102 Matching Annotations
  1. Apr 2023
    1. "The transition to renewable energy, it is based on a longstanding ideology. And the longstanding ideology is that human ingenuity can solve our problems." Lisi Krall explains the downsides of renenwable energy, arguing that it isn't the answer to our problems.

      Where there is a problem to be solved, there is a focus of attention Where there is a focus of attention, there is simplification of a complex system Where there is simplification of a complex system, there is a vast amount of knowledge relationships that is ignored Where this is a vast amount of ignored knowledge relationships, there is the potential for a progress trap

      The systemic problem is the way our form of progress formulates problems and the inherent (over) simplification that comes with.that.

  2. Mar 2023
    1. we propose five cornerstones that help deal with the highlighted issues and categorize unintended consequences.

      5 principles for mitigating progress traps - 1) - a priori assessments of potential unintended consequences of policies - should be conducted by - multidisciplinary teams - with as broad a range of expertise as possible. - This would require decision-making - to flex around specific policy challenges - to ensure that decision-makers reflect the problem space in question. - 2) - policy plans made in light of the assessment should be iterative, - with scheduled re-assessments in the future. - As has been discussed above, - knowledge and circumstances change. - New consequences might have since - become manifest or new knowledge developed. - By planning and implementing reviews, - organizational reflexivity and - humility - needs to be built into decision-making systems (e.g., Treasury, 2020).

      • 3)
        • given the scale of systems
          • such as the water-energy-food nexus
        • and the potential for infinite variety and nuance of unintended consequences,
          • pragmatism necessitates specification of boundaries
            • within which assessments are made.
        • It should be noted that this can in itself give rise to unintended consequences
          • through potential omission of relevant areas.
        • Hence, boundary decisions regarding
          • where the boundaries lie
            • should be regularly revisited (as per 2) above.
      • 4)
        • unintended consequences identified
          • should be placed in the framework
            • with as much consensus among decision-makers as possible.
        • The positioning does not need to be limited to a single point,
          • but could be of the form of a distribution of opinions of range
            • of knowability and
            • avoidability;
          • the distribution will be indicative of
            • the perspectives and
            • opinions of the stakeholders.
        • If a lack of consensus exists on the exact position,
          • this can highlight a need to
            • seek more diverse expertise, or
            • for further research in order to improve consensus, or
            • for fragmenting of the issue into
              • smaller,
              • more readily assessable pieces.
      • 5)
        • there is a need for more active learning
          • by decision-makers
            • about how to avoid repeating past unintended consequences.
        • To support this,
          • assessment process and
          • outcomes should be
            • documented and
            • used
          • to appraise the effectiveness of policy mechanisms,
            • with specific attention on outcomes
              • beyond those defined by policy objectives and the
                • assumptions and
                • decisions
              • which led to these outcomes.
        • Such appraisals could reflect on - the scope of the assessment, and - the effectiveness of specific groups of stakeholders
          • in being able to identify potential negative outcomes,
            • highlighting gaps in knowledge and limitations in the overall approach.
        • Additional records of the level of agreement of participants
          • would allow for re-evaluation with new learning.
    2. Title: Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

      Abstract - Paraphrase - there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, - potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions need to accounted for. - “nexus” research is consistent with the above - it recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, - and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. - This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon: - how much is known about the system in question - and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. - The framework comprises four categories: - Knowable and Avoidable - Knowable and Unavoidable - Unknowable and Avoidable - Unknowable and Unavoidable - The categories are explored with reference to examples in both: - the water-energy-food nexus and - planetary boundary frameworks. - The examples: - highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and - explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. - The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used - to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward - secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, - avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

      // - This paper is principally about - progress traps, - how they emerge, - their characteristics - as they morph through the knowability / avoidability matrix - and how we might predict and mitigate them in the future

    1. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions
      • Title: Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions
      • Author:
        • Nicole L. Bolvin
        • Melinda A. Zeder
        • Dorian O. Fuller
        • Michael D. Petraglia
    1. We can no longer ignore the fact that the pursuit of the goodlife can impact the chances of others to live a good life.

      // - This becomes a moral and ethical question, indeed could it become a legal question? - If excessive wealth, leading to excessive personal carbon emissions and denial of the wellbeing of others, limiting the freedom of others, does this not constitute harm? - If the law is about preventing harm, then extreme wealth with adverse social impacts on many others could be construed and theoretically considered as a potential form of societal harm and hence come under legal considerations. - in other words, some forms of excessive wealth could be construed as harmful wealth - excessive wealth, as it exists today, could have unintended consequences of bringing about societal harm - excessive wealth is potentially a large progress trap

  3. Jan 2023
    1. it’s getting harder to engineer browser extensions well as web frontends become compiled artifacts that are ever further removed from their original source code
    1. the self is like that the self is like thinking that there's 01:01:22 something that is really underlying the chariot or underlying the dollar that gives it its value and there are some very nasty consequences of the self-illusion of taking ourselves to be 01:01:34 selves

      !- consequences of : solidifying self illusion

  4. Dec 2022
    1. Currently modes of software development, including free and open source software, are predicated on the division of society into three classes: “developers” who make software, “the business” who sponsor software making, and “users” who do whatever it is they do. An enabling free software movement would erase these distinctions, because it would give the ability (not merely the freedom) to study and change the software to anyone who wanted or needed it.
    1. Bellheads believed in "smart" networks. Netheads believed in what David Isenberg called "The Stupid Network," a "dumb pipe" whose only job was to let some people send signals to other people
  5. Oct 2022
    1. This costs about $650 USD to operate

      Crazy! This underscores how badly Mastodon—and ActivityPub, generally—need to be revved to enable network participation from low-cost (essentially free) static* sites.

      * quasi-static, really—in the way that RSS-enabled blogs are generally considered static sites

  6. Aug 2022
    1. Editorial: The real reason I wanted Cmm to succeed: to democratize programming. It wouldn’t belong in any business plan, and I seldom mentioned to anyone, but the real reason I wanted Cmm to succeed was not about making money (although paying the mortgage was always important). The real reason was because of the feeling I had when I programmed a computer to perform work for me
  7. Jul 2022
  8. bafybeibbaxootewsjtggkv7vpuu5yluatzsk6l7x5yzmko6rivxzh6qna4.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeibbaxootewsjtggkv7vpuu5yluatzsk6l7x5yzmko6rivxzh6qna4.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. This is likely to keep theattention ready for “surprises”, thus avoiding a sense of monotony setting in.More generally, the flow paradigm lacks the notion of adventure (Dickey, 2006; Heylighen,2012a), which can be characterized by a sequence of unforeseen challenges (dangers, opportunities,surprises...)—as contrasted with the foreseen challenges that we call ‘goals’. It is theunpredictability or unexpectedness of these challenges that creates the excitement that we typicallyassociate with an adventure, and that forms the basis of full emotional involvement. Adventure isassociated with the notions of exploration, curiosity and mystery: mystery can be defined as a lackof prospect that incites the emotion of curiosity, which in turns incites exploratory action(Heylighen, 2012a). Mystery and adventure are common features of game design (Dickey, 2006).However, their role will need further analysis if we want to apply them systematically tomobilization, given that they imply a level of uncertainty that—if experienced too intensely—mayproduce the anxiety that mobilization systems are trying to avoid.

      In solving the complex problems of the world, there can be many unintended consequences. These are the surprises that make each intervention an adventure. Applying a nexus approach such as MuSIASEM is critical to mitigate potential progress traps when dealing with rapid whole system change.

    2. The overall result is that it has become much more difficult for people to commit to anyparticular choice, and much easier for them to get distracted and abandon whatever they are busywith. The combination of distractability, lack of commitment, and procrastination (J. Heath &Anderson, 2010) results in poorly focused, inefficient, unreliable, and stressful work. Theseindividual effects are magnified at the social level: when several people suffering from such lack ofdedication collaborate on a common project, the result can only be poorly coordination, since noone knows exactly what to expect from the others. Thus, we come to the conclusion that while ICTundoubtedly has increased the mechanical productivity of work, it may well have decreased ourpsychological and social productivity, together with our overall level of involvement, satisfactionand well-being.

      Unintended consequences of information accessibility: 1. decreased psychological productivity 2. decreased social productivity 3. decreased level of engagement, satisfaction and wellbeing

  9. Jun 2022
    1. (a) What are the key levers and leverage points in social systems that might drive transformative change towards sustainability? (b) How are these derived from and perceived within and across academic literatures and in practice? (c) How might the levers and leverage points work together?

      Key questions are asked and the nexus approach of looking at the entire gestalt, consisting of many moving parts and their feedbacks is critical for avoiding and mitigating unintended consequences, also known as progress traps.

      Bringing this to a global public space to create engagement is critical to create a groundswell. The public must understand that leverage points offer us our greatest hope. Once they understand them, everyone can help to identify and participate in leverage points.

      Collectively mapping them and their many feedbacks in a global, open source map - an open knowledge commons (OKC) or open wisdom commons (OWC) for system change will drive global participation.

  10. May 2022
    1. A stretch target set for the second half of the twenty-first century is for it to be a time in which humanity has gained knowledge, experience, and confidence in dealing with an entangled security environment and coexisting with the hyperthreat. The collective global effort and learning during phases 1–4 will have allowed ingenious solutions for interdependence to emerge. It will be a time of flourishing invention and inspiration.

      A critical part of Deep Humanity is the elucidation of progress traps, the unintended consequences of progress. There is an urgent need to advocate for an entirely new human science discipline on progress traps. The reason is because the polycrisis can be seen and critically explained from a progress trap lens.

      Progress traps emerge from the unbridgeable gap between finite, reductionist human knowledge and the fractally infinite patterns of the universe and reality, which exists at all scales and dimensions.

      The failure to gain a system level understanding of this has led to the premature global scaling of technologies whose unintended consequences emerged after global markets have been established, causing a conflict of interest between biospheric wellbeing and individual profit.

      A systematic study or progress traps has rich data to draw from. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, there has been good records of scientific ideas, their associated engineering and technological exploitation and subsequent news media reports of their phase-delayed unintended consequences. Applying AI and a big data scientometric approach can yield patterns in which progress traps emerge. From this, our scientific-technological-industrial-capitalist framework can be modified to include improved regulatory mechanisms based on progress trap research that can systematically grade the risk factors of any new technology. Such risk categorization can result in technologies that require different time scales and aggregate knowledge understanding before they can be fully commercialized with time scale grades ranging from years to decades and even centuries.

      All future technology innovations must past through these systematic, evidence-based regulatory barriers before they can be introduced into widespread commercial use.

  11. Apr 2022
  12. Dec 2021
    1. Des symptômes évocateurs d’utilisation addictive des jeux vidéo ont été proposés [17] : un temps passé important (entravant les autres activités comme la scolarité), une réduction des relations familiales, sociales et amicales, un isolement au domicile, des répercussions sur le sommeil, l’alimentation, et sur le travail scolaire, une incapacité à réduire le temps de jeu, une souffrance psychique rattachée à l’utilisation des jeux (tristesse, anxiété, agressivité).

      Précisions cliniques non quantitatives d'une utilisation addictive du jeu vidéo

    2. Les études épidémiologiques récentes en population générale d’enfants et adolescents, réalisées dans les pays asiatiques donneraient une prévalence d’addiction autour de 10 % [20].

      Evocation d'études épidémiologique en Asie, visiblement plus fournies mais non citées.

    1. the really insidious part about it is not the idea of the noble savage actually there is no noble savage in Russo's 00:54:51 discourse because his state of nature involves creatures which are like humans but actually lack any sort of philosophy at all because what they call do is project their own lives into the 00:55:05 future and imagine themselves in other states they're constantly inventing things and chasing their own tails or rushing headlong for their own chains as he puts it they invent agriculture but 00:55:18 they can't see the consequences they invent cities but they can't see the consequences so we're talking about no imagination

      Rousseau was perfectly describing the intelligence and politics of Donald J. Trump when he described creatures which are like humans, but are "rushing headlong for their own chains". Trump was able to govern, but completely lacked the ability to imagine the consequences of any of his actions.

      Not sure what name Rousseau gave these creatures. Which book was this in? Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality Among Men?

  13. Oct 2021
    1. Michael Saup

      The work of Michael Saup explores the unintended consequences of design: Orbis Lumen.

      +b (ORBIT) shows Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion Map of the earth built from multiple layers of white industrial sugar cubes and illuminated by the complete sequence of all nuclear explosions from 1945 until now. Using the cubes as three-dimensional pixels, +b emphasizes the intimate relationship between information, energy, resources and their impact on society and nature. +b stages the most extreme power released by humankind, irreversibly transforming the atmosphere and igniting the epoch of the nuclear Anthropocene with its application and supposed mastery of atomic power.

      The work illustrates how this mastery is really the reiteration of a profound error and the subsequent compounding of that error. We keep on making mistakes. Some of these errors are extraordinarily beautiful and useful, some are terrifyingly destructive with long-term planetary impact, and many are both.

  14. Sep 2021
    1. This might be “nearby” behavior (such as order of creation of some objects in the same function), or a distant effect, such as change in behavior of a button on a web application.

      Interesting idea of changes with several reaches (near, far)... how could we visualize the cascades and scales of such changes?

  15. Jul 2021
    1. As an Army officer in Iraq wrote in 2007, “A private who loses a rifle suffers far greater consequences than a general who loses a war.”

      This seems a solid microcosm of the idea of of privatizing profits and socializing the losses.

      It also fits at the corporate level where a CEO who makes a horrible decision can wreck a company, but the low level blue collar worker or even low level white collar worker who steals hand tools or office supplies faces much larger consequences.

      It's much harder to and more complicated to hold power to account, but we're obviously failing miserably at it in American society. How might we incrementally improve this situation. We desperately need it.

  16. Apr 2021
    1. Yet, it certainly is important to make the proper choices when picking up style. Similarly to fashion, code style reflects our credo as developers, our values and philosophy. In order to make an informed decision, it’s mandatory to understand the issue at stake well. We all have defined class methods many times, but do we really know how do they work?
  17. Mar 2021
    1. CONSEQUENCES JURIDIQUES DU DEFAUT D’ACCUSE DE RECEPTION. Article L112-6 CRPASi l’administration n’accuse pas réception de la demande, ou le fait demanière incorrecte (mentions incomplètes ou erronées), les délais derecours ne sont pas opposables à l’auteur de la demande.L’usager pourra donc contester votre décision implicite à tout momentdevant la juridiction administrative.Il est donc important pour la sécurité juridique de vos décisions, derespecter les règles tant sur la forme que sur le fond.
  18. Feb 2021
  19. Jan 2021
    1. This unintended consequence can be traced to construct underrepresentation—a source of invalidity—and is thus relevant to valid-ity concerns.Of course, unintended consequences are not always negative.



  20. Nov 2020
    1. I think it’ll probably be a few years before we know the full extent to which people were harmed by this. As an example, the hospital in Uppsala experienced 50% fewer admissions due to cardiac infarctions (“heart attacks”) during the peak period, while the hospitals in Stockholm experienced 40% fewer admissions. We know that people who have a cardiac infarction and don’t get emergency treatment have a significantly increased risk of dying in the immediate future, and also have a greater risk of developing long term complications such as heart failure.

      A hospital in Uppsala saw 50% fewer cases of heart attacks during the peak COVID-19 period. The author posits that people might have been avoiding the emergency room out of fear or out of consideration. This might lead to more deaths later, however, as not getting treatment after a heart attack leads to higher chances of developing long-term complications.

  21. Oct 2020
    1. One of the primary tasks of engineers is to minimize complexity. JSX changes such a fundamental part (syntax and semantics of the language) that the complexity bubbles up to everything it touches. Pretty much every pipeline tool I've had to work with has become far more complex than necessary because of JSX. It affects AST parsers, it affects linters, it affects code coverage, it affects build systems. That tons and tons of additional code that I now need to wade through and mentally parse and ignore whenever I need to debug or want to contribute to a library that adds JSX support.
    1. The misspelling of referrer originated in the original proposal by computer scientist Phillip Hallam-Baker to incorporate the field into the HTTP specification.[4] The misspelling was set in stone by the time of its incorporation into the Request for Comments standards document RFC 1945; document co-author Roy Fielding has remarked that neither "referrer" nor the misspelling "referer" were recognized by the standard Unix spell checker of the period.
  22. Sep 2020
  23. Aug 2020
  24. Jul 2020
  25. Jun 2020
    1. Il est communément admis aujourd’hui, grâce notamment aux neurosciences, que les brimades, insultes, humiliations, ou autres formes de violences physiques ou morales entraînent des conséquences sur le développement de l’enfant et sur sa santé future. De tels faits à l’égard d’enfants pris en charge dans des structures d’accueil collectif pourraient être considérés comme relevant de la procédure dite d’urgence et permettre de se dispenser du signalement auprès du supérieur hiérarchique pour donner lieu directement à un signalement à l’autorité judiciaire et être éventuellement médiatisés, tout en bénéficiant de la protection du lanceur d’alerte
    1. Saltelli, A., Bammer, G., Bruno, I., Charters, E., Di Fiore, M., Didier, E., Nelson Espeland, W., Kay, J., Lo Piano, S., Mayo, D., Pielke Jr, R., Portaluri, T., Porter, T. M., Puy, A., Rafols, I., Ravetz, J. R., Reinert, E., Sarewitz, D., Stark, P. B., … Vineis, P. (2020). Five ways to ensure that models serve society: A manifesto. Nature, 582(7813), 482–484. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01812-9

  26. May 2020
  27. Apr 2020
    1. create the consequences that work with your personality.

      This is key. The Trump donation consequence speaks to me. That'd be awful to have to do.

      I need to hold my project out in front of my greatest enemy. If I finish it, my project and I live on, thrive, and enjoy watching the world enjoy the newfound sense of well-being they've gained as a result of connecting with my work.

      But if I fail, my enemy wins, suddenly causing me to be a part of the problem my work was supposed to be designed to cease.

  28. Mar 2020
    1. I've been meaning to remind readers that I do read the comments. Some time ago, one disappointed commenter mused that others' reflections seemed to go (as I recall) "into a void," because I remained silent to each. Perhaps I was ignoring readers' remarks? I assure you that is not the case. I read them all — although on this site, for some reason, "all" means somewhat sparse — and I find them nearly all remarkable in their perceptiveness. I especially welcome, and enjoy, intelligent disagreement. I choose not to respond, however, only because of my editorial philosophy, which holds that the comment section is, rightfully, for commenters — and commenters alone. I've already had my say, and it seems to me rather rude to take another whack in reply. Whenever I'm so substantively shaky or incoherent as to make my case unpersuasively the first time around, I figure I should live with the consequences. And whenever I find criticism flawed, I figure readers — perceptive as they are — will see the flaw as well, therefore there's no need for me to rub it in. So, I beg you not to take my silence personally.
    2. Whenever I'm so substantively shaky or incoherent as to make my case unpersuasively the first time around, I figure I should live with the consequences. And whenever I find criticism flawed, I figure readers — perceptive as they are — will see the flaw as well, therefore there's no need for me to rub it in.
  29. Dec 2019
  30. Aug 2019
  31. Jun 2019
    1. “Because the bully had no prior record of bullying, and even though there were so many different days and incidents of physical assault, it was treated as a one-time offense, and for a one-time offense you just get a short talk and a call home,”

      In order for suspension and expulsion, there must be multiple offense. In this case, there are witnesses and a confession, but that is not enough. Even though there were many different days and incidents of physical assault this is considered a one-time offense? A short talk and a phone call home is the consequences of a death threat and physical assault? Where is the importance of bullying would not be tolerated? Where is the importance of ensuring the victim's safety? This is why this whole system fail to tackle on the issue of bullying. The limit of what the school can do is unjust. How is that resolved? The victim and their family would still feel unsafe, fear, and paranoia.

  32. Mar 2019
  33. www.ahip.org www.ahip.org
    1. Health plans know that Medicaid needs to work for people who rely on it –and the hardworking taxpayers who pay for it.Studies show that the vast majority of Medicaid enrollees have regular access to care and that they are satisfied with their care.1Medicaid health plans focus on detecting and preventing the progression of chronic diseases, coordinating services across the continuum of care, and delivering programs targeted to individual needs

      Operating loosely from the coordinated specialty care approach the ability of managed care plans to secure services for patients across their diverse needs is a central to the quality of public health and underscores the impact that removing such ability would have on the public at large.

    2. Most notably, we are concernedabout proposedtechnical changes in federal rate-setting standards that would be inconsistent with statutory actuarial soundness requirementswhichensure that payments to Medicaid managed care plans are reasonable and appropriate

      This statement seems to hint at the likelihood that proposals would undermine the efficacy of medicaid to secure services and maintain financial viability over time of implementation. As mentioned by AEH (Americas Essential Hospitals) most organization are operating on little to no profit margin: https://essentialhospitals.org/general/statement-on-house-reconciliation-legislation/ which means that cuts such as these could result in reductions to staff and hospital services overall.

    1. Moreover, reduced federal funding combined with state-specific eligibility and enrollment restrictions will likely result in fewer cancer patients accessing needed health care. For low-income individuals these changes could be the difference between an early diagnosis when outcomes are better and costs are less or a late diagnosis where costs are higher and survival less likely.

      Reducing availability of funds for individuals needing treatment adds overwhelming weight to the public health crisis and early intervention leads to reduced health costs and improved overall outcomes. For minority populations these changes could present compounded risk due to already existing disparities in treatment : https://www.cancer.gov/about-nci/legislative/hearings/2000-ethnic-minority-disparities-cancer-treatment.pdf as black americans already face higher rates of overall incidence of cancer and higher rates of death than their white counterparts.

    2. In 2015, approximately 1.5 million people with a history of cancer between 18-64 years old relied on Medicaid for their insurance.  Nearly one-third of childhood cancer patients are insured through Medicaid at the time of diagnosis.

      The implications of lesser coverage would be vast particularly for children insured through medicaid during their time of diagnosis. These individuals may face additional risk to their healthcare assess due to changes in regulatory protections currently being proposed (i.e. protections for pre-existing conditions).

      Joshua Cohens explains the Trumps administrations approach at eroding foundations built within the ACA https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2018/10/08/possible-removal-of-pre-existing-conditions-protections/#edf0450e8aef

  34. Jan 2019
    1. our hesitation is not unjustified.

      I think that hesitation as a response itself to the question "what is rhetoric?" can indicate that the person being asked understands the consequences and complexities surrounding the question and its answer.

  35. Sep 2017
    1. One can imagine new nuclear terror driving a new push for nuclear disarmament, but one could also imagine states feeling more certain than ever before that they needed nuclear weapons

      If a crude bomb could have this effect a highly engineered bomb would have far worse longer reaching consequences

    1. Admittedly, most high-tech interventions in the body’s functioning aim merely at restoring ordinary human health, or else at least opposing its decline. But that might easily change as our methods grow in power. Already, many interventions do much more than this, or something rather different

      Not to sound ominous, but this coul