- Apr 2020
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IJzerman, H., Lewis, N. A., Jr., Weinstein, N., DeBruine, L. M., Ritchie, S. J., Vazire, S., … Przybylski, A. K. (2020, April 27). Psychological Science is Not Yet a Crisis-Ready Discipline. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/whds4
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www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
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CDC. (2020, February 11). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Colombo, R., Wallace, M., & Taylor, R. S. (2020, April 11). An Essential Service Decision Model for Applied Behavior Analytic Providers During Crisis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/te8ha
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Rafiei, F., & Rahnev, D. (2020, April 9). Does the diffusion model account for the effects of speed-accuracy tradeoff on response times?. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/bhj85
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Taleb, N. N. (2019). On the Statistical Differences between Binary Forecasts and Real World Payoffs. ArXiv:1907.11162 [Physics, q-Fin]. http://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Liu, D., Clemente, L., Poirier, C., Ding, X., Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Vespignani, A., & Santillana, M. (2020). A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models. ArXiv:2004.04019 [Cs, q-Bio, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04019
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Wynants, L., Van Calster, B., Bonten, M. M. J., Collins, G. S., Debray, T. P. A., De Vos, M., Haller, M. C., Heinze, G., Moons, K. G. M., Riley, R. D., Schuit, E., Smits, L. J. M., Snell, K. I. E., Steyerberg, E. W., Wallisch, C., & van Smeden, M. (2020). Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: Systematic review and critical appraisal. BMJ, m1328. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1328
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Resnick, B. (2020 April 10). Why it's so hard to see into the future of Covid-19. Vox. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/10/21209961/coronavirus-models-covid-19-limitations-imhe
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Noorazar, H. (2020). Recent advances in opinion propagation dynamics: A 2020 Survey. ArXiv:2004.05286 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.05286
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Guido Salvaneschi on Twitter referencing thread by Neil Ferguson
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journal.sjdm.org journal.sjdm.org
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Dhami, Mandeep & Olsson, Henrik. (2008). Evolution of the interpersonal conflict paradigm. Judgment and Decision Making. 3. 547-569. http://journal.sjdm.org/8510/jdm8510.pdf
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www.centerforhealthsecurity.org www.centerforhealthsecurity.org
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Rivers, C., Martin, E., Gottlieb, S., Watson, C., Schoch-Spana, M., Mullen, L., Sell, T.K., Warmbrod, K.L., Hosangadi, D., Kobokovich, A., Potter, C., Cicero, A., Inglesby, T. (2020 April 17). Public health principles for a phased reopening during COVID-19: Guidance for governors. Johns Hopkins. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/public-health-principles-for-a-phased-reopening-during-covid-19-guidance-for-governors
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Ting, C., Palminteri, S., Lebreton, M., & Engelmann, J. B. (2020, March 25). The elusive effects of incidental anxiety on reinforcement-learning. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/7d4tc MLA
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Hahn, U., Lagnado, D., Lewandowsky, S., & Chater, N. (2020). Crisis knowledge management: Reconfiguring the behavioural science community for rapid responding in the Covid-19 crisis [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hsxdk
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blogs.lse.ac.uk blogs.lse.ac.uk
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says, D. S. (2020, April 7). “Inundated, overloaded and bombarded” – Seven insights for communicating research to busy policymakers. Impact of Social Sciences. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2020/04/07/inundated-overloaded-and-bombarded-seven-insights-for-communicating-research-to-busy-policymakers/
Tags
- communication
- decision
- research
- government
- is:blog
- language
- synthesis
- evidence
- UK
- lang:en
- support
- network
- policymaker
- reputation
- policy
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- Mar 2020
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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www.statefarm.com www.statefarm.com
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When you upgrade or improve your home, you may increase your home's estimated replacement cost. Your State Farm agent will then help you adjust your policy to meet your home insurance coverage needs.
explanations of parameters for decision
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wirfs-brock.com wirfs-brock.com
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The last responsible moment mindset can at times lull me (erroneously) into thinking that I’ll always have time to change my mind if I need to. I’m ever the optimist. Yet in order to work well with others and to produce habitable software I sometimes need a little more forethought. And so, I think I operate more effectively if I make decisions at the “most responsible moment” instead of the “last responsible moment”. I’m not a good enough of a designer (or maybe I am too much of an optimist) to know when the last responsible moment is. Just having a last-responsible moment mindset leaves me open to making late decisions. I’m sure this is not what Mary and Tom intended at all.
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decisions that initially appear to be localized (and not to impact others who are working in other areas) can and frequently do have ripple affects outside their initially perceived sphere of influence
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A lot of code follows after certain architectural choices are made and common approaches are agreed upon. Let’s make a rational decision and then vet it, not constantly revisit it, is my ideal.
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I am not known as someone who plans things far out in advance. As a consequence I rarely use frequent flyer miles because I don’t anticipate vacation plans far enough in advance.
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Deciding too late is dangerous, but deciding too early in the rapidly changing world of software development is arguably even more dangerous. Let the principle of Last Responsible Moment be your guide
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delay commitment until the last responsible moment, that is, the moment at which failing to make a decision eliminates an important alternative
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- Oct 2019
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Pour que la science soit un outil plus efficace de bien-être social, au moins dans une démocratie, il est important que les décideurs et le public dans son ensemble soient correctement informés et capables de faire la différence entre fait scientifique et fiction, entre controverse et polémique.
Une fois posé que le scientifique débat est bien et les autres non, il faut maintenant poser que la parole scientifique est nécessaire dans les débats de sociétés, auprès des décideurs qui ne doivent pas se laisser berner par la polémique. Posée comme cela, la proposition est parfaitement admissible et ne souffre aucun contestation. Sauf que... cela véhicule implicitement que le politique ne laisse embarquer dans la polémique uniquement parce qu'il est mal informé, comme si les décideurs n pouvaient pas avoir d'intérêts à ignorer le fait scientifique voir à alimenter la polémique. Il me semble avoir vu quelque exemples dans l'actualité récemment.
On est ici dans l'expression d'une opinion (le politique a besoin de l'information scientifique, mais y a insuffisamment accès ). Elle est moyennement vraisemblable. On pourrait lister dans l'actualité de nombreux exemple où l'information scientifique est instrumentalisées
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- Sep 2019
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scholarworks.gsu.edu scholarworks.gsu.edu
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Abstract
Abstract is a sales pitch and a guide; the authors summarize their entire paper into less than 100~200 words to draw you in and guide you throughout the rest of the paper.
This is a literature review on the relationship between the public opinion and foreign policy. The American public is, largely, regarded as uninterested and unaware of foreign policy. However, here the authors survey the literature and conclude that the public is able to hold a nuanced and coherent view on foreign policy and is able to make a voting decision based on this view.
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FOREIGNPOLICY AND THEELECTORALCONNECTION
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- Aug 2019
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github.com github.com
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Let's briefly look at the libraries, use cases, and factors that might help in deciding which is right for you. Here's a high-level decision tree: If you want fast and easy setup and integration, then component-playground may be the ticket! If you want a smaller bundle, SSR, and more flexibility, then react-live is for you! Here are the various factors at play:
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- Nov 2018
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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An evidence-based approach also includes informing patients about the pros and cons of medical options so that they can actively be part of the decision.So making a treatment decision in accordance with EBM means basing it on the best available knowledge from clinical research and medical practice. A number of factors play an important role in the decision. As well as the type and severity of the health problem, these include the person's general life situation, personal values and opinions.
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- Jul 2018
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aeon.co aeon.co
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Kahneman concluded his aforementioned presentation to academics by arguing that computers or robots are better than humans on three essential dimensions: they are better at statistical reasoning and less enamoured with stories; they have higher emotional intelligence; and they exhibit far more wisdom than humans.
A little over-the-top?
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‘omniscience in the observer’
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To illustrate, consider Isaac Newton.
But there are examples of where our theory has led us astray, the heliocentric vision of the universe being an example. If not for that attachment to previous thinking, we might have learned more quickly about the heliocentric truth.
'Even as He hath revealed: "As oft as an Apostle cometh unto you with that which your souls desire not, ye swell with pride, accusing some of being impostors and slaying others."' - Kitab-i-Iqan
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However, computers and algorithms – even the most sophisticated ones – cannot address the fallacy of obviousness. Put differently, they can never know what might be relevant.
One goal of systems science and modelling, to explore what might be relevant and give us better heuristics.
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At the other extreme we have behavioural economics, which focuses on human bias and blindness by pointing out biases or obvious things that humans miss.
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So, given the problem of too much evidence – again, think of all the things that are evident in the gorilla clip – humans try to hone in on what might be relevant for answering particular questions. We attend to what might be meaningful and useful
Consumat, heuristics - actually, this does work with thinking fast and slow. But maybe the divide isn't so clear - a spectrum?
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‘blind to the obvious, and that we also are blind to our blindness’
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building on Herbert Simon’s 1950s work on bounded rationality
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- May 2017
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content.iospress.com content.iospress.com
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for instance, those published as obscure and unstable links to supplemental data in narrative articles, not even (as a set) having a proper, machine-resolvable, Persistent, Unique Identifier (PID) which renders both the data elements themselves, as well as their metadata, non-machine-readable.
Another good phrase: obscure and unstable links to supplemental data.
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- Feb 2017
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static1.squarespace.com static1.squarespace.com
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decisive emotional experienc
A very compelling phrase here in terms of rhetoric with its triple emphasis on decision, emotions and experience.
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- Sep 2016
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hybridpedagogy.org hybridpedagogy.org
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ownership in educational systems
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- Oct 2015
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quod.lib.umich.edu quod.lib.umich.edu
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Ethical programs are enacted constantly, by both humans and computational machines, and software studies presents a set of terms and concepts for making sense of those programs.
I'll be interested in tracking how this ongoing-ness of constantly enacted ethical programs figure into "decisions.'
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