutic one

• for: gig economy, progress trap, unintended consequence, quote, quote - unintended consequence, quote - progress trap, quote James Mickens
• quote
  • the gig economy is enabled by technology;
  • technology finds buyers for workers and their services.
  • However, given the choice between
    • an economy with many gig workers and
    • an economy with an equivalent number of traditional middle-class jobs,
  • I think that most people would prefer the latter.
• author: James Mickens
  • associate professor of computer science, Harvard University

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, Indyweb - justifiication
• description
  • a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
    • in other words, progress traps
• comment
  • also a lot of rich material to justify the Indyweb's design ethos

• for: quote, quote - Stowe Boyd, quote - progress trap, quote - unintended consequences, unintended consequences, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap
• quote:
  • Technological change is an accelerant and acts on the social ills like pouring gasoline on a fire
• author: Sowe Boyd
  • consulting futurist on technological evolution and the future of work
• paraphrase
  • In an uncontrolled hyper-capitalist society,
    • the explosion in technologies over the past 30 years has only
      • widened inequality,
      • concentrated wealth and
      • led to greater social division.
    • And it is speeding up with the rise of artificial intelligence,
      • which like globalization has destabilized Western industrial economies while admittedly pulling hundreds of millions elsewhere out of poverty.
  • And the boiling exhaust of this set of forces is pushing the planet into a climate catastrophe. -The world is as unready for hundreds of millions of climate refugees as it was for the plague.
  • However, some variant of social media will likely form the context for the rise of a global movement to stop the madness
    • which I call the Human Spring
  • which will be more like
    • Occupy or
    • the Yellow Vests
  • than traditional politics.
  • I anticipate a grassroots movement
    • characterized by
      • general strikes,
      • political action,
      • protest and
      • widespread disruption of the economy
    • that will confront the economic and political system of the West.
  • Lead by the young, ultimately this will lead to large-scale political reforms, such as
    • universal health care,
    • direct democracy,
    • a new set of rights for individuals and
    • a large set of checks on the power of
      • corporations and
      • political parties.
  • For example,
    • eliminating corporate contributions to political campaigns,
    • countering monopolies and
    • effectively accounting for economic externalities, like carbon.

-for: quote, quote - Jennifer Jarratt, quote - progress trap, progress trap, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, quote - unintended consequences, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap - quote: with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all! - author: Jennifer Jarratt - co-principal of Leading Futurists LLC

• for: progress traps, progress, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, unintended consequences - technology, unintended consequences - digital technology, progress trap - quotations, quote, quote - progress trap
• title: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
• authors: emily A Vogels, Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson
• year: June 30, 2020
• description: a good source of quotations on progress traps / unintended consequences of digital technology from this Pew Research 2020 report on the future of the digital technology and democracy.
  • the Pew Research Center interviewed a lot of experts in the field
  • in particular, section 5 of the report entitled
    • "Tech causes more problems than it can solve" is quite salient for the topic of progress traps
  • The Indyweb actually addresses many of these problems:
    • https://opencollective.com/open-learning-commons/projects/indy-learning-commons

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Doc Searls
• quote
  • What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip,
    • tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything,
      • including wrongly.
  • The only places where news won’t skew fake will be localities in the natural world.
  • That’s where the digital and the physical connect best.
  • Also expect the internet to break into pieces, with
    • the U.S.,
    • Europe and
    • China
  • becoming increasingly isolated by different value systems and governance approaches toward
    • networks and
    • what runs on them.

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - David Weinberger
• quote: I see no reason to think that the current situation will change:
  • Tech will cause problems that require innovative solutions and
  • tech will be part of those solutions.
  • Machine learning (ML) is right now an example of this
• author: David Weinberger
  • senior researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Jonathan Grudin
• quote: Can our fundamental human need for close community be restored or
  • will we become more isolated, anxious and susceptible to manipulation?
• author: Jonathan Grudin
  • principal researcher, Microsoft

Where there is a problem to be solved, there is a focus of attention Where there is a focus of attention, there is simplification of a complex system Where there is simplification of a complex system, there is a vast amount of knowledge relationships that is ignored Where this is a vast amount of ignored knowledge relationships, there is the potential for a progress trap

The systemic problem is the way our form of progress formulates problems and the inherent (over) simplification that comes with.that.

5 principles for mitigating progress traps - 1) - a priori assessments of potential unintended consequences of policies - should be conducted by - multidisciplinary teams - with as broad a range of expertise as possible. - This would require decision-making - to flex around specific policy challenges - to ensure that decision-makers reflect the problem space in question. - 2) - policy plans made in light of the assessment should be iterative, - with scheduled re-assessments in the future. - As has been discussed above, - knowledge and circumstances change. - New consequences might have since - become manifest or new knowledge developed. - By planning and implementing reviews, - organizational reflexivity and - humility - needs to be built into decision-making systems (e.g., Treasury, 2020).

• 3)
  • given the scale of systems
    • such as the water-energy-food nexus
  • and the potential for infinite variety and nuance of unintended consequences,
    • pragmatism necessitates specification of boundaries
      • within which assessments are made.
  • It should be noted that this can in itself give rise to unintended consequences
    • through potential omission of relevant areas.
  • Hence, boundary decisions regarding
    • where the boundaries lie
      • should be regularly revisited (as per 2) above.
• 4)
  • unintended consequences identified
    • should be placed in the framework
      • with as much consensus among decision-makers as possible.
  • The positioning does not need to be limited to a single point,
    • but could be of the form of a distribution of opinions of range
      • of knowability and
      • avoidability;
    • the distribution will be indicative of
      • the perspectives and
      • opinions of the stakeholders.
  • If a lack of consensus exists on the exact position,
    • this can highlight a need to
      • seek more diverse expertise, or
      • for further research in order to improve consensus, or
      • for fragmenting of the issue into
        • smaller,
        • more readily assessable pieces.
• 5)
  • there is a need for more active learning
    • by decision-makers
      • about how to avoid repeating past unintended consequences.
  • To support this,
    • assessment process and
    • outcomes should be
      • documented and
      • used
    • to appraise the effectiveness of policy mechanisms,
      • with specific attention on outcomes
        • beyond those defined by policy objectives and the
          • assumptions and
          • decisions
        • which led to these outcomes.
  • Such appraisals could reflect on - the scope of the assessment, and - the effectiveness of specific groups of stakeholders
    • in being able to identify potential negative outcomes,
      • highlighting gaps in knowledge and limitations in the overall approach.
  • Additional records of the level of agreement of participants
    • would allow for re-evaluation with new learning.

Title: Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

Abstract - Paraphrase - there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, - potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions need to accounted for. - “nexus” research is consistent with the above - it recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, - and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. - This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon: - how much is known about the system in question - and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. - The framework comprises four categories: - Knowable and Avoidable - Knowable and Unavoidable - Unknowable and Avoidable - Unknowable and Unavoidable - The categories are explored with reference to examples in both: - the water-energy-food nexus and - planetary boundary frameworks. - The examples: - highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and - explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. - The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used - to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward - secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, - avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

// - This paper is principally about - progress traps, - how they emerge, - their characteristics - as they morph through the knowability / avoidability matrix - and how we might predict and mitigate them in the future

• Title: Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions
• Author:
  • Nicole L. Bolvin
  • Melinda A. Zeder
  • Dorian O. Fuller
  • Michael D. Petraglia

// - This becomes a moral and ethical question, indeed could it become a legal question? - If excessive wealth, leading to excessive personal carbon emissions and denial of the wellbeing of others, limiting the freedom of others, does this not constitute harm? - If the law is about preventing harm, then extreme wealth with adverse social impacts on many others could be construed and theoretically considered as a potential form of societal harm and hence come under legal considerations. - in other words, some forms of excessive wealth could be construed as harmful wealth - excessive wealth, as it exists today, could have unintended consequences of bringing about societal harm - excessive wealth is potentially a large progress trap

!- consequences of : solidifying self illusion

Crazy! This underscores how badly Mastodon—and ActivityPub, generally—need to be revved to enable network participation from low-cost (essentially free) static* sites.

* quasi-static, really—in the way that RSS-enabled blogs are generally considered static sites

1.8 Weigh second- and third-order consequences.

In solving the complex problems of the world, there can be many unintended consequences. These are the surprises that make each intervention an adventure. Applying a nexus approach such as MuSIASEM is critical to mitigate potential progress traps when dealing with rapid whole system change.

Unintended consequences of information accessibility: 1. decreased psychological productivity 2. decreased social productivity 3. decreased level of engagement, satisfaction and wellbeing

Key questions are asked and the nexus approach of looking at the entire gestalt, consisting of many moving parts and their feedbacks is critical for avoiding and mitigating unintended consequences, also known as progress traps.

Bringing this to a global public space to create engagement is critical to create a groundswell. The public must understand that leverage points offer us our greatest hope. Once they understand them, everyone can help to identify and participate in leverage points.

Collectively mapping them and their many feedbacks in a global, open source map - an open knowledge commons (OKC) or open wisdom commons (OWC) for system change will drive global participation.

A critical part of Deep Humanity is the elucidation of progress traps, the unintended consequences of progress. There is an urgent need to advocate for an entirely new human science discipline on progress traps. The reason is because the polycrisis can be seen and critically explained from a progress trap lens.

Progress traps emerge from the unbridgeable gap between finite, reductionist human knowledge and the fractally infinite patterns of the universe and reality, which exists at all scales and dimensions.

The failure to gain a system level understanding of this has led to the premature global scaling of technologies whose unintended consequences emerged after global markets have been established, causing a conflict of interest between biospheric wellbeing and individual profit.

A systematic study or progress traps has rich data to draw from. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, there has been good records of scientific ideas, their associated engineering and technological exploitation and subsequent news media reports of their phase-delayed unintended consequences. Applying AI and a big data scientometric approach can yield patterns in which progress traps emerge. From this, our scientific-technological-industrial-capitalist framework can be modified to include improved regulatory mechanisms based on progress trap research that can systematically grade the risk factors of any new technology. Such risk categorization can result in technologies that require different time scales and aggregate knowledge understanding before they can be fully commercialized with time scale grades ranging from years to decades and even centuries.

All future technology innovations must past through these systematic, evidence-based regulatory barriers before they can be introduced into widespread commercial use.

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Sarah Mojarad. (2020, October 23). What are some of the positive consequences of social media? Would love to hear your stories! [Tweet]. @Sarah_Mojarad. https://twitter.com/Sarah_Mojarad/status/1319722197766733825

Précisions cliniques non quantitatives d'une utilisation addictive du jeu vidéo

Evocation d'études épidémiologique en Asie, visiblement plus fournies mais non citées.

Rousseau was perfectly describing the intelligence and politics of Donald J. Trump when he described creatures which are like humans, but are "rushing headlong for their own chains". Trump was able to govern, but completely lacked the ability to imagine the consequences of any of his actions.

Not sure what name Rousseau gave these creatures. Which book was this in? Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality Among Men?

The work of Michael Saup explores the unintended consequences of design: Orbis Lumen.

+b (ORBIT) shows Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion Map of the earth built from multiple layers of white industrial sugar cubes and illuminated by the complete sequence of all nuclear explosions from 1945 until now. Using the cubes as three-dimensional pixels, +b emphasizes the intimate relationship between information, energy, resources and their impact on society and nature. +b stages the most extreme power released by humankind, irreversibly transforming the atmosphere and igniting the epoch of the nuclear Anthropocene with its application and supposed mastery of atomic power.

The work illustrates how this mastery is really the reiteration of a profound error and the subsequent compounding of that error. We keep on making mistakes. Some of these errors are extraordinarily beautiful and useful, some are terrifyingly destructive with long-term planetary impact, and many are both.

Interesting idea of changes with several reaches (near, far)... how could we visualize the cascades and scales of such changes?

This seems a solid microcosm of the idea of of privatizing profits and socializing the losses.

It also fits at the corporate level where a CEO who makes a horrible decision can wreck a company, but the low level blue collar worker or even low level white collar worker who steals hand tools or office supplies faces much larger consequences.

It's much harder to and more complicated to hold power to account, but we're obviously failing miserably at it in American society. How might we incrementally improve this situation. We desperately need it.

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A hospital in Uppsala saw 50% fewer cases of heart attacks during the peak COVID-19 period. The author posits that people might have been avoiding the emergency room out of fear or out of consideration. This might lead to more deaths later, however, as not getting treatment after a heart attack leads to higher chances of developing long-term complications.

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