- Aug 2023
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Local file Local file
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T9 (text prediction):generative AI::handgun:machine gun
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Some may not realize it yet, but the shift in technology represented by ChatGPT is just another small evolution in the chain of predictive text with the realms of information theory and corpus linguistics.
Claude Shannon's work along with Warren Weaver's introduction in The Mathematical Theory of Communication (1948), shows some of the predictive structure of written communication. This is potentially better underlined for the non-mathematician in John R. Pierce's book An Introduction to Information Theory: Symbols, Signals and Noise (1961) in which discusses how one can do a basic analysis of written English to discover that "e" is the most prolific letter or to predict which letters are more likely to come after other letters. The mathematical structures have interesting consequences like the fact that crossword puzzles are only possible because of the repetitive nature of the English language or that one can use the editor's notation "TK" (usually meaning facts or date To Come) in writing their papers to make it easy to find missing information prior to publication because the statistical existence of the letter combination T followed by K is exceptionally rare and the only appearances of it in long documents are almost assuredly areas which need to be double checked for data or accuracy.
Cell phone manufacturers took advantage of the lower levels of this mathematical predictability to create T9 predictive text in early mobile phone technology. This functionality is still used in current cell phones to help speed up our texting abilities. The difference between then and now is that almost everyone takes the predictive magic for granted.
As anyone with "fat fingers" can attest, your phone doesn't always type out exactly what you mean which can result in autocorrect mistakes (see: DYAC (Damn You AutoCorrect)) of varying levels of frustration or hilarity. This means that when texting, one needs to carefully double check their work before sending their text or social media posts or risk sending their messages to Grand Master Flash instead of Grandma.
The evolution in technology effected by larger amounts of storage, faster processing speeds, and more text to study means that we've gone beyond the level of predicting a single word or two ahead of what you intend to text, but now we're predicting whole sentences and even paragraphs which make sense within a context. ChatGPT means that one can generate whole sections of text which will likely make some sense.
Sadly, as we know from our T9 experience, this massive jump in predictability doesn't mean that ChatGPT or other predictive artificial intelligence tools are "magically" correct! In fact, quite often they're wrong or will predict nonsense, a phenomenon known as AI hallucination. Just as with T9, we need to take even more time and effort to not only spell check the outputs from the machine, but now we may need to check for the appropriateness of style as well as factual substance!
The bigger near-term problem is one of human understanding and human communication. While the machine may appear to magically communicate (often on our behalf if we're publishing it's words under our names), is it relaying actual meaning? Is the other person reading these words understanding what was meant to have been communicated? Do the words create knowledge? Insight?
We need to recall that Claude Shannon specifically carved semantics and meaning out of the picture in the second paragraph of his seminal paper:
Frequently the messages have meaning; that is they refer to or are correlated according to some system with certain physical or conceptual entities. These semantic aspects of communication are irrelevant to the engineering problem.
So far ChatGPT seems to be accomplishing magic by solving a small part of an engineering problem by being able to explore the adjacent possible. It is far from solving the human semantic problem much less the un-adjacent possibilities (potentially representing wisdom or insight), and we need to take care to be aware of that portion of the unsolved problem. Generative AIs are also just choosing weighted probabilities and spitting out something which is prone to seem possible, but they're not optimizing for which of many potential probabilities is the "best" or the "correct" one. For that, we still need our humanity and faculties for decision making.
Shannon, Claude E. A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 1948.
Shannon, Claude E., and Warren Weaver. The Mathematical Theory of Communication. University of Illinois Press, 1949.
Pierce, John Robinson. An Introduction to Information Theory: Symbols, Signals and Noise. Second, Revised. Dover Books on Mathematics. 1961. Reprint, Mineola, N.Y: Dover Publications, Inc., 1980. https://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Information-Theory-Symbols-Mathematics/dp/0486240614.
Shannon, Claude Elwood. “The Bandwagon.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 2, no. 1 (March 1956): 3. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1956.1056774.
We may also need to explore The Bandwagon, an early effect which Shannon noticed and commented upon. Everyone seems to be piling on the AI bandwagon right now...
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- Apr 2023
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machinelearningmastery.com machinelearningmastery.com
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The Delta Method, from the field of nonlinear regression. The Bayesian Method, from Bayesian modeling and statistics. The Mean-Variance Estimation Method, using estimated statistics. The Bootstrap Method, using data resampling and developing an ensemble of models.
Four methods to compute prediction intervals.
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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A novel method for estimating prediction uncertainty using machine learning techniques is presented. Uncertainty is expressed in the form of the two quantiles (constituting the prediction interval) of the underlying distribution of prediction errors. The idea is to partition the input space into different zones or clusters having similar model errors using fuzzy c-means clustering. The prediction interval is constructed for each cluster on the basis of empirical distributions of the errors associated with all instances belonging to the cluster under consideration and propagated from each cluster to the examples according to their membership grades in each cluster. Then a regression model is built for in-sample data using computed prediction limits as targets, and finally, this model is applied to estimate the prediction intervals (limits) for out-of-sample data. The method was tested on artificial and real hydrologic data sets using various machine learning techniques. Preliminary results show that the method is superior to other methods estimating the prediction interval. A new method for evaluating performance for estimating prediction interval is proposed as well.
Prediction intervals using quantiles. Use clustering.
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- Mar 2023
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psychclassics.yorku.ca psychclassics.yorku.ca
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It is safe to predict that in the near future intelligence tests will bring tens of thousands of these high-grade defectives under the surveillance and protection of society. This will ultimately result in curtailing the reproduction of feeble-mindedness and in the elimination of an enormous amount of crime, pauperism, and industrial inefficiency. It is hardly necessary to emphasize that the high-grade cases, of the type now so frequently overlooked, are precisely the ones whose guardianship it is most important for the State to assume.
I think it is interesting how they say it is safe to predict in the future intelligence tests will bring thousands of high-grade defectives. The result they have predicted is interesting because they think the results will eliminate crime, pauperism, and industrial inefficiency. This relates to the history of psychology because they predicted the future. Since we are the future, I don't think there has been a decrease in crime, pauperism which is poverty, and industrial inefficiency. I think we are on the rise of crime and pauperism.
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venkatesh-rao.gitbook.io venkatesh-rao.gitbook.io
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Good protocols tend to form persistent Schelling points in spaces of problems worth solving, around solutions good enough to live with – for a while. And surprisingly often, they manage to induce more complex patterns of voluntary commitment and participation than are achieved by competing systems of centralized coordination.
"inducing more complex patterns" reminds me a little bit of Peter Cotton's Microprediction, does a market form around an idea? Is a protocol one of these ideas?
Appreciate the 'problems worth solving'
Because it's fresh in memory, I like this as illustrated by Chasing Venus
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- Jan 2023
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www.complexityexplorer.org www.complexityexplorer.org
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Prediction can be retrodiction, meaning that we might say that X predicts Y even when X comes after Y.
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- Nov 2022
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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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"Burn Severity in Canada's Mountain National Parks: Patterns, Drivers, and Predictions" Weiwei Wang, Xianli Wang, et al Geophysical Research Letters
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- Oct 2022
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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Intellectual readiness involves a minimumlevel of visual perception such that the child can take in andremember an entire word and the letters that combine to formit. Language readiness involves the ability to speak clearly andto use several sentences in correct order.
Just as predictive means may be used on the level of letters, words, and even whole sentences within information theory at the level of specific languages, does early orality sophistication in children help them to become predictive readers at earlier ages?
How could one go about testing this, particularly in a broad, neurodiverse group?
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- Aug 2022
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Local file Local file
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Doing this, we can confidentlyconclude that by the year 2035 it is more likelythan not that quantum technology will have ad-vanced sufficiently to be able to break RSA2048efficiently. This conclusion is shared by well es-tablished researchers (see, e.g.[2, 3])
Here, author uses other researcher's conclusions and states that by the year 2035 it is a fact that quantum technology will have advance sufficiently to be able to break RSA2048 efficiently.
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sample, I. (2022, January 25). Long Covid: Doctors find ‘antibody signature’ for patients most at risk. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/25/doctors-find-antibody-signature-long-covid
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 23). Risk of hospital stay 40% lower with Omicron than Delta, UK data suggests https://t.co/VupN8hY4qq [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1473916654421643266
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- Mar 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦. (2021, December 7). This is what it feels like again https://xkcd.com/2278/ https://t.co/q6XyUTYiPe [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468184343399084034
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Eric Topol. (2022, February 28). A multimodal #AI study of ~54 million blood cells from Covid patients @YaleMedicine for predicting mortality risk highlights protective T cell role (not TH17), poor outcomes of granulocytes, monocytes, and has 83% accuracy https://nature.com/articles/s41587-021-01186-x @NatureBiotech @KrishnaswamyLab https://t.co/V32Kq0Q5ez [Tweet]. @EricTopol. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1498373229097799680
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twitter.com twitter.com
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wsbgnl. (2022, January 6). Daily COVID-19 hospitalization in the US: observed and forecasted https://covid19forecasthub.org https://t.co/f1rqUhz1mE [Tweet]. @wsbgnl. https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1479162051306033153
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Bill Hanage. (2022, January 7). So a brief thread on the state of the pandemic in the Boston area. It is quite plausible that about 10% of the population is currently infected, more in some age groups than others. A lot of omicron. What next? 1/n https://t.co/aXgc5GYk0V [Tweet]. @BillHanage. https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1479574053807697920
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www.mercurynews.com www.mercurynews.com
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Living with COVID-19: How the virus could turn into the common cold, or something far worse. (2022, January 9). The Mercury News. https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/09/living-with-covid-19-how-the-virus-could-turn-into-the-common-cold-or-something-far-worse
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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
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Academics: Viral Evolution Scenarios, 10 February 2022. (n.d.). GOV.UK. Retrieved February 14, 2022, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/academics-viral-evolution-scenarios-10-february-2022
Tags
- prediction
- viral evolution
- waning immunity
- surveillance
- is:report
- severity
- protection
- transmissibility
- therapeutic
- COVID-19
- scenario
- vaccine efficacy
- immunity
- immune escape
- heterogeneity
- lang:en
- antiviral drug resistance
- vaccination
- UK
- variant
- vaccine
- testing
- antigenic escape
- infection
Annotators
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Adele Groyer. (2022, January 8). Friday report is now out. Https://covidactuaries.org/2022/01/07/the-friday-report-issue-58/ I am struck that perception of a “mild” Covid situation is relative. In SA natural deaths were >30% higher than predicted in Dec. The last time weekly death rates in E&W were more than 30% above 2015-19 levels was in Jan 2021. Https://t.co/S9fkn2WFVk [Tweet]. @AdeleGroyer. https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1479760460589191170
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Barnes, O., & Alabi, L. O. (2022, January 27). UK coronavirus cases tick up 10%, symptom tracker app shows. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f9833324-7986-48c4-a96c-153049ed9b5a
Tags
- prediction
- Denmark
- India
- staff shortage
- parents
- loosening restrictions
- research
- hospitalization
- transmissibility
- subvariant
- COVID-19
- effectiveness
- England
- daily cases
- plan B
- school
- children
- lang:en
- symptom tracker app
- data
- UK
- variant
- vaccine
- Omicron
- booster
- NHS
- infection rate
- mask wearing
- vaccine passport
- is:news
Annotators
URL
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- Jan 2022
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www.deseret.com www.deseret.com
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Scribner, H. (2022, January 29). A new COVID-19 variant surge ‘will happen again,’ experts say. Deseret News. https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2022/1/29/22904290/new-covid-19-variant-surge-next-major-coronavirus-mutation
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Zimmerman, M. I., Porter, J. R., Ward, M. D., Singh, S., Vithani, N., Meller, A., Mallimadugula, U. L., Kuhn, C. E., Borowsky, J. H., Wiewiora, R. P., Hurley, M. F. D., Harbison, A. M., Fogarty, C. A., Coffland, J. E., Fadda, E., Voelz, V. A., Chodera, J. D., & Bowman, G. R. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 simulations go exascale to predict dramatic spike opening and cryptic pockets across the proteome. Nature Chemistry, 13(7), 651–659. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41557-021-00707-0
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez. (2022, January 14). The rise of Omicron Translated from @numeroteca https://t.co/S7HYcEnuQn [Tweet]. @jljcolorado. https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1481799620502061056
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Tom Peacock. (2022, January 19). As its been getting increasing attention recently, I’m going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -What is BA.2? -What is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it? [Tweet]. @PeacockFlu. https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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Yong, E. (2021, December 16). America Is Not Ready for Omicron. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/america-omicron-variant-surge-booster/621027/
Tags
- prediction
- policy
- severity
- hospitalization
- protection
- rapid testing
- societal level
- transmissibility
- mortality
- COVID-19
- individualism
- immunity
- USA
- previous infection
- society
- lang:en
- variant
- vaccine
- strategy
- Omicron
- booster
- South Africa
- essential worker
- ventilation
- testing
- mask wearing
- healthcare
- hospital
- is:news
Annotators
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www.msn.com www.msn.com
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Covid’s evolution: ‘With each passing wave, we’ve seen greater transmissibility.’ (n.d.). MSN. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-s-evolution-with-each-passing-wave-we-ve-seen-greater-transmissibility/vi-AARYwCn
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Devlin, H., Davis, N., & correspondents, N. D. S. (2022, January 14). Expect another Omicron wave in early summer, Sage says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/expect-another-covid-omicron-wave-in-early-summer-sage-says
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Blackall, M. (2021, May 8). Outgoing vaccine chief claims Covid will not be circulating in UK by August. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/08/clive-dix-claims-covid-not-in-uk-by-august-vaccine
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Keeling, M. J., Brooks-Pollock, E., Challen, R. J., Danon, L., Dyson, L., Gog, J. R., Guzman-Rincon, L., Hill, E. M., Pellis, L. M., Read, J. M., & Tildesley, M. (2021). Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England. (p. 2021.12.30.21268307). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307
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- Dec 2021
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www.washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com
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Omicron and children: Pediatric hospitals in parts of U.S. filling fast. (n.d.). Washington Post. Retrieved December 28, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/24/omicron-children-hospitalizations-us/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Acme Birch Beer. (2021, December 13). A long thread on @NYTimes/@washingtonpost/@TheAtlantic’s favorite prediction-making expert, Monica Gandhi. Feb 22, 2021: “I need to say variants, shmariants, okay? I’m sorry, I don’t know what kind of trouble that’s going to get me in...” https://t.co/CwQL6QBG78 [Tweet]. @KindAndUnblind. https://twitter.com/KindAndUnblind/status/1470389931679883268
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Eric Feigl-Ding. (2021, December 2). A rise in possible #Omicron in England—Tripling (0.1 to 0.3) of S-Gene dropout PCR signal, which is a proxy for Omicron (before 🧬 sequencing confirms). @_nickdavies estimates this represents around ~60 cases in 🏴. Still early—But it displacing #DeltaVariant is not good sign. 🧵 https://t.co/4aIiqiVsqH [Tweet]. @DrEricDing. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1466234026843205637
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- Nov 2021
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Campbell, D., & editor, D. C. H. policy. (2021, November 3). Covid jabs to be compulsory for NHS staff in England from April. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/03/covid-jabs-to-be-compulsory-for-nhs-staff-in-england-from-april
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Benjamin Veness. (2021, November 2). Singapore’s 🇸🇬 Senior Minister of State for Health, Dr Janil Puthucheary, told Parliament on 1 November: “I hope my explanation has helped members understand why although we say we are living with COVID-19, we cannot just open up, and risk having the number of cases shoot up.” [Tweet]. @venessb. https://twitter.com/venessb/status/1455396047765733376
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- Oct 2021
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Illari, L., Restrepo, N. J., Leahy, R., Velasquez, N., Lupu, Y., & Johnson, N. F. (2021). Losing the battle over best-science guidance early in a crisis: Covid-19 and beyond. ArXiv:2110.09634 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2110.09634
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Henderson, R. K., & Schnall, S. (2021). Social Threat Indirectly Increases Moral Condemnation via Thwarting Fundamental Social Needs [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rjzys
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unherd.com unherd.com
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The men who failed Britain—UnHerd. (n.d.). Retrieved October 14, 2021, from https://unherd.com/2021/10/the-men-who-failed-britain/
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Telenti, A., Arvin, A., Corey, L., Corti, D., Diamond, M. S., García-Sastre, A., Garry, R. F., Holmes, E. C., Pang, P., & Virgin, H. W. (2021). After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19. Nature, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03792-w
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- Sep 2021
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royalsocietypublishing.org royalsocietypublishing.org
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Roozenbeek, J., Schneider, C. R., Dryhurst, S., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L. J., Recchia, G., van der Bles, A. M., & van der Linden, S. (n.d.). Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 around the world. Royal Society Open Science, 7(10), 201199. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201199
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Hippisley-Cox, J., Coupland, C. A., Mehta, N., Keogh, R. H., Diaz-Ordaz, K., Khunti, K., Lyons, R. A., Kee, F., Sheikh, A., Rahman, S., Valabhji, J., Harrison, E. M., Sellen, P., Haq, N., Semple, M. G., Johnson, P. W. M., Hayward, A., & Nguyen-Van-Tam, J. S. (2021). Risk prediction of covid-19 related death and hospital admission in adults after covid-19 vaccination: National prospective cohort study. BMJ, 374, n2244. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2244
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blogs.lse.ac.uk blogs.lse.ac.uk
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Impact of Social Sciences. “How Models Change the World – and What We Should Do about It,” August 20, 2021. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2021/08/20/how-models-change-the-world-and-what-we-should-do-about-it/.
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J. L., Ullrich, A., Abbott, S., Barbarossa, M. V., Bertsimas, D., Bhatia, S., Bodych, M., Bosse, N. I., Burgard, J. P., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Fuhrmann, J., Funk, S., Gogolewski, K., Gu, Q., … Xu, F. T. (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave. Nature Communications, 12(1), 5173. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
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- Aug 2021
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www.microcovid.org www.microcovid.org
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MicroCOVID Project. (n.d.). Retrieved August 11, 2021, from https://www.microcovid.org
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Mallapaty, S. (2021). A blood marker predicts who gets ‘breakthrough’ COVID. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02096-3
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- Jul 2021
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Has England reached a peak in Covid infections? | Graham Medley | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/26/when-england-peak-covid-infections-trajectory-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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‘Trust the science’ is the mantra of the Covid crisis – but what about human fallibility? | Margaret Simons | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved July 27, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/24/trust-the-science-is-the-mantra-of-the-covid-crisis-but-what-about-human-fallibility?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘I just had cause to revisit the Friston modelling paper from Sept: Https://t.co/QOTC8fXV0n 1/n’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 26 February 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1336277391233208320
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Baker, N., & Ball, P. (2021). Coronapod: Does England’s COVID strategy risk breeding deadly variants? Nature, d41586-021-01977–x. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01977-x
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Herrera-Diestra, J. L., Tildesley, M., Shea, K., & Ferrari, M. (2021). Network structure and disease risk for an endemic infectious disease. ArXiv:2107.06186 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2107.06186
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Global experts urge Boris Johnson to delay ‘dangerous’ Covid reopening | Coronavirus | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved July 9, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening
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www.politico.com www.politico.com
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Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates—POLITICO. (n.d.). Retrieved July 8, 2021, from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/08/delta-coronavirus-variant-widespread-498787?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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- Jun 2021
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Castro, M. C., Gurzenda, S., Turra, C. M., Kim, S., Andrasfay, T., & Goldman, N. (2021). Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Gronfeldt, B., Cichocka, A., Cislak, A., Sternisko, A., & Irem. (2021). A Small Price to Pay: National Narcissism Predicts Readiness to Sacrifice In-group Members to Defend the In-group’s Image [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/7fmrx
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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The Texas Mask-Mandate Mystery—The Atlantic. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/texas-mask-mandate-no-effect/618942/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Laure Wynants. (2021, May 22). Reading covid-19 prediction studies. It never gets old. Oh wait... It does. Https://t.co/aFGi5HfmMn [Tweet]. @laure_wynants. https://twitter.com/laure_wynants/status/1396102628635971592
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Varol, T., Schneider, F., Mesters, I., Ruiter, R. A. C., Kok, G., & ten Hoor, G. A. (2021). Facilitating Informed Decision Making: Determinants of University Students’ COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/u46bm
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www.mindcoolness.com www.mindcoolness.com
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Your brain is a prediction machine.
See also Agrawal, A., Gans, J., & Goldfarb, A. (2018). Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence. Harvard Business Review Press.
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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V Shah, A. S., Gribben, C., Bishop, J., Hanlon, P., Caldwell, D., Wood, R., Reid, M., McMenamin, J., Goldberg, D., Stockton, D., Hutchinson, S., Robertson, C., McKeigue, P. M., Colhoun, H. M., & McAllister, D. A. (2021). Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: An observational study in healthcare workers and their households [Preprint]. Public and Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.21253275
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Madhu Pai, MD, PhD on Twitter: “#COVID19 surge in Uganda looks ominous Vaccine coverage = 1.5% with 1 dose https://t.co/TRAjEVC59U” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 7, 2021, from https://twitter.com/paimadhu/status/1401010082884853768
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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UK tightens borders and travel rules as variants spark new alarm | Coronavirus | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved June 5, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/concern-over-delta-covid-variant-tightens-borders-of-uk
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- May 2021
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www.eventbrite.com www.eventbrite.com
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Data Collection and Integration to Enhance Public Health Registration, Thu, Jun 10, 2021 at 1:00 PM | Eventbrite. (n.d.). Retrieved May 28, 2021, from https://www.eventbrite.com/e/data-collection-and-integration-to-enhance-public-health-registration-156146370999
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Wang, C. J. (2021). Contact-tracing app curbed the spread of COVID in England and Wales. Nature, d41586-021-01354–01358. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01354-8
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Mizutaka, S., Mori, K., & Hasegawa, T. (2021). Synergistic epidemic spreading in correlated networks. ArXiv:2105.08992 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08992
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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Gu, T., Wang, L., Xie, N., Meng, X., Li, Z., Postlethwaite, A. E., Aleya, L., Howard, S., Gu, W., & Wang, Y. (2021). Towards a country-based prediction model of COVID-19 infections and deaths between disease apex and end: -Evidence from countries with contained numbers of COVID-19. Frontiers in Medicine, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.585115
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Prof. Christina Pagel on Twitter: “SHORT THREAD: I was on Sky News earlier where I explained why I thought test 4 (new variant test) for the next stage of the roadmap had not been met, because of B.1.617.2 (the so called ‘Indian’ variant of concern). 1/5 https://t.co/0O3dL2saOR” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved May 17, 2021, from https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1392927819504701441
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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the Guardian. “How Good Are We at Predicting the Pandemic? | David Spiegelhalter & Anthony Masters,” May 9, 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/may/09/how-good-are-we-at-predicting-pandemic.
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Maxmen, A. (2021). Will COVID force public health to confront America’s epic inequality?. Nature, 592(7856), 674-680.
Tags
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Annotators
URL
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Li, S., Sim, S.-C., Lee, L., Pollack, H. J., Wyatt, L. C., Trinh-Shevrin, C., Pong, P., & Kwon, S. C. (2017). Hepatitis B Screening and Vaccination Behaviors among a Community-based Sample of Chinese and Korean Americans in New York City. American Journal of Health Behavior, 41(2), 204–214. https://doi.org/10.5993/AJHB.41.2.12
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Leblanc-Sirois, Y., Gagnon, M.-È., & Blanchette, I. (2020). Emotions, reasoning, and mental health as predictors of behavior during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2p39h
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Anthony Costello on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 1 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1323747414923202562
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Fisman, D., Greer, A. L., & Tuite, A. (2020). Derivation and Validation of Clinical Prediction Rule for COVID-19 Mortality in Ontario, Canada. MedRxiv, 2020.06.21.20136929. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20136929
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Fluharty, M., Paul, E., & Fancourt, D. (2020). Predictors and patterns of gambling behaviour across the COVID-19 lockdown: Findings from a UK cohort study. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8qthw
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twitter.com twitter.comTwitter1
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “this is utterly bizarre: How would one conceptually even begin to determine a number by which the model overestimated unmitigated deaths. What is the comparison unmitigated ‘prediction’ to what actually happened supposed to mean?” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved May 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384070393514790918
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- Apr 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Eric Topol on Twitter: “The variants of concern/interest fall into a spectrum of immune evasiveness, w/ B.1.351 being most; B.1.1.7, B.1.429 least. This property pertains to potential for reinfection & some reduction in vaccine efficacy My prelim estimates based on publications/preprints, subject to Δ https://t.co/fQZwBCUEGS” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1380203664317456385
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, January 1). RT @bhrenton: In 91 days, we are 99.71% of the way to President Biden’s goal of 200 million shots in 100 days. We can expect to formally me… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1385198744401072136
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 it could be meaningful only vis a vis certain qualitative constraints: E.g., ‘look, model predicts fewer deaths for unmitigated than observed even with lockdown’ => model underpredicts.... But that’s very much not the scenario here [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384146492609372177
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 so, given that no one can know the ‘unmitigated number’ what they seem to be calculating is in difference deaths given lockdown and model prediction without lockdown and calling that the ‘overestimate’—Which seems truly bizarre [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384147188180082692
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Indian expansion of Covid vaccine drive may further strain supplies | India | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved April 19, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/19/indian-expansion-of-covid-vaccine-drive-may-further-strain-supplies
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Local file Local file
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Taquet, M. (2021, April 15). COVID-19 and cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/H2MT7
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) on Twitter: “Let’s talk about the background risk of CVST (cerebral venous sinus thrombosis) versus in those who got J&J vaccine. We are going to focus in on women ages 20-50. We are going to compare the same time period and the same disease (CVST). DEEP DIVE🧵 KEY NUMBERS!” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 15, 2021, from https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1382536833863651330
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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UCL team’s claim that herd immunity set to be achieved in UK disputed | Coronavirus | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved April 12, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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UK’s Covid vaccine programme on track despite AstraZeneca problems | Vaccines and immunisation | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved April 12, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/uks-covid-vaccine-programme-on-track-despite-astrazeneca-problems
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link.springer.com link.springer.com
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Bleuler defined schizophrenia with his four ‘A’s’, referring to the blunted Affect (diminished emotional response to stimuli); loosening of Associations (by which he meant a disordered pattern of thought, inferring a cognitive deficit), Ambivalence (an apparent inability to make decisions, again suggesting a deficit of the integration and processing of incident and retrieved information) and Autism (a loss of awareness of external events, and a preoccupation with the self and one’s own thoughts)
I stumbled upon this accidentally. I was going to add to my prediction that schizophrenia might be related to autism, but now that I've found this I need to publish my draft.
Edit: Here was the prediction I wrote. Copied unmodified, ensuring transparency.
March 28, 6:15pm Prediction: Some cases of schizophrenia are being misdiagnosed as autism. I recently took a Coursera.org course on schizophrenia. The negative symptoms look similar to some autism symptoms.
Before I look it up, there are a few other predictions I should make. Do I think schizophrenia and autism will be linked? If there’s cross-diagnosis, will this link be artificial or real? Last time I looked, people with aspergers had (more or less) normal sleep EEGs. In contrast, schizophrenia is associated with disrupted sleep spindles. I already know that schizophrenia and bipolar are genetically linked, but I don’t know what the bipolar sleep EEG looks like. That is to say, I don’t know if the lack of sleep abnormality in autism is evidence against a link to schizophrenia. All in all, I predict that there will be a real link (for example, genetic), but I have a low confidence in this prediction. The reason is that I expect there is little EEG sleep changes in bipolar, implying that there is a supra-mechanism causing all these effects; somewhat like metabolic syndrome, the same cause may manifest in different ways.
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www.bbrfoundation.org www.bbrfoundation.org
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Using this data, a large international team was able to pinpoint 114 specific loci – locations in the human genome – that contribute to risk of both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and four genome regions that contribute to differences in the biology of the two disorders.
This is exactly what I expected. In fact, I would have been extremely surprised if this weren't the case. I just google "schizophrenia bipolar genes" expecting this result.
I had the thought a few minutes ago, and google it right away. This means that I wasn't able to write it down as a prediction. Nonetheless, I think this points in favor of my prediction abilities. My confidence was inordinately high (i.e. on the order of 90%) even before collecting any evidence. Compare that to other high confidence beliefs (e.g. CFS is caused partly by blood volume), for which I have confidence on the order of 95%, but I have good evidence for that belief. Thus, this instance provides data that my confidence meter is reliable. I'll continue to make an effort to write down predictions ahead of time (to eliminate publication bias).
There are several reasons I suspected this would be the case. Firstly, personal subjective experience; that's what gave me the first inkling. Secondly, the connection of mania with long periods of sleeplessness. If the sleep deprivation causes the mania, then bipolar may be a sleep disorder. This is backed up by the sleep deprivation therapy for depression. Additionally, the connection of depression to sleep disturbance implies that sleep may also be causal in low mood. Furthermore, given that schizophrenia is associated with disrupted sleep spindles, it follows that the two sleep disorders, namely schizophrenia and bipolar, may be closely related genetically (via sleep regulating genes). Moreover, I knew that schizophrenia and bipolar were two of the most heritable psychological conditions; given that both are highly genetic and both involve sleep, it follows that they would likely be closely linked. Finally, I know mania can be associated with delusions, so there are several symptom crossovers. All in all, it is highly surprising that I have not seen this discussed before. Neither documentaries on schizophrenia nor documentaries on manic depression/bipolar have mentioned a link. Nor have studies I've read (admittedly few on this particular topic) mentioned anything of the sort. I shall have to look through the literature to see if this idea has been around for long.
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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positive
This supports my low confidence prediction.
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- Mar 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Nick Barrowman. (2021, March 26). Throughout the pandemic, a widespread inability to reason counterfactually has been on display. For example, some people apparently think lockdowns don’t work. They seem unable to imagine the situation had there not been a lockdown. Lockdowns are costly, but they work! [Tweet]. @nbarrowman. https://twitter.com/nbarrowman/status/1375240312264740870
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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Spagnoli, Paola, Carmela Buono, Liliya Scafuri Kovalchuk, Gennaro Cordasco, and Anna Esposito. ‘Perfectionism and Burnout During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Two-Wave Cross-Lagged Study’. Frontiers in Psychology 11 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.631994.
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