- Sep 2020
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www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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BBC Radio 4—The Life Scientific, Neil Ferguson on modelling Covid-19. (n.d.). BBC. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mt0h
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www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
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Why New York’s in a Depression and Texas Isn’t. (2020, September 21). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-21/why-a-coronavirus-recession-in-florida-is-a-depression-in-new-york
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www.besserweiter.de www.besserweiter.de
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www.besserweiter.de. (n.d.). Corona-Studie: Züge sind sicher, kein erhöhtes Risiko. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.besserweiter.de/corona-studie-zuege-sind-sicher-kein-erhoehtes-risiko.html
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www.scotsman.com www.scotsman.com
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Beware comforting lies about a “herd immunity” Covid-19 strategy. Here’s why it’s dangerous – Professor Devi Sridhar. (n.d.). Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/covid-19-herd-immunity-strategy-flawed-until-we-have-coronavirus-vaccine-professor-devi-sridhar-2981017
Tags
- safety
- herd immunity
- government response
- antibody
- uncertainty
- strategy
- vaccine
- lang:en
- prediction
- COVID-19
- epidemiology
- is:news
- protection
Annotators
URL
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unherd.com unherd.com
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Is this the second wave? (2020, September 22). UnHerd. https://unherd.com/2020/09/do-we-need-a-second-lockdown/
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Ruktanonchai, N. W., Floyd, J. R., Lai, S., Ruktanonchai, C. W., Sadilek, A., Rente-Lourenco, P., Ben, X., Carioli, A., Gwinn, J., Steele, J. E., Prosper, O., Schneider, A., Oplinger, A., Eastham, P., & Tatem, A. J. (2020). Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe. Science, 369(6510), 1465–1470. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Saad-Roy, C. M., Wagner, C. E., Baker, R. E., Morris, S. E., Farrar, J., Graham, A. L., Levin, S. A., Mina, M. J., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2020). Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7343
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(((Howard Forman))) on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1308107599682756609
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Graham Cooke on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/grahamscooke/status/1308132497822281728
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Imperial College on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1307693797074178049
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Intuitive EPI - Channel introduction. (n.d.). Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMO2-Hf2-EY
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Adam Kucharski on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 22, 2020, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1307231588732764161
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Friston, K., Costello, A., & Pillay, D. (2020). Dark matter, second waves and epidemiological modelling. MedRxiv, 2020.09.01.20185876. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.01.20185876
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Salvador, C. E., Berg, M. K., Yu, Q., Martin, A. S., & Kitayama, S. (2020). Relational Mobility Predicts Faster Spread of COVID-19: A 39-Country Study: Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620958118
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Carl T. Bergstrom on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 22, 2020, from https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1306995362368954369
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www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
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Hospitals told not to test staff or patients for Covid-19. (2020, September 18). The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-testing-hospitals-shortage-b485589.html
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Doshi, P. (2020). Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity? BMJ, 370. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3563
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Webinar series DAY 1 - Insights into COVID-19 modelling & evidence-based policy making. Retrieved from on 21/09/2020 from https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNzrUckV9eSJAybOPMPxPulI0bciy8HXf
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Webinar series DAY 2 - Insights into COVID-19 modelling & evidence-based policy making. Retrieved on 21/09/2020 from https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNzrUckV9eSJIF41YCUaUWHOg_CTxmc99
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Take away: The claim here is ultimately a value judgement, but the data used to support the claim is subject to examination. Overall the source for the presented data was not identifiable and the overall argument requires greater context to evaluate.
The claim: Students are harmed more by not being in school/sports than by COVID-19.
The evidence: The claim is supported by a single data table. Unfortunately, the source for the table presented was not found. It is well documented that the infection fatality rate in age groups 15-24 is lower than for older age groups, however the actual infection fatality rate for this age group is still not entirely clear. As one example, the CDC website has two data sets to estimate COVID-19 deaths. One is provisional COVID-19 deaths with 242 deaths reported in the age group 15-24 in the entire United States. The second dataset estimates COVID-19 deaths based on the increase over the number of expected deaths based on historical data. The second dataset does not present data for 15-24 age group, only "under 25 years." The lower range of the second dataset is ~10,000 deaths in people under 25 years in Florida above the expected deaths for the year. These deaths may be attributed to COVID-19.
Regardless, no data is presented which measures how students are harmed by not being in school. Additional data needs to be presented for the claim to be validated including measurable metrics by which students are harmed. These are not presented in the Twitter post.
Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html#:~:text=As%20you%20get%20older%2C%20your,than%20people%20in%20their%2050s.
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WIRED. (2020, September 12). How does a Sturgis-sized crowd affect COVID-19? It’s complicated. Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/how-does-a-sturgis-sized-crowd-affect-covid-19-its-complicated/
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ncrc.jhsph.edu ncrc.jhsph.edu
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The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19 | NCRC. (2020, September 3). 2019 Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC). https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/the-contagion-externality-of-a-superspreading-event-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-and-covid-19/
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www.jbs.cam.ac.uk www.jbs.cam.ac.uk
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Flu and coronavirus. (2020, July 2). Cambridge Judge Business School. https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/insight/2020/flu-and-coronavirus/
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www.rsm.ac.uk www.rsm.ac.uk
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Covid-19: Herd immunity in Sweden fails to materialise | The Royal Society of Medicine. (n.d.). Retrieved September 18, 2020, from https://www.rsm.ac.uk/media-releases/2020/covid-19-herd-immunity-in-sweden-fails-to-materialise/
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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Report 13—Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries. (n.d.). Imperial College London. Retrieved September 18, 2020, from http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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ACTUAL DOCTOR WATCHES COVID PSEUDOSCIENCE VIDEO. (2020, September 15). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUDg5ossirU&feature=youtu.be
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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T cell immunity: What is it and how does it help to protect us from COVID-19? | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Imperial News. Retrieved September 18, 2020, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201833/cell-immunity-what-does-help-protect/
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Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know. (n.d.). Mayo Clinic. Retrieved September 18, 2020, from https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
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jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
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Gao, S., Rao, J., Kang, Y., Liang, Y., Kruse, J., Dopfer, D., Sethi, A. K., Reyes, J. F. M., Yandell, B. S., & Patz, J. A. (2020). Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US. JAMA Network Open, 3(9), e2020485–e2020485. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.20485
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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COVID-19 reports. (n.d.). Imperial College London. Retrieved September 17, 2020, from http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-reports/
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news.northeastern.edu news.northeastern.edu
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If rich countries monopolize COVID-19 vaccines, it could cause twice as many deaths as distributing them equally. (n.d.). Retrieved September 17, 2020, from https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/09/14/if-rich-countries-monopolize-covid-19-vaccines-it-could-cause-twice-as-many-deaths-as-distributing-them-equally/
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Giles, J. R., Erbach-Schoenberg, E. zu, Tatem, A. J., Gardner, L., Bjørnstad, O. N., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Wesolowski, A. (2020). The duration of travel impacts the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(36), 22572–22579. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922663117
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elemental.medium.com elemental.medium.com
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Austin S. (2020) This Lawyer Ran Errands for His High-Risk Wife. Then an Epidemiologist Rated His Every Move.https://elemental.medium.com/this-lawyer-ran-errands-for-his-high-risk-wife-then-an-epidemiologist-rated-his-every-move-f9a926ad96ec
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REACT-1: Real-time assessment of community transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) in August 2020. (n.d.). GOV.UK. Retrieved September 15, 2020, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/react-1-study-of-coronavirus-transmission-august-2020-results/react-1-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-of-coronavirus-covid-19-in-august-2020
Tags
- report
- infection
- testing
- transmission
- lang:en
- community
- August
- prevalence
- COVID-19
- contact
- epidemiology
- is:webpage
- risk factor
Annotators
URL
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www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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Biswas, T. V. and D. J. T., Soutik. (2020, September 14). Tracking the pandemic: Where are the global hotspots? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Maria Sundaram PhD on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 14, 2020, from https://twitter.com/mariasundaram/status/1304453386914402304
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www.politico.com www.politico.com
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Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19. (n.d.). POLITICO. Retrieved September 14, 2020, from https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Lewis, T. (n.d.). Nine COVID-19 Myths That Just Won’t Go Away. Scientific American. Retrieved September 11, 2020, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nine-covid-19-myths-that-just-wont-go-away/
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outbreaksci.prereview.org outbreaksci.prereview.org
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Outbreak Science Rapid PREreview • Dashboard. (n.d.). Retrieved September 11, 2020, from https://outbreaksci.prereview.org/dashboard?q=COVID-19&q=Coronavirus&q=SARS-CoV-2
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retractionwatch.com retractionwatch.com
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Marcus, A. A. (2020, September 8). COVID-19 arrived on a meteorite, claims Elsevier book chapter. Retraction Watch. https://retractionwatch.com/2020/09/08/covid-19-arrived-on-a-meteorite-claims-elsevier-book-chapter/
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Spiegelhalter, D. (2020). Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19. BMJ, 370. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3259
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www.itv.com www.itv.com
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Peston, R. (2020, September 7). SAGE scientist warns coronavirus cases “increasing exponentially.” ITV News. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-07/exclusive-sage-scientist-tells-peston-coronavirus-cases-increasing-exponentially
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It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy.
The takeaway: Reported numbers of asymptomatic individuals are discordant but generally are less than 20% of reported cases.
The claim: Half of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic.
The evidence: 17.9% of the Diamond Princess ship were asymptomatic (1). Only 48 out of 473 total cases were from asymptomatic individuals in Iceland (2). The initial analysis of China's asymptomatic cases was 1% (3). A research article summarizing data from China and Italy lists China's asymptomatic cases as 80.9% and Italy's asymptomatic cases as 8.5% (4). It appears that mild symptoms and asymptomatic cases were combined in reference 4 for China's data as mild symptom numbers were N/A.
Therefore, there is no consensus on the number of asymptomatic individuals. Additional clarity is needed in the data before conclusions can be made based on the number of asymptomatic individuals.
Sources:
1 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
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Thread, C. (2020, June 19). Trolls and Tribulations: Social Media and Public Health. Medium. https://medium.com/@gocommonthread/trolls-and-tribulations-social-media-and-public-health-499bf5c8727c
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Somerville, Northeastern Partner To Look For Coronavirus In City Sewage. (n.d.). Retrieved September 8, 2020, from https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/09/03/city-sewage-coronavirus
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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Kahn, R., Kennedy-Shaffer, L., Grad, Y. H., Robins, J. M., & Lipsitch, M. (n.d.). Potential Biases Arising from Epidemic Dynamics in Observational Seroprotection Studies. American Journal of Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa188
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Casoria, F., Galeotti, F., & Villeval, M. C. (2020). Perceived Social Norm and Behavior Quickly Adjusted to Legal Changes During the COVID-19 Pandemic (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3681204). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3681204
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Team, I. C.-19 F., & Hay, S. I. (2020). COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. MedRxiv, 2020.07.12.20151191. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151191
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www.factcheck.org www.factcheck.org
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Spencer, S. H. (2020, September 1). CDC Did Not “Admit Only 6%” of Recorded Deaths from COVID-19. FactCheck.Org. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/09/cdc-did-not-admit-only-6-of-recorded-deaths-from-covid-19/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(((Howard Forman))) on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1302722027665666048
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Clifford, S., Quilty, B. J., Russell, T. W., Liu, Y., Chan, Y.-W. D., Pearson, C. A. B., Eggo, R. M., Endo, A., Group, C. C.-19 W., Flasche, S., & Edmunds, W. J. (2020). Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers. MedRxiv, 2020.07.24.20161281. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281
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Explore airport testing to cut quarantine—Labour. (2020, September 6). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54045057
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Kermack–McKendrick theory. (2020). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kermack%E2%80%93McKendrick_theory&oldid=951835485
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Boston, 677 Huntington Avenue, & Ma 02115 +1495‑1000. (2020, March 4). Coronavirus (COVID-19): Press Conference with Marc Lipsitch, 03/04/20. News. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/coronavirus-covid-19-press-conference-with-marc-lipsitch-03-04-20/
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Miller, J. C., & TIng, T. (2019). EoN (Epidemics on Networks): A fast, flexible Python package for simulation, analytic approximation, and analysis of epidemics on networks. Journal of Open Source Software, 4(44), 1731. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01731
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Nuzzo, J. B., & Sharfstein, J. M. (2020, July 1). Opinion | We Have to Focus on Opening Schools, Not Bars. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/opinion/coronavirus-schools.html
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Stix, G. (n.d.). Zoom Psychiatrists Prep for COVID-19’s Endless Ride. Scientific American. Retrieved June 9, 2020, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/zoom-psychiatrists-prep-for-covid-19s-endless-ride1/
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Spinney, L. (2020, May 31). Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: “Germany may have more immunological ‘dark matter.’” The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter
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news.northeastern.edu news.northeastern.edu
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How network science models can predict the next stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. (n.d.). Retrieved June 10, 2020, from https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/05/14/how-network-science-models-can-predict-the-next-stages-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Tags
- loosening restrictions
- university
- interview
- modeling
- lang:en
- school
- network
- COVID-19
- prediction
- epidemiology
- is:news
- reopening
Annotators
URL
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www.spiked-online.com www.spiked-online.com
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Covid-19 is far more widespread than we think. (n.d.). Retrieved June 22, 2020, from https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/06/19/covid-19-is-far-more-widespread-than-we-think/
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www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
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covid19mm.github.io covid19mm.github.io
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Sixth Report. (2020, June 19). COVID-19 Mobility Monitoring Project. https://covid19mm.github.io//in-progress/2020/06/19/sixth-report.html
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r/BehSciAsk—Integrating Behavioural Science into Epidimiology. (n.d.). Reddit. Retrieved June 27, 2020, from https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciAsk/comments/hg501h/integrating_behavioural_science_into_epidimiology/
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Study of secondary COVID-19 cases underscores importance of physical distancing. (n.d.). Retrieved September 3, 2020, from https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200901/study-of-secondary-covid19-cases-underscores-importance-of-physical-distancing
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Kapatel, P. M., & Malik, N. ara. (2020). Probable immersions for novel Coronavirus and its preventions: A systematic review [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y34uv
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Chu, H., Chan, J. F.-W., Yuen, T. T.-T., Shuai, H., Yuan, S., Wang, Y., Hu, B., Yip, C. C.-Y., Tsang, J. O.-L., Huang, X., Chai, Y., Yang, D., Hou, Y., Chik, K. K.-H., Zhang, X., Fung, A. Y.-F., Tsoi, H.-W., Cai, J.-P., Chan, W.-M., … Yuen, K.-Y. (2020). Comparative tropism, replication kinetics, and cell damage profiling of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV with implications for clinical manifestations, transmissibility, and laboratory studies of COVID-19: An observational study. The Lancet Microbe, 1(1), e14–e23. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30004-5
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Blokland, I. V. van, Lanting, P., Ori, A. P., Vonk, J. M., Warmerdam, R. C., Herkert, J. C., Boulogne, F., Claringbould, A., Lopera-Maya, E. A., Bartels, M., Hottenga, J.-J., Ganna, A., Karjalainen, J., Study, L. C.-19 cohort, Initiative, T. C.-19 H. G., Hayward, C., Fawns-Ritchie, C., Campbell, A., Porteous, D., … Franke, L. H. (2020). Using symptom-based case predictions to identify host genetic factors that contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility. MedRxiv, 2020.08.21.20177246. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.21.20177246
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Salo, J. (2020, August 27). CDC study reveals evidence of COVID-19 spreading in airplanes. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/cdc-study-reveals-how-coronavirus-can-spread-in-airplanes/
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Leatherby, L., & Jones, L. W. (2020, August 31). U.S. Coronavirus Rates Are Rising Fast Among Children. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/31/us/coronavirus-cases-children.html
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van Smeden, M., Lash, T. L., & Groenwold, R. H. H. (2020). Reflection on modern methods: Five myths about measurement error in epidemiological research. International Journal of Epidemiology, 49(1), 338–347. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz251
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Lancet, T. (2020). Research and higher education in the time of COVID-19. The Lancet, 396(10251), 583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31818-3
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Tags
- proliferating observational treatment
- randomised clinical trials
- noise
- is:report
- COVID-19
- benefits
- benefits and risks
- confusion
- therapies
- reliable truth
- assessments
- observational
- false confidence
- RCTs
- lang:en
- causation
- epidemiology
- nonrandomised studies
- risks
- treatment
- clinical management
Annotators
URL
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Mandavilli, A. (2020, August 17). What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Sajadi, M. M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., & Amoroso, A. (2020). Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19 (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3550308). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550308
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Carey, B., & Glanz, J. (2020, July 30). Aboard the Diamond Princess, a Case Study in Aerosol Transmission. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/health/diamond-princess-coronavirus-aerosol.html
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Qu, J., Cai, Z., Liu, Y., Duan, X., Han, S., Zhu, Y., Jiang, Z., Zhang, Y., Zhuo, C., Liu, Y., Liu, Y., Liu, L., & Yang, L. (2020). Persistent bacterial coinfection of a COVID-19 patient caused by a genetically adapted Pseudomonas aeruginosa chronic colonizer. BioRxiv, 2020.08.05.238998. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.05.238998
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Lednicky, J. A., Lauzardo, M., Fan, Z. H., Jutla, A. S., Tilly, T. B., Gangwar, M., Usmani, M., Shankar, S. N., Mohamed, K., Eiguren-Fernandez, A., Stephenson, C. J., Alam, M. M., Elbadry, M. A., Loeb, J. C., Subramaniam, K., Waltzek, T. B., Cherabuddi, K., Morris, J. G., & Wu, C.-Y. (2020). Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients. MedRxiv, 2020.08.03.20167395. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395
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Mather, N. (2020). How we accelerated clinical trials in the age of coronavirus. Nature, 584(7821), 326–326. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02416-z
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Jiang. L.Tang. K. Levin. M. Irfan. O. Morris. S. (2020) COVID-19 and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Retrieved from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30651-4/fulltext
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Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says
Take away: Dr. Van Kerkhove appeared to refer to only “asymptomatic” individuals and not “presymptomatic” individuals in her statement. Clarification from the WHO, and public availability of the data leading to the claim, is needed for proper interpretation. At the current time, existing published data indicates that a significant amount of SARS-CoV-2 infections are due to individuals who did not have symptoms when they spread the virus.
The claim: According to the WHO, asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare’.
The evidence: This statement is attributed to WHO official Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove during a recent news conference. It deserves greater clarification from the WHO, but Dr. Van Kerkhove appears to make the distinction between “asymptomatic” and “pre-symptomatic” individuals during her comments. This distinction is essential for proper interpretation of her statement. “Asymptomatic” refers to persons who test positive, but who never display symptoms throughout the course of their SARS-CoV-2 infection. In contrast, “presymptomatic” individuals are those with confirmed infection, who do not currently display symptoms, but later go on to develop COVID-19 related symptoms (fever, cough, loss of taste/smell, etc).
Importantly, the distinction between asymptomatic and presymptomatic can only be made retrospectively. From a clinical standpoint, if someone currently has no symptoms, but tests positive, there is no way of knowing at that time if they are “asymptomatic” or “presymptomatic”. Preliminary data estimates that around 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are truly “asymptomatic”.
If “asymptomatic” individuals were rarely involved in transmission of the virus, this would be an important finding, but from a practical standpoint if “presymptomatic” individuals still spread the virus (as the data indicates), then the rationale for preventative measures still stands. Early studies [1] [2] have estimated that up to 40-60% of virus spread occurs when people don’t have symptoms. Preventative measures such as social distancing and universal mask wearing have been implemented to prevent the spread of virus from individuals not currently demonstrating symptoms.
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Lewis, D. (2020). ‘We felt we had beaten it’: New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02402-5
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Levin, A. T., Cochran, K. B., & Walsh, S. P. (2020). Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Meta-Analysis & Public Policy Implications (Working Paper No. 27597; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27597
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Bisin, A., & Moro, A. (2020). Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-SIR Model with Behavioral Responses (Working Paper No. 27590; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27590
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Porter, C. (2020, June 5). The Top Doctor Who Aced the Coronavirus Test. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/world/canada/bonnie-henry-british-columbia-coronavirus.html
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COVID Recovery Dashboard. Retrieved from https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1363 on 12/08/2020
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‘Coronavirus Cases Surge as France Goes “Wrong Way”’. BBC News, 11 August 2020, sec. Europe. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53745481.
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Alon, T., Kim, M., Lagakos, D., & VanVuren, M. (2020). How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World? (Working Paper No. 27273; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27273
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Glaeser, E. L., Gorback, C. S., & Redding, S. J. (2020). How Much does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities (Working Paper No. 27519; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27519
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Kuchler, T., Russel, D., & Stroebel, J. (2020). The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook (Working Paper No. 26990; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26990
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Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown (Working Paper No. 26981; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26981
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Berger, D. W., Herkenhoff, K. F., & Mongey, S. (2020). An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine (Working Paper No. 26901; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26901
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Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2020). The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining (Working Paper No. 27104; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27104
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Aguas, R., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Goncalves, G., Ferreira, M. U., & Gomes, M. G. M. (2020). Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. MedRxiv, 2020.07.23.20160762. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762
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Did California’s Shelter-In-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 8, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13160/
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Occupational Exposure to Contagion and the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13227/
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Air Pollution Exposure and COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/air-pollution-exposure-and-covid-19/
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Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13257/
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Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-In-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13262/
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Partial Lockdown and the Spread of COVID-19: Lessons from the Italian Case. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13375/
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Pandemic Meets Pollution: Poor Air Quality Increases Deaths by COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 31, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13418/
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Socioeconomic Determinants of COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: Evidence from England and Wales. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/pp159/
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 29, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13293/
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Exploring the Relationship between Care Homes and Excess Deaths in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Italy. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 27, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13492/
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Covid State of Play: Jonathan Zittrain & Margaret Bourdeaux with Beth Cameron & KJ Seung. (2020, July 29). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVn9kn88C_Q
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Coronavirus: Can kids spread COVID-19? Your questions answered. (n.d.). Indystar. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/07/17/coronavirus-can-kids-spread-covid-19-spreadquestions-answered/5450062002/
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www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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CNN, J. G., Naomi Thomas, Dana Vigue and Jacqueline Howard. (n.d.). Oxford’s Covid-19 vaccine appears safe and induces immune response, early results suggest. CNN. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/health/oxford-covid-19-vaccine-results-cansino-pfizer-study/index.html
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Glover, A., Heathcote, J., Krueger, D., & Ríos-Rull, J.-V. (2020). Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27046; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27046
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Holme, P. (2020). Fast and principled simulations of the SIR model on temporal networks. ArXiv:2007.14386 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.14386
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Eric Topol on Twitter: “It’s 100+ years later and we’re a lot smarter, more capable. Why aren’t we beating the crap out of #SARSCoV2? We will. Just a matter of time. https://t.co/eFGieP4cos” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved July 31, 2020, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1287461741236875264
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Leatherby, L. (2020, July 24). How the U.S. Compares With the World’s Worst Coronavirus Hot Spots. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/us/coronavirus-hotspots-countries.html
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West, D. K. & G. (2020, July 8). The Damage We’re Not Attending To. Nautilus. http://nautil.us/issue/87/risk/the-damage-were-not-attending-to
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Chudik, A., Pesaran, M. H., & Rebucci, A. (2020). Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries (Working Paper No. 27039; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27039
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Atkeson, A., Kopecky, K., & Zha, T. (2020). Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model (Working Paper No. 27335; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27335
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Fajgelbaum, P., Khandelwal, A., Kim, W., Mantovani, C., & Schaal, E. (2020). Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network (Working Paper No. 27441; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27441
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Arellano, C., Bai, Y., & Mihalache, G. P. (2020). Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets (Working Paper No. 27275; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27275
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Liu, L., Moon, H. R., & Schorfheide, F. (2020). Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections (Working Paper No. 27248; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27248
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Bursztyn, L., Rao, A., Roth, C. P., & Yanagizawa-Drott, D. H. (2020). Misinformation During a Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27417; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27417
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Golding, N., Russell, T. W., Abbott, S., Hellewell, J., Pearson, C. A. B., Zandvoort, K. van, Jarvis, C. I., Gibbs, H., Liu, Y., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, J. W., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Reconstructing the global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections. MedRxiv, 2020.07.07.20148460. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.07.20148460
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Seow, J., Graham, C., Merrick, B., Acors, S., Steel, K. J. A., Hemmings, O., O’Bryne, A., Kouphou, N., Pickering, S., Galao, R., Betancor, G., Wilson, H. D., Signell, A. W., Winstone, H., Kerridge, C., Temperton, N., Snell, L., Bisnauthsing, K., Moore, A., … Doores, K. (2020). Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection. MedRxiv, 2020.07.09.20148429. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429
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Ackerly, D. C. (2020, July 12). My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes? Vox. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
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www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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CNN, B. Helen R., Steve George, Meg Wagner, Melissa Macaya, Mike Hayes and Veronica Rocha. (n.d.). July 13 coronavirus news. CNN. Retrieved July 25, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-07-13-20-intl/index.html
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www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk
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When virus levels in the population are very low, the chances of a test accurately detecting Covid-19 could be even less than 50 per cent
Take away: Real-world evidence from countries like New Zealand, that already have very low disease incidence, suggests that the concerns for false positives raised in this article are overhyped.
The claim: "When virus levels in the population are very low, the chances of a test accurately detecting Covid-19 could be even less than 50 per cent..."
The evidence: The author explains theoretical scenarios where, when rates of true COVID infections are low, the rate of true positives (test positive and have COVID) may be equal to or less than false positives (test positive but do not have COVID). The background here is that no test is perfect and every screening test used in medicine has some percentage of false negatives and false positives. Several anecdotes are cited in support, however real world data from countries that already have very low disease incidence, suggests that the concerns or false positives raised in this article are unfounded. New Zealand, for example, has tested an average of 2127 people per day from July 1-22, with an average of 1.2 positive cases identified per day—an average % positive of only 0.07%. In order for the authors assumptions to hold, all of the positive tests reported there would have to be false positives—highly unlikely as New Zealand still has symptomatic patients. Therefore, real-world evidence from standard PCR based COVID testing in low incidence populations suggests that the concern for high rates of false positives raised in this article is overhyped.
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osf.io osf.io
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Mogi, R., Kato, G., & Annaka, S. (2020). Socioeconomic inequality and COVID-19 prevalence across municipalities in Catalonia, Spain. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/5jgzy
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Hossain, M. M., Tasnim, S., Sultana, A., McKyer, E. L. J., & Ma, P. (2020). COVID-19 and suicide of an army soldier in India: Perspectives on psychosocial epidemiology of suicidal behavior [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k2jgf
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Dudel, C., Riffe, T., Acosta, E., van Raalte, A. A., Strozza, C., & Myrskylä, M. (2020). Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates using decomposition methods: Contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/j4a3d
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Sehgal, D. (2020). Analysis of Vaccines to tackle COVID-19 with Patent Review [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/q96wj
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bahri, muhamad. (2020). The nexus impacts of the Covid-19: A qualitative perspective [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yj8c9
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Dube, J.-P., Simonov, A., Sacher, S., & Biswas, S. (2020, July 6). News media and distrust in scientific experts. VoxEU.Org. https://voxeu.org/article/news-media-and-distrust-scientific-experts
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Zhong, H., Wang, Y., Shi, Z., Zhang, L., Ren, H., He, W., Zhang, Z., Zhu, A., Zhao, J., Xiao, F., Yang, F., Liang, T., Ye, F., Zhong, B., Ruan, S., Gan, M., Zhu, J., Li, F., Li, F., … Zhao, J. (2020). Characterization of Microbial Co-infections in the Respiratory Tract of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. MedRxiv, 2020.07.02.20143032. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143032
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www.biorxiv.org www.biorxiv.org
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Yurkovetskiy, L., Wang, X., Pascal, K. E., Tomkins-Tinch, C., Nyalile, T., Wang, Y., Baum, A., Diehl, W. E., Dauphin, A., Carbone, C., Veinotte, K., Egri, S. B., Schaffner, S. F., Lemieux, J. E., Munro, J., Rafique, A., Barve, A., Sabeti, P. C., Kyratsous, C. A., … Luban, J. (2020). Structural and Functional Analysis of the D614G SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Variant. BioRxiv, 2020.07.04.187757. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.04.187757
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Herper, M. (2020, July 1). Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech shows positive results. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/coronavirus-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-shows-positive-results-report-says.html
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Mulligan, M. J., Lyke, K. E., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S. P., Neuzil, K., Raabe, V., Bailey, R., Swanson, K. A., Li, P., Koury, K., Kalina, W., Cooper, D., Fonter-Garfias, C., Shi, P.-Y., Tuereci, O., Tompkins, K. R., Walsh, E. E., … Jansen, K. U. (2020). Phase 1/2 Study to Describe the Safety and Immunogenicity of a COVID-19 RNA Vaccine Candidate (BNT162b1) in Adults 18 to 55 Years of Age: Interim Report. MedRxiv, 2020.06.30.20142570. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.30.20142570
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Ribeiro, H., Lima, V. M., & Waldman, E. A. (2020). In the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, do brown lives matter? The Lancet Global Health, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30314-4
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Ackerman, T. (2020, July 4). Evidence growing that Houston’s main coronavirus strain is more contagious than original. HoustonChronicle.Com. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/coronavirus-evidence-growing-houston-strain-mutant-15386157.php
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- COVID-19
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Page, M. L. (n.d.). Why are US coronavirus deaths going down as covid-19 cases soar? New Scientist. Retrieved July 19, 2020, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248813-why-are-us-coronavirus-deaths-going-down-as-covid-19-cases-soar/
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Can COVID-19 Spread Through The Air? (n.d.). Science Friday. Retrieved July 18, 2020, from https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/coronavirus-airborne/
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