- Oct 2020
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50 percent effective
Take away: Cloth face masks filter approximately 50% of bacteriophage five times smaller than one SARS-CoV-2 virus. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that masks, including cloth masks, are 50% effective.
The claim: Masks are assumed to be 50% effective.
The evidence: Face masks, including home made face masks, were shown to reduce aerosol exposure (1). Masks made from various materials were shown to filter 50-68% of Bacteriophage CS2 which is 20 nm (2). When NaCl aerosols were used instead of a bacteriophage, penetration by NaCl occurred 9-98% of the time depending on the size of the particles (3). Two well written reviews detail the efficacy of facemasks (4, 5). SARS-CoV-2 virus is ~100 nm in size (6).
Sources: 1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/
2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108646/
3 https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744
4 https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1
5 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7497125/#ref23
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blogs.bmj.com blogs.bmj.com
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Abraar Karan: Politics and public health in America—taking a stand for what is right. (2020, October 9). The BMJ. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/10/09/abraar-karan-politics-and-public-health-in-america-taking-a-stand-for-what-is-right/
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www.acpjournals.org www.acpjournals.org
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In comparison, the ratio is approximately 2.5 times greater than the estimated IFR for seasonal influenza
Take away:
If correct numerators and denominators are used, COVID-19 is at least 10 times as deadly as seasonal influenza.
The claim:
The Infection Fatality Ratio for COVID-19 is “approximately 2.5 times higher than the estimated IFR for seasonal influenza.”
The evidence:
Blackburn et al. report an infection fatality ratio among community-living adults of 0.26% (1). If institutionalized adults had been included the ratio would be higher, likely approximating the 0.6% mortality rate among exposed individuals readily calculated by combining official death tolls, the known 30% undercount (2), and a definitive CDC study that found 10 times as many people have been exposed to the novel coronavirus than are reported as cases (3). Among the elderly, Blackburn et al. calculate COVID-19 is 2.5 times deadlier than seasonal flu. This is clearly an underestimate:
1) Blackburn et al. use CDC estimates of case-fatality rates calculated on the basis of all Americans, including the institutionalized, not limited to much healthier community-dwellers.
2) The seasonal influenza case fatality rates reported by the CDC, including the often cited 0.1% overall, are for symptomatic cases. Their denominators are estimated by using the reported number of influenza hospitalizations to guess the burden of clinical illness (4). But antibody studies show that 65%-85% of people infected with influenza never develop symptoms (5). The 0.6% mortality rate calculated here for SARS-CoV-2-exposed individuals is 6 times higher than the 0.1% usually cited for seasonal influenza. Given the overestimation of commonly accepted influenza mortality rates due to failure to take asymptomatic infections into account, SARS-CoV-2 can be seen to be not 2.5 times, or even 6 times, but at least 10 times as lethal as seasonal flu.
Sources:
1 http://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352
2 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
3 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834
4 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Kavanagh, M. M. (2020). US elections and a foreign policy for pandemics. The Lancet Public Health, 5(10), e517–e518. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30211-5
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www.psychologs.com www.psychologs.com
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Covid-19: Is Behavioural Science The Key To Handle The Pandemic? (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2020, from https://www.psychologs.com/article/covid-19-is-behavioral-science-the-key-to-handle-the-pandemic
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www.rt.com www.rt.com
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A scientific review of the science behind lockdown concludes the policy was a MISTAKE & will have caused MORE deaths from Covid-19
Take Away: The new scientific paper confirms earlier modeling work and should not be interpreted as a detailed prediction for future deaths due to the ongoing pandemic.
The Claim: "A scientific review of the science behind lockdown concludes the policy was a MISTAKE & will have caused MORE deaths from Covid-19"
The Evidence: The scientific process involves replication and confirmation of experiments and studies. A new paper replicates and expands on an early modeling study of the COVID-19 pandemic in England (1). Their findings support the earlier results. However, there are limitations to the replication paper, which does not accurately reflect the current state of the pandemic response and does not make detailed predictions for a second wave of infections and deaths.
A recent expert response to the paper further explains (2):
"It needs to be stressed that all the simulations assume that interventions are only in place for 3 months (18th April – 18th July) and then completely relaxed. This gives rise to a strange set of scenarios where a second wave is allowed to progress in an uncontrolled manner."
“It is this that leads to the counter-intuitive headline finding “that school closures would result in more overall covid-19 deaths than no school closures” – actually what the authors find is that a short period of intense lock-down (including the closure of schools) leads to a large second wave if it is allowed to run with no controls. To be fair the authors do highlight this in the paper, but it is not in the reported press release." -Prof Matt Keeling, Professor of Populations and Disease, University of Warwick
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.
Take away: This model excludes the possibility of vaccination. As many vaccines are in stage three clinical trials, the conclusion that more people will die from closing schools, etc. will most likely not be realized.
The claim: School closures and isolation of younger people will increase total number of deaths from second and subsequent waves of COVID-19 when restrictions are lifted.
The evidence: This model predicts more deaths from the combination of place closures such as schools, case isolations, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s than for the combination of case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing for over 70s. The majority of the deaths for the combination of place closures, case isolations, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s occur once the restrictions are lifted. This model excludes the possibility of a vaccine reducing the size of the second wave.
At least ten companies have a COVID-19 vaccine in the final stage (Phase III) of clinical trials (1). Therefore a model which excludes vaccination will most likely not be accurate to reality once a vaccine is widely administered.
Source:
1 https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Bozorgmehr, K. (2020). Power of and power over COVID-19 response guidelines. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32081-X
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13707/.
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13683/.
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Kaplan, Edward H, Dennis Wang, Mike Wang, Amyn A Malik, Alessandro Zulli, and Jordan H Peccia. ‘Aligning SARS-CoV-2 Indicators via an Epidemic Model: Application to Hospital Admissions and RNA Detection in Sewage Sludge’. Preprint. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS), 29 June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141739.
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- Sep 2020
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Petrie-Flom Center
COVID-19 and the Politics of Reproductive Health: Global Perspectives. (2020, August 18). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kex9O_cwMwo
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www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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Covid: Cardiff and Swansea go into local lockdown—BBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved September 29, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54310400
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Learning lessons before launching an inquiry—IfG LIVE 2020 Labour Fringe Programme—YouTube. (n.d.). Retrieved September 29, 2020, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCZl-naQ6UM
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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There are two possible approaches to build widespread SARS-CoV-2 immunity: (1) a mass vaccination campaign, which requires the development of an effective and safe vaccine, or (2) natural immunization of global populations with the virus over time. However, the consequences of the latter are serious and far-reaching—a large fraction of the human population would need to become infected with the virus, and millions would succumb to it.
Take away: Mass infection without vaccination to achieve herd immunity will result in millions of deaths based on the observed death rate and may not result in herd immunity due to virus mutation. Historically, vaccination results in less deaths than the disease.
The claim: Herd immunity from widespread disease instead of vaccination will lead to many people dying.
The evidence: Approximately 50-67% of a given population is estimated to need to be infected for herd immunity to COVID-19 to exist which will result in millions of deaths. This is supported by additional publications (1, 2). This number assumes that the virus will not mutate to the point where re-infection is possible. If mutation occurs, COVID could become established in the general population similar to influenza or the common cold (3). A third publication estimates a needed infected percentage of 29-74% (4). These publications support the statement that millions will die if herd immunity is achieved via infection without vaccination. Historically, vaccination results in fewer deaths/disease on a population level than the disease for which the vaccine is designed to prevent (5-7).
Sources:
1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314002/
2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7262166/pdf/JMV-9999-na.pdf
3 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164482/
5 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28708957/
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www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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Take away: People are infectious for only part of the time they test positive. The tests for COVID-19 were granted emergency status by the FDA so some debate concerning the most ideal number of cycles is to be expected. It is worth noting that the FDA has the disclaimer "Negative results do not preclude 2019-nCoV infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or other patient management decisions. Negative results must be combined with clinical observations, patient history, and epidemiological information (2)."
The claim: Up to 90 percent of people diagnosed with coronavirus may not be carrying enough of it to infect anyone else
The evidence: Per Walsh et al. (1), SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) is most likely infectious if the number of PCR cycles is <24 and the symptom onset to test is <8 days. RT-PCR detects the RNA, not the infectious virus. Therefore, setting the cycle threshold at 37-40 cycles will most likely result in detecting some samples with virus which is not infectious. As the PCR tests were granted emergency use by the FDA (samples include 2-9), it is not surprising that some debate exists currently about where the cycle threshold should be. Thresholds need to be set and validated for dozens of PCR tests currently in use. If identifying only infectious individuals is the goal, a lower cycle number may be justified. If detection of as many cases as possible to get closer to the most accurate death rate is the goal, setting the cycle threshold at 37-40 makes sense. A lower threshold will result in fewer COVID-19 positive samples being identified. It is worth noting that the emergency use approval granted by the FDA includes the disclaimer that a negative test does not guarantee that a person is not infected with COVID-19. RNA degrades easily. If samples are not kept cold or properly processed, the virus can degrade and result in a false negative result.
Source: 1 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa638/5842165
2 https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download
3 https://www.fda.gov/media/138150/download
4 https://www.fda.gov/media/137120/download
5 https://www.fda.gov/media/136231/download
6 https://www.fda.gov/media/136472/download
7 https://www.fda.gov/media/139279/download
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Casoria, F., Galeotti, F., & Villeval, M. C. (2020). Perceived Social Norm and Behavior Quickly Adjusted to Legal Changes During the COVID-19 Pandemic (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3681204). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3681204
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lewandowsky, Stephan, Simon Dennis, Amy Perfors, Yoshihisa Kashima, Joshua White, Paul Michael Garrett, Daniel R. Little, and Muhsin Yesilada. ‘Public Acceptance of Privacy-Encroaching Policies to Address the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom’. Preprint. PsyArXiv, 4 September 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/njwmp.
Tags
- co-location tracking
- opt-out clause
- infected
- COVID-19
- time limited
- lang:en
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- UK
- tracking technology
- is:preprint
- antibodies
- public acceptance
- willingness
- public
- social distancing
- widespread acceptance
- immunity passport
- United Kingdom
- privacy-encroaching policy
- health agencies
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Benvenisti, E. (2020). The WHO – Destined to Fail?: Political Cooperation and the COVID-19 Pandemic (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3638948). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3638948
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www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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u/nick_chater (2020) Behavioural Policy Challenge: when does compulsion help? reddit. Retrieved from: https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciAsk/comments/hzci8g/behavioural_policy_challenge_when_does_compulsion/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Van Bavel, J. J., & Myer, A. (2020). National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ydt95
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- Aug 2020
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Zheng, Q., Jones, F. K., Leavitt, S. V., Ung, L., Labrique, A. B., Peters, D. H., Lee, E. C., & Azman, A. S. (2020). HIT-COVID, a global database tracking public health interventions to COVID-19. Scientific Data, 7(1), 286. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00610-2
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Lozano, R., Fullman, N., Mumford, J. E., Knight, M., Barthelemy, C. M., Abbafati, C., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdollahi, M., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Abosetugn, A. E., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R. M., Haimed, A. K. A., Abushouk, A. I., Adabi, M., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., … Murray, C. J. L. (2020). Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30750-9
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Lancet, T. (2020). Research and higher education in the time of COVID-19. The Lancet, 396(10251), 583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31818-3
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Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2020). Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods (Working Paper No. 27020; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27020
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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The Trump administration must stop sidelining the CDC. (2020). Nature, 583(7818), 660–660. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02231-6
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osf.io osf.io
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Beytía, P., & Infante, C. C. (2020). Digital Pathways, Pandemic Trajectories. Using Google Trends to Track Social Responses to COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yndb7
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Andy Slavitt @ 🏡 on Twitter: “COVID UPDATE July 13: There are successful examples of taking on COVID-19. And there is one story like no others. New York. 1/” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved July 17, 2020, from https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1282838738121502720
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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Marcus, J. (2020, August 15). The Fun Police Should Stand Down. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/containing-the-pandemic-isnt-a-job-for-cops/615298/
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Holtz, D., Zhao, M., Benzell, S. G., Cao, C. Y., Rahimian, M. A., Yang, J., Allen, J., Collis, A., Moehring, A., Sowrirajan, T., Ghosh, D., Zhang, Y., Dhillon, P. S., Nicolaides, C., Eckles, D., & Aral, S. (2020). Interdependence and the cost of uncoordinated responses to COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19837–19843. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009522117
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Rodela, T. T., Tasnim, S., Mazumder, H., Faizah, F., Sultana, A., & Hossain, M. M. (2020). Economic Impacts of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Developing Countries [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wygpk
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Stay-At-Home Orders, Social Distancing and Trust. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13234/
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csbs.research.illinois.edu csbs.research.illinois.edu
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jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
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Mishra, V., & Dexter, J. P. (2020). Comparison of Readability of Official Public Health Information About COVID-19 on Websites of International Agencies and the Governments of 15 Countries. JAMA Network Open, 3(8), e2018033–e2018033. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.18033
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Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2020). Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27059; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27059
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Ziedan, E., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020). Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization (Working Paper No. 27621; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27621
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Ding, W., Levine, R., Lin, C., & Xie, W. (2020). Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19 (Working Paper No. 27393; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27393
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Dave, D. M., Friedson, A. I., Matsuzawa, K., McNichols, D., & Sabia, J. J. (2020). Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment (Working Paper No. 27322; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27322
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www.exeter.ac.uk www.exeter.ac.uk
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University of Exeter. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 August 2020, from https://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/homepage/title_808437_en.html
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www.weforum.org www.weforum.org
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5 myths about face masks under the microscope. (n.d.). World Economic Forum. Retrieved 12 August 2020, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/08/coronavirus-face-masks-myths/
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www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
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Gettys, T. (n.d.). ‘Listening to experts is elitist’: Idaho Republicans move to strip power from public health officials. Retrieved 12 August 2020, from https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/listening-to-experts-is-elitist-idaho-republicans-move-to-strip-power-from-public-health-officials/
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- Idaho
- COVID-19
- coronavirus
- public policy
- lang:en
- is:article
- expert opinion
- USA
- health policy
- health care access
- public health
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Aum, S., Lee, S. Y. (Tim), & Shin, Y. (2020). Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health? (Working Paper No. 27100; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27100
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Berger, D. W., Herkenhoff, K. F., & Mongey, S. (2020). An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine (Working Paper No. 26901; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26901
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2020). The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining (Working Paper No. 27104; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27104
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Stock, James H. ‘Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus’. Working Paper. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2020. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26902.
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Malani, A., Soman, S., Asher, S., Novosad, P., Imbert, C., Tandel, V., Agarwal, A., Alomar, A., Sarker, A., Shah, D., Shen, D., Gruber, J., Sachdeva, S., Kaiser, D., & Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2020). Adaptive Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in India: Local, Gradual, and Trigger-based Exit Paths from Lockdown (Working Paper No. 27532; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27532
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Though important, social distancing could be reduced to one metre instead of 2m
Take away: As with most things in nature, there are always exceptions – transmission occurring at greater distances than 3 ft and evidence of aerosolization have been reported.
Discussion: In scientific terms, this virus is still very new so the data supporting an optimal physical distance to prevent transmission remains scarce. In the absence of data, public health agencies have used what they understand about this virus and similar viruses to infer a “best” answer. Public health agencies try to simplify the recommendation to a single answer, but the reality is much more complex.
According to reports the WHO bases their recommendation for 1 meter (~3 ft) distancing off of an understanding that SARS-CoV-2 behaves like similar respiratory viruses that are primarily transmitted via larger droplets (as opposed to smaller aerosols). Assuming most spread is via droplets, the WHO reportedly follows the results of a 1934 study indicating most respiratory droplets fall to the ground within 3 feet.
However, as with most things in nature, there are always exceptions – transmission occurring at greater distances than 3 ft and evidence of aerosolization have been reported.
The evidence basis for the CDCs guidance for 6 feet of separation is less clear, but probably reflects lower risk tolerance, or greater weight to evidence of aerosolization or wider droplet spread.
Even with further study, there may never be a clear answer for optimal physical distancing. This is because, (1) the area of high risk for transmission is probably dependent on the specific conditions of the interaction (e.g. loud talking, windy environment), and (2) the “optimal” distance is based on risk tolerance. There is no single distance between individuals where risk of transmission drops off precipitously to zero.
All evidence indicates that greater distances are safer but, for example, consider how restrictive a physical distancing recommendation of >50 ft would be. In the end, because we can’t control how far others stand away from us, we ask governments to consider these tradeoffs and deliver a “best” answer to guide their citizenry.
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Br, F., & mayr. (n.d.). Trusting the experts takes more than belief – Humanities & Social Change. Retrieved 8 August 2020, from https://hscif.org/trusting-the-experts-takes-more-than-belief/
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Fetzer, T. R., Witte, M., Hensel, L., Jachimowicz, J., Haushofer, J., Ivchenko, A., Caria, S., Reutskaja, E., Roth, C. P., Fiorin, S., Gómez, M., Kraft-Todd, G., Götz, F. M., & Yoeli, E. (2020). Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27082; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27082
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Lin, Z., & Meissner, C. M. (2020). Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19 (Working Paper No. 27099; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27099
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-In-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13262/
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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An Economic Model of the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13265/
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debunkingdenialism.com debunkingdenialism.com
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Sweden Did Not Take Herd Immunity Approach Against Coronavirus Pandemic. (2020, July 29). Debunking Denialism. https://debunkingdenialism.com/2020/07/29/sweden-did-not-take-herd-immunity-approach-against-coronavirus-pandemic/
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Covid State of Play: Jonathan Zittrain & Margaret Bourdeaux with Beth Cameron & KJ Seung. (2020, July 29). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVn9kn88C_Q
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Coronavirus: Can kids spread COVID-19? Your questions answered. (n.d.). Indystar. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/07/17/coronavirus-can-kids-spread-covid-19-spreadquestions-answered/5450062002/
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- COVID-19
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- lang:en
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Chatam House (2020) We may have a vaccine in the next 12 months...And already we are seeing the rise of an anti-vaccination movement. Retrieved from: https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1289219157968293889
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Dave, D. M., Friedson, A. I., Matsuzawa, K., & Sabia, J. J. (2020). When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time (Working Paper No. 27091; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27091
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Barlow, Pepita, Rachel Loopstra, Valerie Tarasuk, and Aaron Reeves. “Liberal Trade Policy and Food Insecurity across the Income Distribution: An Observational Analysis in 132 Countries, 2014–17.” The Lancet Global Health 8, no. 8 (August 1, 2020): e1090–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30263-1.
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Lewis, D. (2020). Mounting evidence suggests coronavirus is airborne—But health advice has not caught up. Nature, 583(7817), 510–513. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02058-1
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osf.io osf.io
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La, V.-P., Pham, T.-H., Ho, T. M., Hoàng, N. M., Linh, N. P. K., Vuong, T.-T., Nguyen, H.-K. T., Tran, T., Van Quy, K., Ho, T. M., & Vuong, Q.-H. (2020). Policy response, social media and science journalism for the sustainability of the public health system amid the COVID-19 outbreak: The Vietnam lessons [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/cfw8x
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osf.io osf.io
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Azim, S. S., roy, arindam, Aich, A., & Dey, D. (2020). Fake news in the time of environmental disaster: Preparing framework for COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wdr5v
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A Path to Reproductive Justice: Research, Practice and Policies. (2020, July 15). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YYQ_bKQij0&feature=emb_logo
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docs.google.com docs.google.com
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COVID-19 Social Science Tracker - Google Sheets
Tags
- community
- COVID-19
- is:other
- social science
- infection
- lang:en
- behavior
- preprint
- data collection
- tracker
- misinformation
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- unofficial
- spreadsheet
- medicine
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- healthcare
- conspiracy theory
- international
- government
- social norm
- social distancing
- sheets
- social media
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- research
- isolation
- uncertainty
- mental health
Annotators
URL
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Racism: The Ultimate Underlying Condition. (2020, June 18). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cozo8lj_RTA&feature=emb_logo
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www.apha.org www.apha.org
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APHA. (n.d.) Advancing Racial Equity Webinar Series. https://www.apha.org/racial-equity
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Motta, M., & Jansa, J. (2020). Concern About COVID-19 & Support for Universal Vote by Mail. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yatjc
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osf.io osf.io
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Heap, S. H., Koop, C., Matakos, K., Unan, A., & Weber, N. S. (2020). COVID-19 and people’s health-wealth preferences: Information effects and policy implications [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/mz67j
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. (2020, June 23). Webinar: COVID-19 pandemic – an opportunity or barrier to health as a bridge for peace?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNurBUky8s0
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www.blogto.com www.blogto.com
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Toronto to remain in Stage 2 of reopening while much of the province moves on to Stage 3. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2020, from https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/07/toronto-stage-2-reopening-province-stage-3/
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UCL-Lancet Lecture 2020: Global Health Preparedness in the Face of Emerging Epidemics. (2020, July 13). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqE48fmyRkw&feature=youtu.be
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Walawalkar, A. (2020, July 11). Boris Johnson urged to clarify message on wearing face masks in shops. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/11/boris-johnson-urged-to-clarify-message-on-wearing-face-masks-in-shops
Tags
- advice
- rule
- COVID-19
- lang:en
- Boris Johnson
- is:news
- UK
- government
- restriction
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- communication
- public health
- face mask
- policy
Annotators
URL
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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COVID-19 and Implications for Europe. (2020, May 17). FSI Stanford. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrbiBp--BuU
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www.commonwealthfund.org www.commonwealthfund.org
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Pavela Banai, I., Banai, B., & Mikloušić, I. (2020, July 14). Beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories predict lower level of compliance with the preventive measures both directly and indirectly by lowering trust in government medical officials. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/yevq7
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twitter.com twitter.com
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osf.io osf.io
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Méndez, P. F. (2020). Blue uncertainty: Warding off systemic risks in the Anthropocene – Lessons from COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z2br5
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osf.io osf.io
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Hossain, M. M., McKyer, E. L. J., & Ma, P. (2020). Applications of artificial intelligence technologies on mental health research during COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/w6c9b
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osf.io osf.io
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Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S. A., Kotcher, J., Bergquist, P., Ballew, M. T., Goldberg, M. H., Gustafson, A., & Wang, X. (2020). Climate change in the American Mind: April 2020 [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8439q
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osf.io osf.io
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Breznau, N. (2020). The Welfare State and Risk Perceptions: The Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and Public Concern in 70 Countries. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/96fd2
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www.timesofisrael.com www.timesofisrael.com
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staff, T. O. I. (n.d.). Over 20 more schools closed as Israel sees largest daily virus rise in a month. Retrieved July 4, 2020, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-20-more-schools-closed-as-israel-sees-largest-daily-virus-rise-in-a-month/
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Godlee, F. (2020). Covid 19: Where’s the strategy for testing? BMJ, 369. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2518
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Okabe-Miyamoto, K., Folk, D. P., Lyubomirsky, S., & Dunn, E. W. (2020). Changes in Social Connection During COVID-19 Social Distancing: It’s Not (Household) Size That Matters, It’s Who You’re With [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zdq6y
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Brik, A. B. (2020). COVID 19 FAMILY LIFE STUDY [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/gcqhp
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Cameron, E. E., Joyce, K., Delaquis, C., Reynolds, K., Protudjer, J., & Roos, L. E. (2020). Maternal Psychological Distress & Mental Health Services Use during the COVID-19 Pandemic [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/a53zb
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royalsociety.org royalsociety.org
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DELVE group publishes evidence paper on the use of face masks in tackling Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic | Royal Society. (2020 May 04). https://royalsociety.org/news/2020/05/delve-group-publishes-evidence-paper-on-use-of-face-masks/
Tags
- management
- SAGE
- COVID-19
- infection
- lang:en
- is:webpage
- droplet
- evidence
- publication
- public health
- face mask
- transmission reduction
- asymptomatic
- behavioral change
- social distancing
- learning
- Royal Society
- DELVE
- Data Evaluation and Learning for Viral Epidemics
- policy
- physical distancing
Annotators
URL
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behavioralscientist.org behavioralscientist.org
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Gauri, V. (2020 April 30). Behavioral Public Policy Faces a Crisis. Behavioral Scientist. https://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-public-policy-faces-a-crisis/
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econpapers.repec.org econpapers.repec.org
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Campos-Mercade, Pol, Armando Meier, Florian Schneider, and Erik Wengström. “Prosociality Predicts Health Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Department of Economics - University of Zurich, May 2020. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zur:econwp:346.
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ncs-tf.ch ncs-tf.ch
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Swiss National COVID-19 Sceince Task Force. Policy Briefs. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2020, from https://ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-briefs
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ncs-tf.ch ncs-tf.ch
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Swiss National COVID-19 Science Task Force. Policy Briefs. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2020, from https://ncs-tf.ch/fr/policy-briefs
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Phillips, T. (2020, June 14). “The country is adrift”: Echoes of Spanish flu as Brazil’s Covid-19 catastrophe deepens. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/brazil-coronavirus-spanish-flu
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Abu-Akel, A., Spitz, A., & West, R. (2020). THE FAUCI EFFECT: PUBLIC HEALTH MESSAGING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/naxf3
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Hern, A. (2020, June 8). People who think they have had Covid-19 ‘less likely to download contact-tracing app.’ The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/08/people-who-think-they-have-had-covid-19-less-likely-to-download-contact-tracing-app
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spiral.imperial.ac.uk spiral.imperial.ac.uk
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Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Dorigatti, I., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Green, W., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Okell, L., Van Elsland, S., … Ghani, A. (2020). Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. In 20 [Report]. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482
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Madsen, J. K. (2020). Trustworthiness of Doctors from Public Health Campaigns [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zhw6j
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Sjåstad, H., Teigen, K. H., & Van Bavel, J. J. (2020, June 5). The best-case heuristic in risk prediction: Hopes and fears in a global health pandemic (COVID-19). https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/pcj4f
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- May 2020
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www.covidcrisislab.unibocconi.eu www.covidcrisislab.unibocconi.euAbout us1
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About us. (n.d.). Retrieved May 5, 2020, from /wps/wcm/connect/Site/CovidCrisisLab/Home/About+us
Tags
- consequence
- COVID-19
- economy
- legal
- lab
- is:webpage
- lang:en
- research
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- healthcare
- population
- financial
- society
- crisis
- laboratory
- health
- implication
- policy
Annotators
URL
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Arenas, A., Cota, W., Gomez-Gardenes, J., Gomez, S., Granell, C., Matamalas, J. T., Soriano-Panos, D., & Steinegger, B. (2020). Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20054320
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jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
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Cutler, D. M., Nikpay, S., & Huckman, R. S. (2020). The Business of Medicine in the Era of COVID-19. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.7242
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Hargreaves, J., Davey, C., Hargreaves, J., Davey, C., Auerbach, J., Blanchard, J., Bond, V., Bonell, C., Burgess, R., Busza, J., Colbourn, T., Cowan, F., Doyle, A., Hakim, J., Hensen, B., Hosseinipour, M., Lin, L., Johnson, S., Masuka, N., … Yekeye, R. (2020). Three lessons for the COVID-19 response from pandemic HIV. The Lancet HIV, S2352301820301107. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(20)30110-7
Tags
- quarentine
- COVID-19
- infection
- inequality
- school closure
- lang:en
- behavior
- trajectory
- vaccine
- gender
- poverty
- prediction
- socioeconomic status
- government
- response
- health system
- is:article
- collective behavior
- social distancing
- policy
- HIV
- health equity
- physical distancing
- pharmaceutical
Annotators
URL
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Ford, J. (2020, April 15). The battle at the heart of British science over coronavirus | Free to read. https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
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www.prospectmagazine.co.uk www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
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Rusbridger, Alan. ‘Sage Coronavirus Expert: We’ve Had an Epidemic That to Some Degree Could Have Been Avoided’. Accessed 29 May 2020. https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/science-and-technology/alan-rusbridger-sage-jeremy-farrar-covid-19-coronavirus-dominic-cummings-herd-immunity.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Mancini, A. D. (2020, May 28). Heterogeneous Mental Health Consequences of COVID-19: Costs and Benefits. https://doi.org/10.1037/tra0000894
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nypost.com nypost.com
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That’s why the escape hatch is so appealing. Self-insured companies can tailor their health benefits to meet the needs of their workers. They don’t have to pay for services their employees neither need nor want. And self-insured plans pay their own medical costs, without having to subsidize the health-care costs of other groups.
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The administration and its allies fear that the more people gravitate toward the successful, free-market self-insurance approach, the worse their government-engineered health “reform” will look. We’re already seeing the beginning of this trend.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Stieger, S., Lewetz, D., & Swami, V. (2020). Psychological Well-Being Under Conditions of Lockdown: An Experience Sampling Study in Austria During the COVID-19 Pandemic [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qjhfp
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Schwalbe, N., & Wahl, B. (2020). Artificial intelligence and the future of global health. The Lancet, 395(10236), 1579–1586. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30226-9
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Johnson, N.F., Velásquez, N., Restrepo, N.J. et al. The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views. Nature (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2281-1
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Jordana, J., & Triviño-Salazar, J. C. (2020). Where are the ECDC and the EU-wide responses in the COVID-19 pandemic? The Lancet, S0140673620311326. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31132-6
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Vespignani, A., Tian, H., Dye, C. et al. Modelling COVID-19. Nat Rev Phys (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-020-0178-4
Tags
- superspreading
- quarentine
- COVID-19
- epidemiology
- infection
- lang:en
- China
- open data
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- modeling
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- mathematics
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- contact tracing
- is:article
- war time
- transmission dynamics
- complex network
- emergency
- antibody testing
- isolation
- policy
- computational modeling
- pharmaceutical
Annotators
URL
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www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
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Bento, A. I., Nguyen, T., Wing, C., Lozano-Rojas, F., Ahn, Y.-Y., & Simon, K. (2020). Evidence from internet search data shows information-seeking responses to news of local COVID-19 cases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 202005335. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2005335117
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www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com
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A flood of coronavirus apps are tracking us. Now it’s time to keep track of them. (n.d.). MIT Technology Review. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/07/1000961/launching-mittr-covid-tracing-tracker/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Li, A., Zhou, L., Su, Q., Cornelius, S. P., Liu, Y.-Y., Wang, L., & Levin, S. A. (2020). Evolution of cooperation on temporal networks. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16088-w
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ballew, M. T., Bergquist, P., Goldberg, M., Gustafson, A., Kotcher, J., Marlon, J. R., … Leiserowitz, A. (2020, April 20). American Public Responses to COVID-19, April 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qud5t
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ebrahimi, O. V., Hoffart, A., & Johnson, S. U. (2020). The mental health impact of non-pharmacological interventions aimed at impeding viral transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic in a general adult population and the factors associated with adherence to these mitigation strategies [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kjzsp
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Gollwitzer, M., Platzer, C., Zwarg, C., & Göritz, A. S. (2020, April 14). Public Acceptance of Potential Covid-19 Lockdown Scenarios. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3a85z
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Djalante, R., Lassa, J., Nurhidayah, L., Van Minh, H., Mahendradhata, Y., Phuong, N. T. N., … Sinapoy, M. S. (2020, May 2). The ASEAN’s responses to COVID-19: A policy sciences analysis. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/8347d
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- Apr 2020
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www.nationalelfservice.net www.nationalelfservice.net
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Mental health COVID-19: Research priorities. (2020, April 27). National Elf Service. https://www.nationalelfservice.net/mental-health/mental-health-covid-19/
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Etilé, F., Johnston, D., Frijters, P., & Shields, M. (2020, April 16). Psychological Resilience to Major Socioeconomic Life Events. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/vp48c
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Fetzer, T., Witte, M., Hensel, L., Jachimowicz, J., Haushofer, J., Ivchenko, A., … Yoeli, E. (2020, April 16). Global Behaviors and Perceptions in the COVID-19 Pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3kfmh
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www.picturinghealth.org www.picturinghealth.org
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Picturing Health. Films about coronavirus (COVID-19). picturinghealth.org/coronavirus-films/
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Wang, T., Chen, X., Zhang, Q., & Jin, X. (2020, April 26). Use of Internet data to track Chinese behavior and interest in COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/j6m8q
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Dorison, C., Lerner, J. S., Heller, B. H., Rothman, A., Kawachi, I. I., Wang, K., … Coles, N. A. (2020, April 16). A global test of message framing on behavioural intentions, policy support, information seeking, and experienced anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/sevkf
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bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com
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Whitty, C. J. M. (2015). What makes an academic paper useful for health policy? BMC Medicine, 13(1), 301. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-015-0544-8
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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McKee, M., Stuckler, D. If the world fails to protect the economy, COVID-19 will damage health not just now but also in the future. Nat Med (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0863-y
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Hall, K. S., Samari, G., Garbers, S., Casey, S. E., Diallo, D. D., Orcutt, M., Moresky, R. T., Martinez, M. E., & McGovern, T. (2020). Centring sexual and reproductive health and justice in the global COVID-19 response. The Lancet, 395(10231), 1175–1177. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30801-1
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Kutscher, C. (2020 April 8). The Coronavirus and Climate Change: How we're making the same mistakes. Medium. https://medium.com/@chuck.kutscher/the-coronavirus-and-climate-change-how-were-making-the-same-mistakes-2cd01cce2295
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Viner, R. M., et al. (2020 April 06). School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review. The Lancet. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30095-X.
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Weale, S. (2020 April 07). School closures likely to have little impact on spread of coronavirus, study finds. The Guardian. Education. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/06/school-closures-have-little-impact-on-spread-of-coronavirus-study?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586214038.
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Horton, R. (2020). Offline: COVID-19—bewilderment and candour. The Lancet, 395(10231), 1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30850-3
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Gao, S., Rao, J., Kang, Y., Liang, Y., & Kruse, J. (2020). Mapping county-level mobility pattern changes in the United States in response to COVID-19. ArXiv:2004.04544 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04544
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www.nesta.org.uk www.nesta.org.uk
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Baeck, P., Bone, J., Old, R. (2020 April 09). Crowdfunding in a crisis Nesta. https://www.nesta.org.uk/blog/crowdfunding-crisis/
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www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com
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Rotman, D. (2020 April 8). Stop covid or save the economy? We can do both. MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
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www.euro.who.int www.euro.who.int
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WHO tool for behavioural insights on COVID-19. (2020, April 9). World Health Organization. http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-technical-guidance/who-tool-for-behavioural-insights-on-covid-19
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Annotators
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www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk
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Dolan, P. P. (n.d.). What is the true cost of the coronavirus lockdown? | The Spectator. Retrieved April 14, 2020, from https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/What-is-the-true-cost-of-the-coronavirus-lockdown
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sciencebusiness.net sciencebusiness.net
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Viewpoint: COVID-19, open science, and a ‘red alert’ health indicator. (n.d.). Science|Business. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://sciencebusiness.net/viewpoint/viewpoint-covid-19-open-science-and-red-alert-health-indicator
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oxfordmedicine.com oxfordmedicine.com
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Bernheim, R. G. (n.d.). Public Engagement in Emergency Preparedness and Response: Ethical Perspectives in Public Health Practice. In Emergency Ethics. Oxford University Press. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://oxfordmedicine.com/view/10.1093/med/9780190270742.001.0001/med-9780190270742-chapter-5
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- Nov 2019
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www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
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It needs to be fully repealed, because the first step out of the gate for Obamacare is a step in the wrong direction and that is for government control over every aspect of health care, so it’s hard to fix the system that they have put in place without ending that premise that government ought to be running and controlling health care.
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- Nov 2018
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blogs.wgbh.org blogs.wgbh.org
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Polls show that doctors are trusted by the public more than politicians, which means it’s hard for public policy to shape the healthcare system unless medical associations sign off on it.
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